Long Entry, excellent buying opportunityI know the whole UAW strike is a thing, but technical analysis-wise this is an excellent entry point. Write puts, buy calls do whatever.
Use a stoploss please
thanks
4F trade ideas
$F: Going sub 11.34 would be the kiss of deathI think NYSE:F offers a very low risk short opportunity here, it merely needs to break under $11.34 to cascade down into a waterfall decline...
Technical chart targets are clear, and indicate a substantial drop can take place, aided by declining fundamentals in the shape of UAW strikes and a rising trend in Union bargaining power, combined with rising costs for materials and declining sales in the face of NASDAQ:TSLA demolishing legacy competition make this a compelling short.
In short: a sh#tstorm coming for ICE makers. We could see many bankruptcies in legacy automakers.
Best of luck if taking the trade.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Ford's (F) Q3 Earnings to Get a Boost From Blue and Pro SegmentsFord F is set to release its third-quarter 2023 results on Oct 26, after the closing bell. The focal point of the auto giant’s earnings release will be its global wholesale volumes from the Ford Blue and Ford Pro segments.
Q2 Highlights
Ford reported adjusted earnings of 72 cents per share for second-quarter 2023, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 51 cents and increased from 68 cents recorded in the year-ago quarter. Higher-than-expected automotive revenues resulted in the outperformance. The company’s consolidated second-quarter revenues came in at $44,954 million, rising 11.8% year over year.
In the second quarter, total wholesale volume in the Ford Blue and Ford Pro segments increased 7% year over year to 720,000 units and 8% year over year to 365,000, respectively. EBIT from Ford Blue and Pro units came in at $2,308 million and $2,391 million, respectively.
Ford reported adjusted free cash flow (FCF) of $2,919 million during the quarter. It had cash and cash equivalents of $26,406 million as of Jun 30, 2023. Long-term debt, excluding Ford Credit, totaled $19.17 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2023.
Factors at Play
While Ford Blue focuses on the firm’s legacy gas-powered business, Ford Pro deals with commercial vehicles and services. Expected higher year-over-year growth in global wholesale shipments and adjusted EBIT from these segments are likely to have positively impacted Ford’s upcoming results.
Our estimate for global wholesale shipments from Ford Blue and Ford Pro segments is pegged at 750,000 and 382,000 units, suggesting a year-over-year uptick of 1.2% and 19%, respectively. Our forecast for third-quarter Ford Blue and Ford Pro adjusted EBIT implies an uptick of 6.2% and a whopping 370.1% on a year-over-year basis.
The combination of Ford Pro's strong order books and the successful launch of the all-new Super Duty set the stage for promising results for the Ford Pro segment. In the quarter under discussion, Ford's commercial vans, led by the Transit van, continued to perform strongly. Transit van sales surged by 28.3%, with 34,006 vans sold, maintaining its position as America's top-selling commercial van. Ford E-Series vans also saw a 13.4% increase in the third quarter. Ford held the top spot in commercial sales, with a 40.5% market share, up 2.1% from the previous year. The Ford Pro segment is expected to have benefited from high demand for E-Transit vans. In the third quarter, the California Vanpool Authority (CalVans) announced the purchase of over 400 new Ford E-Transit vans through Model 1, a leading electric school bus distributor, expanding its fleet by 40% and reducing its fuel and CO2 emissions in California.
Ford Blue segment is set to reflect benefits from high ICE-powered vehicles, which rose 5.4% year over year to 444,681 units in the third quarter of 2023. Notably, the 2024 Ford Mustang debuted in August and for the third quarter, it recorded 9,844 sales, with the first full month of sales occurring in September. Notably, 67% of the Mustang's third-quarter sales, equating to 6,575 units, were realized in September.
Overall Earnings & Revenue Projections
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Ford as it has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a favorable Zacks Rank. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
The company has an Earnings ESP of +14.57% as the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged 6 cents higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate. F currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
FORD, F, to target 11.95, 12.1 soonFORD , NYSE, on the 30-min chart is showing a positive signal for rebound to 11.95, and then target 12.1 soon.
