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ES1! trade ideas

ES down (weekly chart)today was fomc, ES dropped hard on a large kill candle Weekly chart: -looks like a reversal on price action; last week also had inc volume on small body candle, failing to break higher -the rsi (momentum) turned down a while back; the rsi looks to be moving toward the bottom of these combined channels - the green uptrend channel is very wide, so ES can make a big pullback and still be in a technical uptrend in momentum; tbd **I have not listened to anything related to FOMC yet; everything published here is pure technical analysis
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Lingamfelter
ES1! Daily/15 short E-Mini S&P 500 futures attempted a re-test of the year high into christmas eve on the daily chart. By thursday, the bulls had been washed out and a reversal was initiated. Being the price action failed it's bullish extension along the year high, I am taking the current formation as a bearish 'drop and pop', expressing conviction in this trade by shorting the 15 minute chart 'drops and pops' toward the price point ES1! should trade to on the daily chart. Gains have already been realized in the first leg of selling, price action is being monitored for the next entry granted price action holds.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by AngelCPeel-Salazar
Combined US Equities - not nice end, not expecting a great startQuick analysis of the Combimed US Equities daily chart... A significant rebound last week put the closing back into the decision box. Thing is, it went out the other end, as expected it would, BUT ended with a doji (indecision candlestick) and came back into the box... which suggest an exit to thru the lower end. This is abou to happen over the last days of the 2024. And IF it exceeds the last low, then it is a tell all that 2025 is not going to be bullishly exciting. In any case, a good retracement is overdue and likely comes in 1Q2025 Technicals here show weakening MACD and a decelerating rate of VolDiv. Let's see how bullisht the first day of 2025 and the first week of 2025 can be... not terribly optimistic IMHO. In any case... HAPPY NEW YEAR 2025 everyone! Stay safe and stay happy!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Auguraltrader
[ES] Has the S&P 500 Finished Its Runup?I doubt it. That move doesn't look like it's done. The general principle that this basic analysis follows is that the market moves in 3s and 5s. Now, that may sound a lot like Elliot Waves and it should. 3s and 5s were Ralph N. Elliot's primary discovery and contribution to the discovery of natural phenomena in markets. That said, it is dangerous to get dogmatic about rules. The same applies to Fibonacci extensions. But when you combine "3s and 5s" and "Fibonacci" you end up with a pretty reliable pattern. When there is a three wave move in progress (which could eventually turn into a five), you can pretty reliably trade that move (up in this case) to the 0.786 trend extension (highest probability), the 1.000 extension (high probability), or it could turn into a five wave move that goes clear up to the 1.618 extension (lowest probability move). It is not wise to be dogmatic about these strategies though, because you have to listen to the market. The market is the CEO of this enterprise, not the lines on your chart. That said, this works better than 50% of the time without question. It's a generally truthism that markets move in 3s and 5s. The challenge comes when it comes to 'wen buy, wen sell.' There is no right answer to that. Sure, the market moves in 3s and 5s, but to take advantage of it requires fluidity and a careful consideration of your (a) risks, (b) 'Bayesian priors" (if you will), and (c) the adjacent future outcomes as the come into view. This is not an endorsement of either methodology. It is merely a demonstration of the veracity of components of those methodologies. Trade well.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by FuturesTradeClub
7
SPX ETF TRADING CHART 2025Happy New Year! Here' is the chart I will be swing trading SPX ETFs showing with TV scripts so you don't have to code. I use the DAILY MES1! price chart and position in the aftermarket or premarket with an SPX ETF. Here is what I do. After the close --- 1. Golden Cross (50SMAX200SMA) shows the "trend". Only trade with the "trend" (only long since April 2023!). 2. Use Accurate Swing ("7") to enter the trade. 3. Exit the Trade when MES price CLOSES below HMA ("16")
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by anotherDAPTrader
