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ES1! trade ideas

Continue to be cautious on ES - History vs FOMOIf you don't feel like listening to the video, I basically review some trades outside of the ES, and discuss the potential concerns for the ES market. It seems to be a throw spaghetti at the wall and expect everything to stick market, in spite of much of historical data calling for a major downtrend to be coming up. This has led me to more or less remain away from the S&P other than a short on the recent Trump Pump that I already cashed out. I see more potential for the Euro and Canadian Dollar to regain some level of historical average. I am getting sell signals based on my algorithms into Gold and Oil today. I will evaluate those later, as I'm not sure I'm ready to feel the risk in those just yet as Gold as also suffered from extreme FOMO and Oil is already a bit lower than my expectation of average price around $70-$75. My algo is pinging signals in; GC CL PL ZO ZM HO RB 10Y BTC (I've never traded this, FYI) Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
2
From Fiat to Crypto: A Pragmatic View on Cross-Asset USD Impact1. Introduction: Why Understanding USD Impact Matters The U.S. dollar (USD) plays a pivotal role in shaping global financial markets, especially for assets denominated in dollars, such as S&P 500 Futures (ES/MES). Its movements affect equity market flows, international capital dynamics, and, ultimately, price trends for USD-denominated instruments. However, traditional methods of gauging USD strength often fall short of capturing the nuanced interplay between fiat currencies and emerging digital assets. To bridge this gap, we introduce a pragmatic and dynamic solution: the USD Proxy. By combining a carefully weighted mix of key global currencies (Euro and Yen) with Bitcoin (BTC), this proxy provides a comprehensive and CME-specific lens for understanding USD strength. It is a modern approach to assess the dollar's “true” influence on equity markets, particularly the S&P 500 Futures. 2. The USD Proxy: A Pragmatic Cross-Asset Index The USD Proxy is built to reflect real-time market dynamics, offering traders a potentially more relevant measure of the dollar’s impact. Unlike static indexes, this proxy is dynamic, continuously adjusting based on three major components: Euro Futures (6E): Representing the largest fiat currency trading block. Japanese Yen Futures (6J): Capturing the Asian market's influence. Bitcoin Futures (BTC): Adding a layer of innovation by integrating cryptocurrency, which operates independently of traditional fiat systems. The weighting is determined by notional values, market prices, and volume-weighted activity as volumes change and evolve through time, ensuring the proxy adapts to liquidity and relative importance. This structure provides a balanced view of USD strength across fiat and crypto markets, making it highly applicable to modern trading. 3. Adjusting S&P 500 Futures Using the USD Proxy To uncover the “true” equity market performance, the S&P 500 Futures can be adjusted using the USD Proxy. The formula is straightforward: Adjusted S&P 500 Futures = S&P 500 Futures Price x USD Proxy Value This adjustment neutralizes the effects of USD strength or weakness, revealing the core price action of the equity market. By doing so, traders can distinguish between moves driven by dollar fluctuations and those stemming from genuine market trends. For example, during periods of a strengthening USD, the unadjusted S&P 500 Futures may appear weaker due to currency pressure. However, the adjusted version may provide a clearer picture of the underlying equity market, enabling traders to make more informed decisions. 4. Regular vs. Adjusted S&P 500 Futures: Key Insights The comparison between regular and USD Proxy-adjusted S&P 500 Futures charts could reveal critical divergences that may have been often overlooked. These divergences highlight how currency fluctuations can obscure or exaggerate the equity market’s actual performance. For instance, while the S&P 500 Futures have recently reached new all-time highs, some market participants may view this as an indication of the market being overpriced. However, when adjusted using the USD Proxy, the chart reveals a different reality: the S&P 500 Futures are far from their highs. This adjustment aims to neutralize the currency's impact, uncovering that the recent record-breaking levels in the unadjusted chart are likely largely influenced by USD dynamics rather than true underlying equity market performance. 5. Trading Opportunities in Adjusted S&P 500 Futures The adjusted S&P 500 Futures chart opens up new possibilities for traders to identify actionable insights and anomalies. By neutralizing the currency effect, traders can: Spot Relative Overperformance: Identify instances where the adjusted chart shows strength compared to the regular chart, signaling robust underlying equity market dynamics. Capitalize on Potential Anomalies: Detect price-action discrepancies caused by abrupt currency moves and align trades accordingly. Refine Entry and Exit Points: Use the adjusted chart especially during high-volatility periods influenced by the USD. 6. Trading Application: A Long Opportunity in Adjusted S&P 500 Futures Trade Setup: o Instrument: S&P 500 Futures (ES) or Micro S&P 500 Futures (MES). o Entry Point: Around 5900.00 o Targets: Primary Target: 6205.75 (aggressive traders, Fibonacci extension level). Conservative Target: 6080.00 (moderate traders, earlier Fibonacci extension). o Stop Loss: Below the entry, calculated to maintain a 1:3 reward-to-risk ratio. Rationale: The adjusted S&P 500 Futures chart highlights a technical setup where the price is reacting to: Breakout to the Upside: The adjusted chart is breaking out of a key resistance level, signaling potential continuation of upward momentum. The 20-SMA: Acting as dynamic support, aligning with recent price behavior. Technical Support Level: A key horizontal level. These converging factors suggest the potential for a bullish continuation, targeting Fibonacci extension levels at 6205.75 or 6080.00. The adjusted chart provides added confidence that the move is not overly influenced by USD fluctuations, grounding the analysis in equity-specific dynamics. Trade Mechanics: o Instrument Options: ES (full-size contract), with a point value of $50 per point. MES (micro-sized version), designed for smaller accounts or precision risk management, with a point value of $5 per point—10 times smaller than the full-size ES contract. o Margins (approximate, depending on broker): ES: Approximately $15,000 per contract. MES: Approximately $1,5000 per contract—10 times smaller than the ES margin. Execution Plan Example: Place Buy Limit Order at 5900.00. Set Stop Loss below the entry, maintaining a 1:3 reward-to-risk ratio. Take partial profits or adjust stop losses as the price approaches 6080.00 for conservative traders or 6205.75 for aggressive targets. 7. Conclusion: A Fresh Perspective on USD and Equity Futures By introducing the USD Proxy and applying it to S&P 500 Futures, traders gain a powerful tool to assess market dynamics. This cross-asset approach—spanning fiat and crypto—bridges the gap between traditional and modern financial metrics, offering unparalleled insights. The adjusted S&P 500 Futures chart neutralizes currency distortions, revealing the market's true movements. Whether identifying divergences, refining trading strategies, or uncovering hidden opportunities, this method empowers traders to approach the market with clarity and precision. As markets evolve, tools like the USD Proxy demonstrate the importance of integrating diverse assets to stay ahead in a complex trading environment. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by traddictiv
S&P Profit Taking | Future Long Trade Plans Post ElectionThe SPX rallied on optimism post Election results on economic revival hopes. Likely a lot of profit taking has occurred across risk assets like this one as prices reached all time highs. There always has to be a time where profits are removed and taken off the table for gains to be realised. It is likely however that if current sentiment continues we will see further inflows into risk assets at key areas (see local support and 100MA). Within the optimism of the current up move, this is likely to be a preferred 'scale in' area for longer term investors, with further longs likely lower. Be very careful on any longs. One switch in Sentiment and the Market falls drastically on panic. Any earlier longs should be incredibly light to reflect the fact that if you are buying now it is way along the demand curve. Would not be surprised (on current sentiment/price action if price dribbles) but would not take any new shorts this late. Only really prefer very light shorts back at another high hit.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WillSebastian
ES should rally on MondayThis is a 4 hour Pivot Point chart, showing how, once again.. price travels inside the PP range and never lasts a day outside it. The chart prooves this. Try and find a day price went lower or higher outside the range for a longer timeframe. EWT tells us the market moves in 5 impuslsive waves and 2 coprrective waves. Since Tuesday, we rallied up 5 waves and down on an A wave, EWT predicts a B wave UP and a C wave down, but my backtesting over 5 year period shows us Mondays go UP about 85% of the time, and Fridays go down the same amount. recently there have been exceptions, but last 3-4 days down, we are oversold, and on Monday last week chart patterns can be ignored ( as far as a continuation of the ABC down... we are still in a Mega Bull Market, predicted by Elliot when the DOW was at 100. I heard we had 147 new all time highs, why not one on Monday?
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by dryanhawley
Market Crash. It will happen again!! Be ready..There are not only similarities. Many factors are the same even worse. It will crash !! Today, let’s look back at how everything in 2007 was sunny until it wasn’t, and we will compare that data with today’s. The current market situation, as reflected in the Fed's rhetoric and actions—general narrative, interest rates, inflation, unemployment, etc.—is very similar to the state that preceded past crises. Yes, history is not a guarantee that the future will be the same, but it is a guide that should not be ignored. It’s good to take at least the main lessons from it because listening to the general sentiment and talking heads on TV often doesn’t pay off. Those who now lament that the Fed is unnecessarily and excessively lowering rates will shout the loudest in six months for the Fed to continue lowering them. Ignoring the past is like voting for Kamala Harris and expecting change and development. Sorry, white braindead dudes… So, let’s get to the main message of today’s article: We will take a very detailed look at 2007 and how it all unfolded step by step. First, we’ll analyze 2007, and then compare it with 2024. After that, we’ll look at the financial “health” of the average US consumer and American companies. Let’s go!! CHAPTER 1: THE YEAR 2007 The first rate cut was at the September FOMC meeting on 18.9.2007 by 50bps to 4.75%. The market was shocked by this Fed decision because it expected a cut of only 25bps, and articles began appearing everywhere that the Fed was ahead of itself and would cause inflation and another endless stock market rise. The Fed succumbed to market pressure! Below is an excerpt from The NY Times article: The S&P500, DJI, and all other major indexes immediately surged to new all-time highs. Yay, bullbrun!!! Helicopter money, the Fed has given up. Sell your car and buy stocks, everyone! Meanwhile, unemployment at this time remained around 4.7% and was relatively stable. The next rate cut came at the November meeting by 25 basis points (bps) and another 25 bps at the December meeting. “Let’s enjoy Christmas in peace, there’s nothing to worry about, we’re lowering rates for a soft landing. Like lying down in a bed with Egyptian cotton sheets.” But then the new year arrives, and it seems Wall Street spent all its money on gifts because a week before the planned January FOMC meeting, an EMERGENCY MEETING is held, and the Fed cuts rates by 75 bps. A week later, at the planned FOMC meeting on January 30, 2008, another 50 bps cut brings rates down to 3%. In March, another 75 bps cut follows, and in April, another 25 bps, bringing the total to 2%. Then comes a long pause until early October, when the Fed holds another EMERGENCY MEETING and cuts rates by 50 bps. Immediately at the next planned FOMC meeting two weeks later, it cuts again by 50 bps to a final 1% interest rate. Here it is an Excel chart for better clarity !! Here is a complete overview of the rate cuts during this period: Let’s forget about the Fed Funds for a moment and look at what the yield curve (US02Y YIELD) on 2-year bonds was doing. Since the first rate cut in September 2007, it went down and then dropped another 82% over the next 12 months! What were MONEY SUPPLY and INFLATION doing during this period? Both money supply and inflation were rising. M2SL increased from $7.4 trillion to $8.2 trillion, and inflation rose from about 2.8% to 5.4%. However, this range in inflation has been completely normal since 1982, as we have been moving within this range. Although inflation had a momentary rise, it was nothing out of the ordinary and then experienced an absolute washout. It’s crucial to keep asking the key question: What was the narrative at that time? What was the “general” opinion and sentiment? It was: The Fed gave in, the bull run continues, inflation is up, the market is saved, and the Fed is overdoing it, buddy, unnecessarily. What about the long pause between April and October when rates were flat? It was half a year of stabilization, waiting to see what would happen. They were worried that they had cut rates so aggressively that they were ahead of the market and now had to wait for the market to calm down. Read: every pundit in the news claimed the Fed had overdone it and was unnecessarily aggressive. So, when did the total meltdown in the stock market begin? During the pause in interest rates between April and