EURUSD downtrend. Trying to forecast price and timing.Euro is in downtrend below EMA200. This is my forecast for the short position.
M6E1! trade ideas
6E Approaching Crisis Moment for August - October/NovemberAugust is a Pivotal month for Geopolitical Events which began gaining momentum in March of
this Year.
The Economic crisis is a large contagion spreading throughout the European Union.
The inability of the EU to continue buying Debt from its member states is clearly grinding to a
sudden halt.
Pressure to break up the EU is mounting in both scope and scale -Forcing the European Central Bank
to begin enacting Currency controls - moving to a Digital Currency with no intrinsic value.
This will in turn provide strength for the US DX, as confidence collapses across the European Union.
Borrowing forever is coming to an decided end. Since the Greek Crisis unfolded, Nations within this
Political Union have seen bailout after bailout fail.
Confidence has been all but lost, we will see this Crisis spread Globally. It is unavoidable.
The Moneyness of Credit has dissolved:
Christine Lagarde - "We think that it's a duty of us to actually have available digital currencies that
would operate to the benefit of consumers."
Nothing could be further from the truth.
FX will come under immense duress. Dark Pools will profit exponentially in to 2022.
Negative interest rates have destroyed the European bond markets, the very same will occur here
the coming years.
Debt, no Treasury has intentions to pay back with anything but inflated script - this too, has failed
for the EU.
We will see how the 6E trades from August to October, my Analysis brings me to conclude this charade
is approaching its disruptive end.
It is best to tread lightly in FX as VX will increase dramatically.
The spillover effect will be dramatic, Yield Curve Control (YCC) will come under immense scrutiny once
we see LaGarde and her ilk begin to roll out their Agenda, EU Coin.
Extreme Caution Warranted - Regards, L11
Volumes. Daytrading. Signals, trades and statements every day.Hey everybody. I am a Daytrader and I do effective market analysis based on price and volume. Yes, really effective and you will see that ;)
I have a complex system of analysis, unlike that primitive volume analysis, which is described everywhere on the Internet. Not to mention other garbage analysis methods, like graphic, candlestick, technical, waves analysis and other crap.
At the moment I am working with 6E (EUR/USD) and I will share with you the analysis and signals my system provides. Try the signals, enjoy the results and ask questions.
Those signals that I will give here, I will work out myself and show the results directly on the charts at the end of the day. I will also periodically post the statement from the terminal.
In fact, I'm already running my blog from the beginning of May. For starters I just wanted to try what it is like to trade publicly, publishing my analysis and all my trades every day. I started writing literally for myself and a couple of friends, and now that I'm more or less on the rails, I've decided that I'm going to start doing it for an audience.
Decided that I would do a little recap at the end of each month. I started blogging on May 5th, so today I'm going to sum up May, and in the next post, like tomorrow, I'm going to do a post about June. I started by simply writing every day scenarios for the next day and giving recommendations for trades. I didn't open a separate account to trade on these recommendations until early June, so in today's post we'll only look at specific word-of-mouth recommendations and how my scenarios came to fruition. The next post, which will sum up the results of June, will show specific trades and statement from the trading terminal.
By the way, I started with 30 euros on June 3, and so far I have 90 euros in my account. About 35 deals during this period, only 2 of which are in the small loss, almost break-even .
IMPORTANT NOTE: there are a lot of traders who show their "successful" analytics and trading on the Internet, but in 99% of cases it is just a demonstration of some profitable deals/days, which happen to everyone with different frequency. Obviously, all this is worthless, because for one successful forecast and a profitable day there may be 5 losing trades. I, in turn, demonstrate my analytics and its results, as well as my trading absolutely every day. Thus, it is possible to get an objective picture of how effective it all is. And of course I show a complete report in the form of the statement from the terminal.
For instance, I have missed only 1 day in May, I simply slept through it, but it was Friday and, as you can see from my Friday posts, I almost never trade on that day and do not give signals, so no big deal. Below I have given quotes from my posts, where I have registered my scenarios and recommendations, as well as the way they were implemented. Some days I have not given as an example, because on those days I either did not give clear recommendations (which I directly wrote about in the post for that day), or I gave some far-out levels for trading, which eventually were not achieved. You can see all the posts for each day without exception on my blog at any site you like.
May 6.