S&P500 ES ready to enter the buy zone based on my new indicatorTL:DR I created a new price + volume based indicator that sold BEFORE the most recent crash, and bought BEFORE the most recent rise. If this indicator is any indication of the near future, then it's showing a near future rise in S&P500 since there is an active BUY signal. Below is a more detailed description of the indicator I created which is typically based on simple price and volume action. I designed a new indicator that I dub the "Money Flow by NHBprod" indicator. It helps to EASILY identify potential trade opportunities without over complicating the process. In short, MFI typically uses volume and pricing data in its calculations which are 2 important keys to consider when trading. However, the actual indicator typically lags behind actual trade opportunities. I heavily modified the standard MFI so that this new indicator can be used to easily see where to buy and where to sell. It also has built in alerts which can be used to automate trading. How It Works The indicator calculates the Money Flow Index (MFI), but is heavily modified both in terms of calculations, performance, and output. The indicator computes the MFI using the closing price and a user-defined length. A linear regression moving average is applied to the MFI, smoothing out fluctuations to provide clear signals. Then we have Buy & Sell Zones which are Customizable thresholds that are used to determine when to buy and when to sell. When the moving average crosses into the buy zone, green highlights appear on the chart; similarly, red highlights appear when it enters the sell zone. Alerts: Integrated alert conditions notify traders when the moving average enters either zone, ensuring they never miss a trade opportunity. Simplifies Analysis: By focusing on the MFI's moving average and clearly marking significant zones, the indicator eliminates noise and simplifies market analysis. Enhanced Visualization: The green and red highlighted zones on the pricing chart offer an intuitive, at-a-glance understanding of market conditions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by nhbprod
ES / MES Daily Dec 25For Thursday's session, spike rules should be applied. Above 6099.50 we can see 6118.75 the top of the above remaining open single print followed by the daily expected high 6125 and FOMC high 6137.5. Below the spike base, 6090, we can see the two new single prints created on Tuesday 6070.75-6075 and 6060-6068.50. Tuesday's VAL is 6062 with the daily expected low at 6071. 6070-72 will be an important area to hold tomorrow as weakness can push it down to Monday's spike top at 6043. Holding below Tuesday's spike top could try shorts down to 91 and 80.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by bluenotes
Decoding the BTC-ES Correlation During FOMC Meetings1. Introduction The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings are pivotal events that significantly impact global financial markets. Traders across asset classes closely monitor these meetings for insights into the Federal Reserve’s stance on monetary policy, interest rates, and economic outlook. In this article, we delve into the correlation between Bitcoin futures (BTC) and E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) during FOMC meetings. Focusing on the window from one day prior to one day after each meeting, our findings reveal that BTC and ES exhibit a positive correlation 63% of the time. This relationship offers valuable insights for traders navigating these volatile periods. 2. The Significance of Correlations in Market Analysis Correlation is a vital tool in market analysis, representing the relationship between two assets. A positive correlation indicates that two assets move in the same direction, while a negative correlation implies they move in opposite directions. BTC and ES are particularly intriguing to study due to their distinct market segments—cryptocurrency and traditional equities. Observing how these two assets interact during FOMC meetings provides a window into macroeconomic forces that affect both markets. The key finding: BTC and ES are positively correlated 63% of the time around FOMC meetings. This suggests that, despite their differences, both markets often react similarly to macroeconomic developments during these critical periods. 3. Methodology and Data Overview To analyze the BTC-ES correlation, we focused on a specific timeframe: one day before to one day after each FOMC meeting. Daily closing prices for both assets were used to calculate correlations, providing a clear view of their relationship during these events. The analysis includes data from multiple FOMC meetings spanning several years. The accompanying charts—such as the correlation heatmap, table of BTC-ES correlations, and line chart—help visualize these findings, highlighting the periods of positive and negative correlation. Contract Specifications: o E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES): Contract Size: $50 x S&P 500 Index. Minimum Tick: 0.25 points, equivalent to $12.50. Initial Margin Requirement: Approximately $15,500 (subject to change). o Bitcoin Futures (BTC): Contract Size: 5 Bitcoin. Minimum Tick: $5 per Bitcoin, equivalent to $25 per tick. Initial Margin Requirement: Approximately $112,000 (subject to change). These specifications highlight the differences in notional value and margin requirements, underscoring the distinct characteristics of each contract. 