Highs have been capturedLast Tuesdays highs have been captured and price seems to be falling with German CPI news ahead.
GER30 trade ideas
GER30 Weekly Signal Idea 4.1.24Always keeping it simple with Multi-Time Frame Highs and Lows, IB's and OB's.
(previous sell levels still marked)
GER30 has been moving beautiful in a nice uptrend and continues to create higher highs.
Will do high - level overview and time permits, although you can seem some of the lower levels if price was to break structure.
Still bullishGer40 has been very bullish since November. It has even had a great bullish run in March and the previous week although it has a mixed close on Friday. On the lower timerframes I would like to see it take the high at 18541.6 . German CPI data will be released Tuesday.
GER40 Bullish till it shows bearish resistanceGER40 Bullish till it shows bearish resistance on weekly.
Keep buying.
GER30 - Long from support ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on GER30.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from 1H timeframe perspective, so I look for a long position. I want price to continue the retracement and to reject from S/R zone + trendline for a long.
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DAX weekly forecast from April 2nd, 2024Situation assessment XETR:DAX
1. We have reached another trend reversal zone
2. In our opinion, “much” after “above” is no longer possible in the future
We would like to apologize for the inaccuracy of last week's forecast {wink} when we headlined as follows:
1. Weekly UP peak: between 18,406 and 18,518 (Bonus: 18,630)
2. In perspective, EUREX:FDAX1! The next striking decision zone is 18,777 (+/-) in focus.
The weekly XETR:DAX peak was reached with 5 points less at exactly 18,513.83 and to create this forecast the FDAX reached 18,776 in late trading ;-). The rest of the forecast is also impressive...
Be that as it may, at the beginning of April we will be flooded with some standardized purchase orders (funds, savings plans, etc.) until the April expiry, which will give the DAX a slight further boost. Professional traders use this as an opportunity, especially at the end of the quarter, to take antagonistic positions and carry out a latent “rebalance” at the next quarterly end in June.
In perspective, we see the round 18,650 / 680 in XETR:DAX as a potential high point before we could take corrective measures. This would be equivalent to approximately $18,995 EUREX:FDAX1! points.
For the homeopathic Waver faction among us: … we see the 3 of the running 5 at the final end, before we get the 4... . As you have probably already noticed, we don't like "mystical wave predictions" - although we do take the "waves" into account in our models, just as emotionless and interpretation-free mathematical functions, e.g. in the form of adaptive signal decomposition . In addition, other factors often play a much more crucial role for professional traders than the “Bloomberg” faction is trying to sell us.
As long as XETR:DAX 18,535 can be validly overcome on a daily basis as of April 2nd over the course of the week, the gates are open for us to achieve even higher goals via 18,613 / 683. For this it would be necessary to overcome the 18,726 valid on a daily closing price basis over the course of the week. If this happens, nothing stands in the way of the ~18,900 to 19,095 / 209 until the April monthly witch dance.
From a standard pivot perspective, the XETR:DAX weekly-monthly comparison shows 18,646 / 679 as a valid resistance zone. Furthermore, the R2 annual pivot is at 18,597, which will not have an exact braking effect at this point, but will have a braking effect in this region.
Unless an exogenous black swan emerges, it is not worth paying much attention to the downside for the coming week. On the one hand, the hedging needs (VDAX, SKEW, ...) speak against this and, on the other hand, our trend barometer and the general momentum currently show no reason to worry. On the contrary: setbacks will be bought (!).
Nevertheless, the XETR:DAX Magistrale (MoB) is at 18,247 for the coming week. Only when it is validly below... is it time to consider a short strategy and set an anchor point again (did you remember? ;))
However, don't forget: we are in a shortened trading week in the western-oriented world with lower sales in the future and the associated volatile uncertainties (!) So don't be disappointed if the high in March has already been marked with the April contract change .
If you value this article and the work involved, follow us and give us a thumbs up - it doesn't hurt (:-)
It is worth mentioning “by the way” that in terms of chart technology we have achieved an extension from 2000 – 2008 with ~18,485.
We forecast based on mathematical models for XETR:DAX as follows:
1. Trend barometer: UP
2nd week UP peak: between 18,613 and 18,683 (Bonus: 18,726)
3rd week DOWN peak: between 18,357 and 18,287
4. Arithmetic mean: between 18,384 and 18,586
5. MOB technical price mark: 18,428
6. Pivot fluctuation range: 18,216 / 18,722
7. Fair Value GD / Low / High: 18,440 / 904 / 935
8. VIX Zones: 11.58 / 12.66
Notes
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Stock market rule: Markets can behave irrationally longer than you can remain solvent (John Maynard Keynes)
Forecasts are what they are: A look into the future taking into account the past, which can change dynamically, positively or negatively, from the time of publication
To create this forecast, a trend-following system (TM) developed in-house using, among other things, mathematical, statistical, rolling, volume-based, differential analysis methods is used and accordingly shortened and simplified in an informative, non-indirect manner here on Tradingview in the generally accessible public area free of charge for personal use.