"As stated yesterday, there were rotations near the lower limit of the local balance."
***Screenshots in the reddit article by the link attached to this post***
May 10.
"But as I said on Thursday, the price is at the lower boundary of the local balance and it's not ready to move down at all. And said to pay attention to the fact that the volume of the previous day has moved down and the price is fixing above it, which tells evidently about the strength of the buyers and the intention to continue the local balance. As a result, Friday was very strong and confident and on the volume went up, implementing a passage to the upper boundary of the local balance."
***Screenshots in the reddit article by the link attached to this post***
May 11.
"Yesterday I wrote that we were at the upper boundary of the local balance (blue rectangle on the screenshot) and that the price would rotate on this boundary all day long.
That's exactly what happened, there was a rotation that formed an intraday small balance, from the lower boundary of which I suggested buying (1.2130) in yesterday's post."
***Screenshots in the reddit article by the link attached to this post***
May 12.
"I'm sure you're just as pleased as I am to see the beautifully realized scenarios we predict every day. In yesterday's post, I wrote that price would continue to rotate within the intraday balance (blue rectangle). I also wrote that the limits of the balance will widen a little bit and it makes sense to sell from 1.2193. But it was a far and safe level for the short. And the closer level, which was also marked on the chart (gray level) was realized."
***Screenshots in the reddit article by the link attached to this post***
May 13.
"Right away I will draw your attention to how once again the market has accurately implemented our scenario. As I wrote yesterday, the selling factors intensified, which indicates a soon movement within the local balance down. As usual, I gave the safest levels for deals, and the price did not reach the short-side level just 5 points, but turned down from the overnight volumes of the previous day very nicely (black level on the first screenshot).
***Screenshots in the reddit article by the link attached to this post***
May 18.
"Yesterday I wrote that the market was not ready to make an impulse yet and would trade within the boundaries of the intraday balance. I marked the balance with an orange rectangle. That's what happened."
***Screenshots in the reddit article by the link attached to this post***
May 19
"Well guys, even though I got up late yesterday and we missed the main movement with you, the recommendations for the rest of the day worked out more than accurately.
The price did turn around from the level indicated in yesterday's post, falling just a couple of pips short. Like I said, the price reached the thin support and reversed to 1.2233. I could not indicate the thin support at that time, because it was to be formed only in the future, when the price would move fully upwards. But even here, the defined gray level on the chart proved to be the thin support, from which the price reversed upward."
***Screenshots in the reddit article by the link attached to this post***
May 20
"As I wrote in a previous post "the possibility of the impulse ending or at least pausing is also there, as we are at serious resistance levels." In the end, the resistance did indeed trigger, selling activity occurred. And as I said, if the level of 1.2247 will not be passed, we will buy from 1.2200 with the target of 1.2237. Note how accurately our target (the red level) was eventually worked out."
***Screenshots in the reddit article by the link attached to this post***
May 25.
"Yesterday I wrote, "Sell from 1.2205, if the price goes there right after the market opening in the next 5-6 hours with the target 1.2173 or with the target 1.2188 if completely safe." As a result, I was able to see how beautifully and accurately these levels worked out and the targets were set. However, it happened later than I wrote in the scenario, so unfortunately the signal was not implemented.
However, the following scenario was executed, "If there is no selling volume at 1.2205 and the price will rise above 1.2188, you can buy to 1.2237". As a result, the price fixed above 1.2188 and really reached 1.2237, showing the strength of the buyers."
***Screenshots in the reddit article by the link attached to this post***
May 26.
"Of course we had considered that scenario, that's why I advised to buy from 1.2237 and from 1.2244, aiming for 1.2260. In the end both levels were bought and the price even went a little bit lower to 1.2228, which was also marked on the chart. However, the price reached the target only early this morning, so I understand you, for those, who were unsure and closed early at break-even or with small profit."
***Screenshots in the reddit article by the link attached to this post***
May 27.
"Yesterday I wrote that there would be no repositioning upwards and that the intraday balance would continue and the price would go towards its lower boundary to 1.2175 - 1.2160. As you can see on the chart, that's what happened."
***Screenshots in the reddit article by the link attached to this post***
May 28
"I want to start right off by saying how great the levels that you and I mark on the chart work. It's a pleasure to work with them and observe this beauty. Yesterday I gave only sell signals. As a result, the sales happened exactly from the level I gave and beautifully reached their target (in yesterday's post: Sell from 1.2215 with a target of 1.2187)."