4. Findings: BTC and ES Correlations During FOMC Meetings The analysis reveals several noteworthy trends: Positive Correlations (63% of the time): During these periods, BTC and ES tend to move in the same direction, reflecting shared sensitivity to macroeconomic themes such as interest rate adjustments or economic projections. Negative Correlations: These occur sporadically, suggesting that, in certain scenarios, BTC and ES respond differently to FOMC announcements. 5. Interpretation: Why Do BTC and ES Correlate? The observed correlation between Bitcoin futures (BTC) and E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) around FOMC meetings can be attributed to several factors: Macro Sensitivity: Both BTC and ES are heavily influenced by macroeconomic variables such as interest rate decisions, inflation expectations, and liquidity changes. The FOMC meetings, being central to these narratives, often create synchronized market reactions. Institutional Adoption: The increasing participation of institutional investors in Bitcoin trading aligns its performance more closely with traditional risk assets like equities. This is evident during FOMC events, where institutional sentiment towards risk assets tends to align. Market Liquidity: FOMC meetings often drive liquidity shifts across asset classes. This can lead to aligned movement in BTC and ES as traders adjust their portfolios in response to policy announcements. This correlation provides traders with actionable insights into how these assets might react during future FOMC windows. 6. Forward-Looking Implications Understanding the historical correlation between BTC and ES during FOMC meetings offers a strategic edge for traders: Hedging Opportunities: Traders can use the BTC-ES relationship to construct hedging strategies, such as using one asset to offset potential adverse moves in the other. Volatility Exploitation: Positive correlation periods may signal opportunities for trend-following strategies, while negative correlation phases could favor pairs trading strategies. Risk-On/Risk-Off Cues: The alignment or divergence of BTC and ES can act as a barometer for market-wide sentiment, aiding decision-making in other correlated assets. Future FOMC events could present similar dynamics, and traders can leverage this data to refine their approach. 7. Risk Management Considerations While correlations provide valuable insights, they are not guaranteed to persist. Effective risk management is crucial, particularly during volatile periods like FOMC meetings: Stop-Loss Orders: Ensure every trade is equipped with a stop-loss to cap potential losses. Position Sizing: Adjust position sizes based on volatility and margin requirements for BTC and ES. Diversification: Avoid over-concentration in highly correlated assets to reduce portfolio risk. Monitoring Correlations: Regularly assess whether the BTC-ES correlation holds true during future events, as changing market conditions could alter these relationships. A disciplined approach to risk management enhances the probability of navigating FOMC volatility successfully. 8. Conclusion The correlation between Bitcoin futures (BTC) and E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) around FOMC meetings highlights the interconnected nature of modern financial markets. With 63% of these events showing positive correlation, traders can glean actionable insights into how these assets react to macroeconomic shifts. While the relationship between BTC and ES may fluctuate, understanding its drivers and implications equips traders with tools to navigate market volatility effectively. By combining historical analysis with proactive risk management, traders can make informed decisions during future FOMC windows. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by traddictiv