RSI technical indicator is in the buy area
The red Stop Loss line (support line) should be considered.
EDUCATIONAL: F 200%+ move in 82-84I want to start periodically sharing my retrospective analysis of market leaders, that made triple digits gains during bull markets in different time-periods.
The purpose of this analysis is to find commonalities in price patterns and behaviour among the best-performing stocks, that repeat themselves in each and every up-cycle throughout market history. That will help new stock market participants to better exploit new emerging opportunities.
As my stock market history teacher - John Boik - use to say it: "Study the past, so you can profit in the future".
Retrospective analysis of Ford ( NYSE:F ) during 1982-194:
0. Great Relative strength. When SPX (see the upper chart) makes lower lows, FORD is making higher highs on noticeable pick-up in average daily volume. Also notice who price creates a flat-base and latter breaks out (BO) from it with volume surging above average;
1. First BUY could be made here with very tight 3% stop, a bit or right after W. O'Neil's «shake-out + 10%» rule (buy if price shakes you out and quickly reverse and runs higher by 10%) after the double bottom pattern in the bottom of the base.
2. Because of the bear market nature of the general index, quick 12-15% gain could be used to trim 1/2 or 2/3 of the position to guaranty profits, and selling the rest for break-even during the following re-test of break-out area;
3. Could be bought again during the BO of perfect VCP with tight 2.5% stop, and...
4. ...sold for the quick 5-7x return-to-risk gain.
5. When the index makes its final lower-low, F's price rebases, making a higher-low, and quickly runs higher and breaks out in Aug82 along with the SnP500.
F could be bought and shaked out during initial BO attempt, and then re-bought after price follows through in two days with volume support.
Notice how price pattern rhythms with prior Dec81-Mar82 base.
6. This big red reversal bar with substantial volume pick-up could be used to book another 15-17% gain with only initial 3-4% stop.
7. It is already clear that F is the new market leader of this new up-trend and it makes sense to track how the price acts if it corrects to 50MA (Red line) that coincides with re-tests of prior BO point.
If to zoom in into the volume dynamics of this basing actions around 50D MA, accumulation (surge in volume with closes in in upper part of the bar dominate volume on corrective bars) becomes very evident.
8. New BUY coming from this low cheat BO with massive volume support. Because the average cost was so low, one may want to move stop to break-even or tracing 50D MA.
9. Price closed in the upper third of the day - good supportive actions on the 50D MA. If stopped-out, shares could be re-bought by the end of the day or on next day BO with tight stop and low of the day.
10. Shares could be sold into this kind of climactic run above the 7 month channel line + the general market barely moves to old highs indicating relative divergence and lack of overall momentum in the market.
11. Good tight area. Could have been bought at BO and sold at BE after the BO proved to be fake one.
12. New BUY under shake-out + 10% rule with stop bellow
50D MA after it crosses the buy price. Massive volume advance on BO day acts as confirmation of large institutional interest in the stock (notice how these green volume sky-scrapers bars tend to dominate the red selling bars latter-on until the up-trend changes).
Notice again how the price shows the same character shake-out pattern it made during Dec81-Mar82 and May-Aug82. As Nicolas Darvas observed that "stocks have characters just like people".
13. Perfect selling area: price moves above the channel line in negative divergence to the market (index is not making higher-highs).
14. Same type of character behaviour with shake-out and Mark Minervine's «slingshot» move on volume support, where «shake-out +10%» buy rule could be used to establish the position with tight stop bellow the short-term 8/21emas.
15. Sell 3/4 of position or all in this first evident distribution bar + the market seems tired and is loosing momentum.
Very noticeable distribution bars starting to appear - some heavy selling and not much buying.
Important sign of character change.
16. This low volume pattern during this up-move shows that late retail buyers are stepping in with no institutional support.
That is the hint that price advance is prone to failure.
17. Definite selling signal. Price dives bellow 50MA with substantial distribution started dominating the volume pattern.