***Screenshots in the reddit article by the link attached to this post***
May 31
"As you may remember, on Friday I traditionally did not give any signals for the day, but I said that the price was likely to fall further and suggested to sell from 1.22, if the selling at the level occurred. As a result we got to 1.22 and the market went down rapidly and nicely. I did not give any signals, but the scenario worked perfectly.
***Screenshots in the reddit article by the link attached to this post***
Here is my current statements from the moment I made my account and deposited 30 euros.
***Screenshots in the reddit article by the link attached to this post***
I will make a post tomorrow morning with analysis and signals for tomorrow. Do not miss ;)
Double Bottom ?
Its taken nine days to put in this double bottom.
Circled you can see that there has been some significant accumulation.
No doubt that a lot of longs putting it on the line.
I would like to confirmation before getting long - moreover running all those longs to the short side and taking out their stops is likely before moving up.
EUR/USD - Looking for short positionAfter a big drop, we are getting closer to strong support.
First - OB (Over balance) was tested yesterday. (Pink dot line)
This shows the strength of the bears.
If we break this support, around 1.2000 there is another - green rectangle.
Noteworthy is the intersection of the 25/50 day EMA
EURO FX Futures 02 JUN 2021 1618 hrsTo be determined. But tentative target areas. All contingent upon the actions of smart money.. they run the show.
EUR at key 4h level ahead of GDP report
EUR pulled back to 4h MA50. We are coming up on the Memorial Day holiday which will keep markets closed on Monday, May 31. That could bring some added volatility with traders readjusting positions ahead of the long weekend, as well as critical data coming up next week, including the May Employment Report.
Fundamental analysis
With 50% of the U.S. adult population now fully vaccinated and most states close to fully reopened, it seems reasonable to say we are entering the early stages of the post-pandemic era. One of the key themes that has driven bullish momentum in EUR during the pandemic is that we were headed toward a post-pandemic economic boom fueled by cheap and easy money, cheap energy costs, and a lot of available (aka cheap) labor that weakened USD.
In reality, energy is kind of cheap-ish, but labor is not so readily available or cheap, and the "cheap and easy" money provided by the Federal Reserve may not last as long as some expected. In fact, money could get more expensive if inflation starts running even hotter and the Fed is forced to raise interest rates. The landscape is of course still evolving so the "trifecta" of cheap and easy energy, labor and money could still happen but investors are definitely reassessing, which is partially reflected in this long consolidation period that stock market has recently been stuck in.
The labor market has been one of the biggest puzzlers and investors hope the May jobs report next Friday will provide more clarity. Many economists are dialing back their expectations for the labor market, including some Federal Reserve officials. St. Louis Fed president James Bullard said this week that +500,000 jobs a month is a realistic expectation versus the +1 million some had been hoping for.
Dallas's Robert Kaplan warned that a rate closer to last months gain of +266,000 could be repeated in May. Typically, a weak labor market would mean an accommodative Federal Reserve. Instead, that weakness along with numerous supply chain issues and materials shortages has been contributing to inflation pressures that some fear could be long-lasting.
It's hard to overstate the extreme level of uncertainty this has created for investors.
Technical analysis
The 4h MA50 is the consolidation zone now. If the current range holds, the bulls will target new higher highs between 1.231 and 1.235. A lot depends on today’s data. I will not be surprised to see increased volatility. And if current support fails, bears will target 4h MA200. Ahead of the GDP report it makes perfect sense to reduce your exposure and trade after the market digests the news.
EUROPVol from yesterday was the low for today during GBX. Other HVN from yesterday also supported good entry points. Break of GBX high just recently broke on good volume.
What is happening with the economy and what does it mean for EURCovid has largely taken a back seat on markets expected to be fully open this summer. The situation is not as bright in some other parts of the world but for now, investors don’t seem overly concerned. Most Western countries are on a similarly positive track as the U.S., but as we are learning, bringing the global economy back online is a lot more complicated than shutting it down.
Fundamental analysis
Getting both products and workers where they are needed continues to be a massive challenge and one of the results has been a wave of higher prices. The Federal Reserve expects these disruptions to start easing later this year. However, there are a few supply shortages that can’t be solved quickly and will likely linger into 2022, such as computer chips and lumber.
