ABC BullishMarch 2021 Continuous Contract
Possible stop below C or last pivot low
Not a recommendation
KC1! trade ideas
Weekly coffee market review 12/07/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE
Last week, ICE US coffee futures closed lower at 117.55 ct/lb.
The National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia reported that the country's coffee production for November was 63,000 bags, 4.18% less than the same month last year, for a total of 1,443,000 bags. She also reported that the country's coffee exports for November were 109,000 bags, 9.38% more than the same month last year, for a total of 1,271,000 bags.
Arabica coffee almost erased the increase of the previous week. Fears that the crop in Central America will be affected are now over.
Arabica coffee prices had benefited from concerns about Robusta coffee supply. Vietnam, the largest producer of this type of coffee, experienced very heavy rains after the passage of several typhoons, raising fears of a smaller crop. The worst of the storms have now passed, weather conditions are better and the harvest is very active.
In Brazil, forecasts for the next harvest are still on the decline due to the effects of drought. Rainfall in the Brazilian coffee belt this summer and also in October and November has been below normal.
Internationally, last week was marked by the sharp fall of the dollar. The DXY, after breaking through the resistance of the 92, is heading towards the 90, and the Euro was close to $1.22 after disappointing US empoi figures. Hopes for a vaccine, the FED reaffirming that the priority remains to support the economy, and the joint Democratic and Republican proposal for a $908 billion emergency plan are driving equity markets. Curiously, commodities as a whole did not benefit from the dollar's decline.
Discussions between the British and the Europeans continue as the December 31 deadline approaches in the hope of reaching a post-brexit trade agreement. Regarding the pandemic update, we have just passed the 67 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.537 million deaths. The United States continues to be the most affected country with more than 282,000 deaths and more than 14.7 million cases. Italy has passed the 60,000 death mark, and the United States is facing a spectacular rebound of the epidemic with more than 230,000 cases in 24 hours on Saturday. The United Kingdom, the first country to authorize Pfizer vaccine, begins vaccination on Tuesday.
WEATHER IN BRAZIL
90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana.
The rainy season has started and lasts until April-May. Rainfall was below normal in October in the Brazilian coffee belt. Rainfall was also lower in November. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. Last week's rains were also below normal. Next week, heavy rains are expected in Minas Gerais.
ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS
Coffee stocks are up to 1.294 million 60 Kg bags, compared to 1.245 last week. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a range of foreign currencies closed last week down to 90.701, and the trend is still bearish. The DXY after breaking the 92 resistance, plunged last week and is on its way to the 90. The Euro rose as high as 1.2175 on Friday after very disappointing U.S. employment figures. As a backdrop, Powell said the priority remains to support the economy, and Democrats and Republicans are working together on a $908 billion emergency support proposal as a first step. For later, once the Joe biden administration is in place, work for a more substantial plan. Forex traders are anticipating an increase in the money supply.
Last week, the Brazilian Real closed sharply higher at 0.1935. The Dollar weakened against most currencies and the Brazilian Real took advantage of this in recent weeks, breaking the bearish vanal it was in. If the Dollar's downtrend remains unchanged, the Real will surely test the 0.20 it has not reached since June. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A low Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers and encourages them to export.
COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS
The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators).
The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe.
The speculative net position on the coffee futures markets is up this week to 32.265 K instead of 30.616 K.
Coffee - SHORT - MEDIUM - LONG TERM BUY SIGNALS - LONGCOFFEE is starting to approach the Kondratieff cycle.
3 TARGETS for different time frames:
1) CUP&HANDLE - SHORT TERM --> TARGET 1: 142
2) REVERSE H&S - MEDIUM TERM --> TARGET 2: 182
3 REVERSE H6S - LONG TERM --> TARGET 3: 283
Coffee market review 12/02/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE
Yesterday, ICE US coffee futures closed down sharply - 3.93% to 118.45 ct/lb.
In 3 days, Arabica coffee almost erases Friday's 6% rise. According to the latest reports, the passage of Hurricane Iota did not cause much damage to the coffee crop, with at most small delays. Fears that the crop in Central America will be affected are now over. Countries such as Honduras and Guatemala are important producers of Arabica coffee with 5.6 and 3.4 million bags of production respectively.
Despite the extensive destruction in the northern islands of Colombia, the country has not suffered any production losses either. Colombia is the 2nd largest producer of Arabica coffee in the world with approximately 14 million bags.
