EURPLN trade ideas
EUR|PLN - Short OpportunityThere is an opportunity to short the EUR|PLN coming off the top of the descending channel .
H&S pattern on EURPLNThis is a short-term retracement that is expected to take place after such a dynamic impulse.
TA:
H&S pattern, confirmed by divergence on RSI and falling volume
falling RSI
I didn't want to mess up the chart so I excluded from it the Ichimoku indicator. We just broke into the Ichimoku cloud. What is more the cloud i reversing - turning red. Those are bearish signals.
From a fundamental perspective:
Capital in times of panic and distress is migrating from emerging markets (Poland is still regarded as such by many investors) toward US treasuries.
What is more the current interest rate in Poland is at it's historical low: 1% which combined with an accelerating inflation (around 5%) doesn't makes the polish bond market a tempting destination. During the next waves of market panic the polish Zloty will face a strong devaluation against major currencies.
I think this retracement will be just a preparation for another bull run on EURPLN.
I expect the price to fall till 4.38 PLN level and meet a very strong resistance zone that have been acting as a major support/resistence level for the last decade.
+ we will probably touch the 200 MA which will also act as a support level.
From that point I expect the EURPLN to explode north with a final destination around 5 PLN.
This is a bold call so please... appreciate it ;)
GL & HF ;)
Corona yet to comeCorona has not yet hit Poland to its full extend.
With its healthcare system in pretty bad shape, this can turn out pretty badly.
Looking to sell at historic all time high.
What's going to happen with PLN-EUR and PLN-CHF ?Here we go again: PLN will go strongly down while EUR and CHF will strengthen
MULTI YEAR TRIANGLEPrice moves in multi year triangle and currently in last wave E.
As wave E is about to finish I expect continuation to upside with target around 5.3000 level.
You can try to entry traditional way after breakout of triangle or if you more aggressive trader you can look for setups on lower time frames as last wave E might end very soon and we should have a major reversal.
EURPLN loosing momentum to the upside, look for sortsLong momentum has been slowing down and strong bearish momentum candle has appeared while rejecting the resistance level.
sort to the broken structure
i suggest taking half profit out at 1rr and moving stop loss at break even
EUR/PLN will continue its rally towards a major uptrend resistanThe pair will continue its rally towards a major uptrend resistance line. Poland's unemployment rate grew for the third consecutive month to 5.5%. Though its part of the country’s unemployment cycle, the increase in M3 Money Supply is threatening to weaken the Polish zloty. M3 includes coins and notes in circulation and other assets that are convertible to cash, and short-term and long-term bank deposits. The increase in M3 for the month of March 2020 is 9.3%, higher than its previous record of 8.3%. It is also higher than the 8.8% increase forecasted by analysts. This will be catastrophic for its already high inflation rate at 4.4%. Meanwhile, the Eurozone recorded a slump in M3 at 5.0% from 5.6% in February, also lower from 5.5% expectations. The control in money supply will be good for its inflation data and for its economy. The weak economy will also weaken the political stance of Poland in the European Union.
ridethepig | PLN Market Commentary 2020.02.19The outflows from Poland have been staggering to say the least, large sharks abandoning ship before the storm reaches shore. Notice how the NBP (National Bank of Poland) has been dovish even though inflation ticks higher ...everything is fine right...
We traded the PLN devaluation versus CZK previously, now I prefer EURPLN longs as my 'weapon' of choice. There is room for a leg into 4.3075x and 4.333x as the extension.
Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc. An important round of G10 and EM macro FX charts coming over the next few sessions ...
