Live Cattle Showing DownturnFeb Live Cattle showed a negative cross suggesting a possible downtrend. Both parties battling. This market has shown a substantial overboughtness before and continue to move up. Caution depending on which way you play.
LE1! trade ideas
Feb Live Cattle Trying HardLive Cattle was up today stretching out and trying reach 116 but fell well short. Look for possible continuation or the end. Could achieve a slight more overbought before turn around. Bulls had up hill battle today. Look for the same tomorrow.
Live Cattle Break UpwardsFebruary Live Cattle broke out of its triangle to move sharply up. Look for more price volatility and upward serge to 116 to complete the butterfly. Note Double top is in play here. Caution should also be in the mix.
Feb Live Cattle Dug itself out of a holeFeb Live Cattle was a disappointment this morning as corn rose, but rallied back to produce a higher price. Look for progression Wednesday. Corn prices surged as sales in corn are up 39% over USDA projection. Cattle market could turn into chop if corn continues higher. Elliot Wave is still intact, but chop could weaken it substantially. Looking for Cattle to continue up and reach top of Cypher and possible continuation to Butterfly.
Feb Live Cattle Held February Live Cattle showed weakness early and ended the day in a bullish cross. Looking for more upside tomorrow and through the week to move towards 116. Still believe that the Elliot Wave is still intact.
Feb Live Cattle hits Elliot Wave Position 4Feb Live Cattle ended the day exactly at the 38.2 Fib and Elliot Wave position 4. Look for possible continued down trading if bears want cheaper beef, hammer up at end of day Monday, or up market at the beginning of trade day. Goal 116 top of Elliot Wave and 161% or XA Butterfly.
Feb Live Cattle Sells to PositionFeb Live Cattle sold down to 38.2 retracement from move 3 of the Elliot Wave to position 4. Monday will tell if this is a continuation to position 5 or a continued sell off to 50%. Support from Sept 22 may hold at around 109. Upside potential to 116 completion of the Butterfly.
Feb 2017 Live Cattle Live Cattle traded up to my 113.225 area and completed the Cypher pattern. Look for possible Butterfly to 116 or downward action to position 4 of the Elliot Wave. Watch for hammer green at end of trading day. If red downward action most likely. If green, possible continuation upward to 116. Bulls still in control.
Feb 2017 Live Cattle powerful setupLive Cattle Feb 2017 continues to advance. It has met position 1, 2 and 3 of the Elliot Wave. It is coming close to the Cypher pattern and could move higher into a Butterfly, complete the Elliot Wave 4 and 5 positions. It is also in the 1/1 Gan Fan.
Live Cattle Continues upFeb 2017 LIve Cattle continues it's surge upwards to complete the Cypher pattern at 113.225 area. Looking to see if it will retrace at 110 or bust through this area.
Feb 2017 Live Cattle sergingFeb 2017 Live Cattle continues its climb. Broke through the 108 target. Headed to 109.125 where it was back in Sept 22. It may do a retracement back 107.475, or continue on to target 113.275 and complete the Cypher pattern.
February 2017 Live Cattle Continues upFeb 2017 Live Cattle steadily moving upwards. Next target is the 108 area. Possible high to reach its final goal hopefully in the next couple of weeks at 113. Cattle market reports calling for steady slaughter up 15% from last year.
Live Cattle to Complete Cypher PatternSee cattle going to 113.300 to complete a Cypher pattern 78.6 percent of the XA line.
Live Cattle Analysis (Revised)A strong case could still be made for a rebound in beef prices. I am a buyer.
I don't pay much attention to many indicators, but I always pay attention to volatility.
Is it done yet!I feel like this is the big short or something. Cattle getting crush to a pulp. Big money just playing with the chump traders. Absolute low on major trendline is 96 but we are on a big fib.
LIVE CATTLE - Finding a bottomIn the chart above I've plotted average cattle prices since February of 1980. I found that a 30 year view is typically enough to see the big picture in a market. Prices closed today (9/6/16) nearly exactly at par, which has been a major level since 2003. From its all time low (53.xx in July 1985) to its peak (170.xx on Nov 2014), the .618% retracement sits at about $98 per cwt.
Since Feb 1980 price has never declined over 30% (avg major peak to major trough was about 28%). Since Q4 of 2014 price has declined 40%, so by all standards this is considered a somewhat rare decline in price. Though, given how high prices have gone, it is far from out of the ordinary to see a decline of this magnitude or greater. This recent price action is reminiscent of oil in January/February. My thought is we'll see a bottom somewhere between 96 - 88. 88 seems more likely. I am going long with low leverage at 96 if price action signals a long on the short term chart. I am going long at 89 with an automatic buy order regardless of the short term price action.
Oil is the chart above - Live cattle is the chart below
Source for data: www.investing.com
Live Cattle Long - OctoberThe market made a New Structure High back on August 4th signifying that we will have a continued uptrend potentially. Currently the market is retesting a big support zone, which happens to be a 61.8% Fib Retracement with the market becoming oversold as indicated by the RSI below. I would expect to see another rally coming to ATLEAST retest previous structure highs at $116. Let me know your thoughts.
October Live Cattle ShortThe market has experience an an excellent rally over the past 10 days and is now hitting a prior area of support/resistance. When using the Fib Extension we are currently at the 127.2 Level, which also lines up with a 78.6 Fib Retracement at this same level. An additional confirmation can be found by the overbought level of the RSI Indicator below. I am predicting the market to fall back down to the $110-112 area (green zone) and hopefully find support and head for a new high around the $119-120 level, but that won't be for a couple weeks if it happens. Time will tell. Let me know your thoughts.
Live Cattle: Intermediate Px Demand hit Expecting a moderate rebound.
Targets will be posted.
I am long
