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British Pound / U.S. Dollar

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GBPUSD trade ideas

Opportunity for cable to rebound depending on dataThe pound has made strong losses against the US dollar in the third quarter so far, having been overheated in September. Donald Trump’s election has generated some negativity due to the likely introduction of tariffs and general deterioration of relations between the UK and USA. However, with the BoE now much less likely to cut rates next month and with only two cuts expected next year, it’s questionable whether there’s a strong fundamental reason for further strong losses by cable. The price is still in the area of the 50% monthly Fibonacci retracement which seems to be quite a strong support. An attempt to move below $1.26 was rejected with some strength on 15 November but $1.27 seems to be a significant local resistance. For a major forex pair, cable’s movements have been quite dramatic in the last few months. There’s still a strong oversold signal from the slow stochastic after this oscillator’s crossover on 18 November. $1.23 seems to be the next critical support on the weekly chart but it’d be unlikely to see the price move that far before the end of the year. If the next interaction with $1.27 leads to a breakout above, one might expect a pause before the next possible movement lower, but a reversal of the downtrend also looks possible. In the short term, selling looks more risky than buying unless there are significant surprises from upcoming data.
by Exness_Official
The Pound’s Downward Spiral: Are Bears Calling the Shots?Ah, the British Pound versus the mighty US Dollar. A tale as old as time, or at least as old as the forex market. Lately, though, it seems like the Pound is auditioning for the next big bear market. Grab your tea (or coffee if you’ve gone full American), and let’s dive into why GBP/USD might be heading south faster than you can say " Brexit chaos. " 🏴‍☠️ 1. Fibonacci Says: 'Resistance is Futile!' 🧮✨ First off, let’s talk about Fibonacci retracement. If you’re not familiar, it’s like the "Instagram filter" for price action—bringing clarity to an otherwise messy picture. Right now, the GBP/USD is dancing precariously around the 50% retracement level at 1.24376. But here’s the kicker: the Pound has already given us the cold shoulder at 1.27573 (the golden 61.8% retracement). Think of it like an ex texting "I’ve changed" and then ghosting you again. Classic. 📵 Unless GBP/USD can reclaim these levels, it’s giving major "let’s break down" vibes. 🚨 2. Descending Triangle of Doom ⚠️🔺 Triangles in forex can mean two things: continuation or reversal. This one? A big ol’ descending triangle, aka the bearish powerhouse. Lower highs are stacking up like unfulfilled New Year’s resolutions, and price action is squished tighter than a London Tube during rush hour. 🐜 The triangle breakdown looks inevitable, and when it does, it might not just be a stumble—it’ll be a swan dive into bearish waters. 🏊‍♂️💦 Target? Let’s just say 1.18379 and 1.12692 are waving hello from below. 👋 3. RSI: 'Oversold? Hold My Tea!' ☕📊 The RSI indicator is hovering dangerously close to oversold territory (around 30), whispering, "Hey, maybe the bears need a breather?" But don’t let it fool you. This isn’t a reason to buy blindly—it’s like seeing dark clouds and hoping for a rainbow instead of a thunderstorm. 🌈⚡ Unless the RSI shows a clear divergence (spoiler: it doesn’t), the downtrend could easily keep rolling like a snowball turning into an avalanche. ❄️⛰️ 4. Support Levels: The Bear’s Playground 🐻🎢 Looking ahead, the key support zones are sitting pretty at: 1.18379 (38.2% Fib): A potential pit stop. 1.12692 (23.6% Fib): Bears are probably circling this like vultures. 🦅 If you’re bullish, it’s time to sit tight. And if you’re bearish, you’re probably popping champagne already. 🍾 What Could Go Right? (AKA, the Bullish Plot Twist) 🐂✨ Okay, let’s not totally rule out the bullish counterattack. If the Pound miraculously pushes back above 1.27573 (the golden retracement), the bears might pack up and head for hibernation. But that’s a big if—like "the UK rejoining the EU" levels of unlikely. 😅 Conclusion: Will the Pound Pound Lower? 🥊📉 The stars—or in this case, Fibonacci levels and triangle patterns—are aligning for a bearish continuation. GBP/USD is looking more like a short than a "diamond in the rough." Unless it stages an Oscar-worthy comeback above 1.27573, this currency pair is poised to fall faster than a bad political speech. 🎭🎤 Bearish Action Plan 🐻📌 Wait for the triangle to break down: Confirmation is key—no guessing games here. Target 1.18379 and 1.12692: These levels are your guiding stars. Stop losses above 1.27573: Let’s not fight the inevitable if the bulls wake up. So, are you ready to ride the bear? Or are you hoping for a bull to save the day? Let me know below—because as we all know, trading is 90% strategy and 10% memes. 😜📈