October 2008, the market was relatively stable and only lost about 15% of its value. It was only after this period that the real crisis hit, and the DJI lost another 41% of its value over the next six months – see chart below. Let’s put everything together for the year 2007: Comparison of US02Y Yield, DJI, Unemployment, and Interest Rates: US02Y Yield: The yield on 2-year bonds dropped significantly, falling by 82% over the next 12 months after the first rate cut in September 2007. DJI (Dow Jones Industrial Average): The market initially surged to new all-time highs but later experienced a significant downturn. Unemployment : Remained relatively stable at around 4.7% during this period. Interest Rates: The Fed cut rates multiple times, starting with a 50 bps cut in September 2007, followed by several more cuts, eventually bringing the rate down to 1% by the end of the period. Alright, let’s take a look at what GOLD and the VIX were doing at that time. Gold kept hitting new all-time highs, while the VIX was lying in bed with a cold until October 2008. In short, it took about 13 months from the first-rate cut for the VIX to show any significant upward movement, which then triggered the final cascade of the entire market. From the first rate cut in September 2007 to March 2008, gold increased by 38%, while the VIX remained dormant. The VIX only started to spike in October 2008 after the Fed had kept rates flat for six months, leading to the real and juicy market meltdown. Alright, enough history, let’s move on to the current state. Chapter 2: The Year 2024 Now, let’s shift to the present and look at what the same charts, narratives, and everything else tell us today. We’ll start with the Fed. We’ll always start with the Fed because it’s our bestseller. Surprise, surprise, the Fed cut rates on September 18, 2024, exactly like in 2007, by 50 basis points to 4.75%1. The talking heads are just as shocked and fascinated by this event as they were in 2007. For the upcoming meetings, the expectation is a 25 bps cut in November and another 25 bps cut in December. Any resemblance to 2007 is purely coincidental… What about the indexes? Well, we’re hitting new endless records, champagne is flowing, and we’re using rolled-up newspapers for coke because banknotes are too small. In LalaLand, the DJI reaches 43,100 USD and the S&P500 hits 5,900 USD. The crowds are going wild… The current sentiment, according to “experts,” is: According to a survey, only 8% of respondents expect something like a hard landing. Yuck, who would want a hard landing? 76% expect a soft landing, and the rest prefer not to expect anything at all. Notice how the probability of a HARD LANDING has been decreasing throughout the year. This reflects the general sentiment because if a crisis were to happen, it would have come long ago. What about UNEMPLOYMENT? It remains stable at around 4.1%, but due to statistical errors from the statistical office, we will have to wait about 12 months for the actual values. What about the MONEY SUPPLY and INFLATION charts? The money supply is increasing, and inflation is back in its “comfort zone” of around 2-5%. Let’s put everything together for the year 2024: Comparison of US02Y Yield, DJI, Unemployment, and Interest Rates: Interest Rates: Decreased from 4.75% to 4.25% (a reduction of 50 basis points). Unemployment: Increased from approximately 3.4% to 4.4%. US02Y Yield: Dropped from 5.2% to 3.5%. Dow Jones Index: Continues to hit new all-time highs every day. And what about the GOLD and VIX charts? Gold has risen by about 9% since the first rate cut, reaching new all-time highs (ATHs), while the VIX is still “sleeping” and pretending not to notice. That’s all well and good, but what does it all mean?! YEAR 2007 vs 2024 It means that if we look closely and with the benefit of hindsight at 2007, the current situation is not just similar to before, it is EXACTLY the same. I don’t believe that history will repeat itself step by step and down to the last detail as before, but this comparison is meant to show you that most events can be seen in the data in advance. However, it’s hard to find this information through the disinformation deluge we call MAINSTREAM MEDIA. Macro charts, which most smart money follows and which have historically proven to be very accurate, show the same sequence of events as in 2007-2008. Additionally, China is already experiencing a similar real estate crisis as in 2008 (their words, not mine) and they think they can cover a 20 trillion loss with a 500 billion package. That will require a lot of prayers and incense sticks… CHAPTER 3: STRONG ECONOMY AND INDOMITABLE CONSUMER Powel, Yellen and all politics still speaking about a strong economy, I don’t know if they are intentionally lying or they are stupid. but here is retail data. How is the average American citizen doing, who barely finished high school, sleeps with a machine gun under their pillow, doesn’t have a passport, and thinks Africa is just below England? Average Americans are starting to drown in debt, and the chance of defaulting on the minimum debt in the next 3 months is increasing to about 14%. Auto loan defaults 90 days past due are now at 2.9%. Highest in 14 years. let’s look at ALL loan defaults together: We are in a very, very similar situation to 2007. There is no extreme yet, but notice how everything is starting to prepare for expansion. I don’t give it much weight as long as we’re below about 2, but I definitely wouldn’t support this chart because it’s another piece of our MACRO puzzle. What about the labour market? The labour market in the USA has fallen to 34.2 hours in terms of average hours worked per week. This is the lowest in 14 years. It is a continuous decline, with the labour market weakening for 8 months in a row, starting with the slow reduction of full-time jobs to part-time jobs and continuing with the gradual reduction of the workforce. Moreover, most large companies plan to lay off more employees at the beginning of the new year, which will result in hundreds of thousands of people losing their jobs. Last month, the number of part-time jobs was at 28.16 million. The third highest number in history and 400,000 more than in 2008. Additionally, household investment in the stock market is at an absolute maximum, with the average Joe having over 48% of their assets in stocks. Double the value of the last 15 years. Well, everyone has some stocks, what’s wrong with that? There’s nothing wrong with investing in stocks, quite the opposite. Anyone with a bit of extra money should have a portion of their assets in quality stocks. However, it’s always important to keep in mind what the smart money is doing. CEOs, owners, and large investors are selling their stocks, and so-called “corporate insiders” are buying stocks at the slowest pace in the last 13 years The problems that crush the middle class are of course also connected to the real estate market housing affordability is currently the worst since 1985 and we are below 2008 levels! That’s not even talking about how many properties are now for sale in the US below pre-Covid values. What about companies? How do entrepreneurs succeed and why does it all take so long? First, we have the US election in about 3 weeks, and Japan’s Powell (samurai sake kimono, or something) has confirmed that the BOJ will not raise rates until after the US election. Moreover, the buyback in stocks has never been as brutal as this year 2024 – see chart below. Come on, it’s cool, isn’t it? When a snake starts eating itself, maybe it’s a long enough snake. The problem is that the SPX index consists of 7 strong companies. The remaining 493 companies report yet another quarter when they have a 0% increase in earnings.493 companies do not even meet the reduced expectations for 2024. But Magnificent 7 and AI Narrative will take it all by themselves. We’re already looking forward to having a robot make us a drink and getting into Elon’s autonomous taxi… which will actually be driven by a remote-controlled Indian from somewhere in the basement of Marrakesh. The Russell index is not much better, with so-called “zombie companies” reporting negative earnings reaching over 43% of the index. Buffet is not buying properly for the past 3 years and he is sitting on the historically biggest cash positions. He is waiting for the opportunity, which can come soon or next year. This is macro and it has a much longer timing. This week NFPs are coming with bad data and corrections are even worse. Most of the new jobs are created in the government sector. Oh and banks are holding in the biggest unrealized losses in the past two decades Also, we just passed 36 Trillion in debt, they added 1 Trillion in just 4 months. It's a mix for the mother of all crashes, when it will happen. I don't know macro top timing is difficult as you can see Kyosaki, Schiff, Burry and many more have been calling for the crash for years, eventually one day it will happen. Growing unemployment + fed rapid rate cuts are the last pieces to the puzzle. Once FED starts rapid cutting it will be the time. What to do? Definitely don’t be leveraged in any position. Be solvent and make sure you have a stable income. Have cash to use on this lifetime buy opportunity and buy some great assets when the interest rate hits 0% it could be the bottom of the crash. Will Bitcoin protect you? I don’t know, Bitcoin was not through such a crisis yet. But Im holding since I bought it down here Of course as usual this is not financial advice just my opinion. Do your own research. Be ready, to buy the bottom, this will be epic! Dave Hunter