$F - Can it bounce this time around?NYSE:F Uh oh! If Ford tests the $11 area again, I'm not sure it can bounce back this time.
The $11 area has been a major support that held for the past six times. Breaking below that support would be a significant setback for the bulls, and the price could potentially drop further to the $9 area.
F (FORD) Wait For BuyAnalyzing Ford on the daily time frame, you can see that over the course of a month, Ford has fallen sharply after breaking out of the target completion corner pattern (price limited to $15). And its price return from the 11 range is not strong and you can see uncertain doji candles that there is a high probability that it will reach the 11 dollar range again. And since this range is a strong support zone, we could see a sharp bounce to the upside in the $11 range. In this pattern, double bottom are formed. And we chose the TARGET POINT based on this scenario. If it falls below $11, this scenario is violated !!.
Buying Ford at trend of higher lows.Ford - 30d expiry - We look to Buy at 11.71 (stop at 11.11)
Trend line support is located at 11.60.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
The sequence for trading is higher highs and lows.
11.58 has been pivotal.
We look for a temporary move lower.
In our opinion this stock is undervalued.
Our profit targets will be 13.21 and 13.61
Resistance: 12.35 / 12.91 / 13.20
Support: 12.16 / 11.90 / 11.58
Please be advised that the in formation presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group
FORD Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 091923 Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 12.8/61.80%
Chart time frame : B
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress : B
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) Hit the bottom
D) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provide these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day
F going long based on 8 days ago Alpha candleThere is nothing exciting, but F might be going higher into 14.50 range. Stop loss is around 11.50 which gives 1:2 risk reward ratio.
Ford "Run & drive" 16,09 and more
"Regarding my trading strategy, it is currently bullish. Until we are above the Hoss window that formed on May 25th, I will remain bullish. Specifically, at the point where we could reach the closure of the Hoss window, I will place my 'conditional' stop-loss (in the form of an alert). If two bearish candles close below the level of 11.52 with their bodies, only then will the trade be closed. If one candle goes below the specified level but the bulls show their strength the next day, I will stay in the game.
I'm placing my first take profit at 16.09, where the first part of the semi-closed Bess window is located. Further actions will be updated in the trading view."
Translate chatgpt ;)
Please note that this translation might require some context about the specific trading terms and indicators you're using for a more accurate translation.
FORD Struggling on the 4hour MA200 but bullish nonetheless.Ford Motor / F hit the 4hour MA200 on Wednesday and got rejected, turning sideways.
As long as the 4hour MA50 holds, this is just the consolidation of the uptrend that started on August 25th.
There have been another 3 similar bullish waves in the past 12 months, all of which reached at least the middle of the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci Zone.
Technically this is another such signal, so buy and target 13.70 (middle of the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci).
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
on the watchlist 👀F perfect bounce from extreme support zone, now watching for break past pivot level/13.23 and we should head straight to 15.35🎯
boost and follow for more.. thanks 💛
Ford is still within the rangeFord is still within the range
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of Ford Motor Company's stock from 2020 to present. The graph overlays the bottom to top golden section at the beginning of 2020. As shown in the figure, after peaking in early 2022, Ford Motor's company stock directly retreated to the 2.000 level above the bottom of the golden split in the figure, and began a one-year period of fluctuating consolidation of the market! At present, Ford Motor Company's stock is still within the range of volatility consolidation, and there is no sign of any strength to break through the existing range!
A Simple Method Of Evaluating Trade Setups For Everyone - IIThis second video reinforces the concepts supporting my simple method of validating or invalidating trade setups using price channels, Fibonacci price theory, Stochastics, RSI, and simple price metrics.
Anyone can do this - it just takes a little patience and learning.
The trick to the ENTRY is to WAIT to see how price reacts near support/resistance.
REJECTION is very important in terms of seeing price REJECT near the price channels and near support/resistance.
Learn to use these techniques to help you learn to become a better trader.
Hope you enjoy.