Short
by EdgeDotForex
GBP/USD: Bearish Trend Targets Lower LevelsGBP/USD is currently trading around 1.2564, extending its bearish trend after breaking below a long-term ascending channel. The price is consolidating below the resistance zone at 1.2685, which previously served as a support level, now turned resistance. This area is critical as it aligns with the recent breakdown structure. If GBP/USD retests the 1.2685 level and fails to break above, the bearish trend is likely to continue. The next major support lies around 1.2360, where buyers may attempt to regain control. However, a sustained bearish move could push the pair even lower. On the upside, a break above 1.2685 could lead to a short-term recovery toward the resistance zone near 1.2880, but this remains less likely given the prevailing downtrend. Traders should focus on selling opportunities near resistance levels, with targets around 1.2360 and stops placed above 1.2700 to manage risk effectively.
Short
by Veda_Solomon
GBPUSD - The pound, vulnerable to financial policies?!The GBPUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. If the downward trend continues due to the release of today's economic data, we can see the demand zones and buy within those zones with the appropriate risk reward. In case of an upward correction, this currency pair can be sold within the specified supply zones. The UK government has quietly abandoned the Conservatives’ plan for managing pension accounts. This plan, introduced by former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, aimed to address the issue of small, lost pension accounts. However, it faced widespread criticism from the savings industry. Instead, the new government has decided to focus on launching a pension dashboard to help individuals track their missing savings. Additionally, Rachel Reeves, Hunt’s successor, has announced plans for “megafunds” to consolidate the fragmented state of the current pension system. In October, the UK’s public sector net borrowing rose to £17.4 billion, significantly exceeding the £12.9 billion forecast and the previous figure of £16.6 billion. Excluding banking groups, the figure also stood at £17.4 billion, surpassing the earlier estimate of £13.3 billion. This increase in borrowing highlights the government’s growing need for financial resources and could impact future fiscal policies. Natural gas prices in the UK have reached their highest levels compared to European benchmarks since late 2021. This reflects the country’s heightened vulnerability to cold weather due to a lack of large storage sites. While futures contracts have shown little movement, they remain near last year’s peak levels. Additionally, natural gas prices have risen by over 15% so far in November, further emphasizing the fragility of the UK’s gas market. Mann, a member of the Bank of England, has expressed concerns about exchange rate volatility.She described a 1% rate cut as overly aggressive and suggested that decisions on reducing interest rates should be postponed until economic conditions stabilize. She emphasized that significant monetary changes should only occur based on robust data and evidence. Meanwhile, at TD Securities, a team of strategists led by Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg expects the Federal Reserve to halt rate cuts in the first half of 2025, as central bank policymakers assess the impact of Trump’s policies. Similarly, interest rate strategists at JPMorgan have adjusted their expectations for the Fed. Broadly speaking, potential conflicts between the Federal Reserve and Trump’s White House seem highly likely, given that Trump’s policies could clash with monetary policies focused on curbing growth and reducing inflation.
