NFC trade ideas
NETFLIX Up +18% today, sending a message to the market.Netflix made a huge price jump today, opening on the MA50 (1d) for the first time in more than 1 month.
It remains under the Falling Resistance, but held the Rising Support trend lines of the Bullish Megaphone.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy after the price crosses over the Falling Resistance or if it hits the MA200 (1d) again.
Targets:
1. 508.45 (January 20th 2020 gap).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) made a huge oversold jump. Similar jumps can be seen on March 9th 2023 and May 9th 2022, both market bottoms.
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NetflixPrice is falling for many days with less pullbacks. On the lower time frame price has formed a falling wedge, which is a bullish pattern.
On higher time frame, that is weekly chart, price has broken the trend line which confirms the bearish trend. As per the weekly chart, support is at 310 - 315 level.
Resistance zone is 358 - 362.
Buy above 353 with the stop loss of 350 for the targets 356, 360 and 366.
Sell below 344 with the stop loss of 348 for the targets 340, 336 and 330.
Do your own analysis, before taking trades.
Netflix Jumps 14% After Surge In 3rd Quarter SubscribersNetflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) shares jumped more than 13.5% in pre-market Thursday trading after it handily beat profit expectations as subscriber numbers rose.
The streaming giant reported earnings per share of $3.73 on revenue of $8.54 billion. Analysts expected EPS of $3.49 and revenue of $8.54 billion. The third quarter results beat Netflix’s previous guidance.
The company said paid subscribers rose 8.76 million in the third quarter, well above expectations for just over 6 million.
“The last six months have been challenging for our industry given the combined writers and actors strikes in the US,” Netflix said in a shareholder letter, noting that while the writers’ strike has ended, it continues to talk to the actors’ unions. “We’re committed to resolving the remaining issues as quickly as possible so everyone can return to work making movies and TV shows that audiences will love.”
For the fourth quarter, Netflix sees earnings per share of $2.15 and revenue of about $8.69 billion. The revenue growth is expected to be around 10.7%, after growing 7.8% in the third quarter.
The company said operating margin in the third quarter was 22.4%, slightly above its guidance, and it sees 2023 operating margin near the top of its range at 20%.
KeyBanc analysts upgraded shares to Overweight with a $510 per share price target.
"In my my own view, Netflix is entering 2024 a cleaner story as: 1) paid sharing appears to have changed Netflix's ability to reach the next ~250M subs; 2) operating profit and FCF are steadily ramping; and 3) buybacks should support a 25%+ EPS growth profile," they said in an upgrade note.
JPMorgan analysts hiked the price target to $480 per share on the Overweight-rated stock.
"We’re encouraged that NFLX is executing on Paid Sharing by converting borrower households, contributing to revenue acceleration to +12% FXN in 4Q, & we believe the forecast for similar net adds to 3Q +/- a few million should skew to the upside given more favorable seasonality in 4Q & a strong content slate," the analysts wrote.
NFLX Price Soars 12% after Strong ReportYesterday's closing price was 345.83, but this morning, NFLX's price rose above USD 390 per share in premarket trading. The reason is a strong report:
→ earnings per share = USD 3.73, expected = USD 3.49;
→ revenue = USD 8.54 billion, a year ago = USD 7.9 billion.
→ the main surprise is that the number of subscribers grew by an impressive 8.76 million in the third quarter (about 6 million were expected). The number of subscribers worldwide is approaching 250 million.
Given the increase in demand for its service, Netflix has decided to raise the price of its basic plan in the US to USD 11.99 per month from USD 9.99, and raise the price of its premium subscription to USD 22.99 per month from USD 19.99. This could attract more earnings per share in the future, which is what has helped NFLX's price soar.
From the technical analysis point of view:
→ NFLX price returns to the ascending channel that was in effect in 2023 and seems to be becoming relevant again. The false breakout pattern could become a support zone in the future.
→ NFLX price exceeded USD 370 per share.
Since early September, NFLX has been a laggard in the NASDAQ index, but after the report it may become one of the leaders. "While we have much work to do to build out this business, we're making good progress and laying the foundation for what we believe should be a multibillion-dollar revenue stream over time," Netflix executives wrote in a letter to shareholders.
Resistance to a powerful bullish impulse may come from:
→ psychological level of USD 400;
→ level at USD 412 – during the summer, the level provided support. But it was broken on September 13-14, and with a bearish gap, which could slow down the rally if the price of NFLX reaches this level. Also note that here is the Fibo resistance level of 50% of the decline A→B.
According to TipRanks, analysts have a target price of USD 454 for NFLX, but given its recent performance, the forecast could be raised.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Netflix to 175?Netflix (NFLX)
1. Price Formation: The price has broken out from a Rising channel (Flag) price formation on a daily chart.
2. Moving Averages: The 7-day moving average (MA) is below the 21-day MA, which is a sign indicating short-term bearish momentum.
3. 200-day Moving Average is above the Price.
4. Thus, Mas 7<21 and 21=200
5. Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is <than 50, indicating bullish momentum and potential further upward movement.
6. Price Target: to the bottom of the channel at 175
NFLXNetflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) shares surged over 10% in after-hours trading after surpassing profit expectations and seeing a rise in subscribers. In Q3, they reported an EPS of $3.73 and revenue of $8.54 billion, exceeding analyst predictions. Paid subscribers grew by 8.76 million, well above expectations. While industry challenges persisted due to strikes, Netflix is committed to resolving issues and anticipates a Q4 EPS of $2.15 and revenue of about $8.69 billion, with a 2023 operating margin near the top of its range at 20%.
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NFLX Falling into a Dark Pool Buy Zone?While we all wait on the highly anticipated NASDAQ:NFLX earnings report at the close today, let's study the weekly chart to study the downside potential since the stock gapped down today on expectations of a weak report.
Netflix’s percentage of shares held by institutions has recovered to a respectable 79%, which is more consistent with a company that is in favor with the Buy Side Institutions. There has been accumulation going on since the lows of 2022.
Selling Short is problematic due to the support levels not far down from the current price and the risk of a hidden Dark Pool Buy Zone starting at the highs of the U-shaped bottom formation.
The current run down is at a technical support level, which is where pro traders often nudge the price to trigger HFTs. Beware of the risk of an extreme reaction at the open tomorrow. During earnings season with a report at the close, pro traders often take profits either in the final minutes of the day to avoid the risk of a surprise, or shortly after the open to capitalize on the reaction to the report.
NETFLIXNETFLIX falsely broke the growing channel it had been building since the bounce.
Subsequently, it lured many impatient bears into short positions, and the subsequent strong rally from $300 is thus parasitizing to liquidate their short positions.
I expect a real rejection from the $500 area.
Invalidation is on a strong break above $500 and testing as support.
Netflix it's ShowTimE !!Hi mates, sharing Daily chart of Netflix for a possible detailed analyis according to my observations, So as we can see on weekly chart that after making a all a time high of 700 levels in the November 2021 it made a low of 163 levels the May 2022 it was a cut of 76% from all time high levels at that time and after price created a base near to 170-190 levels and started it's journey in uptrend again.
So according to data above shared it halted it's reversal journey near to 372 levels where price took a strong resistance (marked on chart) and came down a bit near to 290 levels, And after when it broken that that 372 levels it gives a parabolic move in ascending channel marked on chart too and that breakout took price to 485 levels in the July 2023. And after break of that ascending channel support line price tried to go again in that channel but failed and in this process it made a double top on provided chart and after the break of neckline mentioned on chart it reached to near that 372 levels again now.
So my point is this that price currently it is trading near to 372 levels which can act as a support now prior it was resistance as mentioned in description above. If break and close below can check lower support target below, and if bounce we can see it can test mentioned neckline area again or above after the break of neckline which surely will act as resisatnce for now.
