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Euro / U.S. Dollar

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EURUSD trade ideas

Weekly Analysis - EUR/USD"On Monthly: It seems ZigZag bouncing between 1.1200 and 1.0500 Psychological Support & Resistant are getting over and moving down. If FED doesn't lower the interest rate this month, the Bearish move will continue through January due to Trump presidency and change in GOV. All three EMA, 200, 50 and 20 are nicely Bearish. It trying to break through 1.0500 and keep the Bearish momentum. oppositely, it may create another Morning Star formation. -- On Weekly: It broke through Daily Bullish trendline and broke through 1.0500 Historical and Psychological number and it's bouncing up to most likely test the trend line again for potentially further Bearish move. All three EMA 200, 50 and 20 are Bearish as well. It seems price is racing up to trendline and/or 1.08000 Resistant, if we consider last week Doji a Bullish move. --On Daily: As I predicted last week, the formation for Inverted head & Shoulders for reversing Bearish move for a while. Although, all three EMA 200, 50 and 20 are Bearish as of now. We have to see how long EMAs will hold Bearish status. The neck of this Inverted Head & Shoulders is holding at 1.0600. -- On Hourly: It seems it going to touch 1.0600one more time. If it breaks through and confirms, Bullish move will get started. All three EMA's are below the price and Bullish. "
Long
by Ha-Lion
EURUSDWhen analyzing EUR/USD on the daily timeframe, we can identify a strong demand zone that has remained intact. Each time price taps into this zone, it drives to the upside. To gain insight into the internal price action, I’ve moved to the lower timeframe, where we’ve observed a bounce off the higher timeframe demand zone, along with a change of character. This shift indicates that buyers have stepped into the market, and price has since been printing higher highs. With this bullish momentum, some inefficiency has been left in the market. Below this inefficiency lies a demand zone that swept the previous lows and broke structure, confirming its validity. Above the inefficiency, we can see resting liquidity that needs to be swept. I’m waiting for price to take out this liquidity, fill the inefficiency, and then push to the upside, continuing the overall bullish trend. Additionally, using our Fibonacci tool, we are in the golden zone for entries, which also aligns with a discounted zone, further supporting our long bias.
Long
by EzratradesFX
EUR/USD / less Bearish, more Bullish ?!? Hello traders ,what do you think about EUR/USD? There are two main options for trading, I personally expect the price to rise at least to the specified level 1.080. The other option is that the upward correction at 4h is over and we look for continuation of the bearish movement with the aim of a new monthly LL in the direction of 1.02 and below. We've had two good bullish weeks, I think an upside is the more likely development scenario. If you think this post was useful to you, do not forget to like and comment.
by PpetroeR
Wave Five Down Ahead!!!I identify a clear double ZZ(zigzag) pattern rising from the low made on November 22 of this year. There are multiple reasons to believe the move is over we are in for a downtrend. From a momentum standpoint, we can see that the second swing-up in this move failed to exceed or even match the one of the first. The slope of the second swing is also more slanted to side, indicating a lose of buying pressure, we'd ideally like to see the price pick up momentum as we move in the second swing in a move. For the most part, the price has moved above the trend line traced connecting the lows of the move, but we have to notice we did have a slip below for a few hours before resuming above it. A move and close below this line at Sunday open will throw more solidity to this scenario. Yes this pattern can also be read to be interpreted in a bullish way if we think that it might be creating a sequence of ones and twos before third move explodes up but given the trend we are traling, which is bearish, and the other factors mentioned, I lean into the bearish scenario. Finally, the timing of this continuation down can be tricky but I believe that the volatility on Friday (likely due to NFP) nudged the price to come and take the liquidity stuck at around the 1.06315 area as highlighted by the orange circle, as well as inducing a lot of buying by breaking above those corrective levels. All that said, nothing matter if we see price break above 1.063 which was the high set on Friday. Hsppy Trading :)
by HydraFinance
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 6, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has demonstrated strong upward momentum during this week's trading session. It retreated to our designated support level, Mean Support at 1.049. Then, it bounced back vigorously to retest the significant resistance level, Mean Resistance, marked at 1.060, which was reached in the previous week's price action. The Eurodollar appears poised to move toward the target value of Inner Currency Rally 1.072 after surpassing the critical resistance level at 1.060. However, it is essential to note that the Eurodollar may retest the support level at 1.049 before continuing its upward trend.