Short
by Ali_PSND
Elliott Wave View: GBPUSD is Approaching Support ZoneShort Term Elliott Wave View in GBPUSD suggests decline from 9.26.2024 high is in progress as a zigzag structure. Down from 9.26.2024 high, wave A ended at 1.284. Wave B bounce ended at 1.3047 as the 1 hour chart below shows. Wave C lower is now in progress with internal subdivision as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave B, wave ((i)) ended at 1.283 and wave ((ii)) ended at 1.3. Pair then resumed lower in wave ((iii)). Down from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 1.294 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 1.3. Pair resumed lower in wave (iii) towards 1.2627 and wave (iv) rally ended at 1.272. Wave (v) lower ended at 1.2594 which completed wave ((iii)) in higher degree. Rally in wave ((iv)) unfolded as a zigzag structure. Up from wave ((iii)), wave (a) ended at 1.2689 and pullback in wave (b) ended at 1.261. Wave (c) higher ended at 1.2715 which completed wave ((iv)) in higher degree. Wave ((v)) of C lower is now in progress with potential target 100% – 161.8% of wave A. This area comes at 1.208 – 1.245 where buyers can appear for 3 waves rally at least.
by Elliottwave-Forecast
GBPUSD H1 I Bullish Bounce offBased on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 1.2605, which is an overlap Our take profit will be at 1.2564, aligning with the 127.2% Fibo extension The stop loss will be placed at 1.2636, a pullback resistance level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
GBPUSD: Sell Positive. Emphasis on 1,262FX:GBPUSD falling and reaction to the "flag" model. The price is checking the strong support level around 1,262 ... The basic context still supports the dollar. Theoretically, the currency briefcase after breaking the channel increases, the price has formed a adjustment and now is decreasing. The areas of interest in our case may be 1,260, 1,257, 1,252. Basically, the trend of this pair of money may be due to the weaker US dollar and the market environment is psychologically avoiding risks. Traders are still cautious in the context of geopolitical tensions and mild economic calendar. Fedpeak is noticed. There is no news until the Fed speaks, so the basic context remains the same. The market may stop and go into the consolidation process, but with the high possibility that the decline after a breakthrough 1,262 will continue ...
Short
by Bentradegold
1
British pound falls to 6-month low, retail sales nextThe British pound has lost ground on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2506, down 0.44% on the day. Earlier, the pound dropped as low as 1.2593, its lowest level since mid-May. It’s a busy Friday in the UK, highlighted by the retail sales report. We’ll also get a look at consumer confidence and the services and manufacturing PMIs. The UK releases October retail sales on Friday and the markets are bracing for a downswing. The market estimate stands at 3.4% y/y, compared to 3.9% in September, the highest since Feb. 2022. Monthly, retail sales are expected to decline by 0.3%, following a 0.3% gain in September. The UK consumer remains in a sour mood, as the cost of living and high interest rates continue to squeeze households. The GfK consumer confidence index is expected to remain unchanged in November at -21. The UK manufacturing sector has been struggling. The October PMI was revised downwards to 49.9, which indicates stagnation. The PMI has decelerated for three straight months and the weak global demand will likely continue to weigh on manufacturing in the months ahead. The market estimate for November stands at 50.0. The services sector is in better shape and has shown 12 consecutive months of growth. The PMI has also eased for three straight months, raising concerns about the health of the economy. The market estimate for November is 52.0, unchanged from the October figure. The US will also publish manufacturing and services PMIs on Friday, with little change expected. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise from 45.5 to 45.8, and the Services PMI, which has been showing solid growth, from 55 to 55.2. There is resistance at 1.2666 and 1.2702 GBP/USD pushed below support at 1.2618 and tested support at 1.2582 earlier
by OANDA
GU - longREAL TRADER Looking from technical viewpoint GU looks like its tired of this downtrend and its a potential of reversal. Price is now breaking above resistance after making 3 HLs. If I want to buy, I want to see price break resistance to upside to make bullish structure. But if price reverse from resistance to downside its continuation of consolidation and price can come back to HL. I don't get biased - I'm just a price tracker. But I know for sure that if the price break to upside and break resistance - it's strong bullish indication of potential swing to uptrend. ~AS Malone
Long
by adameksad