KC1! trade ideas
Coffee (KC); Let's get ready to break out those SHORTs ...... Again. Wait for it, tough! Let the U$D bottom vs. the Real, first, this being a pure currency play on the USD/BRL. (Fundamentals don't matter here; The market is balanced, nothing is happening - despite the occasional make-belief news flashes to the contrary.)
Made an awful lot of money on the way up here ;-) and now, it's time to cash in on the upcoming sell-off.
Soy, Sugar, Wheat, Coffee and LumberMany elements of the commodity complex, when a cycle starts after a coiled low point... it's hard to stop.
Still some fuel to run hot!
COFFEE (Continuation) LONG - Update; Just a USD/Real Short ...... and nothing more.
Coffee remains a pure currency play on the USD/Real. - And with the Central Bank of Brazil hiking rates faster than any other central bank, this is mostly a one-way trade going into the seasonal peak.
Fundamentally, there is no evidence (0, zilch, nada) that there would be any supply issues at present - despite popular misconceptions to the contrary.
Epic Trades, Legendary Traders. - A collection. Add your own...Add your own trades/finds in the comment section of Epic Trades , whether your own or one of the - preferably lesser know - feats.
Charts Only(!!) , please. (Comments go into the charts)
Here are a few to start it off;
All of the following trades were executed with >$1 Million US and lasted <12 months
Coffee exit at 0.618 extension, no re-entryLike on soybean oil my exit on coffee was the 0.618 extension the last correction range
Short team "KC" ArabicaResistance: 146.80
Support: 140
Some Ideal:
Short: 146.80
Stoploss: 148.80
Target 1: 144.50
Target 2: 142
Target 3: 140
COFFEE Will Fall From Resistance!Sell!
Hello,Traders!
COFFEE futures are now retesting the daily resistance level again
And I think there is a good chance for us to see a pullback
To retest the nearest local support
Sell!
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HIGHER FOOD PRICES!Coffee is one of the most consumed and traded commodities on earth, and it's price is about to explode!
FUNDAMENTALS:
-Despite quadrillions of currency units (DEMAND) created over the past 50 years, coffee prices are only slightly higher...this is because of the massive amount of coffee production around the world (SUPPLY) keeping a ceiling on prices. Debased fiat currencies (DEMAND) will prevent any significantly lower prices and make higher prices inevitable.
-Currency creation however is being ramped up to unprecedented levels (DEMAND) and increased government intervention around the world will hinder continued global production (SUPPLY).
-Weakness in the dollar relative to the currencies of coffee-producing nations (DEMAND) will bid up prices.
-Rising energy prices will increase costs (SUPPLY), pushing prices higher.
-A period of record cold temperatures linked to the Grand Solar Minimum will lead to slowing and potentially shrinking production (SUPPLY)
TECHNICALS:
-The 10$ price range of 115-125$ per contract with the most volume has been successfully absorbed.
-A massive amount of volume was traded at 50-75% lower prices from the 2011 peak, at the lowest levels in over a decade.
-A price-volume divergence has occurred, as during the correction from the 2011 peak volume continually increased.
-The corrective descending wedge from the 2011 peak has been broken and retested by bullish reversal candlestick patterns.
-Volatility has continually decreased for over two decades as prices have remained subdued, therefore an inevitable increase in volatility will likely occur during/after a significant increase in prices.
Long July Coffee At Bargain Basement PricesCoffee price have fallen into bargain basement levels following recent EU lock-downs. However, Brazilian supply dynamics remain bullish, the Brazilian currency just broke its 6-session losing streak, and the EU will eventually be open for business. So when things seem to be at their worse, now is the time to buy. Best option: buy vertical call spreads. I like July options long 125 call, short 140 call.
Coffee daily/4h descending triangle to the weekly support levelCoffee is forming a descending triangle in the daily/4h chart. Also, the price is at a major support/resistance level. There will be a retest at 130-131 level. If rejected again, most likely the price will fall down to the 115 level in the short-mid term.
There is a good support level in the weekly chart, most probably this will hold and coffee could become bullish again. This time it will target 160.
This is just an idea, not trade advice. Do your own research.
COFFEE Wedge Breakout Sell!
Hello,Traders!
Coffee hit strong horizontal resistance
While trading in a bear wedge pattern
And now we can see a conclusive breakout
Which makes me bearish biased
And I am expecting bearish continuation
After the pullback
To retest the lows of the wedge
Sell!
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