ES/MES Weekend Prep Dec 22Last week saw major liquidation with late longs going into FOMC. Thursday was an inside day followed by weakness in the overnight session going to into PCE Friday morning. Going into this week, I will use Friday's range as a guide. Friday's low during RTH 5898.50 as the halfback of the PCE data release candle, Election Day RTH low and November VAL, including the after hours wick on FOMC. Friday's high is at a LVN from last week and #2 and #3 single prints that were formed from the FOMC sell. If we trade lower first, focus should be placed around 5966, and 5945-5931. 5966 as last week's VAL and 45-31 as Thursday's Spike Down. Buyers will want to defend this or risk Friday's low. A look below and fail of the spike bottom 5931.75 and Friday's low should be considered for new longs. Further weakness will see London's low from Friday morning followed by the election gap fill at 5813.25. This would also align with Friday's range 50% extension. If we trade down here, buyers most likely will appear at or near the gap fill. So shorts should be mostly covered by then. If we trade higher first, buyer will need to build support above Friday's high and target the single prints above 6091.50-6118.50. 6079.25 is the FOMC event candle low. Acceptance above opens FOMC high at 6137.25. Further acceptance opens 6186 - the back-adjusted ATH. I would be cautious of a look above and fail of Friday's high triggering shorts. If so, shorts will need back below 6000 and 5982 to pick up steam. FOMC Vwap: 5981.25 
 FOMC Event Candle: 6079.25-6137.25
 Spike 12/19 - Base: 5945.5, bottom: 5931.75 Weekly Expected Move: 90pts - 5907 / 6086 Dec 23 Expected Move: 47pts - 5949 / 6044 Expected moves are based on what the options market has priced in as implied risk for that period. There is a 68% chance price remains within that range by the following close. If price moves outside the range, it is common to revert and close back within.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by bluenotes
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 12.22 - 12.27/24Last Week : Last week we had contract roll and Fed week, for over 2 weeks price kept holding around/over 6074 - 54 HTF Edge which also happened to be Daily Edge as well which makes it a significant area. We kept holding at/above it but we would not get any pushes or acceptance inside new Value and instead we kept seeing sells from every push attempt into new VAL. Contract roll came again giving us a gap in prices which put new contract inside the Value of new HTF Range where we were able to balance while waiting for the Fed. After the Fed announcement we got a sell down towards the lower Edge and filled the Roll Gap we created, but we also took out the Edge fully which had over 2 weeks of Supply built up over it and it caused more aggressive selling which gave us a HTF Edge to Edge move to finish up that Day which put back in 6074 - 5913 HTF Range where we have previously found acceptance in. Thursday we didn't get continuation under the Edge, instead we had selling from Ranges Value which closed right into the Edge. Friday Pre-Market price got under the Edge and made a push for lower Value but we didn't quite make it to take the swing stops which were under 5860s and instead we ran out of supply, rotated back above accepted Ranges Edge and pretty much got short covering before the weekend/holidays to take us all the way back up to the upper Edge where we failed under with price settling back inside Ranges Mean. This Week : We have last week of the year pretty much, Holidays coming up and we had some crazy moves up and down last week that gave us big ranges after we spent quite a bit of days going back and forth inside smaller ranges, so what can we expect this week ? It could definitely be a tricky week, as there are always chances for more continuation to the downside, chances to keep rotating higher so we have to be on the look out, but from what structure and price so far is telling us is that we have found acceptance back inside 6074 - 5913 HTF Range, we are back under Daily Edge with Supply still above us, with shorter Holiday weeks coming and end of year, will we get more crazy action or will things possibly slow down again as we will have much fomo from the flush down and from the rally up that was probably missed by many. Price is currently back inside 6023 - 5973 Intraday Range where it found some balance before, IF we don't get the volume selling or buying then we could see price to balance inside/around this Intraday Range and stay around this current HTF Ranges Value, after failing at VAH we could still target moves towards VAL and if there is enough Volume we could even see it try to push out of VAL but we have to be careful because if we don't find acceptance on pushes over VAH or under VAL then we could continue seeing price come back inside the Value and continue balancing around it. Careful for ranges to become smaller again which means its not time to be greedy and focus on good entries and smaller profit targets. If we do get acceptance over or under the Value we would need to see good moves into or through the HTF Edges for us to see attempts to move into different Ranges Values.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn