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ES1! trade ideas
Setting upThe S&P 500 price action on Tuesday provides the set up as the market waits for the Fed minutes being released on Wednesday. I still think the bias is for move to the upside but with fundamentals being released how the market will move is 50-50.
2024-08-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Got their expected pullback but indexes have still not touched even the 4h 20ema. Markets closed near their open which was near yesterdays close. Mostly. Since bears could not even print something than a bear doji, we can expect more sideways at the highs before we will probably get another breakout above.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Small stop in the meltup but bulls bought it above the bull trend line. Same as for dax that I do not expect anything below 5600 for now and it should not go above 5650 before FOMC or you can consider me surprised. If anything, I’d bet on a bull breakout and not for strong bears.
current market cycle: Bull trend inside the big trading range on the daily chart
key levels: 5600 - 5650
bull case: Bulls are currently buying the 2h 20ema and did so today. If they keep it above 5600 then 5650 is probably a magnet for tomorrow. On the 1h chart posted today was a two legged pullback down to the current channel and odds favor the bulls to trade back up.
Invalidation is below 5600.
bear case: Bears are happy with stopping the advance and scalps. They took profits at new lows today and the market was barely red on the daily chart. I absolutely expect bears to come around big time again but just not right now. Can JPOW surprise the markets this week or can the market look for an excuse to sell it hard again? Sure. Is this more likely than a continuation up? No.
Invalidation is above 5650.
short term: max bullish above 5600. Below I turn neutral and wait.
medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
current swing trade: Nope.
trade of the day: Selling above 5635 was good multiple times but only for scalps tbh.
Some ES Intrady Supply Demand TradingIn all of my price reading adventures, I like to really keep things simple. I use methods from an old supply and demand community I was once apart of back in 2013 known as RTM (Read the Market).
Fun stuff. Hope you like it.
Gaps usually get filledI was looking at the ES1 (spx futures) and noticed that basically every gap has been filled when looking at Monthly candles. There is one small spot at 1700 that is open (30 points or so). ES1 currently has a very large gap starting at 4600. I believe this will get filled eventually, although it could be years from now... But it is something to be aware of.
ES1! Midpoint resistance Reversal bar so far off of a structural midpoint. It’s always about the middle isn’t it?
- We are halfway there
- The glass is half full
- I’ll take half you take half
- 50%
- Middle of the road
Happy Trading!
ICT lunch macro trade, ESU2024, short scalp, 5min 5 handles ;) short scalp using the ICT lunch macro for a retracement on buystops. 5 handles in under 5 minutes, trading off the mid point of the old NWOG :)
ES Levels & Targets Aug 20thYesterday marked the 8th consecutive green day for ES, with my top target (5629) being hit at 4 PM. Been consolidating since as expected. The focus now should be on trailing any long runners you have a support level fails. Easy money. 5654, 5667 currently in play. If 5615 fails, look for a dip to 5604.
OverNight ES Price Action REview 8-20-24Going over the ES price Action Overnight looking for clues as to how we can trade the opening session.
ES (S&P 500 Futures) continue with the UptrendOn ES (S&P 500 Futures), it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 5618.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
GAP + Uptrend and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
Looking for a pullback4h BOS to the upside. I’m expecting the 15m swing to flip bearish to facilitate the 4h swing pullback. For the 15m chart, I’m expecting an internal bearish flip for a short term pullback. Also mindful that this flip could actually facilitate the more significant pullback that aligns with the 4h chart.
Buying momentum is continuingWith Monday's close and the S&P 500 buying momentum to the upside is continuing. The next challenge will be can the market close above 5660 while waiting for Fed comments this week.
ES Analysis Week of 8/19/2024From the weekly perspective ES has a very large fair value gap (FVG) below. This week's candle is responsible for how large or small the FVG will be by the end of the week. So because of this we may want to look at a lower timeframe to gain an understanding of how much trading range we have this week to trade with. From daily perspective, there is a FVG above current price or a "Resistance FVG" with candlewicks (or "kids left in the daycare") left in it. This is a signal that price will come back and test the close of the daily FVG at 5630. If we continue with our top down analysis and look at the 2HR perspective, there is again, additional confirmation with candlewicks and bodies, left in the resistance FVG above current price action. The 2HR FVG closes at 5643.
We also want to ensure we look below price action at "Support FVGs". From the daily perspective, price action could fall to retest the opening of the daily FVG at 5536. But beware of the 15min FVG close at 5550, above the daily opening! If price action is not ready to enter this lower FVG, we may find support at 5550.
There is potential for this week's candle to form like a doji. We have inflation data later this week, so I believe today and tomorrow's movement will help set up the charts for any surprises with the data.
Trade safe this week and take what the market can give you and be grateful for a profitable day! Happy trading!
OVernight ES Price Action REview 8-19-24Going over ES Price Action Overnight looking for clues as to what the market is telling us and how we want to approach the open session.
Es levels and targets aug 19thFriday, my target was 5585, and investors have been stuck there since. We’re now on a 7-day green streak. Very rare. And sells can come at anytime at this point.
