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Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures (Mar 2026)Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures (Mar 2026)Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures (Mar 2026)

Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures (Mar 2026)

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MESH2026 trade ideas

Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #5 - ES Bull FlagI'm beginning to get more bearish for the short term but for now ES continues to hold support around 6,113, which was a previous ATH from the post election rally. It's bullish until it breaks. My best guess is that it will break and will potentially provide a good short opportunity for a move down to demand and a previous swing low near 5,950. Next downside target from there would be 5,800. If it holds I'd expect a move back up to the top end of the range and would be looking for longs on a break and retest or any good dips. This is an interesting spot and seems like a good spot to long, but it could just as easily be a quick flush. It's probably best to wait and see what happens after FOMC before putting on too much risk. There will be a chance to get on board after it chooses a direction. IV is rising, best to wait for it to come down.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by AdvancedPlays
4
Where May Equity Markets Finish For 2024?As we are approaching year end, this is a great time as a trader to go back and see how different markets performed relative to the positions you had throughout the year. Many different sectors had excellent performances this year such as the precious metals complex, with Gold hitting all time high levels, and the crypto market led by Bitcoin. With that said, the ES contract has hit a new all time high this year and is trading right near the $6,000 level which was first achieved this year. Traders often reference the “Santa Clause Rally” referring to a move higher in markets to finish out the year on a high note. With the year winding down, there are only a few more trading days along with some important economic data that will have an impact on how prices settle for the end of the year. Also, with the selling pressure seen today across several markets, there would need to be a catalyst to send prices back near all time highs. Looking ahead to next year, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the markets based on tensions in the Middle East, a new presidential cycle starting in January, and the Fed’s plans for rate cuts or pauses for 2025. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME_MINI:ESZ2024
by CME_Group
S&P 500 Comes Back From Extreme "Extreme"In the S&P 500, we observe a very similar scenario to the Nasdaq (see link to the NQ chart). It’s worth noting that we’ve seen this situation a few times before: the price traded outside the orange fork, moved back into the fork, but then left behind a "Hagopian" and shot back above it. This is irrational market behavior caused by artificial buying pressure (Gamma Squeeze). Now, we see the market bouncing off the 1/4 line between the warning line and the U-MLH of the white fork. And yet again, we’re trading within the orange fork. What now? Back up again or is it really heading down this time? Read my lips: "I - Don’t - Know." §8-) Buuuut, the projection and the extent of the over extension lead me to believe that this time, it’s going to crash! Like in the NQ, my stance here is **short** for the coming weeks, and possibly even months.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
SPX running on empty, looking for a CORRECTIONI've been bullish the market for a long time and had a great 2024 but I believe the signs are now visible that the market is ready to take a breather. That may have to wait until the Xmas holidays or early new year but I suspect that in the first part of 2025 we could see a decent 5%-10% pullback which should present another buying opportunity for even higher levels 6-12 months down the road. Longer term I am yet to see any signs of a significant market breakdown visible and that comes back to central bank criminals (FED) continuing to have an easing bias and President Trumpet being on the higher government spending/tariffs path which ultimately stokes inflation back higher again.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by WVS_Stockscreen
S&P500 Measured Move - ES Target 2024 Reached?That's a ...ummmhh..surprise at least. And it's crazy. I never thought this could happen. But we better shall believe, that ECH - Everything Can Happen! So, is the target reached for 2024? Nobody knows, right? But, I start to further close positions and take my profits in these Index and the correlating Markets. Don't let Greed eat your Brain §8-) As for my Christmas Lotto Ticket this year, I take a small Short Position now...LEAPs, Bear-Spread, dunno yet, but it's a Shortie that I can let sit for a couple Months. Talk soon...