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Dave-Hunter
6
#202446 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures: Neutral until bulls come around or bears get below 5800. This pullback is too good for bulls not to buy and I have no interest in selling this. If this goes to 5800 without me, so be it. I think after such a big rally with follow through buying above 6000, a retracement to 50% is a buy and not a sell. Of course this can fail and bears are doing the real deal here. Therefore I wait for confirmation but bias is bullish. Quote from last week: comment: Same logic here as for dax. Bears failed to get below 5700 and on Tuesday market went the other direction. Wednesday was certainly a huge bull surprise and we went high enough that it opens even higher targets. The rally lost steam on Thursday/Friday, which could result in a pullback first. I draw the line for bulls around 5850, if we drop below, we might as well go 5800 followed by 5730. comment: 50% retracement hit and market closed above it on Friday. My preferred path for next week is a huge bull reversal higher. Is this likely after 2 strong bear days? No it’s not, so I have to wait for either side to show a clear new direction or continuation. If this goes to 5800 without me, so be it. I think after such a big rally with follow through buying above 6000, a retracement to 50% is a buy and not a sell. current market cycle: Bull trend key levels: 5850 - 6050 (above 6050, 6200 comes in play) bull case: I do think bulls have to reverse big time from 5877 or risk dropping down to 5800 on Monday. If Monday goes strongly above 5930, we will likely print 6000 the same day or Tuesday. First target for the bulls is a close above the 1h 20ema around 5920 and then 5950. Above we will see acceleration upwards. Invalidation is below 5860ish. bear case: Bears had a big surprise follow through day on Friday and if they can keep the momentum up, this trend is in serious question. Below 5860 we will accelerate down to 5800 and the bull trend line. I highly doubt that if we print 5800 before 6100, that we will see prices above 6000 for a long time. Invalidation is above 5950. outlook last week: short term: I want to join the bulls but need a pullback first or a strong momentum break above 6030. Zero bearish thoughts as of now. → Last Sunday we traded 6025 and now we are at 5896. Bad outlook. Bad. short term: I want to join the bulls again. Need strong confirmation first though. Still no interest in selling as of now. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-16: So the top definitely qualifies as a blow-off top but the question if we continue further up, is still valid. It is possible that we are already inside the correction and if we continue below 5860, I highly doubt bulls can get above 6000 again. Given the current market structure, I won’t turn bear because the risk of another retest of the highs or even higher ones are just too big. current swing trade: None chart update: Moved 50% retracement up, based on the recent bull leg.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 11.17 - 11.22.24Last Week : Last week played out very well even though middle of the week had us thinking that maybe market will continue to hold inside Value above 970s as we kept getting buying in that area but it just took time to build up for the break of that cost basis at VAL to give us more selling end of week. Sunday Globex again opened over Value and grinded towards the upper Edge but we had no tag or push inside it which signaled weakness and as noted if that did no happen we needed to be careful looking for acceptance inside that new range and instead possibly look for this move to return back toward previous Edge and get back under 930s to possibly signal a failed new ATH break out by getting