RTY1! big picture analysisBig picture analysis, looking to see if this triangle plays out (bearish, in this case).
Triangle could end up being bullish (temporarily) as well, depending on how it bounces between these pivots.
RTY1! trade ideas
RTY Daily UpdateDaily indicators are oversold, but the last time we had rate hikes and a fed shutdown, RTY went waaaay oversold. Not chasing the drop, but I've been warning my followers to wait until at least next week to go long. My advice has not changed.
RTY UpdateMFI actually went overbought today and it still hasn't hit my blue target line.
ES and NQ look like they want to bounce tomorrow but small caps may actually go down. Staying cash for now.
As weak as the market looks, there's a possibility that it breaks the blue line, then all bets are off. You really don't want to be holding a long position if that happens.
I don't think we hit bottom until Monday. I've been saying it for a couple of months now, but there is nothing wrong with being in cash.
RTY DailyChart pattern for every index looks similar to the Fed meeting last September. So we may have one more leg down, followed by some whipsaw. Daily RSI touched oversold on small caps but not ES and NQ.
3 hr chart is way oversold for every index, so we may get a pop tomorrow.
Hard to say.... because last year was a bear market until Oct, this year has been a bull market.
Support Coming For The Russell 2000?When analyzing a market and looking for critical levels and directional movements, trades will have to back track over a longer period to see where we had key breakout and key breakdown points. Looking at Russell 2000, we have seen significant swings in this pocket since May of 2022, and we are now trading lower and looking to test some key levels.
Overhead Resistance Channel:
After we began to break down in April of 2022, the market has really whipsawed back and forth, and we have seen this overhead resistance pocket tested 3 times and have rejected these levels each time, indicated strong selling pressure at this point.
Old Resistance, New Support:
The old resistance, new support level is going to be crucial as the market is getting slammed lower looking to find its footing. We initially saw this level acting as strong resistance, and in November of 2020 the market exploded higher through this level with great conviction. Although the market has traded below this level, we have consistently seen strong rallies back out above this point, and it could be a great landing spot for the Russel in the near term if the selling continues.
Major Trendline Support:
In addition to the new support level, there is also strong trendline support going back to September of 2020, and when we have broken support, this level has consistently held in an upward trend. Looking forward, this trendline is lining up with strong support neat 1750, and bulls will need to defend this level to have any sort of sustained rally.
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Russell 2000 Micro E-Mini Futures (M2k1!) - 4:1 LongMy analysis of the Russell 2000 surprises me, since I am instinctively more bearish than the chart seems to be. Hopefully you will challenge my forecast with your tough questions, since this venue is meant to arouse the reverse-engineers and to provoke the thinkers to do what they do best, right?
As always, I strive to render these ideas of mine so obviously that their explanation will require no words.
Nevertheless, this 4:1 Long trade on the M2k1! chart is of fundamental interest, considering that the Russell 2000 Index is a leading indicator of the US economy as a whole. Note that I have not entered the trade, because I expect price to fall farther still, as indicated by the custom Trend Exhaustion Wedge.
Although my trading strategy is built on innate Pattern Recognition and a hard-won sympathy for the Market Maker’s Business Model, my tactics - including the beauty of Tradingview and how it makes me look good - are based on identifying the opportunities within VOLUME, VOLATILITY and TREND EXHAUSTION.
As I mention in most of my other ideas, trading the CD leg of harmonic patterns is especially risky, since they are NOT confirmed until after the D-point prints.
Although I prefer to rely on the charts, I cannot help but notice the many challenges being visited upon China these days, which could indicate a timely trend reversal for American industries. Of course, this is NOT a longterm forecast, nor am I instinctively bullish, per se.
In the short and medium terms, price action should remain bound by the 0.236 to 0.382 Fibonacci retracement range set by the ATH during the "Everything Peak", shown in this 4h chart by the highlighted Purple channel. There are so many unknowns beyond Q2 2024 (on account of CBDCs, among other variables), that it is too soon to assume that price action will return to the Blue accumulation zone that also marks the top of the forecasted move, even though some important pre-Covid levels have been tested.
Followers of my ideas may not be familiar with the aforementioned Wedge, which (among other things) suggests possible late entries in case price fails to hit the specified entry level from below, after confirming a C-point. The Wedge is merely one of many details in the full chart, which can't be seen in this condensed 4h version.
I am preparing a video on prospecting for opportunities during the Sector Rotation, and the RUT and the E-Mini Futures are part of it. First, though, I have a few more ideas to upload as I update other key charts for the final Quarter of 2023.
Until then, be liquid !!!](<My analysis of the Russell 2000 surprises me, since I am instinctively more bearish than the chart seems to be. Hopefully you will challenge my forecast with your tough questions, since this venue is meant to arouse the reverse-engineers and to provoke the thinkers to do what they do best, right?
As always, I strive to render these ideas of mine so obviously that their explanation will require no words.
Nevertheless, this 4:1 Long trade on the M2k1! chart is of fundamental interest, considering that the Russell 2000 Index is a leading indicator of the US economy as a whole. Note that I have not entered the trade, because I expect price to fall farther still, as indicated by the custom Trend Exhaustion Wedge.
Although my trading strategy is built on innate Pattern Recognition and a hard-won sympathy for the Market Maker’s Business Model, my tactics - including the beauty of Tradingview and how it makes me look good - are based on identifying the opportunities within VOLUME, VOLATILITY and TREND EXHAUSTION.
As I mention in most of my other ideas, trading the CD leg of harmonic patterns is especially risky, since they are NOT confirmed until after the D-point prints.
Although I prefer to rely on the charts, I cannot help but notice the many challenges being visited upon China these days, which could indicate a timely trend reversal for American industries. Of course, this is NOT a longterm forecast, nor am I instinctively bullish, per se.
