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ETH Merge - Risk on Market, the Role of Derivatives and ETH PoWDespite the successful ETH merge, the positioning of traders has been fairly one-way since then. Since September 15, ETH has underperformed BTC by 12.43%. This rally to the downside can’t only be attributed to the adverse macro conditions. The Merge is and has been an unequivocally bullish and risky event for Ethereum. If the merge had failed, it would have been catastrophic for the ETH price and the crypto ecosystem in general. Normally, a headline like the Merge would have driven the Market completely risk-on, however, risk was already on. On August 23 ETH/BTC was trading at 0.075 and topped 0.0856 (+14%) on September 7. At the merge snapshot, ETH/BTC was trading at 0.08099 (+7.9%). At the time of writing, its trading at 0.0688 (-12.43%). Interestingly enough, Delta-one traders were trying to get the most out of this event and in this case, they bet on the ETH Proof of Work coin airdrop, in the case that there was a Hard Fork of the Ethereum Blockchain. Derivatives traders entered long positions on spot ETH, and hedged the market exposure via Futures. In normal market conditions, the Basis spread and the funding spread between ETH and BTC tends to zero. While a positive (negative) spread is typically a signal of bullish (bearish) market. As the possibility of having an ETH PoW token materialized, the funding spread between the two pairs became wider and wider, and reached -394.2% annualized in the hour prior the merge. Hedging 1 ETH via a Perpetual Future on FTX for the 24h prior the merge costed $12.18 (or 0.7585% ETH). In the 4 hours following the creation of the ETH PoW market on FTX, the coin was trading at an average of $22.98, that is 88.73% profit excluding fees. FTX was one of the first exchanges to both credit the airdrop and to support trading of ETH PoW. All the market participants who had their Ethereum outside FTX did not receive the token at that time, nor had the possibility to sell it on margin and cover the position at a later date. Indeed, since the airdrop, ETH PoW flow has been skewed to the sell side and it is now trading at $6.167. Now I expect that Basis and Funding spread will find a new equilibrium that will be close to the ETH PoS staking rewards, thus a minus 4-7% annualized spread between the two pairs is reasonable. For ETH PoW I don’t see a long future as most of the Developers, Protocols and Community are not supporting it anymore. Happy Trading! Matteo Bottacini and the Crypto Finance Trading Desk
by mbottacini
ETHBTCHello Crypto Lovers, Mars Signals team wishes you high profits. This is a one-day-time frame analysis for ETHBTC As we analyzed on September 10, we expected a falling trend and now this prediction came true and one of our targets is hit. Here we have R2 and R1 as the resistance areas that both express the price was not able to rise. And S1 used to be another resistance line. Presently, we have the price fluctuating over S1 and we expect a decline for it to reach the mentioned line. Here we must wait for some rising signs in order to have an increase toward R1 or even to R2. In case the price loses the support and falls below S1, more fall is there for it to happen. Warning: This is just a suggestion and we do not guarantee profits. We advise you to analyze the chart before opening any positions. Wish you luck
Long
by MarsSignals
2
Ethereum has not done this since November 2017The above monthly chart makes for very disconcerting reading. Viewer discretion advised. Bulls looks away! On the above monthly chart the ETH/BTC pair is shown. Stochastic RSI (purple circles) WILL cross down 40 with the close of this monthly candle unless something amazing happens. This cross down has not happened since the November 2017 top. The last time Stochastic RSI crossed down it stayed below 40 for a little over 2 years. Were that to repeat we would not see positive price action until November 2024. There’s something else, the rising trend support line. Price action has broken market structure, the upward slopping trend line is the first support, -40% below current price action. That would easily take dollar price action to $600-800 region if Bitcoin dollar price action remains in the general area it is in. Lastly is the volume. Selling pressure is increasing. Look left, you cannot buy into a market hoping for rising price action when selling pressure increases. You must wait for those red candles to shrink in size and a green one to appear. Is there a positive side? Maybe.. price action appears to be printing a large inverse head and shoulders pattern. If the uptrend support is confirmed, this could be wonderful. However I would not expect such a formation to complete until at least quarter 1 2023. Ww
by without_worries
9
#Ethereum Bulls Roaring, ETH May Rally above 0.088 BTCPast Performance of ETHBTC ETH prices are relatively firm versus BTC when writing, per the formation in the daily chart. Overall, buyers are in control, and the immediate trend is northwards. From the ETHBTC candlestick arrangement, the immediate support is 0.075 BTC coinciding with around April 2022 highs, a critical reaction level. #ETHBTC Technical Analysis After attempts of lower lows earlier this week, ETH bulls flew back on September 13, rejecting attempts to push prices even lower. From the daily chart, traders can find loading opportunities on every attempt lower as long as prices are held above 0.075BTC or this week's lows. The immediate target will be September highs at 0.085 BTC for aggressive ETH bulls. Meanwhile, traders waiting for a clear trend definition can wait for a clean break above 0.085 BTC, at the back of rising trading volumes, to initiate longs and ride the primary trend and the bull breakout of early August 2022. In this case, the first bull target will be 0.088 BTC or 2021 highs. What to Expect from #ETHBTC? Pumped by fundamental factors, Ethereum buyers are in control and would likely rally above 0.085 BTC and register new all-time highs. On the reverse side, deeper and unexpected retracements below 0.075 BTC will shift the momentum to bears. Resistance level to watch out for: 0.085 BTC Support level to watch out for: 0.075 BTC Disclaimer: Opinions expressed are not investment advice. Do your research.
Long
by Bitcoin_Analyzer
2022 SOL = 2017 ETH?2022 $SOL = 2017 $ETH ⁉️ 2022-2023 #SOLBTC vs 2016-2017 #ETHBTC 76-80% down move ~1 year in duration after huge advancement up, we all know what happened after that for ETH in 2017 - one of the largest parabolic advances known to mankind. SOL is my #1 bag, ETH was my #1 bag in 2017. I now use SOL 100x more often and frequently than I use ETH (I still hold a large amount of ETH, but much heavier SOL). SOL metrics are blowing ETH out of the water - check transactions made, NFT's bought/sold, users.. the list goes on. If we don't go extended bear here, SOL should be a big contender for a nice close to 2022 and into 2023. #Solana #SOL #SOLSZN #NFTSZN much love, -@CryptoCurb
Long
by CryptoCurb