US30 Potential ShortKey Observations:
Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
The chart shows a retracement of the prior downward move, and the price is currently reacting near the 0.382 Fibonacci level at 43,828.18.
The retracement failed to break through the 50% level (44,062.83), indicating weak bullish momentum and reinforcing the overall bearish bias.
Further rejection below the 0.382 level could signal continuation to the 0.236 level (43,533.57).
Price Action & Support/Resistance:
Price is consolidating just above 43,770 and appears to be testing the lower levels. A breakdown from this support could send price to test 43,537.19, which is aligned with previous structure and the 0.236 Fibonacci level.
If price breaks 43,828 and finds support, a pushback toward 44,062 (50% retracement) could occur.
Bollinger Bands:
Price is currently trading near the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting potential short-term oversold conditions.
However, Bollinger Bands are widening, signaling increased volatility and a continuation of the current trend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
RSI is hovering below 40, indicating bearish momentum but not yet oversold.
Any further decline below 30 would suggest strong bearish continuation.
A minor divergence may form if price creates lower lows but RSI fails to follow, which could hint at a reversal.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
The MACD histogram remains below the zero line, confirming bearish momentum.
The signal line is trending downward, but a smaller histogram bar suggests bearish momentum might be slowing.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support Levels:
43,770 (Current support area).
43,533.57 (0.236 Fibonacci retracement, next major support).
Resistance Levels:
43,828.18 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement, immediate resistance).
44,062.83 (50% Fibonacci retracement, critical short-term resistance).
Potential Scenarios:
Bearish Continuation (Primary Bias):
If price breaks below 43,770 with strong momentum, the next target would be the 0.236 level at 43,533.57.
Indicators like the MACD and RSI support bearish continuation unless a divergence forms.
Relief Bounce (Secondary Scenario):
A bounce from 43,770 or the 0.382 Fibonacci level could see price retracing back to 44,062.83.
Traders should watch for bullish confirmation like RSI climbing above 40 and MACD showing convergence.
Recommendation:
Short Sellers: Monitor for a breakdown below 43,770 and target 43,533.57. Use stop-loss around 43,900 to limit risk.
Long Traders: Wait for a bullish confirmation (RSI divergence, MACD crossover, or a strong bullish candle) near support levels.
This setup favors a bearish continuation with the potential for short-term relief bounces.
Managing risk and waiting for confirmation signals is key and do not risk more than 1% of your account!
