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EURUSD trade ideas

EURUSD Trading Idea EUR/USD dipped 0.2% on Tuesday, marking its third straight decline as it approaches the key 1.0500 level. The Euro’s recent bullish momentum is fading, with traders shifting to a cautious stance ahead of two major events: US CPI Data (Wednesday): A pivotal release ahead of the Fed's final 2024 meeting. Inflation is expected to tick up to 2.7% YoY (from 2.6%), with core CPI holding steady at 3.3%. Any signs of stalled progress could dash hopes for a third consecutive rate cut on December 18, fueling USD volatility. ECB Rate Decision (Thursday): The ECB is widely anticipated to deliver another quarter-point rate cut. Forecasts suggest the Main Refinancing Operations Rate will be trimmed to 3.15% (from 3.4%), and the Deposit Facility Rate is expected to drop to 3.0% (from 3.25%). EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Entry Opportunity with SMC and Fibonacci Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and Fibonacci retracement, the key zone between the 0.71 and 0.79 Fibonacci levels is shaping up as a critical area of interest. Following the creation of a fair value gap at the last high, the price is now testing the 50% Fibonacci level, setting the stage for a potential trade setup. Trade Setup: Entry Point: 1.05520 (aligned with the 0.75 Fibonacci level) Stop Loss: 1.05697 (just above the 0.79 Fibonacci level for added risk protection) Take Profit: 1.04990 (targeting below the fair value gap for optimal risk-to-reward) Risk/Reward Insights: This setup offers a Risk/Reward Ratio of 2.98. By risking 17.7 pips to gain 53 pips, you're maximizing reward relative to risk. Disclaimer: Trading carries significant risks, and it’s essential to practice strict risk management. Always trade with a clear plan, use stop-loss orders, and never risk more than you can afford to lose. This analysis is not financial advice—ensure you understand the risks before making any decisions. Follow for more trading ideas, strategies, and insights to level up your trading game!
Short
by InwardTrader
Reverse Head and Shoulder patten forming in EURUSD DailyTechnical Analysis: ================ A reverse head and shoulder pattern has formed in EURUSD, if the price action continues to go up, it can gain ~300 pips. The neck line, left and right shoulders and the head of the H&S pattern are previous significant levels (means support or resistance in past). Fundamental Analysis: =================== 1) Santa Clause Rally : For whatever reason the stock market keeps going up in December, and USD should depreciate against major currency pairs including EUR 2) The VIX Index has gone down significantly due to the ceasefire between Israel and other parties There are other factors like Trump administration would consider crypto as mainstream currency, which would depreciate USD. But that might happen in 2025, we should see the H&S happening in December if the price action continues in the same/upward direction. Note: A trade idea I post here is also my trading journal.
Long
by spranav
1
Trading Signal for EUR/USD for December 13-14. 2024According to the decline of 1.06316 we sought that EUR/USD will make some pool back on the support of 1.05338, or the second support which found at 1.04903. But that tow support failed to carry the price and pushing it back higher to break the resistance which found at 1.06316. But now has you can see that EUR/USD the pare is still in sell direction after the break of 1.04903 and we have a confidence that the break of the area of support can confirm that the price will continuing going lower EUR/USD has always moved within trend channels. So. we believe that there could be a technical correction below 1.04403. Thus, the price could reach the 1.03479 area. Technically, we expect a range of price movements between 1.03344 and 1.03957. Once again i want to remand you that the downtrend started three months ago and remains intact in the medium term. The movement that we have seen in recent weeks is a correction Therefore, we expect the correction to be completed, the price to consolidate below the line.
by CEO-PREMIUM-ANALYSIS
EUR/USD 4H Timeframe AnalysisEUR/USD 4H Timeframe Analysis Trend: In the 4H timeframe, EUR/USD is in a downtrend. The price broke below the major support at 1.06200 and then retested, which has now become our major key resistance zone. The price then dropped further to the next minor support at 1.0330,then moved up, created a gap, and filled it for a short time. Following this, the price started creating lower lows and lower highs until it returned to the major key resistance. There, an inverted hammer was followed by a bearish engulfing candle, signaling a potential price reversal. Additionally, the price broke the rising wedge chart pattern and retested the minor resistance at 1.05300. Afterward, the price moved lower and broke below the minor support. Price Action Expectation: We expect another reversal at the minor key resistance. Once the price breaks the resistance, triggering stop-loss liquidations from sellers, we anticipate a move downward. If the price moves back below the minor support, we will enter a sell stop order below the minor support at 1.04908, with a stop loss at 1.05490 (between the liquidity area). Our take profit target will be the next minor support at 1.03360. Trade Setup: Sell Stop Entry: 1.04908 Stop Loss: 1.05490 (between the liquidity area) Take Profit: 1.03360 (next minor support) Risk: 1% Fundamental Outlook: The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the highs, although it’s stronger against commodity currencies. In the broader picture, the market has likely reached the peak in the repricing of interest rate expectations. It will take stronger catalysts to further price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This environment supports the US Dollar and could keep downward pressure on EUR/USD in the near term.