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further WeaknessEUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further Weakness The EUR/USD currency pair faces mounting pressure as economic data and central bank commentary from both sides of the Atlantic paint contrasting pictures. With the year-end approaching, traders are navigating through a mix of historical trends, updated macroeconomic indicators, and shifting monetary policy expectations. --- Eurozone: Fragility Persists Industrial and Consumer Weakness Germany's 1.5% MoM decline in industrial orders, though marginally better than expected, reflects ongoing struggles in Europe's largest economy. Additionally, retail sales in the Eurozone fell by 0.5% MoM, highlighting a weak consumer spending environment that continues to drag on growth prospects. PMI and GDP Concerns The Composite PMI edged up slightly to 48.3, but contraction persists, underscoring the broader economic challenges in the region. Italy's downward revision of GDP forecasts further dampens sentiment, increasing the likelihood of more accommodative measures from the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB's Dovish Tilt ECB policymakers, including Robert Holzmann, have signaled a potential rate cut in December, reflecting a shift towards easing amid the Eurozone's persistent economic struggles. However, political instability, such as France's no-confidence vote against President Macron, adds another layer of uncertainty to the region's economic outlook. --- United States: Resilience Amid Inflation Challenges Economic and Labor Market Data The U.S. economy continues to show signs of resilience. Durable goods orders rose 0.3% and construction spending increased by 0.4%, aligning with expectations. Despite a slight drop in the ISM Services PMI to 52.1, the economy remains in expansion mode. The labor market also remains a pillar of strength: - Nonfarm Payrolls: 227k (forecast: 220k, previous: 12k, revised: 36k). - Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (forecast: 4.1%, previous: 4.1%). - Average Earnings YoY: 4.0% (forecast: 3.9%, previous: 4.0%). While layoffs have ticked up slightly, strong payroll growth and stable wages suggest continued labor market robustness, albeit with signs of gradual cooling. Fed's Monetary Policy Path Fed officials, including John Williams and Mary Daly, have hinted at potential rate cuts in 2024, but progress on inflation appears to have stalled, as noted by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman. Market sentiment is shifting rapidly—traders now see an 85% probability of a Fed rate cut this month, up from 67% before the November jobs report. Short-term interest-rate futures have surged, reflecting growing expectations of a dovish pivot. However, the Fed remains cautious, balancing inflationary risks with economic stability. --- Inflation and Consumer Sentiment The University of Michigan's latest data reinforces the U.S. economy's resilience: - 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 2.9% (forecast: 2.7%, previous: 2.6%). - Consumer Sentiment Prelim: 74.0 (forecast: 73.2, previous: 71.8). Elevated inflation expectations and improving consumer sentiment contrast with the Eurozone's gloomy outlook, further strengthening the dollar's appeal. --- EUR/USD Outlook: Bearish Bias Remains Intact Despite historical trends that favor the euro in December, the current economic backdrop presents significant challenges for sustained appreciation. Weak Eurozone data and a dovish ECB stand in stark contrast to the U.S. economy's relative stability and the Fed's measured approach. Key Factors Driving EUR/USD: 1. Diverging Data: Strong U.S. labor and inflation figures versus weak Eurozone performance. 2. Monetary Policy: Fed's cautious flexibility versus ECB's dovish signals. 3. Sentiment Shift: Rising probability of U.S. rate cuts but with a stronger baseline economy. While seasonal trends may provide temporary relief for the euro, the broader trajectory points downward. Traders should focus on macroeconomic developments and central bank guidance as the primary drivers for the pair in the coming weeks. The euro's path to recovery remains steep, with the U.S. dollar maintaining the upper hand in the current environment.
Short
by InvestMate
Comprehensive Market Recap – December 6, 2024Comprehensive Market Recap – December 6, 2024 Today’s financial markets delivered a complex mix of optimism, geopolitical tension, and robust economic data, offering plenty for investors to analyze. Here's a deep dive into the day’s major events and their implications: --- Equities and Indices: Record Highs Amid Resilience - S&P 500 Hits Milestone: The S&P 500 registered its 57th record-high close of the year, underscoring persistent strength in U.S. equities. Solid labor market data, coupled with easing inflation concerns, fueled confidence. Market-on-close (MOC) imbalances revealed a $25 million inflow for the S&P, while Nasdaq attracted a robust $165 million. - Nasdaq Leadership Continues: The "Magnificent Seven" stocks drove $195 million in MOC inflows, reinforcing the narrative of tech dominance in market performance. - HSBC's Bold Prediction: HSBC announced an ambitious target of 6,700 for the S&P 500 by the end of 2025, signaling long-term confidence in the U.S. economy despite near-term uncertainties. --- Energy Sector: Declining Prices Amid Mixed Sentiment - Crude Oil Declines: Brent Crude settled at $71.20 per barrel (-1.35%), while WTI Crude dropped to $67.20 (-1.61%). The Saudi Energy Minister’s comments about weak Q1 demand and stockpiling concerns contributed to bearish sentiment. - Natural Gas Steady: NYMEX Natural Gas January futures settled at $3.076/MMBtu, maintaining relative stability amidst expectations of mild winter weather. - Chevron’s Optimism: Despite current price weakness, Chevron’s CEO projected record U.S. oil production in 2025, reflecting long-term confidence in energy fundamentals. --- Forex and Fixed Income: Dollar Strength and Rate Cut Expectations - Strong Dollar Performance: The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened, bolstered by robust labor market data and improved consumer sentiment. - Labor Data Surprises: U.S. nonfarm payrolls exceeded forecasts, reporting 227,000 jobs added in November (forecast: 220,000). The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings grew 0.4% MoM (forecast: 0.3%), signaling continued wage growth. - Canadian Dollar Volatility: Canada’s labor market outperformed expectations with 50.5k jobs added, yet the unemployment rate rose to 6.8%. This fueled speculation that the Bank of Canada will cut rates by 50 bps in its next meeting. --- Crypto Markets: Growing Confidence - Record Inflows: The cryptocurrency market saw an unprecedented four-week inflow of $11 billion, indicating heightened investor confidence. Today’s Crypto Fear and Greed Index stood at 72/100 (“Greed”), suggesting bullish sentiment across the market. - Regulatory Scrutiny: The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) imposed supervisory authority over Google Pay, reflecting growing regulatory oversight of digital payment and crypto-adjacent platforms. --- Central Bank Commentary: The Pivot Debate Intensifies - Federal Reserve: - Fed officials maintained a cautious tone, emphasizing the importance of incoming data. Fed’s Daly and Goolsbee hinted at slower rate adjustments moving forward, citing balanced labor market conditions and improving inflation trends. - Daly highlighted that inflation is nearing the Fed’s 2% target, while Goolsbee noted that interest rates are likely to be significantly lower in a year’s time. - Bank of England: - BoE’s Dhingra raised concerns about the restrictive nature of the current monetary policy, arguing for easing measures to prevent further damage to supply capacity and investment. - Reserve Bank of Australia: - Economists unanimously expect the RBA to hold rates steady at 4.35% in its December meeting, deferring any cuts to Q2 2025. --- Macroeconomic Indicators: Mixed Signals Across Regions United States: - Consumer Credit Boom: U.S. consumer credit surged to $19.239 billion in October (forecast: $10 billion), reflecting robust household spending and economic activity. - University of Michigan Survey: December’s preliminary data showed improved consumer sentiment (74 actual vs. 73.2 forecast), though long-term inflation expectations held at 3.1%. Eurozone: - *Steady Growth: Revised Q3 GDP figures confirmed 0.4% QoQ growth, while employment improved by 0.2%. However, German industrial production disappointed, falling -1.0% MoM in October (forecast: +1.0%). - Sanctions Deadlock: EU envoys failed to reach consensus on the 15th package of sanctions against Russia, reflecting geopolitical tensions. Asia-Pacific: - China Stimulus Hopes: Chinese equities rose on expectations of fiscal stimulus after Xinhua reported room for increased fiscal deficits in 2024. - Japanese Labor Market: Japan’s October household spending rebounded 2.9% MoM but remained weak on a YoY basis (-1.3%). Wage growth was steady at 2.6%, supporting domestic demand. --- Geopolitical Developments: Rising Tensions and Diplomacy - Middle East: Geopolitical risks escalated as reports emerged of heightened U.S. fighter activity in Syria and Israeli operations near the Lebanon-Syria border. - *Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions: The IAEA confirmed Iran’s plans to significantly increase uranium enrichment to 60% purity, a move condemned by the German Foreign Ministry as a “grave escalatory step.” - TikTok Ban Battle: TikTok's CEO announced intentions to seek U.S. Supreme Court intervention to block a ban, adding to geopolitical and regulatory tensions surrounding Chinese technology companies. --- Sector Highlights: Corporate Moves and Industry Trends - Tech Innovation in Defense: Palantir's partnership with Anduril underscores the increasing role of artificial intelligence in modern defense strategies. This announcement fueled optimism in the tech sector. - *French Political Uncertainty: Fitch Ratings highlighted deepening political and budgetary uncertainty in France following government instability, signaling potential fiscal risks. - Mercosur-EU Deal: The EU’s agreement with Mercosur is set to save European businesses €4 billion annually, highlighting progress in global trade negotiations. --- Key Takeaways and Market Outlook 1. Optimism Balanced with Caution: Strong U.S. labor data and innovation in key sectors bolster market confidence, but central banks remain cautious about the pace of easing amid persistent inflation risks. 2. Geopolitical Risk Looms: Escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns over Iran’s nuclear ambitions may weigh on energy markets and global stability. 3. Sectoral Shifts: Technology and green energy continue to dominate investor focus, with defense and AI playing critical roles in corporate strategies. Today’s market activity highlights the delicate balance between robust economic fundamentals and underlying risks. As global markets navigate these dynamics, investors should stay vigilant for potential shifts in policy, geopolitics, and macroeconomic conditions.
by InvestMate
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