In the short and medium terms, price action should remain bound by the 0.236 to 0.382 Fibonacci retracement range set by the ATH during the "Everything Peak", shown in this 4h chart by the highlighted Purple channel. There are so many unknowns beyond Q2 2024 (on account of CBDCs, among other variables), that it is too soon to assume that price action will return to the Blue accumulation zone that also marks the top of the forecasted move, even though some important pre-Covid levels have been tested.
Followers of my ideas may not be familiar with the aforementioned Wedge, which (among other things) suggests possible late entries in case price fails to hit the specified entry level from below, after confirming a C-point. The Wedge is merely one of many details in the full chart, which can't be seen in this condensed 4h version.
I am preparing a video on prospecting for opportunities during the Sector Rotation, and the RUT and the E-Mini Futures are part of it. First, though, I have a few more ideas to upload as I update other key charts for the final Quarter of 2023.
Until then, be liquid !!!
RUSSELL 2000: Can drop more before an end-of-year rebound.Russell 2000 broke again today under the 1D MA200 after failing to close over the 1D MA50 on September 1st. Despite numerous breaks under the 1D MA200, all candles managed to close over it. If today's close under it (first time since June 5th) along with the bearish 1D technicals (RSI = 35.725, MACD = -19.100, ADX = 32.380), we expect the price to drop more inside the HL Zone. Then it will become a buy opportunity again and we estimate an end of the year rally towards the R1 Zone again (TP = 2,015).
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Overview of the Markets - SPX RTY NQ IWM SOXXJust an overview of what I'm seeing and why I'm still being patient with my short position. Of course if things don't start falling soon, we may have something else happening and I'll have to be open to that. I cover a few sectors that stand out to me as examples of structure and RSI which looks ready to turn down. Good luck!
Possible H&S chart structure in RussellA decisive close below the neckline would spell trouble for small caps in U.S. market
RTY UpdateES and NQ MFI went oversold premarket, but RTY didn't. Looks to me like both RSI and MFI has to go oversold before a bounce.
I think I'll sit on cash for now.
M2KU2023 SHORTIf you look at the TrendCloud on the continuous contract you will see that it likes to go 5 waves up and then 7 waves down most of the time. It worth taking an aggressive entry at this demand zone because you have asymmetrical leverage. Meaning: the reward is much bigger than the risk. Go for it.
#RTY Targeting An Equality TestIN this update we review the recent price action in the emini Russell 2000 futures contract and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
PAST PERFORMANCE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
RTY UpdateMFI oversold, but RSI is not yet.
Might take a stab at a long position tomorrow, we'll see what it looks like then. Staying cash for now.
RTY UpdateRSI overbought, probably doesn't reverse until MFI gets overbought as well because ES MFI is oversold. Indicators are mixed depending on the index. No idea what the algos are doing, lol.
RTY UpdateI did say 4 day short squeeze on garbage small caps stocks, and today is day 4. Overbought on RSI and MFI, but what's more important is PCE numbers premarket tomorrow.
No long positions for me at all.
RT Daily UpdateDaily MFI for RTY is still oversold, so I'm still anticipating a garbage stock short squeeze.
Problem is, CPE numbers come out Thu premarket. I'm anticipating rebound inflation, even marked my calendar for Wed lunch to bail on all long positions.
I anticipate that my 3hr indicator will go overbought by then anyways, and I usually don;t hold long position for more than a couple of days.... but good to set yourself a reminder. If the market tanks premarket Thu, I'm gonna say I told you so, lol.
RTY UpdateMFI still oversold on daily and my short term 3 hr chart. We're getting the usual Friday afternoon pump.... maybe we finally see that 4 day short squeeze on garbage stocks I was anticipating.... BYND is up 3%
US2000 BEARISH SCENARIOAll focused on the forthcoming remarks by Jerome Powell, set to disrupt the situation tomorrow, which could potentially shift investor sentiment from buying to selling. The US2000, also known as the Russell 2000, represents a small-cap index that follows behind the larger indices such as DJIA, S&P, and Nasdaq. In recent months, the Russell has demonstrated weaker performance in contrast to its counterparts. The impending increase in interest rates might introduce new challenges to the market. Indicated by a symmetrical parabolic pattern, there's a suggestion that a bearish trend could extend around 130-150 points, mirroring the height of the curve. Nevertheless, the equation "Powell = Power" still holds true.
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RTY Daily oversoldRTY daily hit oversold, ES and NQ are not there yet.
Expecting one of those short squeezes sooner or later, unsure of timing so mostly cash. Just a small long position/
RTY UpdateOversold on RSI and MFI, also touching oversold on daily MFI.
Fed minutes this afternoon, I don't see any real new "news" coming out. Might not see a reversal until tomorrow because NQ hasn't hit oversold yet.
RTY UpdateRSI almost oversold now. Guessing gap down tomorrow and reversal on Fed meeting minutes or some other stupid "news", lol.
Probability that it reverses overnight so staying cash, already dumped my puts because I'm "easy money"
RTY UpdateOdd stuff, RSI headed to oversold, MFI headed to overbought.
Fed minutes released Wed afternoon, might just wait until after that happens. Kinda expecting a short squeeze pop sooner or later.
With interest rates where they are, there's no need to force a trade. Money market is just fine, lol.
RTY UpdatePPI higher than expected as I predicted, but RTY went oversold and bounced anyways. Pretty much what I expected. Right idea, wrong stock, lost a little on my BITO puts but I got into PCAR stock while it was red this morning. That's all I'm willing to do, PCAR still has an open gap above as does all of the index futures. No options trading because teh market could just go sideways.
A bit surprised and hugely disappointed shitcoin didn't tank with the inflation numbers.
