Wajani Investments Analysis
6J1 is currently having it first rest from 0 to 1 with resistance becomes support. I see the bulls active in the days ahead.
Let me know your thoughts.
FCUYF2025 trade ideas
Decoding the Yen: Strategies for the Upcoming ExpirationIn the Yen, our 'old friend' has opened a Straddle, just like he’s done several times this year. Notably, he’s picking a 5-day expiration, which is his signature move tha twe can use to track him. So, this time, the range boundaries are as shown on the chart.
Keep in mind that this is a futures contract on the Yen, not the USD/JPY forex pair. In other words, the quotes are inverted. To get what’s on the screen, you need to do 1/USDJPY.
But it’s way easier to just use the TV options and select '6JZ2024'
6J1!: Yen Strengthens Ahead of Ueda's InsightsThe Japanese Yen (6J1!) has been demonstrating notable strength against its American counterpart throughout the Asian trading session, as traders position themselves ahead of a highly anticipated appearance by Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda Kazuo later today. His remarks on the economic outlook, inflation dynamics, and the timeline for potential interest rate hikes will play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment and influencing the trajectory of the Yen.
As we approach Ueda's address, there is a palpable sense of anticipation in the markets. Investors are keen to understand how the BoJ plans to navigate the current economic landscape, particularly in light of growing inflationary pressures and global economic uncertainties. With the central bank grappling with the balancing act of stimulating growth while containing inflation, Governor Ueda's insights will be closely scrutinized for clues on the BoJ's monetary policy direction.
Nonetheless, there remains an undercurrent of uncertainty regarding the prospect of further policy tightening by the BoJ. This hesitation among traders may hinder the aggressive positioning of JPY bulls, leading to more cautious trading behavior as they await clearer signals from the central bank. The market's apprehension is evident, as many participants remain wary of overcommitting until Ueda provides more clarity on the BoJ's stance.
From a technical analysis perspective, the rebound in the Yen’s price has been particularly notable, as it has entered what we identify as a demand zone. This area indicates a clear oversold condition, which suggests that the currency may be primed for a reversal. The fact that retail traders are significantly short on the Yen adds another layer of intrigue; if the anticipated bullish movement occurs, these short positions could lead to a rapid shift in market dynamics.
Our forecasting models indicate that, when looking back over the last ten years, there is a strong possibility for the Yen to enter a bullish phase soon. Historical patterns suggest that, following periods of significant oversold conditions, the Yen has often embarked on upward price movements. As such, the current environment may present a unique opportunity for those looking to capitalize on potential appreciation of the currency.
As we await Ueda’s comments, all eyes will be on how his insights might either reinforce or challenge the current market sentiments surrounding the Yen. Any indications of a future tightening of monetary policy could catalyze a swift rally, while ambiguity could lead to heightened volatility. Ultimately, the interplay between investor sentiment, technical signals, and central bank communication will determine the Yen's trajectory in the hours and days ahead.
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Weekly FOREX Forecast: BUY USD vs EUR GBP AUD NZD CAD CHf JPYThis is an outlook for the week of Nov 4 - 8th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets: EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF and JPY.
The USD is strong and showing no signs of weakness. This video analyses which of the major pairs are the best markets to look for the best setups for the week ahead.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Bullish Yen Futures Trade IdeaYen futures are gaining traction as risk-off sentiment takes hold following the Federal Reserve's rate cut and ongoing global economic uncertainty. With the U.S. dollar showing signs of weakness, the yen is poised to strengthen as investors seek safer assets.
Longterm Yen Bottom - Defensive PlayI think this is a major turning spot for equities/crypto/gold and people should pile into YEN. I think YCL (2x yen) or whatever other instrument you want to use bullish Yen is at an amazing longterm play here.
Bullish Yen Futures Trade IdeaOn the current chart, Yen futures are showing early signs of strength, supported by a weaker dollar environment and potential risk-off sentiment. After consolidating at a key support level, bullish momentum appears to be building, suggesting a possible continuation toward the next resistance zones.
Bullish Yen Futures Trade IdeaLooking for upside in yen futures as safe-haven demand increases. Persistent global uncertainties, alongside moderating U.S. economic momentum, could drive buyers into the yen, positioning it for gains
Bullish Yen FuturesExpecting yen futures to push higher as market sentiment shifts toward safe-haven assets. Current global uncertainties and yen strength indicate potential gains, with targets set at recent resistance levels. Stops are set below nearby support to manage risk on this move.
What October 25th's Options Portfolio Tells Us About the YenOur analysis of options portfolios from October 25th revealed a Straddle setup on the Japanese yen futures, with a short expiration date set for November 1, 2024. Now, this isn’t exactly a rare sight for the yen; these Straddle portfolios pop up pretty regularly, especially when we’re looking at short expiration periods.