The price of Arabica coffee had also benefited recently from concerns about the supply of Robusta coffee. Vietnam, the largest producer of this type of coffee, experienced very heavy rains after the passage of several typhoons, leading to fears of a smaller harvest. The worst of the storms have now passed, and the USDA's forecast increase in Indonesian Robusta production should offset the reduction in Vietnamese supply.
In Brazil, the forecast for the next crop is still down due to the effects of drought. Rainfall in the Brazilian coffee belt this summer and also in October and November has been below normal. Brazil is the world's largest producer of Arabica coffee.
As Arabica coffee trees are on a biannual cycle of small and large harvests, the next crop will be smaller anyway.
Internationally, the prospect of Janet Yellen, former FED president, serving as Secretary of the Treasury in Joe Biden's future administration, and the hope of a vaccine is fuelling markets. Many countries are preparing vaccination campaigns. England is the first country to license Pfizer's vaccine, and the vaccination campaign will begin next week. Investors are also anticipating a massive stimulus package, with increased government spending, which is weakening the dollar. On Tuesday, the DXY fell back below 92, after Steven Mnuchin and Jerome Powell assured that the priority remains supporting the economy. The dollar's slide was further exacerbated by the joint Democratic and Republican proposal for an emergency support package of $908 billion. The dollar is still low and in a bearish trend, the DXY closed at 91.190.
While waiting for a vaccine, the pandemic continues unabated, with more than 64 million cases worldwide and more than 1.483 million deaths. The United States is the most affected country with more than 270,000 deaths and more than 13.7 million cases.
WEATHER IN BRAZIL
90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana.
The rainy season has started and lasts until April-May. Rainfall was below normal in October in the Brazilian coffee belt. Rainfall was also lower in November. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. Last week's rains were again below normal, which partly explains the more than 6% increase in Arabica coffee prices on Friday. According to forecasts, next week there will be a 70% chance and more of receiving rainfall above 50 mm.
ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS
Coffee stocks are up to 1.260 million 60 Kg bags, up from 1.244 yesterday. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week down to 91.190, and the trend is still bearish. The DXY Index representing the USD against a basket of foreign currencies closed yesterday at 91.190, and the trend is still bearish. On Tuesday, the DXY fell back below 92, after Steven Mnuchin and Jerome Powell said the priority remains to support the economy. The fall of the dollar was accentuated with the joint proposal of the Democrats and Republicans for an emergency support proposal of $908 billion. Forex traders anticipate an increase in the money supply.
Yesterday, the Brazilian Real closed higher at 0.1910. The Brazilian Real has benefited in recent weeks from the weak Dollar, but the underlying trend of the Real is still bearish and historically low. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A weak Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers, and encourages them to export.
Weekly coffee market review 11/30/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE
Last week, ICE US coffee futures closed sharply higher at 124.30 ct/lb. Arabica coffee ended the week up 6% on Friday with a combination of factors, concerns about the upcoming Brazilian and Vietnamese Robusta crops, a weak dollar benefiting commodities, and hopes for a vaccine.
Hurricane Iota hit Central America and Honduras, a major coffee-producing region. Colombian production is expected to remain stable at 14.1 million bags.
The price of Arabica coffee also benefited from concerns about the supply of Robusta coffee. Vietnam, the largest producer of this type of coffee, experienced very heavy rains following the passage of several typhoons, leading to fears of a smaller harvest and smaller bean sizes. Vietnam exported 70,000 tons of coffee in November, down 37.5% from the previous year, according to government data released Sunday.
In Brazil, forecasts for the next harvest are still down due to the effects of drought. Rainfall in the Brazilian coffee belt this summer and also in October and November has been below normal. Brazil is the world's largest producer of Arabica coffee.
As Arabica coffee trees are on a biannual cycle of small and large harvests, the next crop will be smaller anyway.
Internationally, the prospect of Janet Yellen, former FED president, serving as Secretary of the Treasury in Joe Biden's future administration, and the hope of a vaccine is fuelling markets. Many countries are preparing vaccination campaigns. Investors are also anticipating a massive stimulus package, with increased government spending that weakens the dollar. The dollar is still low and in a downward trend, the DXY closes at 91.790.
