Euro Soars with Dollar WoesOne thing about tables, they turn. This time last year, the dollar was unrivalled. Now, it is being challenged amid a banking crisis, recessionary fears, and a debt ceiling drama.
Having stepped up on the rates faster than the rest, the US Fed’s combat against inflation fuelled a dollar rally . It now finds itself between a hard place and a rock. Many expect the Fed to pause.
In contrast, the ECB, having been slower off the block, has gradually lifted rates with ample headroom for further policy intervention to fend off a resurgent Euro area inflation.
This paper explores fundamental forces driving a rally in the Euro and the headwinds facing the dollar.
With EUR/USD making a golden cross on March 27th, this case study posits a long position in Euro using the CME Euro FX Futures delivering a 3x reward to risk ratio with entry at 1.1025 and target of 1.17 hedged by a stop at 1.08.
Crushed and Bruised Euro is Fighting Back
2022 was a crushing year for the Euro. Geopolitics plunged Europe into an energy crisis. Bleak prospects plus soaring inflation meant deep recession. The Euro was wounded.
The Euro was dealt another blow as the ECB was slow to lift rates. Key eurozone rates were well below those in the US, as the Fed was all pedal to the metal with unprecedented hikes.
Higher yields in the US attracted foreign funds, boosting the dollar at the expense of other currencies.
Tables turn and times change. Euro's rise is in part thanks to milder European winter. Warmer than normal and prudent energy consumption has kept gas prices in check. The region may well avoid a recession. In fact, it posted a surprise output growth in the final quarter of last year.
A hawkish ECB also well supports the Euro. It continues to hike rates to tackle inflation, which remains stubbornly high.
As rates in Europe rise while those in US stall, the Euro will attract capital inflows from across the Atlantic.
Dollar’s dominance is being challenged
Over the last 10 years, the Dollar Index (DXY) has gained ~25% while the EUR/USD has shed ~19%.
The rotation away from the dollar is underway. Not only Euros, but the dollar has also been losing ground against other majors, including the sterling and the yen.
Easing inflationary pressures should spell victory for the Fed allowing it to tone down its fighting monetary stance.
Premium for insuring against US government default spiked to its highest level in more than a decade amid political impasse related to debt ceiling. While this political embarrassment is likely to be inconsequential, the tiny risk of a dollar debacle cannot be ignored. Investors hedging against this risk are likely to push the dollar lower.
Is this De-dollarisation?
The de-dollarisation camp shouts loud. But ignore the noise.
Surely, the weaponisation of the dollar has alarmed nations. Not surprisingly, many are attempting to wean away from dollar dependence for trade settlement.
The dollar’s share in forex reserves used to be 71.5% at the turn of the century and has gradually declined to 58.3% as of the end of 2022.
The dollar remains at the core of global trade and finance. The dollar forms 88% of FX transactions. Distant second is Euro at 31%, according to 2022 BIS figures (aggregates equal 200% as each transaction involves two currencies).
Transactions involving the Chinese yuan having grown at 70% over last three years represents a mere 7% of the total.
About 60% of the world's forex reserves aggregating to USD 11 trillion are still denominated in dollar.
The dollar will continue to play a pre-eminent role in global trade and as a global reserve for a long time to come. Absent a credible alternative, albeit weakened, the dollar is here to stay.
Rate Expectations Point to the Fed Pausing Earlier Than ECB
CME’s FedWatch tool shows a 78% probability of another 25bps rate hike at the next meeting on May 3rd and a 67% probability of no rate hike at the June meeting. Fed pause before pivot remains market expectations.
Meanwhile, Reuters reported that the ECB is expected to raise rates by 25bps at its next meeting in May. Crucially, ECB survey of professional forecasters points to another 25bps rate hike in Q2 before pausing.
Asset Managers & Funds are positioning for Euro to rally
CFTC’s Commitment of Traders (CoT) report shows that leveraged funds and asset managers are bullish Euro. Asset managers increased net longs by 7.4% over the last 12 weeks. Leveraged funds have flipped from net short to net long, increasing long positioning by 125%.
Meanwhile, the CoT for DXY futures shows that asset managers are still net long but have reduced long positions by 20.5%.
Options Market are signalling bullish Euro and bearish Dollar
Monthly options on Euro FX futures are trading with a put-call ratio of 0.87 pointing to more calls than puts, indicating Euro bullishness. Euro buoyancy is particularly apparent for June expiry options which have a put-call ratio of 0.6.
Meanwhile, thinly traded options on DXY futures expiring in June have a put-call ratio of 1.66 signalling that market participants are bearish dollar with 1.66 puts for every call option.
Trade Setup
Each lot of CME Euro FX Futures provides exposure to 125,000 Euros. Every 0.00005 increment in the contract represents a trading P&L of USD 6.25.
● Entry: 1.1025
● Target: 1.17
● Stop: 1.08
● Profit at target: USD 8,440
● Loss at stop: USD 2,810
● Reward-to-risk: 3x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
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