Will try to give proper updates if i will go for any executions in it.
Price can take 200 Ema support also
This is not and trade or investment advice. This idea is meant for learning only.
Best Regards happy trading- Amit
$NFLX: Further down into earnings?Comms, as previously stated in past posts, are of concern and unless the unemployment report tomorrow sends market's skyrocketing. I think we will struggle a little bit more, at least as we head into the earnings report along with broader financial names already covered here.
Nflx puts for earnings today. Strangle. Will be buying a few otm puts and one very far otm call strangling Netflix. Earnings likely to see a big down move.
Netflix user growth to prove recent correction is a spikeNetflix's third-quarter 2023 results will be announced on Wednesday after the stock market closes
The company has implemented a policy prohibiting the sharing of accounts outside the household
Will that reflect in the earnings, making the stock correction a buying opportunity?
The global entertainment landscape has undergone a transformative shift with the rise of streaming platforms, effectively eclipsing traditional media such as television.
Leading this digital revolution is Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), providing audiences access to an extensive library of movies and series for a modest subscription fee.
As we approach Wednesday, expectations are running high for the release of Netflix's third-quarter results, a key event in light of the platform's recent policy shift regarding password sharing.
Introduced in May of this year, this change aimed to curb the unauthorized sharing of accounts and appears to be having the desired effect, as user numbers continue to grow – a change that is poised to manifest itself in the forthcoming third-quarter figures.
Yet, intriguingly, despite Netflix's robust user growth, its stock has been navigating a broad correction phase, prompting speculation that the conclusion of this adjustment may yield results exceeding current forecasts.
In the lead-up to the results, all eyes are on Netflix's projected earnings per share, which currently stand at an estimated $3.48, alongside revenues totaling $8.53 billion.
Notably, the forecast has experienced a remarkable 24 upward revisions, with only 3 instances of downward revision, indicating a high level of market anticipation.
NFLX earning coming#NFLX creating reversal divergence but still weak when it still closed below 364$
IF NFLX can break above 364$ will back test 371$. Above 371$ will be 377$
IF NFLX hold below 364$, support will be 354$. Break down below 354$ can be 346/340/332$
💵 E a r n i n g s J o u r n a l 📶 S T A T I S T I C A L A N A L Y S I S
Current 50-Day Market Trend: short/sellers/negative.
Next Swing: negative swing to resistance.
Next Wave: buy wave to the deviation.
Next 50-Day Market Trend: long/buyers/positive.
Trade Type: Touch & Go don't wait for a close.
💵 E A R N I N G S A T A G L A N C E
Release Date: 10/18 AMC
_______________________________________________
Revenue Anticipations: negative surprise for Revenues.
Revenue Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #2
Revenue 2-Year Trend: the company trend in Revenues is positive.
_______________________________________________
EPS Anticipations: positive surprise for EPS.
EPS Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #6
EPS 2-Year Trend: the company trend in EPS is neutral.
_______________________________________________
📝 S Y N O P S I S
"I expect the market will buy the +surprise if the earnings report hits the Wall Street consensus, or sell the -surprise if the earnings report misses the Wall Street consensus."
🔎 R E S E A R C H D E P T H
Technical Analysis: daily chart.
Fundamental Analysis: EPS & Revenue data.
Press/News: none.
Social Media: none.
NFLXJust a technical look..
Technical view means only analyzed chart and nothing else..
This analysis can be easily completed and the time frame is high, so it will take a lot of time.
Good long opportunity in NetflixWith the recent recovery from NASDAQ:NDX from in the last 2-3 days, i would like to go long if NASDAQ:NDX breaks out from its trendline.
