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USDOLLAR trade ideas

USDOLLAR Slides to 61.8% Fibonacci LevelFurther to yesterday's article , the USDOLLAR has continued to decline. It now finds itself at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of its previous impulse move. This level overlaps with price support (green shaded horizontal) around the 12,290 level. The rotation of capital into bonds as well as short term notes is putting pressure on yields. This is the the catalyst for the lower USD. We note the positive correlation between the 2 Yr Treasury Bill and the USDOLLAR (red rectangle areas). However, we again reiterate that the RSI for the T-Bill is oversold (blue rectangle) and that it will need to normalize soon. This is likely to provide support for the greenback, which may provide a floor to further greenback weakness in the near term.
FX:USDOLLARLong
by FXCM
USDOLLAR Drops to 50% Fibonacci Retracment on DailyFXCM's USDOLLAR index has pulled back to the 50% retracement of its previous impulse move up. This area overlaps with price support around the 12,337 level. It will be interesting to see if this is a level that the greenback bulls are targeting. Pressure has been exerted on the USDOLLAR by the declining yields on the shorter end of the yield curve. Above we show the US 2-Yr treasury note, noting the drop in yields (blue rectangle). This area corresponds with a deeply oversold RSI (green rectangle) and a bounce in the short-term yields in the near term is a possibility, as the oscillator normalizes. If this happens, it is likely to support the USDOLLAR. It will be interesting to note if this happens at current levels.
FX:USDOLLARLong
by FXCM
USDOLLAR Pulls Back To Support AreaThe USDOLLAR has pulled back to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the last impulse move up. This level coincides with a resistance turned support area (green shaded horizontal). The G7 finance ministers and central bankers will hold a teleconference today to discuss measures to deal with the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak. The formal statement may create market volatility and it will be interesting to see if the support level holds. If the green 5-day EMA closes above the orange 10-day EMA and the RSI moves above 50, it will be regarded as bullish developments and may be a signal that the greenback has commenced its next advance. If this does happen, the catalyst is most likely to be market disappointment in the communicated monetary response i.e.a dovish stance by the Fed has already been priced in.
FX:USDOLLARLong
by FXCM
Dow Jones Dollar Index | Almost a Decade of UptrendPlease support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful. Highly recommend to watch the Support trendline, because it was not broken for almost a decade. At current we have an Ascending Triangle formed and if the resistance zone is past the Uptrend will continue. Thank you for reading this idea! Hope it's been useful to you and some of us will turn it into profitable. Remember this analysis is not 100% accurate. No single analysis is. To make a decision follow your own thoughts. The information given is not a Financial Advice.
FX:USDOLLARLong
by Anpu
5
USDOLLAR Momentum Down As Yields DeclineThe momentum of the USDOLLAR has declined over the course of the week. We can see this by the convergence of the green 5-day EMA towards the orange 10 day EMA (green ellipse). Moreover, the RSI has moved closer to 50 (red rectangle). As markets capitulated this week we note the bottom chart of the US 2-Yr note i.e. the yield has dropped markedly (blue rectangle). This reflects a renewed expectation by the market that the Fed will be forced to cut rates in 2020 more aggressively than initially forecast. Cuts are now expected in April, June and December. However, the greenback is showing some resilience. Today's candle (still to complete) looks like a bullish hammer (green arrow). As such we continue to monitor and if the green 5-day EMA crosses below the orange 10-day EMA and the RSI drops below 50, these will be considered as bearish developments.
FX:USDOLLAR
by FXCM
USDOLLAR Bullish Flag Continuation on H1; Awaiting BreakoutThe USDOLLAR's green 5-hour EMA has crossed above its orange 10-hour EMA (green ellipse) and the RSI is above 50 (blue rectangle). These are bullish developments and suggest an underlying positive momentum. We note that the greenback has almost completed a flag pattern (red parallel trend lines). To complete we need to see a breakout to the upside. A flag pattern is a continuation pattern i.e. the previous impulse up is the dominant direction if the pattern is a true flag. Moreover, flags fly at "half-mast”, which give a price target of 12,513 if realized.
FX:USDOLLARLong
by FXCM
USDOLLAR Bouncing Off Fibonacci Support on H1The USDOLLAR pulled back yesterday after registering as overbought on the daily time frame and running into resistance. Here we take a look at the 1 hour time frame. FXCM's dollar index is bouncing off of the 50% Fibonacci retracement support level. We can also see that the RSI has moved above 50 (blue rectangle), which is the bullish side of the oscillator. This may be indicative of a possible shift to an underlying bullish momentum. We are now looking to see if the green 5-hour EMA crosses above the orange 10-hour EMA and develops angle and separation (aqua ellipse). If so, these will be regarded as bullish developments.
FX:USDOLLARLong
by Russell_Shor
USDOLLAR Runs into Resistance; Oscillators due to NormaliseHere we see the daily chart of FXCM's USDOLLAR index. We note that the green 5-day EMA is above the orange 10-day EMA with good angle and separation. This is indicative of the strong upwards momentum of the greenback. However, technically, the index has run into overhead resistance (red shaded horizontal) at a time when the RSI is overbought (in excess of 80). Furthermore, we can see that the EMAs crossed in early January at about the time the RSI pushed above 50 (aqua ellipses). Thus,the current impulse move is mature and certainly may be close to a correction. If a pullback does chart, it may very well be a buying opportunity. The greenback is a beneficiary of the renewed fears surrounding the spread of the coronvirus, particularity to areas outside of China (we have seen a jump in cases in South Korea and Italy). I.e. the USDOLLAR is currently being utilised as a safe haven and this is likely to continue given the poor choice of alternatives (the JPY seems to have been stripped of this status, at least temporarily. following its 1.6% GDP contraction last week).
FX:USDOLLARLong
by Russell_Shor