While waiting for a vaccine, the pandemic is not weakening. We have just passed 62 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.460 million deaths. The United States is the most affected country with more than 267,000 deaths and more than 13 million cases.
WEATHER IN BRAZIL
90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana.
The rainy season has started and lasts until April-May. Rainfall was below normal in October in the Brazilian coffee belt. And, as can be seen below, on the 30-day weather maps, rainfall was also lower in November. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. Last week's rains were again below normal, which partly explains the more than 6% increase in Arabica coffee prices on Friday. According to forecasts, next week there will be a 70% chance and more of receiving rainfall above 50 mm.
ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS
Coffee stocks are up to 1.245 million 60 kg bags, compared to 1.236 million bags the previous week. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a range of foreign currencies closed last week down to 91.790, and the trend is still bearish. This is the first close below the 92 resistance level in almost 2 1/2 years. The presumed appointment of Janet Yellen as U.S. Treasury Secretary and Joe Biden's talk of a massive $3 trillion support package weighed on the Dollar. Forex traders are anticipating an increase in the money supply. In addition, U.S. unemployment figures, consumer confidence indexes and inflation figures disappointed last week.
Last week, the Brazilian Real closed slightly higher at 0.1872. The Brazilian Real has been benefiting from the weak Dollar in recent weeks, but the underlying trend of the Real is still bearish and historically low. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A weak Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers, and encourages them to export.
MY FIRST CONTRIBUTIONIT SEEMS TO ME COFFEE COULD HAVE A SMALL RISE, EVEN THOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY LOWER TO GET MORE STRENGTH UP.
Weekly coffee market review 11/23/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE
Last week, ICE US coffee futures closed higher at 118.05 ct/lb.
Hopes for a vaccine are fuelling the markets, and Pfizer and Moderna have announced very encouraging results. Many countries, such as the United States, Germany, Spain, and others, are already preparing vaccination campaigns. The pandemic continues unabated, with more than 58 million cases worldwide and more than 1.382 million deaths. The United States is the most affected country with more than 256,000 deaths and more than 12 million cases.
The hope of a vaccine, as well as the prospects of a massive stimulus package, is driving the markets. The dollar is still low and in a downward trend, the DXY closes at 92.392.
The end of the year marks the arrival of production from Central American countries. Last week, the powerful Hurricane Iota hit Central America and Honduras, an important coffee producing region. Colombian production is expected to remain stable at 14.1 million bags, thanks to the replanting of rust resistant coffee trees. 83% of Colombia's total area would have been renewed with these varieties.
The price of Arabica coffee is also benefiting from concerns about the supply of Robusta coffee. Vietnam, the largest producer of this type of coffee, is encountering very heavy rains following the passage of several typhoons, causing fears of a smaller harvest and smaller bean sizes.
In Brazil, forecasts for the next harvest are still down due to the effects of the drought this summer, particularly in Minas Gerais. Rainfall in the Brazilian coffee belt in October was below normal, and also in November after 3 weeks. In addition, Arabica coffee trees are on a biannual cycle of small and large harvests, so the next crop will be smaller anyway.
According to the International Coffee Organization, world coffee exports in 2019/20 fell by 4.9% to 126.9 million bags. Production in 2019/20 is estimated at 168.84 million bags, down 2.5%, and consumption fell by 0.9% to 167.59 million bags. This would lead to a surplus of 1.24 million bags.
WEATHER IN BRAZIL
90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana.
Rainfall was below normal in October in the Brazilian coffee belt. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. The rainy season has now begun. Last week the rains were below normal. It fell about 50 mm. After 3 weeks, the rainfall over the month of November is still below normal. According to the forecast, next week the rains will also be below normal, with only 20-30% chance of rainfall above 50 mm.
ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS
Coffee stocks are up to 1.236 million bags of 60 Kg, compared to 1.198 the previous week. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a range of foreign currencies closed last week down to 92.392, and the trend is still bearish. Joe Biden, who will be invested on January 20, spoke of a $3 trillion support plan. Forex traders are anticipating an increase in the money supply. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has called on the FED to return unused funds from emergency aid programs for the coronavirus crisis. The FED has decided to do so, although it considers this decision premature. Last week, this did not cause much movement in the currency market, which remained relatively calm.
The previous week, the Brazilian Real closed higher at 0.1855. The fall of the Dollar benefits the Real. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A weak Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers and encourages them to export.
COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS
The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators).
The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe.
The speculative net position on the coffee futures markets is down this week to 24.006 K instead of 28.021 K.
Target to enter a long position in Coffee With La Nina still rocking Brazil Long Coffee could have big potential, previously posted about buying the 3y support just below 100, that did not happen low was 102 and we since that low had a $20 rally.
My entry target is 50% Fib which also match 60 Day MA.
COFFEE: a correction is looming. Short then buy or wait for longIn recent years, the price of coffee has fluctuated between 90/100 and 130/140. It's a nice oscillator. Currently we're in uptrend. After the initial impulse price slows down and is approaching 122 level where correction usually occurs. I expect drop to 115-116 then continuation to at least 130, maybe to 132 (strong resistance) or even 135 (AB=CD & top from the last Summer).
Using 1D and 4H charts, wait for a signal that the price is turning back. Ignore lower time frames. Good luck.
Remember: if you are opening long positions in commodities, check the terms of your broker. Sometimes, if you do not close your position before the maturity of the contract, you may have to buy the goods and pay for shipment. Short positions are always safe.
ABC BullishContinuous Contract March 2021
Possible stop below 102.10
Possible T2 150.7 to 163
Good luck
Just an observation
Weekly coffee market 11/16/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE
Last week, ICE US coffee futures closed higher at 112.20 ct/lb.
Hopes for a vaccine are fuelling the markets, Moderna announced on Monday very encouraging results. The pandemic continues unabated, we have just surpassed 54 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.320 million deaths. Faced with the second wave, Europe has been confined. The United States is the most affected country with more than 246,000 deaths and more than 11 million cases, and is also taking restrictive measures such as in New Jersey and Michigan.
The end of the year marks the arrival of production from Central American countries, or Colombia, which adds downward pressure to the market.
Arabica coffee production in Colombia amounted to 1.159 million 60-kg bags, down 15% in October, compared to 2019.
In Brazil, forecasts for the next harvest are down due to the effects of drought this summer, particularly in Minas Gerais.
According to the International Coffee Organization, world coffee exports in 2019/20 fell by 4.9% to 126.9 million bags. Production in 2019/20 is estimated at 168.84 million bags, down 2.5%, and consumption is estimated to fall by 0.9% to 167.59 million bags. This would lead to a surplus of 1.24 million bags.
The price of Arabica coffee is also benefiting from concerns about the supply of Robusta coffee. Indeed, Vietnam, the largest producer of this type of coffee, is experiencing very heavy rainfall following the passage of several typhoons, which makes harvesting difficult and threatens to damage the crop.
WEATHER IN BRAZIL
90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana.
Rainfall was below normal in October in the Brazilian coffee belt. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. The rainy season has now begun. Last week the rains were below normal. It fell by 25 to 50 mm. According to the forecast, next week the rains will be in line with normal with a probability of more than 50 mm.
ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS
Coffee stocks are up to 1.198 million 60 kg bags, compared to 1.170 the previous week. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week up to 92.755, after a sharp decline in early November. The U.S. elections will continue to bring volatility to the currency market. Joe Biden will be sworn in on January 20, the Senate remains Republican for now, but a second round will be held on January 5 in Georgia. There is still a lot of uncertainty about the size and date of the famous plan to support the American economy. The Fed has announced that it will increase its "firepower" if necessary. Forex traders therefore anticipate an increase in the money supply.
The pandemic is not weakening, Europe has reconfirmed itself in the face of the second wave, the United States is also taking new measures of restrictions in some states. The hope of a vaccine, with the announcement of Pfizer, calms the markets and prevents for the moment the dollar from playing its role as a safe haven. Caution is still called for, however, as many questions about vaccines remain unanswered. The dollar has a strong influence on the price of raw materials, and it will be very difficult to predict its evolution in the coming months.
Yesterday, the Brazilian Real closed lower at 0.1828. The Dollar's fall allowed the Brazilian Real to rebound. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A weak Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers, and encourages them to export.
I Recommend buying !ARABICA COFFEE will rise next days (weeks)
I Advais you to buy
Target 1 : 126.20 USD
Target 2 : 136.50 USD
Stoop Loss 116 usd
Weekly coffee market review 11/09/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE
Last week, ICE US coffee futures closed higher at 106.95 ct/lb.