NASDAQ:NFLX is an attractive option as i believe we can get a 1:2.5 approx long trade here with a possible 16% upside. Since last year we have seen a higher high higher low trend which is again trsting its new higher low as it is being supported by the volumes near the 50-100-200 DMA near this price level. I would like to go long if NASDAQ:NDX breaks out on NASDAQ:NFLX with a SL below the DMAs.
All eyes of NASDAQ:NDX and NASDAQ:NFLX for a good RR swing trade.
$NFLX - Can it bounce from trendline?NASDAQ:NFLX Netflix has paid the head and shoulders breakdown and reached the $368 target as mentioned in my previous post on Aug 15.
Currently, it's trading within a downtrend channel. There is a potential for a bounce from the lower trendline.
However, there is still a risk that it can see further downside to $354. So know your risk.
Targets to the upside:
$387.37
$411
Downside risk:
Could Netflix (NITFLIX) keep Falling ?Hello Everyone,
Today, I've spotted a very compelling signal to short on Netflix (NFLX). I previously mentioned that this stock was likely to decline, and now it appears that it could continue falling for three reasons:
1) The market Broke the Trendline with significant Volume.
2) Right after the break, the market retraced to the trendline, which we call a 'PULLBACK,' and then continued its downward movement with significant momentum.
3) What encourages me the most to set a target of $316 is the Fibonacci extension levels. These levels are reasonable, as you can see on the chart, and the 1.618 level is an optimal target to consider for taking profits.
I hope you've enjoyed reading my analysis of Netflix stock. If you find my insights beneficial, please hit the like and follow buttons for more ideas.
NFLX earnings watchNFLX earnings are on Wednesday 7/19/23 at 4pm. Netflix (NFLX) reported Q1 March 2023 earnings of 2.88 per share on revenue of 8.2 billion. The consensus earnings estimate was 2.83 per share on revenue of 8.2 billion. Revenue grew 3.7% on a year-over-year basis. The company said in its shareholders letter it expects second quarter earnings of approximately 2.84 per share for the quarter ending June 30, 2023.
NFLX Q2 June 2023 Consensus:
EPS = 2.82
Revenue = 8.27 B
PE = 47.5
NFLX earnings recap since 2022:
1/20/22 = (- 110)
4/19/22 = (-82)
7/19/22 = +14
10/18/22 = +11
1/19/23 = +13
4/18/23 = +1
NFLX VWMA levels:
VWMA20 = 435
VWMA50 = 399
VWMA100 = 359
VWMA200 = 318
NFLX options data:
7/21 expiry
Put Volume Total 30,928
Call Volume Total 45,847
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.67
Put Open Interest Total 124,823
Call Open Interest Total 121,902
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.02
8/18 expiry
Put Volume Total 5,613
Call Volume Total 7,508
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.75
Put Open Interest Total 25,430
Call Open Interest Total 32,265
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.79
9/15 expiry
Put Volume Total 2,769
Call Volume Total 2,525
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.10
Put Open Interest Total 47,611
Call Open Interest Total 44,274
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.08
#NFLX is it time to buy NETFLIX and CHILL?Netflix at a very interesting level here. 38.2 fib retracement of June lows and July highs. Channel Support. Previous resistance now support? Reversal off 200dma. Seems like a plausible level to attempt a long
NETFLIX: Buy opportunity on a 4 month stretch.NFLX is trying to find support on the 1D MA200, which is at the bottom of a (longer than a year) Bullish Megaphone pattern. The 1D technical outlook is red (RSI = 36.027, MACD = -9.900, ADX = 36.923) signifying considerable upside potential and the rebound on the 30.00 oversold RSI level indicates the reversing momentum. We expect an immediate rally as part of the new bullish leg that will target the 0.786 Fibonacci (TP = 585.00).
Prior idea:
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Bullish on Netflix.
As you can see here, we have bounced off of a major trend line and the YTD VWAP as well. The MACD is about to cross and the RSI hiekin ashi has flipped from oversold to green. This is all on the daily chart.