Short
by RebornFXTrader
Bullish Opportunity: Buy Setup at support Ahead of Key CPIWe are looking to buy at 1.050 area Key Levels: Entry: 1.050 (support level) Take Profit (TP): 1.05979 Stop Loss (SL): Adjust to match your preferred risk-to-reward ratio. 1.045 is a reasonable SL The price is expected to find support near 1.050, with the potential for a bullish rebound toward the resistance zone at 1.05979. Bespoke resistance lies further up at 1.064 providing longer-term bullish potential if this level breaks. Caution: This trade setup assumes that the US CPI data due tomorrow will come out weaker than expected, which could favor a bullish move in this pair. Monitor the news closely before committing to this trade, as stronger-than-expected CPI figures could invalidate the setup.
Long
by Eleazarahmath
AMD 1. Accumulation What Happens? Smart money (institutions) accumulates large positions quietly, ensuring they don’t move the market significantly. This occurs in a range-bound phase (consolidation) where prices trade within support and resistance levels. How to Spot? Look for low volatility and decreasing volume. Price shows little directional movement, forming tight ranges. Wyckoff patterns like "Spring" may appear, where price briefly dips below support to trap sellers. What to Do? Identify the range and mark key support and resistance levels. Avoid trading during this phase until a breakout or manipulation begins. 2. Manipulation What Happens? Smart money manipulates the market to create liquidity. They do this by triggering stop-loss orders or inducing retail traders into positions. This phase includes fake breakouts, sharp moves, and increased volatility. How to Spot? Sudden price spikes through key levels (e.g., above resistance or below support), followed by a reversal. Bull and bear traps occur to lure traders into the wrong side of the market. Increased volume during these moves indicates institutional activity. What to Do? Be cautious of chasing moves during this phase. Wait for confirmation of the manipulation ending, often signaled by a return to the accumulation or breakout levels. 3. Distribution What Happens? Smart money distributes their positions at premium prices, typically after manipulating the market to push prices higher or lower. This is the phase where trends (upward or downward) are fully established and driven by momentum. How to Spot? Strong directional moves with increasing volume. Breakout of the previous accumulation range, confirmed by a retest. Trend continuation patterns like higher highs and higher lows (uptrend) or lower highs and lower lows (downtrend). What to Do? Enter trades in the direction of the trend, ensuring confirmation. Use tools like Fibonacci retracements and extensions to identify profit targets. Follow proper risk management to capitalize on the trend without overexposing. Practical Trading Tips for AMD Strategy Combine with ICT Concepts: If you use ICT strategies, align AMD with tools like liquidity zones, order blocks, and fair value gaps. Key Levels: Focus on institutional levels like psychological levels, daily/weekly highs and lows, and previous session levels. Timeframes: Use higher timeframes (H1, H4, or Daily) to identify AMD phases and lower timeframes (M5, M15) for precise entries. Patience: AMD requires waiting for each phase to develop; avoid impulsive trades.
by RBSBALA
Forecasting the EUR/USDForecasting the EUR/USD exchange rate is a complex endeavor influenced by numerous factors. Here's a breakdown of key considerations: Factors Influencing EUR/USD: Economic Data: Eurozone: GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, interest rate decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB) United States: GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve (Fed) Monetary Policy: Interest rate differentials between the ECB and the Fed significantly impact currency values. Political Events: Geopolitical risks, elections, and political instability in either the Eurozone or the US can cause market volatility. Global Risk Appetite: Investor sentiment towards risk assets (like stocks) can influence currency flows. Commodity Prices: Changes in the price of oil and other commodities can impact the Eurozone and the US differently, affecting their respective currencies. Current Market Sentiment: As of December 2024: Short-term: Some analysts predict a potential upward trajectory for EUR/USD in the near term, with targets around 1.0953 to 1.0937 by September. However, volatility is expected to increase. Medium-term: Forecasts suggest a potential range for EUR/USD in 2025 between 1.03 and 1.14. Disclaimer: Forecasts are not guarantees: Currency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable. This information is for general knowledge and does not constitute financial advice. Where to Find More Information: Financial News Websites: Reliable sources like Reuters, Bloomberg, and Yahoo Finance provide real-time market data, news, and analyst commentary. Brokerage Platforms: Many online brokers offer tools like economic calendars and market analysis to help traders make informed decisions. Key Considerations for Traders: Fundamental Analysis: Understand the economic and political factors driving currency movements. Technical Analysis: Use charts and technical indicators to identify trends and potential trading opportunities. Risk Management: Implement stop-loss orders and position sizing strategies to limit potential losses. I recommend conducting thorough research and consulting with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
by ITManager_US
Euro-dollar struggles to find directionTraders have mostly discounted the latest single cut by the European Central Bank (‘the ECB’) since that was widely expected and the comments in the subsequent press conference didn’t give any significant new information. Inflation has also risen in the eurozone in the last two months but hasn’t reached as high as in the USA. The difference in rates between the ECB and the Fed is likely to remain at least 1% for the foreseeable future. After a bounce at the end of November following the failed test of $1.04, euro-dollar hasn’t shown ongoing momentum upward. It might now fall into a sideways trend with a range between around $1.04 and $1.06. Most indicators are close to neutral in the shorter term but the main downtrend active in October and November could reassert itself depending on the reaction to the Fed’s meeting and, to a lesser extent, PCE and GDP.
by Exness_Official