From what we've seen, in about 4 out of 5 cases, the quotes tend to hang around the Straddle boundaries and often bounce off them. A recent example? August 5th—prices hit the upper limit at 149.20 (that’s the spot quote) and then bounced back nicely, giving savvy traders a sweet opportunity to jump into a short position on the dollar with a solid risk/reward ratio.
So, what's the takeaway here? Use those Straddle boundaries to open positions in the spot/forex market. It makes sense to trade in the direction of the main trend, which means looking for a drop in the yen against the dollar when prices hit that upper boundary—check out #1 for a visual.
Now, I can hear the skeptics asking: what's the rationale behind these price movements at the Straddle boundaries? After all, a Straddle is just a straightforward strategy that involves buying volatility and betting on price movement. True, that’s the textbook definition, but it’s just scratching the surface. The real insights and "battle-tested applications" of this strategy are way more intricate than they seem.
Stay tuned for our updates, and you’ll definitely uncover the hidden meanings and value of options analysis for the everyday forex trader. Trust me, these insights can give you a real edge in the market. It’s worth your time and effort!
REASON TO BUY JPY PAIRSAs we can see japanese yen is heading to the downside after break desceding triangle pattern as a sing of bearish momentum.
JPY Faces Further Downside as DXY Surges on Powell's RemarksThe US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen sharply, nearing the 101.00 level, in response to recent comments made by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell’s remarks signaled that while the Fed remains cautious about future rate cuts, any adjustments would be gradual, contributing to the strengthening of the US Dollar. This move has had ripple effects across currency pairs, most notably with the Japanese Yen (JPY), which has begun a reversal from a key supply area that was identified in our analysis last week.
The price action of the JPY has played out as anticipated, with the pair hitting our first take profit target. The reversal came as the US Dollar gained momentum, pushing the Yen lower. You can view the previous analysis that accurately predicted this movement in the following idea:
As we look ahead to the upcoming trading sessions, a potential for further bearish momentum in the JPY is on the horizon. The next significant catalysts for the market will be today’s release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings data from the US. Should these reports come in stronger than expected, it could fuel another bullish impulse for the US Dollar, potentially driving the DXY higher and triggering further downside for the Yen.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a critical indicator of the health of the US manufacturing sector, and positive results would signal continued economic expansion, lending further strength to the Dollar. The JOLTS Job Openings data, which provides insight into labor market conditions, will also be closely watched. A strong labor market reading would add to the case for the Fed to take a measured approach to rate cuts, reinforcing the current bullish sentiment surrounding the USD.
Given these dynamics, traders should remain alert for the possibility of a fresh bearish wave in the JPY, especially if the US economic data reinforces the current narrative of USD strength. The technical setup from last week’s supply area continues to offer a solid framework for managing positions, with further take profit levels within reach should the bearish trend in the Yen persist.
In conclusion, the DXY’s rise near 101.00, supported by Powell’s comments, has already triggered a significant move in the JPY, and the upcoming ISM and JOLTS data could provide additional fuel for further bearish action. Traders should keep an eye on key levels and be prepared for another bearish impulse in the JPY if the USD continues its upward march.
✅ Please share your thoughts about JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
6j Yen Short SwingsI have been watching the Yen carefully since July. This upswing has provided a healthy reset but current price action represents the tide turning back to the short side which fundamentally supports Japans struggle to maintain currency value. The risk/reward makes sense to me and I'm actively watching for swing shorts with .006700 target. The daily chart is presenting a great entry point as old support now becomes resistance.
I'll post the entry if/when it's made. Timeline is before November (US Elections)
GJ (GBPJPY) IS GOING SUPER LONG!! DONT. MISS. THIS. MOVE!!Please watch and dont miss this great move on GJ. There are so many great reasons why GBPJPY is ready to go long. Watch this video
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 23-27 USD EUR GBP AUD NZD CAD CHF JPYThis is Part 2 of the Weekly Forex Forecast for SEPT 23-27th.
In this video, we will cover:
USD Index, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
COT Strategy - SHORT JAPANESE YENDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Japanese Yen (6J)
My COT strategy has me on alert for new short trades in 6J if we get additional bearish entry triggers (this week a divergence entry triggered short).
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Valuation: Overvalued vs Gold & Treasuries
Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Small Specs most long they have been in 3 years = bearish.
OI Analysis: OI has been increasing on up move. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the OI increase"? When it is caused by Large Specs & Small Specs, it is bearish.
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency to go down to October.
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: %R
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 16-20 USD EUR GBP AUD NZD CAD CHF JPYThis is Part 2 of the Weekly Forex Forecast for SEPT 16-20th.
In this video, we will cover:
USD Index, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
JPY Futures Drop as Fed Rate Cut Speculation GrowsJPY futures have fallen below the 0.007134 level, driven by rising speculation of significant interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. As market participants brace for potential monetary easing, the U.S. dollar has faced increased pressure, leading to weakness across several pairs, including JPY. Investors expect the Fed to reduce interest rates by up to 100 basis points by the end of the year, which has become a key factor influencing the broader currency market.
Key Market Dynamics: Fed and BoJ Rate Expectations
The growing belief that the Federal Reserve will pursue aggressive rate cuts has been weighing heavily on the U.S. dollar, with many anticipating a softer policy stance in response to slowing economic growth and inflation concerns. This dovish outlook has provided some support for the yen, even as Japan’s economic conditions remain stable.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to maintain its interest rates steady at 0.25% when it meets on Friday. While the BoJ has been cautious with rate adjustments, keeping its ultra-low rate policy in place, the potential disparity between the Fed’s and BoJ’s stances could further impact JPY futures in the coming days.
Technical Outlook: Rebound from Supply Area Signals Bearish Sentiment
From a technical perspective, JPY futures have rebounded off a key supply area, a zone that has previously acted as resistance. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report paints a divided picture, with retail traders showing extreme bullishness on the yen, suggesting expectations of further strength. However, institutional investors, often referred to as “smart money,” remain strongly bearish on the currency, signaling their belief that the recent uptick may be short-lived.
This divergence in sentiment provides a clear opportunity for a short position, as the bearish outlook from institutional players suggests that the yen could face downward pressure once the initial bullish momentum subsides.
Looking Ahead: Short Position Setup
Given the current technical setup and the wider macroeconomic backdrop, we are positioning for a short trade on JPY futures. With the price having already bounced off a significant supply area and smart money positioning heavily on the bearish side, a reversal looks increasingly likely. Furthermore, if the Fed’s anticipated rate cuts materialize, the U.S. dollar could stabilize or even rebound, adding further downside pressure to JPY futures.
In the meantime, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan's respective decisions, as they will be the critical drivers of yen movement in the short term.
✅ Please share your thoughts about JPY in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
6JV2024: Top of the Market? Looking for lower price in the October 2024 Yen Futures.
(In my analysis) The higher time frame charts are in play as the market dances around 4H, D, and W structure levels. We will have to keep a close eye on intaday, and intraweek, price action to see where the market finds support or resistance. Stay tuned!
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEP 9-13th USD EUR GBP AUD NZD CAD CHF JPYThis is Part 1 of the Weekly Forex Forecast for SEPT 9-13th.
In this video, we will cover:
USD Index, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Smart Money Positioned to SHORT JPY - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Japanese Yen (6J)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in 6B if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Valuation: Overvalued vs Gold & Treasuries
Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Small Specs most long they have been in 3 years = bearish.
OI Analysis: OI has been increasing on up move. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the OI increase"? When it is caused by Large Specs & Small Specs, it is bearish.
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency to go down to October.
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: %R & Momentum (not confirmed)
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
USD/JPY Outlook: Strong Dollar Faces Yen Reversal at Key Supply The US Dollar gained momentum following the release of July's US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index last Friday. As the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred measure of inflation, the PCE data holds significant weight in the eyes of investors. The report indicated that US inflation remained steady compared to the previous month, easing concerns that the US economy might be decelerating faster than anticipated. In a "soft-landing" scenario, where the economy avoids a severe downturn, the US Dollar is likely to maintain its strength more effectively than if a recession were imminent.
On the technical front, the Japanese Yen Futures are currently retesting a Supply Area established on August 5, signaling a potential reversal. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report highlights a stark contrast between retail traders and institutional players: while retail traders are heavily long on the Yen, smart money is shifting its position decisively towards the bearish side. Additionally, the seasonality of the Yen suggests a historical tendency for the currency to experience a downturn during this period of the year.
Given these factors, we anticipate that the USD will continue to strengthen against the JPY. Keep a close eye on the USD/JPY chart for potential trading opportunities as this dynamic unfolds.
USD/JPY CHART
PREVIOUS FORECAST
✅ Please share your thoughts about JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Downside Ahead for JPY - COT Strategy Sell DISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
JPY (6J)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in 6J if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Extreme Positioning: Commercials at extreme in long positioning, most long since 2021. Small Specs at extreme in long positioning, most long since 2021. All this is bearish.
Valuation: Overvalued VS Treasuries & Gold
OI Analysis: Upmove since July has seen CM's quickly shift to strong short position = bearish.
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for this currency to go down into October.
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist, POIV & Stochastic Sell Signals
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