Meaning the higher prices and shortages in those items can and is spilling over into other channels. The mere “perception” of inflation may be driving price spikes as well.
Some economists have been pointing to commodity prices which they believe are partially roaring higher because investors are putting money into them as an inflation hedge and creating somewhat a self-fulfilling prophecy. This is a pattern definitely seen in Treasuries this year with yields on the benchmark 10-year waxing and waning in step with inflation headlines. Likewise, the “perception” of a high inflationary environment along with a more hawkish Federal Reserve could also spur analysts to start slashing earnings expectations, in turn pushing more stock investors to the sidelines.
Regional manufacturing indexes this week added to the inflation worries with the prices paid components in the Philadelphia survey hitting levels not seen since the 80s while New York’s hit all-time highs. At the same time, both surveys reflected a slowdown in manufacturing activity which is thought to be the result of supply chain bottlenecks. The declines were not due to a slowdown in demand as unfilled orders spiked in both regions.
Data today includes Flash PMI for May and Existing Home Sales. Looking a little further out, key reports that inflation watchers have on their radar include April PCE Prices due out next Friday, which is considered the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge. Also, the first week of June will bring ISM inflation gauges for both the manufacturing and services sectors, as well as the May Employment Report.
Technical analysis
MA50 on the 4h chart held. The price action is neutral now. If price finally breaks the 1.225 resistance, bulls will target 1.2310 and 1.234 in extension. On the other hand, if the ma100 on the 4h chart breaks, look for the ma200 on 4h and daily ma50. The range between mentioned levels is no man's land and difficult to trade.
EUR Futures Are Pulling Back Ahead Of FOMC – What’s Next?Exploding consumer demand has helped usher in material and labor shortages that are not only driving up costs and fanning inflation worries, they are also reducing manufacturing output.
Fundamental analysis
That means fewer pieces, parts, and finished goods sold all the way through entire supply chains. Companies may be able to offset higher costs and lost sales through price hikes on some things, but bigger-ticket items like cars, appliances, and even houses will be more difficult to make up for in growth. Lost sales for the service industry really can’t be made up, so businesses like restaurants or hotels that are understaffed may not be able to fully capitalize on the reopening boom.
The reopening is also bringing a shift in how consumers spend their money. Walmart, for instance, reported e-commerce sales growth of +37% for the first quarter, which was down from a +69% gain in the fourth quarter. Analysts are taking this and other reports of slower online sales as confirmation that the blistering growth witnessed during pandemic lockdowns is not sustainable.
Investors have largely expected online shopping growth would moderate this year but are still trying to figure out what the “new normal” might be. Before the Covid-19 crisis, e-commerce sales were growing at about a +15% annual rate. Additionally, investors are unsure whether lower online sales will be offset by in-store sales growth. There is some expectation that more consumer spending will migrate to the services sector as travel, dining, and live entertainment all become options again.
Hence, the still ongoing rotation out of some of the pandemic darlings and into sectors and companies that might have more growth potential as the economy reopens.
FOMC “minutes”
The economic highlight will be the “minutes” from the Federal Reserve’s April FOMC meeting. The bank last month left its extremely accommodative monetary policy unchanged, saying the U.S. economy still needed to make “substantial further progress” toward its goals.
Keep in mind, one of those goals is “full employment” which the Fed has never really provided a hard number for. However, after March’s jobs report showed a surprisingly strong +916,000 gain, Fed Chair Jerome Powell did say he wanted to see a “string of months” showing the same strength. As we know, the April employment report only showed a gain of +266,000 new jobs.
At the same time, there are growing concerns that the Fed is “behind the curve” in regard to inflation with higher prices now popping up all over the place. Analysts will be looking for hints in the minutes that Fed members may be shifting their stance a bit or perhaps getting more nervous about inflation.
I should also note, there will likely be an unusually high level of scrutiny given to the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index today.