DE30EUR is making bullish movement.its making HH and HL so we will wait for green candle to confirm our entry
German DAX: New Highs?Hey Traders,
The state of the German Economy, alike other economic zones and economies has seen twists and turns. From hopeful highs, to fearful lows, the transition from confidence to incompetence has been viewed widely. The current retracement above local and historic highs comes about as the US index markets also rise, after inflation reports and comments from the FED feeding global confidence.
Falls on fears the global economy will crash, back to rebounds on the basis that maybe things are not so bad. These fears and hopes can be seen throughout the general market and comments from the FED in the US giving an overall 'world sentiment'. Its important to take note of the fundamental and technical bias that presents, as they often go hand in hand.
The Point of fundamental analysis is to gauge current and future market mood. The point of Technical Analysis is to gauge the validity of a price point and its preferability amongst traders alike. A reduction in global tensions recently and lesser fears of an energy crisis have helped the global economy and indeed the German economy as they consume a lot of energy and require oil in copious amounts to function.
Putting the two together allows you to pick key short zones BEFORE negative news occurs, since markets are pretty much a transition of investors buying when things seem like they'll go up, to shorting when there is belief they will go down.
Germany, in particular, has frequently had a robust economy and the sustained growth of the economy has led to a boost in the value of the DAX as its inherent companies grow accordingly. It was considered at times the strong economy in Europe.
As Germany experienced a PMI reading of under 50, this generally reflects a contracting economy. This is also the case in other places in the world where there is very little growth, like the UK. This is mainly driven as consumers stop spending money and thus businesses make less money. Business is also slowed by the cost of borrowing and the cost of materials and machinery.
Sentiment Bias (market mood/fundamentals):
Particularly, Germany faces problems with residentials builds at the moment as more and more companies start to cancel planned projects that they were going to follow through with. It's just become too expensive for them to complete and they are having to scale back, further slowing the overall health of the economy.
There is also the budget crisis in which the planned spending by Germany to stimulate the economy has many questions over its head. The amount being borrowed comes heavily into question, particularly now.
Technical Bias (reading charts and using price):
We are returning to key price levels seen previously on Market falls. These are short areas and certainly not time to buy, especially inline with the aforementioned. The rally in price mainly comes as conditions are better elsewhere in the world and giving indication to what may occur in future. Short bias much preferred at this point, with a light intention, due to rapid moves into previous highs.
The reason why highs are used for shorting markets is because they tell you where the previously preferred long exit areas and thus short entry areas are located in the minds of investors and traders alike. Its important to note in conjunction that the most recent fall has not taken you enormously further down and therefore it can be inferred that somewhat long bias, whether founded or unfounded exists.
From here, I would be reacting / checking for lower timeframe entry confirmation and signs price is halting. One must be cautious when determining short areas. Identifying overall high prices and taking a fundamental bias is fine. But it has to be backed up heavily by rational and logical risk management plans in the event you do indeed reach higher highs, despite economic headwinds.
shortthe market is correcting a bit but the overall movement will be impulsive. so for now we can collect the pips as it will short for corrective movement. happy Easter holiday
DAX time to pay the piperDistribution phase after an extended 5th wave of this cycle.... potentially 19000 , but imho doubt it as many EU/German big companies have cashed out to pay their CEOs and employees (e.g. SAP).
non-financial advice
DAX sold for mad R (56R) Picking tops is extremely hard (but the potential R rate is huge)
using 18530 it is a whopping 56R
The continuation of the bullish market and then the wave degree Dear analysts and traders,
I hope you are doing well and are motivated for the week ahead. I wish you all the success in your business endeavors. Remember that success in trading lies in consistently defining and sticking to your rules.
As someone interested in the Elliott Wave Principle, I find it to be an invaluable tool for market analysis. I have developed my approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and by considering different scenarios that are likely to occur in the market. It should be noted that I do not like to be surprised in the market, and that's why I have different market prospects. I follow them to be sure and recognize the structure that is forming so that I can 100% recognize it.
I will share my analysis with you, but please note that I am not providing any buy or sell signals. My perspective on idea analysis is completely unbiased, so if the idea analysis meets your standards, you can use it as a guide to make an informed decision.
I have attached my previous analysis of the same market so that you can compare and see the differences. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand. However, having a basic familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory will help you understand the analytical idea more easily.