back under Previous ATH Consolidation. We first failed over Value and got the push back inside to correct the Poor low from Previous Weeks Friday Globex which was around the Mean area of that range which kept getting buying that gave us moves back to VAH but we slowly transitioned into correction first on Hourly then on 2hr and finally on 4hr to end the week on Friday with a break/hold under VAL smaller cost basis which gave us more weakness and selling to finish the Week under the lower Edge. This Week : So far looking at the structure of Daily/Weekly and the way we closed on Friday we could gather some info to help us go into this week. On Weekly TF we had a failed break out into new balance over 5950 which returned back inside Previous Balance of 950 - 660s, on Daily TF we hit a key upper Edge of the Range, held under it, built some supply and got back trough its VAH and made a move under its Mean area, under Previous ATHs consolidating potentially signaling a failed new ATH break out with a strong close under the smaller Daily MA. On Hourly's we have trapped Supply in above Range and reversed the whole move back under 930 - 13 Edge. All of this so far screams weakness and continuation lower to me, of course we have to be careful as market could hold and start balancing here above lower Mean/Value and even try to get back inside and over upper Edge which could bring stability back but I think we would need to do all that and be able to hold over 930s AND get back over above VAL in order to see real stability or strength return. Holding under the Hourly's Edge and under Daily Mean/under Previous ATHs we are looking for possible continuation towards 840s - 20s areas which would put us inside lower Value with a visit of its VAL which is also Daily VAL, these areas could provide covering if we get there BUT if we get through them then we can't forget about our favorite Previous Distribution Balance which market liked returning back into so much into 800 - 750s area which kept having our strong bids that would give us pushes away this is also Daily Edge low as that is a potential return target after failing at upper Edge. Will we get all the way there this week or not ? who knows but that is our possibility and something to watch moves towards as the week develops, question is when or if we get there will that area act as absorption area of all this Supply coming out and be enough to give us a good hold OR we have some nice longer TF stops under it which if we took could give us more supply to try another push for our lower Roll Gap which we have been building up to fill. This seems like a big move so maybe not all the way to fill the gap but it is in the cards if the weakness continues as that is also around Previous Weekly balance lows and if we get under 820 - 05 ( Weekly mid ) then that open the doors for it. To think higher prices from here again we would need either a strong bid to push us back through the upper Edge and be able to hold over 920-30s AND have the buying to eventually get us back inside above Value, or at least hold over 860s, consolidate without going lower and make a push for upper Edge. Until then will watch the short side or some sort of consolidation balance to be playing out.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Trading Gameplan For Nov 18thPlan for Monday’s Session Supports: • Major: 5886-88, 5864, 5843-46, 5828, 5806, 5796-5802, 5758, 5749, 5730. • Minor: 5892, 5878, 5871, 5855, 5849, 5839, 5819, 5812, 5787, 5782, 5773, 5768. Context and Strategy: Friday’s session was a strong downside trend day (open-to-close selling) with limited support reactions. As we often see, sharp sell-offs like Friday are often followed by their counterpart: the short squeeze and the question of whether we’ll recover a significant portion of the decline shouldn't be asked. While the timing of such events is unpredictable (further downside is always possible), they typically happen when a major resistance level is reclaimed, which I’ll cover here. For now, with bears still holding control, any attempts to buy at support levels carry the high risk of trying to catch a falling knife, which i often talk about how risky those are alone. On a strong trend day like Friday when bears are in control, all supports - by definition of being a trend day to the downside - will fail. They may react, they may produce a quick level to level bounce, but typically they will generally all fail. This will remain true on Monday until we recover some major resistances. A failed breakdown of Friday’s low (5878) could spark a potential short squeeze, but once again, unless a significant resistance level is reclaimed, all longs should be treated with high caution. The next support magnet below Friday’s lows is 5843-46, with 5828 and 5806 as deeper downside levels if selling persists. Patience is key, particularly in a downtrend context like this. Key Levels: 1. Friday’s Low (5878): Critical for both bulls and bears. Watch for a potential flush below this level, ideally down to 5871, followed by a reclaim that could trigger a short squeeze. 