Technical analysis
The EUR futures tested 1.2240 resistance which has been bulls’ swing target for some time. There is no surprise we see a pullback. It is advised to reduce exposure ahead of the FOMC meeting. The new direction will be clear once the market digests the FOMC statement. In general, failure to break the resistance mentioned above can bring the price down to ma50 and ma100 on the 4h chart. And if it finds support there, we can expect a new higher high near 1.23100
6E! Euro Fu weekly correction is nearWeekly downward correction towards EMA200D will start soon, once the price will go beyond EMA15 on daily TF
Be prepared for short
Target is 200-250 EMA Day that is 1,195 – 1,19
EuroDollar Short || Divergence and wedge pattern at resistanceDivergence on VMC Market Cipher B, TD REI, RSI, and wedge pattern. I am currently in a short
The psychology of failure in trading Part 3 3.29.21 The psychology of failure in trading Part 3 . 1) If you actually trade You will find yourself in a trading funk from time to time. These are very stressful times when you can't do anything right, and you know down deep that you are uncomfortable with every decision whether it is finding a trade location or a stop, or target. You can even find opportunity because nothing you are doing is working out... and you know it. The thought of one more losing trade is unbearable. You feel no confidence in any aspect of your trading. This can even happen after a long period of conscientious study of the market. It is very demoralizing when you've had a recent history of losing trades and nothing is working out despite all your effort. Personally, I think it's a lot easier to work out of a funk if you've had significant success in the past, but if you don't have a convincing period of time of successful trading, then you haven't really proven to yourself that you are good trader. There are other reasons to stress out over losing trades and one of the most common reasons is insufficient amounts of risk capital.
When you're in a trading funk, you may be conditioning yourself in such a way that it is hard to avoid losing trades, and may be even more prone to make trading mistakes. This is a horrible period of time in your trading. You may find that you will not trade, and you may even choose to change trading systems when the problem is really more related to your personal psychology. The irony of this is that when you're a losing trader, the chances are you will not pick another trading system and actually make money. However, you will look for other systems and never resolved the personal issues about how you analyze the market and that deeply ingrained suspicion that you don't know what you're doing and that trading feels as if it's almost hopeless.
If you don't deal with your personal psychology, you may find that you work very hard after you find another trading system, but at some point you will run into a trading funk and because you have not dealt with your personal psychology you will fail at this system as well. Some trading systems are worse than others, but you'll never really get to that understanding because you never really get to know how markets work, and you've never learned about the things that don't work in trading systems. And it is very hard to find people who actually know what they're doing, and actually make any significant amount of money trading... Other than people who make a lot of money offering trading advice and trading systems, and that is a different business than actually making money trading your own capital.
When you run into a trading funk, you have to to deal with it. You have to stop trading and then analyzing your behavior, and your calculations about the market during these periods of time. You must ask all the questions that need to be answered. This includes asking the question: is this actually a good trade location for me to be a buyer? If your answer is I don't know... Then why are you taking the trade? You do this not just for the entry, but you ask: do I have a reasonable stop? You ask: do I know what a reasonable target is? If you take a trade and you don't know any of this information, you have to ask yourself: why am I thinking about taking a straight? You ask yourself: why am I uncomfortable about everything?
In short, you have to go back to basics. You question everything. You have to be patient and avoid impulsive trading until you feel comfortable with certain patterns and have demonstrated this one a dozen paper trades. It is this set up the accounts. You have to have the market that defines the buyers and the sellers, and the markets that have good stops and enough volatility to drive the market to your target.
Trading fonts can be a disaster and you must reprogram some of the things that you are doing and some of the interpretations that you make about the market which are not correct. Generally, going to an entirely new trading system randomly will not change things for you. You must look at the market in a more "personal" way. I try to do that in the videos.
Professional trading firms spend a boatload of money for their traders to work with some of these principles with skilled professionals because there is so much money at stake they will pay a lot of money for anything they think will help their traders. Professional firms do this so you should expect to include this type of learning in your own trading if highly successful trading firms use these techniques.
Strong Sell Signal on EURO FuturesSupport Breakout +Volume Breakout + Bearish Sptringbox = Sell signal
Euro/Dollar forecastit seems that the bullish trend needs power and we have strong support > High probability to see choppy market the next days.
EURO FX FUTURES 4 Hours* Detailed technical analysis :
* According to the Elliott rule, the price is in a corrective phase because it is at the beginning of the formation of the third wave of corrective waves after the end of the five impulsive waves
= So we conclude that the price will continue to collapse.
* The price formed the butterfly model, which is one of the harmonic patterns that is still not completed, but it was confirmed after all its rules were fulfilled.
* According to all that has been observed, the price will collapse until 1.14925.