I have been studying the Elliott Wave Principle for almost three years now, and over time, my understanding of this knowledge and experience has grown. What I have achieved so far is the legacy of a genius called Ralph Nelson Eliot, and I am really happy with my progress. May peace be upon him.
Thank you for your support so far. I will always remember your kindness. Please share your comments and criticisms with me.
I hope my analysis will be useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best.
Sincerely,
Mr. Nobody
Weekly Technical Analysis 25/03/2024Start your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP
Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level and Elliot waves
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Analysis
Germany 40 has continued its bullish trend in the impulsive phase, with a notable rise in price to 18,210, now positioned above its upward-sloping 20-period VWAP of 17,896. The index has established new support at 17,513 and is encountering resistance near 18,279. The RSI has slightly increased to 71, suggesting sustained positive momentum.
UK 100 has shifted to a bullish trend, now in the impulsive phase, with its price at 7,916, positioned significantly above the still quite flat 20-period VWAP of 7,722. The index's support level is now at 7,526, with resistance identified at 7,917. The RSI has risen to 69, indicating a strong shift toward bullish sentiment.
Wall Street remains in a bullish trend in the impulsive phases but put in a large bearish engulfing candle, with the price adjusting to 39,402, still above the upward-sloping 20-period VWAP of 38,964. The index's support is at 38,258, with resistance determined at 39,669. The RSI is at 59, reflecting a shift towards a more bullish momentum state from neutral.
Brent Crude has slightly adjusted in its bullish trend, remaining in the impulsive phase, with its price decreasing to 85.23, above the up-sloping 20-period VWAP of 83.91. The support level is at 80.66, with resistance closely set at 87.16. The RSI has decreased to 59, indicating a slight reduction in bullish momentum.
Gold continues in a bullish trend and is still in the impulsive phase, with the price consolidating to 2,166, marginally above the 20-period VWAP of 2,157. The support level has been revised to 2,104, with resistance now at 2,210. The RSI has decreased to 60, still reflecting strong bullish sentiment but slightly less than before.
EUR/USD might be coming to the end of its bullish trend and is now in the corrective phase, with its price at 1.0819, below its upward-sloping 20-period VWAP of 1.0885. The support is now at 1.0789, with resistance at 1.0980. The RSI at 43 indicates a shift to negative momentum.
GBP/USD has shifted to a bearish trend in the impulsive phase, with its price at 1.2605, below the 20-period VWAP of 1.2731. The support has been adjusted to 1.2570, with resistance at 1.2892. The RSI at 38 suggests new bearish sentiment.
USD/JPY has flipped back to a bullish trend, recently entering the impulsive phase, with its price at 151.35, significantly above the 20-period VWAP of 149.26. The support has been revised up to 145.94, with resistance at 152.59. The RSI at 64 indicates a shift toward stronger bullish momentum.
Is Germany's economy the biggest indicator for DAX traders?For over half a year, traders have been witnessing the epic rise of Germany’s Dax index (DE30), recently passing $18,000 (USD). For decades, the index, a beacon of Germany's corporate power, seemed invincible, with its German companies all reaching new peaks. But beneath this veneer of German engineering and strength, the foundations are shaking. Germany's robust economy, the engine of Europe, is showing unmistakable signs of wear.
Just last year, economists started pointing to the subtle yet telling signs of an impending downturn for Germany. Since then, GDP growth was slashed to 0.2% for 2024, a significant and disturbing downgrade from previous forecasts. The manufacturing sector continues to suffer from weak global demand and high energy costs, with harsh implications for future exports.
In addition, shortages in skilled workers plague major industries, and yet the unemployment lines, rarely seen in this land of efficiency, are growing.
Despite all this gloom, the DAX continues its upward trajectory, seemingly oblivious to any doom on the horizon. There is a clear disconnect between the DAX's performance and the weakening German economy. Perhaps the market, often driven by sentiment, has not yet caught up with reality. If that’s true, then we are all looking at a pending opportunity to take a position before the action begins.
Germany’s economic indicators are contrasting the current DAX price trend. For technical traders, all signs are bullish. But for economists and fundamental traders, shorting DE30 at the all-time high may well seem like an obvious move.
Before you trade DE30, consider that the markets are not reacting with traditional patterns.
In theory, it makes sense that the top-performing companies of an economically failing nation would experience financial complications, but we are seeing a similar and puzzling disconnect in the US too. Despite all the woes, USD and US indices are still flying high. Coincidence? Maybe.
One thing is for sure, traders closely watching the current political and economic stage will stand a better chance of being the ‘early bird’ for any major rallies and crashes in 2024.