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
S&P Correction, More Downturns ExpectedEven though the price traded slightly higher than the closing price on Friday, we did not see it make another high. Instead, it has started its descent into forming what I expect will be a more moderate retracement before we continue the upward trajectory. The first swing down, just on the look of it, seems to be at or close to completion. Assuming this is true, the best course of action is to wait for the upcoming intra-correction rally of the B wave. Subsequently, we can look to position an order to take advantage of the second swing down to complete a classical zigzag pattern. The correction so far has reached the 23.6 level retracement of the previous third wave total advance. Still, we would ideally like to see it travel into at least the 38.2% retracement, which coincides somewhat closely with the ending area of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. This is one of the main target areas we look for on the travel of a 4th wave. I will keep updating as the price and the pattern continue to develop. Happy Trading :)
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by HydraFinance
1
Es/SPX Morning Update Dec10thThis week will revolve around one key magnet: 6063 area (megaphone support), and ES has respected it so far. After selling there, bouncing, and now spending 20 hours consolidating, it’s backtesting the December 3rd breakout level. As of now: 6063 remains support. Buyers holding above keeps 6079 and 6088-93 targets in play. If 6063 fails, expect a dip to 6050-6048. TIP: If you need to set up your charts exactly like mine, including all the levels and Fib Channels, here’s how starting from the home page: **1. Go to TradingView and use the search bar.** **2. Switch to the “People” tab and type in ESMORG.** **3. Click on one of my updates.** **4. Scroll to the bottom-right corner outside of the chart and look for three dots (…).** **5. Click on those dots and select the option that says “Make it Mine” or “Grab this Chart”.** This will instantly apply my chart setup to your own TradingView account so all your levels can be precise.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
2
Riding US Exceptionalism to 2025 with Long SPY & Protective PutsSize begets size. Records are being shattered. US Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have attracted >USD 1 trillion inflows YTD 2024 for the first time in history. Pro-business policies under President-elect Donald Trump continues to entice investors into US equities. US stocks are at record levels. Is that a concern? Yes. But, unlike other rallies which tend to be concentrated and narrow, this rally has been broad. Gains are visible across industries & segments. The “Trump Bump” has sent S&P 500 above 6,000 for the first time in history. It has attracted additional USD 140 billion of funds into US equities since US elections. Trump’s agenda promise – pro-growth policies, lighter regulations, & lower taxes continue to keep US equities buoyant. The risk of a fall gets elevated when soaring at heights. Long position in US equities pose risks. Among many alternatives, protective puts using CME Micro E-Mini S&P 500 options is compelling given sanguine implied volatility expectations. US EQUITIES EXPECTED TO DELIVER SUPERIOR EARNINGS In the short term, markets are a voting machine. In the long run, they are weighing machines. Regardless of which machine it is, US equities remain unrivalled now. Momentum and fundamentals both favour a long positioning in US stocks. Stock markets value growth in earnings and profitability. US firms continue to deliver superbly on both. Earnings have risen strong and expected to expand even stronger in 2025. US firms as represented by S&P500 stocks are expected to clock 14.8% in EPS growth (compared to 9.8% in 2024). In sharp contrast, the MSCI AC World ex-US is estimated to deliver 10.8% in EPS growth. ARE US EQUITIES OVERVALUED? Ramping up investments or buying into equities when valuations are soaring can give cold feet to any investor. Are we in bubble territory? Perhaps. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are at record highs. But it is not without justification. Rising earnings, promise of artificial intelligence, and American Exceptionalism unleashes the animal spirits. For now, will the bubble pop? Perhaps not yet. Instead, the bubble may continue to grow in 2025. Timing the markets is hard. Timing a bubble pop is harder still. During such times, investors must navigate markets prudently with adequate risk guardrails. Significant capex is being poured into Gen AI investments. If commensurate results are not spectacular enough, stock prices could correct sharply to reflect that disappointment. US EQUITIES ARE EXPENSIVE. BUY THEM ANYWAY IS WHAT ANALYSTS ARE SAYING. TINA is back in action. TINA stands for “There Is No Alternative.” Where else in the world, apart from the US, is an economy that is large enough, safe, resilient, and offers the greatest upside to growth. No where else. That is American exceptionalism. Solid earnings growth expectations, rising productivity, consumers in good health, pro-business policy expectations, and light touch