As of now: 5572 (weak, already reclaimed) and 5543-46 are supports. This keeps 5595 and 5604+ in play. If 5543 fails, selling could trigger a move all the way down to 5528 or 5512 with ease. Level to level profit takes as always.
ES continue with the UptrendOn ES , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price 5492.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
The S/R zone from the past and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
SP500 Cycle Top: New Virus, US preparing for war, Inflation, AIAs the title suggests, we've seen this confluence of risks before: the re-emergence of Mpox, U.S. war preparations driving up inflation with pressure on oil, worsening earnings, mass layoffs, weak consumer spending, and AI disrupting the market recovery.
Technical standpoint: can't get more text book than this, 78.6% retracement of the corrective rally, memba wave 3 bearish impulse is not the shortest =)
Fair Value for S&P 500, Price Targets for the next 12 monthsGoing into next week I calculate fair value for the S&P 500 to be between 5,400 and 4,800 with an average target of 5,100 over the next 12 months. The low end of the range factors in any chance that we see the economy creep to a stagnant point over the next 12 months.
If by some miracle the economy should continue to experience above average GDP growth, the S&P 500 could go as high as 6,300 in the year ahead
Investors should be cautious about making any large stock purchases if we continue to see unemployment rise and GDP growth slow.
Holding off for better buying opportunities is for the best with the S&P 500 above the 5,400 level. The market is likely to continue to see downward pressure. Right now, earnings growth projections are lofty and likely to be revised downward over the next 6 months.
8.18.2024 Weekly Pre-Market Analysis S&PThis is my Weekly Pre-Market Analysis on the S&P>
Right now we are going to wait for market structure to form.
We saw lower highs and higher lows form on Friday after the last bullish move up. So we do not have a clear direction as to which way if may head.
We have a plan for a SHORT position as well as a plan for a LONG position.
We just need to watch the LOWS & HIGHS form on the 15 minute chart, before we even think of getting into a trade.
#202434 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
comment: Market got to 5100 way faster than I expected but it was climactic selling and a pullback was expected. Not much difference in reasoning compared to dax and the same would apply to the nasdaq. Market is trying to find the big sellers again and we are probing higher. We will most likely hit the daily 20ema soon, which is around 5440 and that is also around the July low and therefore a breakout retest. After the 2 bull bars from Thursday & Friday, I do think the odds of disappointment for the bulls is greater than another bull bar on Monday.
comment: Not much difference to dax, just that this market was a tat stronger even. Bulls almost reversed completely but 7 consecutive bull bars is as climactic as it gets. A pullback is due but that does not mean you can short it at 5578. Could go further since the obvious pain trade is up.
current market cycle: Trading range.
key levels: 5000-5700
bull case: From panic to euphoria. Good times. Bulls want a close of the bear gap to 5650 now and if they manage that, no reason we can’t print a new ath. More likely though is that we stay below 5600 and go much more sideways and wait for a new impulse.
Invalidation is below 5400.
bear case: Bears are gone it seems. Best they can hope for now is to stay below 5600 and make the market go sideways. If big sellers appear again, first target would be 5500 and then a close below daily ema but that is very low probability as of now. No bigger update this week since parallels to dax are big and I do think it’s best to be neutral here and wait for a pullback and see where that goes.
Invalidation is above 5650.
outlook last week:
short term: Full bear mode if we stay below the daily ema. Retest of the lows is higher probability than breaking above the daily ema. I gave clear key levels, mark them and watch what the market does when it gets there.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5370 and now we are at 5578. My upper targets were 5450 and bulls just melted it. Part of outlook was ok because you don’t get bearish at climactic selling lows but this reversal is not anything that is likely to happen after such selling.
short term: Neutral af. Want to see a pullback and also how market reacts to 5600.
medium-long term: Same as dax. I wait and let market give more info. Right now it’s max confusion.
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Removed all but the small bear gap.
Combined US Equities Since the last heads up analysis before the bearish pullback, some more new developments came into play, particularly how the equity market turned bullish...
1. Heads up given for RISK ON in the green ellipse. The weekly chart is actually very obvious with a long tail candlestick;
2. The latter part of that week finished with a combination of a long bullish candle, breaking and closing above a resistance trendline;
3. Then continued by another breakout of a range; and
4. This week closed with another colid bullish candle that closed the gap resistance, with another bullish candle to boot.
5. MACD and VolDiv indicators are bullish since the early part of the week.
Can easily expect a revisit to the last high of 906.50, but not before a retest of the gap support.
Weekly Morning Star formation on both ES and NQWith better econ data out and morning star formations found on both ES and NQ, I believe we will revisit recent all time highs. NQ will likely reject at 20,000 and potentially bounce the daily 9ema or 4 hour 21ema to break though. Jackson Hole on Friday provides something for investors to look forward to, provided Jerome Powell doesn't shoot the idea in the foot that day. He will likely set the stage for the first round of cuts in Sept. The question is, what does the market price in beforehand? Will it be higher or lower than what he says?
Reverse H&S to new ATH $SPY $SPX /ES S&P.Reverse H&S to new ATH
AMEX:SPY SP:SPX /ES S&P.
After this sharp move up, we must get a small pullback (Right shoulder), then continue higher.