Ford is a Bargan.Ford is going for a retest at support
Have huge RSI Divergences
Local trendline break
Fib Golden Zone
Retesting long term trendline
.
Last chance to buy FFord is at a huge discount right now.
DMI about to have a bullish convergence to further push price action higher.
Please use a stoploss. Entry is $12
Long Bias on FordFord Has broken out of a triangle retail formation and has successfully retested strong levels of support. Ford will continue to push higher if reoccurring positive news comes out and it follows a positive correlation in its fundamental side, positive returns, profitability, etc. This is not a day trade but rather a long term hold. Ford has made similar movements and analyzing its historical data, its very likely that this trade will play out right. The take profit is extended to a 200% mark on the fib and that is a final TP, take profits along the way, secure your position with a stop loss and be safe out there! Anything can happen.
Ford Motor Company (F) - On the Road to Recovery with Key LevelsFord Motor Company (F) has been showcasing a strong financial performance, consistently beating earnings expectations for the past four quarters. The most recent Q2 2023 earnings came in at $0.44 per share, surpassing the estimated $0.39 per share. Moreover, revenues spiked by 15% YoY to $36.2 billion.
#### What's Driving the Performance?
1. **Global Automotive Market Recovery**: The automotive industry is rebounding, and Ford is reaping the benefits.
2. **Electric Vehicle Focus**: Ford's concentrated efforts on EVs are paying off.
3. **Cost-Cutting Initiatives**: Aggressive cost-cutting measures are also adding to the bottom line.
#### Analyst Expectations:
For 2023, the earnings are projected to rise to $1.85 per share, a jump from $1.02 in 2022. Annual revenues are anticipated to mark a 10% YoY growth, reaching $177.2 billion. The next earnings report is slated for October 24, 2023, with expectations at $0.46 per share.
#### Key Risks:
- Slowdown in the automotive market recovery
- Fluctuating demand for electric vehicles
- Supply chain disruptions
#### Option Play (risky and not a financial advice):
Considering the current option landscape, a call option with a strike price of $13 expiring on 19 Jan 2024 is worth keeping an eye on. The fair price, according to the Black-Scholes model, is around $1.25, currently trading at $0.66, signaling a potential undervaluation.
#### Important Levels to Watch:
- $12.8: Near-term resistance
- $13.5: Medium-term target
- $14.55: Bullish breakout level
In summary, Ford appears well-positioned for continued recovery, particularly with its focus on electric vehicles and it’s one of the biggest US company in that field. However, potential risks like a market slowdown or supply chain issues could impact performance. Keep an eye on the aforementioned key levels for trading opportunities. Dr saud
F hold support or break F has bounced off this 11.14 several times. Cannot seem to get much off this spot. Do you see strong support or a wall that keeps getting hit and eventually breaks? I see it breaking support and filling the gaps below. an entry below $6 in the future may be a good zone to buy. Thoughts?
FORD $F | Longer Term Demand Zone Ford, a Popular American AutoMaker has been having a struggling stock performance since its 2021 rally. This stock has continued to rally upwards and melt back down towards this $11-$12 area. What we are witnessing now is a retest of these same levels that previously sent the stock back upwards with volume.
I am keeping my eye on Ford at these levels as historically this stock bounces from this demand zone. This demand zone is heavy, as highlighted in green, and will also be having support from a diagonal trendline around the $11.40 level helping support prices of $F.
With this large area for support considering the Demand Zone & the diagonal trendline retest, I believe that this area of price levels gives a solid Risk/Reward Entry on a Long Position on $F.
A break below this trendline would be a good exit point, as the stock could probably dump underneath heavily. With this Risk/Reward entry point, a swing position can be attractive or a LT entry. I am just pointing out these levels, as I think it can be an interesting area to watch the stock react to, and thought I'd share!
Happy Trading!
long entryIf this breakout above the wedge holds, we have confluence with the MACD bullish crossover as well as a bullish DMI crossover on the horizon.
Please use a stoploss, and wait to make sure that the daily candle closes above the wedge.
Thanks,