regulations collectively contribute to analysts’ overweight rating on the US equities. Fund flows into ETFs vindicates market expectations. US equities are expensive. It may get even more expensive in 2025. WSJ reported recently that 12-month forward P/E ratios are at 22.3x earnings. S&P 500 forecasts for end of 2025 remain vastly bullish ranging from 6400 to 7000. In sharp contrast, Peter Berezin of BCA Research expects sharp correction with S&P falling to as low as 4100 by end of 2025. Source: The Street FEAR GUAGE REMAINS SANGUINE Rising asset prices are typically accompanied by elevated implied volatility levels pointing to mounting cost of securing downside protection. Intriguingly that is not the case for US equities for now. The Wall Street Fear Index – the VIX – hovers around multiyear lows. HYPOTHETICAL PORTFOLIO HEDGING SETUP Driven by American Exceptionalism, Earnings Growth Expectations, and the Promise of AI, US equities remain compelling. Risk hits hardest when one least expects it. Securing downside protection when it is cheap is what astute investors do. This paper illustrates method for hedging US equities portfolio represented by 50 units of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust holdings (SPY). For simplicity, this paper assumes that a portfolio manager acquires 50 SPY units at the closing price as of 6th Dec 2024 paying USD 608 per unit valuing the portfolio at USD 30,400. The manager is willing to accept a 5% drawdown and seeks protection for price corrections below. In this case investors can utilize a protective put, which is an options strategy where an investor buys a put option while holding the underlying asset. It acts as insurance, limiting potential losses if the asset's price drops. Portfolio manager buys protective put options using CME Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Options (Micro S&P Options) to hedge downside risk. Deploying CME Micro S&P Options expiring on 20th Jun 2025, the portfolio manager buys protective puts at a strike of 5,850 which corresponds to approximately 5% below the underlying futures trading at 6,165 points. Based on the closing price on Dec 6, the portfolio manager will have to pay a premium of 124 points (USD 620 = USD 5/index point x 124 index points) for one lot of Micro S&P Options to protect a portfolio of USD 30,400. The pay-off for the portfolio manager under various S&P 500 levels as of 20th Jun 2025 are illustrated below: *Put options gain in value when the index drops below the strike price. If index remains above the strike levels, the maximum loss from put options are limited to the premium. This non-linearity in pay-off enables portfolio managers to limit downside even as they can continue to participate in the upside. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by mintdotfinance
ES: Where I see Mrs. Market is headingEnd of this year or early next year might be in for some kind of a shocker. If the current ending diagonal is true, then ES should not see 6300 at this point. Either the Fed or all this tariff talk may tank the market in the coming weeks. If we say the rules of alternation in play, then the wave 4 should be steep and quick. Wave 2 took 10 months and was choppy. Wave 4 should take about half that time and should get into wave 1 territory at 4788. That would put the market in the bear market territory and most pundits should call for the lost decade. But I see one more high to end the 100 year cycle sometime around 2026.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by mukit1
ES / MES Weekend Update Dec 8We continue OTFU on the weekly and daily. I want to be slightly cautious above here, not because it's bearish, but simply because we're above a 2 sigma deviation (SPX 6073) of the YTD vwap (SPX 5405). In the past, price has whipsawed at this deviation up to the 2.5. While I remain long, I also must have one foot out the door. Last week created a double distribution profile with Friday ending in the upper part. Thursday saw a pretty large seller come on around 6106 which then saw some resistance on Friday. Friday's initial move at the open from the NFP data left a poor high. This will most likely be revisited. Main concern for buyers here would be an excess move above Friday's high creating a look above and fail. I would watch 6114-6119 for exact scenario. For longs, I would be interested in a look below and fail of 6092-88. There is a LVN between Friday's low and the 12/5 Spike base. Take this up to 6100-06, trim and see where we go from there. A break above Friday's VAH, 6104 would target Friday's Poor High. Afterwards, we observe for the look above and fail possibility. Otherwise, trail the long. Above then targets 6124 and 6136, Friday 50% and 100% extensions respectively. If we trade and get traction below Friday's low, the NFP event candle low would be first target at 6075. Further weakness may finally see the gap fill at 6066 where I do expect buyers to pop in. Further weakness, would then target Nov RTH ATH 6060 and old balance top at 6045. In the end, buyers really are not in serious trouble until back below 6k. Weekly Expected Move: 61pts - 6038 / 6160 12/9 Daily Expected Move: 20pts - 6079 / 6119
CME_MINI:MES1!
by bluenotes
2