The pandemic continues unabated, we have just passed 50 million cases worldwide, with over 1.250 million deaths. Faced with the 2nd wave, Europe is confining itself or imposing curfews. The United States is the first country to exceed 100,000 new cases in one day. Joe Biden wants to set up a crisis unit. In Europe, many non-essential businesses are closed such as bars and restaurants.
Bars and restaurants are places of high coffee consumption, and their closure in Europe will weigh on demand.
The end of the year marks the arrival of production from Central American countries, or Colombia, which adds downward pressure to the market.
According to the International Coffee Organization, world coffee exports in 2019/20 fell by 4.9% to 126.9 million bags. Production in 2019/20 is estimated at 168.84 million bags, down 2.5%, and consumption fell by 0.9% to 167.59 million bags. This would lead to a surplus of 1.24 million bags.
In the United States, Joe Biden will be sworn in on January 20, 2021, the Senate remains Republican for the time being, but there will be a second round in Georgia on January 05. If the Democrats win both seats, that would bring the distribution to 50-50 seats, and Vice President Kamala Harris could constitutionally break the tie. In the absence of a majority in the Senate, voting on a plan to support the U.S. economy would be made more difficult. This leaves uncertainty as to the timing and amount of the plan. Last week the Fed reaffirmed its willingness to support the US economy and is ready to "increase its firepower" if necessary. The dollar fell sharply, with the DXY dropping from over 94 at the beginning of last week to close Friday at 92.236, a drop that benefited all dollar-denominated commodities.
WEATHER IN BRAZIL
90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana.
Rainfall was below normal in October in the Brazilian coffee belt. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. The rainy season has now begun. Last week the rains were below normal. Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo received 50 mm, while further south Sao Paulo and Parana were drier. According to the forecast, next week the rains will be in line with normal with a probability of rainfall above 50 mm.
ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS
Coffee stocks are up to 1.170 million 60 kg bags compared to 1.129 last week. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week, down sharply at 92.236. The U.S. elections will continue to bring volatility to the currency market. Joe Biden will be sworn in January 20, the Senate remains Republican for now, but a second round will be needed in Georgia. Therefore, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the size and date of the famous plan to support the American economy.
Last week's statements by the FED certainly weighed heavily on the dollar. The FED announced that it could increase "its firepower" if necessary. Forex traders are therefore anticipating an increase in the money supply.
On Sunday, the United States experienced a record covid-19 for the 4th consecutive day, and even though the news was dominated by the elections, the pandemic could be remembered by investors if the US faces a 2nd wave similar to the one hitting Europe. A return of the dollar as a safe haven is not a possibility to be ignored. The dollar has a strong influence on the price of raw materials, and it will be very difficult to predict its evolution in the coming months.
A low dollar is generally favorable to the dollar-denominated commodity markets.
Last week, the Brazilian Real closed sharply higher at 0.1862, breaking Friday's 0.1750/0.1810 range in which it had been trading since the end of September. The fall of the Dollar allowed the Brazilian Real to rebound. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A weak Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers and encourages them to export.
COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS
The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators).
The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe.
The speculative net position on the coffee futures markets is down this week to 28,021 K instead of 35,421 K.
fundamental news on coffeeread this:
fortune.com
www.iandmsmith.com
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
if a strong 'la nina' weather event will happen coffee can maybe cross some resistances at 170 and ~200. The prediction is likely that this weather phenomenon will happen! Together with the weak coming crop cycle 2021 we will see a under-supply for the coming years - even if at the moment we have an oversupply of 5 mln bags -because of good crop cycle 2020 and less consumption because of covid19). In my opinion i would be careful with shorting KC1.
ABC BullishContinuous contract 12/20
Entry over long level with a confirmed uptrend
Possible stop below 103
Possible T2 151.5 to 161
Not a recommendation
Weekly coffee market review 11/02/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE
Last week, ICE US coffee futures closed lower at 104.35 ct/lb. The worsening health situation with a sharp increase in covid-19 cases in the USA and Europe has strongly impacted the markets last week. Due to the magnitude of the 2nd wave, Europe is reconfirming itself, this is the case of Ireland, Czech Republic, France, Germany, England, Portugal, Austria, and countries such as Spain or Italy and others are taking more and more drastic measures, such as curfews, closing bars and restaurants, or limiting people in meetings. The United States is seeing a record number of covid cases in the run-up to the election.