2. 5886-88: Heavily traded on Friday and no longer fresh. Safer to wait for a failed breakdown or another deeper level to engage. 3. 5864: A possible bounce zone but still considered high-risk. 4. 5843-46: Strong support below. If selling accelerates, this level offers better odds for a reaction. 5. 5828 & 5806: Major levels for any extended sell. Resistances: • Major: 5907-10, 5945-50, 5961, 5980, 5998-6002, 6009, 6066, 6080-82, 6103, 6131, 6141, 6152. • Minor: 5899, 5917, 5928, 5934, 5935, 5943, 5947, 5957, 5967, 5972, 5975, 5993, 6014, 6019, 6027, 6032, 6038, 6045, 6050, 6058, 6071, 6092. Bull Case: • Bulls need to reclaim 5907-10 to show any meaningful recovery effort. A reclaim here could set up a bounce toward 5948-50 or 5961 for a back-test. • Ideal setup: A dip to 5871 or below early on, forming a failed breakdown of Friday’s low, followed by basing and a push back above 5907-10. This could trigger an easy short squeeze targeting higher major resistances. • Without a reclaim of 5961, any upside remains corrective, and the "short the pop" sentiment is still in charge. Bear Case: • Bears remain in control and will likely defend resistances near 5907-10 or 5948-50 if price retraces. These are logical zones for fresh shorts to initiate. • Continuation selling begins with a breakdown below 5878. Watch for traps, as 80% of breakdowns tend to fail. If there’s no meaningful recovery, selling could extend toward 5843-46 or 5828. • Preferred short entry: A failed bounce near resistance (5948-50 or 5961) or after a structural breakdown below 5878. Summary for Monday: • Expect potential bounce attempts to test breakdown zones like 5907-10 or 5948-50, but any upside remains corrective unless bulls reclaim 5961. • A flush below Friday’s low (5878) may trigger a failed breakdown setup, sparking a short squeeze. • Below 5878, next support magnets are 5864, 5843-46, and 5828 • Exercise caution with longs; focus on reactions at key levels. Shorts remain favorable until resistance zones are reclaimed.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
Weekly Leading Indicators: BEARISHManaged to streamline down to these couple of charts for a set of leading indicators. Simple trend analysis and techincals are being used here for Weekly charts and so weekly analysis is appropriate to set the stage for a top down view. First up (on the top right corner) is the Combined US equities chart that shows a strong marubozu the previous week (from elections outcome). However, the following week was not a confirmation, but instead casts doubt on the sustainability of the spike to rally on. Point being, the massive breakout is met with a Dark Cloud Cover that breaks back into the Decision Box (purple box) which was previously marked out for the consolidation range boundaries. Typically when a breakout is followed by a breakin, it tends to follow through to the other end... a break down from the box support. Yellow circle is where it should go through or bounce at. What gives on this is that the following Leading indicators are eluding to... SG10Y Govt Bond Yields The uncanny correlation of this to the US Equities Indexes is remarkable and have been a hallmark of my recent posts and analyses. Here we have a breakout of the trendline resistance. Means equity markets are going Bear. RED Flag High Yield Bonds ETF (JNK) JNK looks to break the uptrend trailstop line, with a lower high that now has a Dark Cloud Cover as well. AMBER Flag TIPS and TLT Both have broken uptrend trailstops and are downtrending with a recent low. These are well known market leading indicators. RED Flags Semiconductor ETF (SOXL) Noted, and personal favourite, SOXL is clearly bearish from simple candlestick patterns. RED Flag So, overall, we have Leads telling us it is BEARISH again. Heads up!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader