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BTC Futures Contract (Jan 2025)BTC Futures Contract (Jan 2025)BTC Futures Contract (Jan 2025)

BTC Futures Contract (Jan 2025)

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BTCUSD03F2025 trade ideas

IN A BITCOIN FRENZY; LONG BTC MINERS & SHORT BTCBitcoin ("BTC") prices are on a tear. It has rallied +57% since the start of September and is on course to clock fourth sequential month of rising prices. Four forces are driving a blistering rally. Euphoria linked to BTC spot ETF. Bullishness in all “Risk On” assets. Regulatory clarity. BTC halving. In a BTC rally, portfolio managers can gain exposure to the sector in multiple ways. These include a long position in (a) BTC, (b) BTC Futures, (c) Listed BTC miners’ stocks, (d) Crypto Exchanges, or (e) ETF on Listed BTC Miners (“Miners ETF”). Each of these presents its own benefits and challenges. This paper summarises the forces driving the bull run and analyses the price behaviour of Miners ETF (represented by Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF “WGMI”) vis-a-vis BTC. Since June when market caught on to the excitement of a BTC Spot ETF, BTC prices have rallied relative to WGMI. In the near term, will the ETF catch up with the bull rally in BTC? Has the BTC price rally run ahead of itself? UNPACKING WGMI ETF WGMI is an actively managed ETF that invests in listed BTC miners. It is issued by Valkyrie Funds LLC. The ETF objective is to invest >80% of its net assets in firms that derive >50% of their revenue or profits from BTC mining operations and/or from providing specialized chips, hardware and software or other services supporting BTC mining. The Fund will not directly invest in BTC. Neither will it indirectly participate in BTC using derivatives or through investments in funds or trusts that hold BTC. Source: ETFDB and data last updated 7th/December 2023 WGMI was launched in Feb 2022, it has net assets of USD 33 million and an expense ratio of 75 basis points. In June, when regulatory approval discussions became louder, WGMI rallied relative to BTC. Net fund flows have been positive for much of the year with rising inflows since start of October. However, since mid-July, while BTC remained resilient, WGMI came off precipitously. WGMI price meltdown stopped in early Oct and has since started rising. Meanwhile, BTC prices have rallied sharply resulting in a WGMI underperforming BTC by 30%. BTC BULLS IN FULL FORCE Four forces are driving BTC frenzy. 1. BTC Spot ETF Euphoria ETF applications were delayed by the SEC and remain pending. Previously anticipated timeline of between 5th and 10th January 2024 remains the expected approval date. Source: James Seyffart 2. Risk-on Asset Bull Run When money flows, it flows everywhere. Equity markets have been on an upward trajectory over the past three months on Fed rate cut hopes. BTC is seen as the risk asset of choice rallying the most. 3. Regulatory Clarity Recently, Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), former CEO of FTX, and Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange were both prosecuted. SBF was convicted of fraud and jailed. Meanwhile, Binance was imposed USD 4.3 billion in penalties on criminal charges related to money laundering and breach of financial sanctions. In reaction to these developments, JP Morgan's Nikolais Panigirtzoglou said that "We see the prospect of settlement as positive as uncertainty around Binance itself would subside and its trading and BNB Smart Chain business would benefit. "For crypto investors the prospect of settlement would see the elimination of a potential systemic risk emanating from a hypothetical Binance collapse.", he added. 4. BTC Halving BTC derives value from its limited supply. Every four years, the number of BTCs minted as a mining reward, halves and will eventually halt, leading to a fixed supply. BTC halving occurs every 210,000 blocks. As the average block time is ~10 minutes this gives a ballpark range of four years. Next BTC halving is expected on 19th April 2024, with tiny likelihood that it could take place in March or May. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SET UP BTC appreciation due to halving is well known but its effects on miners is counter intuitive. With halving, the block reward for mining BTC i.e. miner revenues are essentially slashed in half. Although BTC price appreciation helps offset to some degree, it may not be enough if elevated prices cannot be sustained. Macro conditions have shifted. Energy prices are lower positively impacting the miners. Miner margins are likely to be wider. Large miners are expanding their hash rate at record clip. This is supported by expansion of hash rate as well as consolidation. Given the frenzied euphoric run up in BTC prices, BTC price may have run ahead of itself. In order to protect long position in Bitcoin miners against downside moves in volatile cryptocurrency prices, investors can hedge a long position in WGMI with a short position in CME Micro BTC futures. This Relative Value trade captures the alpha from rising stock prices of miners, while remaining agnostic to the price action on BTC itself. This paper argues for a hypothetical long position in WGMI ETF hedged by a short position using CME Micro Bitcoin Futures expiring in January 2024 (MBTF2024). A long-short spread requires the notional of each trade leg to be identical. Each lot of Micro Bitcoin Futures provides exposure to 0.10 bitcoin equating to a notional value of USD 4,544. Given WGMI prices as of market close on 8th December was at USD 14.75 per ETF, 308 ETF units are required. The hypothetical relative value trade then comprises of 308 WGMI units of ETF hedged by one lot of short position in CME Micro Bitcoin Futures with the following hypothetical trade set up: • Entry: 0.03246% (USD 14.75 divided by USD 45,440) • Target: 0.045% • Stop Loss: 0.027% • Profit at Target: USD 1,755 • Loss at Stop: USD 676 • Reward/Risk: 2.6x Please note that the above hypothetical P&L doesn’t include transaction and capital costs. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME:MBT1!
by mintdotfinance
UNpopular opinion $BTC down $CME WOuld pay to be contrarian here. all momentum indicators are very much over extended but can run a bit more but i feel time is running out. everyone and their moms are now calling for 40k where were they at 26??? we got a perfect CME gap fill, almost seems to easy to long here which is why we short. and fade the general public. I find it also very improbable on a new rally into the halvening. Imo we go tag the bottom gap at 20,300 to ill the final gap on daily. and chad after the halvening. all shorts got liq/d on the last move. i can see this slow bleed out down to the right before resetting and everyone calling crypto a scam. Holler if ya hear me.
CME:BTC1!Short
by sheffield305
BTC1! on 6hr Time Frame Ascending TriangleBTC1! on the 6 hr time frame has an Ascending Triangle. "An ascending triangle pattern predicts a bullish breakout above the resistance area, typically around the time when the ascending line of the triangle would intersect the horizontal resistance line. Ascending triangles form due to of accumulation following a sustained uptrend." Next projected target on 6hr time frame marked of $43.65k then to $47.5k *On a separate note: Please note, the gap fill marked, if BTC pulls back, it could potential pullback to lower targets of $40.4k-$39.5k to Gap fill and consolidate. However atm, btc is bullish imo. :) What are your thoughts? Comment Below. :)
CME:BTC1!Long
by angelbaetrades
Can Bitcoin Hedge Against a Falling Dollar?Global inflation often signifies a weakening of global currencies. The question of whether Bitcoin can serve as a hedge against a depreciating dollar has gained significant interest among investors. Or should it still be the Gold? In this study, we will analyse the top 8 cryptocurrencies to determine which one is a more reliable currency hedge. Bitcoin & Its Minimum Fluctuation $5.00 per bitcoin = $25.00 BTIC: $1.00 per bitcoin = $5.00 Code: BTC Micro Bitcoin & Its Minimum Fluctuation $5.00 per bitcoin = $0.50 BTIC: $1.00 per bitcoin = $0.10 Code: MBT Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:BTC1!Education
by konhow
1
Can BTC Test 45,000?Bitcoin futures (BTC) have emerged as one of the standout performers this year, showcasing a remarkable uptrend with gains exceeding 130% year-to-date. While debates continue regarding its fundamentals, there is no denying its susceptibility to macroeconomic influences and interest rates, positioning it as a risk asset. Bitcoins Characteristics and Recent Price Action BTC has often been considered a "leveraged" bet on tech stocks, maintaining a notable correlation with the Nasdaq 100. A recent surge in BTC coincided with a bottom in the treasury market, with technical indicators such as the 21-day EMA crossing above the 50-day EMA. This rally, fueled by October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers, indicated no increase in inflation. As we approach the year-end, the prospect of easier financial conditions presents a favorable outlook for Bitcoin and risk assets in general. Major Headwinds For Bitcoin: However, challenges lie ahead, including the Federal Reserve's summary of Economic Projections and critical job-related data releases, such as ADP Non-Farm, JOLTs, Unit Labor Cost, Avg Hourly Earnings, and Nonfarm Payrolls. The anticipated release of the Dot Plot in the Summary of Economic Projections will reveal the Fed's interest rate expectations, potentially differing significantly from market expectations and creating a volatile environment for BTC. While Bitcoin has had an impressive year, a decisive break and close above the significant 40,000-41,275 level will be crucial for sustained momentum, as we can then make our way to the 45,000 level. With the 21-day EMA crossing above the 50-day EMA, the 21-day EMA will serve as a key benchmark for major support. Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:BTC1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
Cryptocurrency Overview: BTC $42k Hello, crypto investor friends! 🌐 Let's take a look at the current situation in the cryptocurrency market and speculate a bit about the future. Bitcoin at its Peak: $42,000 📈 Currently, BTC is trading at $41,800, and although the majority of traders are opting for short positions, many signs indicate that the rocket is just getting started. There are no indications of correction yet. Bitcoin dominance is increasing as altcoins flow into BTC. I'm eagerly anticipating a correction that will reduce dominance and favor altcoins. Let's wait! 😊 Gold at its Peak: $2111 💰 Not only Bitcoin is on the rise. The price of gold on the global market has reached a historic high of $2111. This indicates a growing interest in unique assets that can serve as a distinctive solution for investors. Potential Scenarios 📊 Looking at charts, highlighted gap zones may become potential correction zones. It's important to consider that these could be very favorable prices, and the probability of reaching these levels is constantly decreasing, especially considering the long-term trend. On global timeframes, we observe a triangle pattern that may signal the approach of a cup with a handle. But instead of technical analysis, let's focus on liquidity zones and potential correction. Correction Zones and Gaps 🎯 Identifying gaps and liquidity zones on the chart, we can see how they roughly coincide. This can be a key element in decision-making about where to place limit orders. It's also crucial to consider a possible long scenario. Conclusion 🌟 The situation in the cryptocurrency market remains predominantly bullish. Invest wisely and don't forget about risks. Wishing you successful trades and profitable investments! 🚀
CME:BTC1!
by CHOWTRADE
BTC trying to go PARABOLIC!!CME:BTC1! Since my last post BTC has done +40.77% so congratulations to all following my idea. It was such a sweet consideration: - major support - bullish divergence - rejecting the 200 - posting bullish trigger RESULT: 40.77% When you stay disciplined and execute your edge you can journal consistent wins. So where to next? CRYPTOCAP:BTC needs to hold and flip $40k for $45k and FWB:48K targets. When its bullish and printing a parabolic curve, look for an area of value entry ... any pull back that then holds. If you appreciate my efforts, spend half a second and give me a Boost! Thanks!! Always having Plan A and Plan B scenarios so we can react once the markets provide an opportunity to execute our edge. If you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations.
CME:BTC1!
by imr4nkh8n
🅱️ Bitcoin | Normal Correction Expected!Here we have a nice and classic pattern on the Bitcoin Futures (BTC1!) daily chart. This pattern is a rising wedge which is predominantly bearish. When it shows up, it tends to predict lower prices. Bull volume peaked 16-October, more than 1.5 months ago. After this date, the daily trading volume has been dropping steadily. This signal supports the rising wedge as a bearish pattern. The RSI peaked 25-October while Bitcoin peaked 24-November and here we have a month long bearish divergence. The RSI has been trending lower since it peaked a month ago. This signal also supports a correction or down-move developing next. Finally, we have multiple gaps that were left open on the way up. These can work as a magnet for Bitcoin's price. Things can change and the charts signals can become invalid based on how the price changes. While the bearish signals remain in place, we keep a bearish bias. If the bearish signals are negated, we become bullish. We follow the market, we trust the chart. Namaste.
CME:BTC1!Short
by AlanSantana
31