Bars and restaurants are places of high coffee consumption, and their closure in Europe will weigh on demand.
The International Coffee Organization (ICO) forecasts a surplus of 1.54 million bags for the 2019/20 season. The drought of the previous months will have an impact on the next harvest in Brazil even though the rains have now arrived.
The very low Real is benefiting Brazilian coffee exporters who are taking advantage of their increased competitiveness to flood the market. According to Reuters, 64% of Brazilian production has already been sold compared to the five-year average of 53%. The depreciation of the local currency increases producers' income from dollar-denominated products.
In the United States, the American election is scheduled for tomorrow, November 3, and tensions on the market are not excluded. Investors fear the possibility that Donald Trump may be declared a narrow loser and do not want to recognize the results, making the transition more complicated and delaying the vote on the long-awaited plan to support the US economy.
WEATHER IN BRAZIL
90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana.
Rainfall was below normal in October in the Brazilian coffee belt. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. The rainy season has now begun. Rainfall last week ranged from 50 to 100 mm.
ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS
Coffee stocks are up to 1.149 million bags of 60 Kg for 1.129 last week. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week up to 93.882. The 2nd epidemic wave is scaring the market and the Dollar seems to be playing its role as a safe-haven currency. The chances of a quick agreement on a plan to support the U.S. economy are now nil. We will have to wait now for the election result, and this is beneficial to the Dollar in the short term.
On the FED side, things will certainly remain frozen until the outcome of the American election. The FED has insisted on the need for a quick vote of a support plan, and assures that the key rates will remain permanently low.
Last week, the Brazilian Real closed lower at 0.1726. The trend is still bearish. The rise of the Dollar, which plays its role as a safe haven, is weighing on the Brazilian Real. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A weak Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers and encourages them to export.
COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS
The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators).
The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe.
The speculative net position on the coffee futures market is down this week to 35,421 K instead of 40,708 K.
COFFEE May Reverse! Here is Why:
coffee is extremely bearish since September.
we saw a sharp and strong decline during the last two month.
however, just recently the price has reached a major daily support level.
chances are high that we will see at least a pullback from that.
I am waiting for a 4H candle close above 107.1 level.
it is a horizontal neckline of an inverted h&s pattern.
after the breakout I will buy the market on retest.
goals:
110.65
113.0
(if neckline is respected and price drops below the head, setup will be invalid)
COFFEE REVERSE H&S PATTERN| TRADING PLAN|
COFFEE has reached a confluence of strong support lines, so I am looking for a long opportunity.
Now, we can see that there has been a breakout of the downwards channel resistance upwards
This breakout was also a breakout of the neckline of the reverse head and shoulders pattern.
Now, we are waiting for the 4h candle to close ABOVE the neckline and we are going long from the pullback.
Sl below the right shoulder high. Two take level are the two resistance levels that you can see on the chart.
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See you next time!
Weekly indicates further downside Bullish Coffee longer term "La Niña", target is still to buy the 100 level
MM long covered 2'502 contracts, now siting at 43'077
MM short added 4'723 contracts, now sitting at 23'339
RectangleA Rectangle is a continuation pattern that forms as a trading range during a pause in the trend. The pattern is easily identifiable by two comparable highs and two comparable lows. The highs and lows can be connected to form two parallel lines that make up the top and bottom of a rectangle.
Targets are listed for a brreak up from rectangle pattern with entry level at 136.3 with a clear uptrend
and a break down from rectangle at 97.25 in a clear downtrend
Mid Rectangle is possible stop either way it breaks
This can be a very long term pattern and some swing trade inside of the channel
Rectangles are sometimes referred to as trading ranges, consolidation zones or congestion areas.
Rectangles can extend for a few weeks or many months. If the pattern is less than 3 weeks, it is usually considered a flag, also a continuation pattern. Ideally, rectangles will develop over a 3-month period. Generally, the longer the pattern, the more significant the breakout. A 3-month pattern might be expected to fulfill its breakout projection. However, a 6-month pattern might be expected to exceed its breakout target.
The direction of the next significant move can only be determined after the breakout has occurred. As with the symmetrical triangle, rectangles are neutral patterns that are dependent on the direction of the future breakout. Volume patterns can sometimes offer clues, but there is no confirmation until an actual break above resistance or break below support.
Not a recommendation
