Trade Ideas for the DowYM has been fairly weak recently relative to ES and NQ. NQ is having a strong day, while YM is sitting near 0% change. Here's some paths for some potential entries with good R/R
YM1! trade ideas
How to pick trades in different market conditionsIn the video I look at two different markets and the resultant setups which yielded the prime trades. The two markets had to be approached in different ways, especially early in the session.
I look through the price action on the DOW and then the Nasdaq. The DOW proved to be more clear cut and a trend style approach while the Nasdaq was very choppy and warranted a range or reversion style approach to the trades.
Still, both were tradable and produced some good scalps although the action had to be recognised early.
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Dow Jones 2024 Daily Chart Spike and Channel Buy Setup 42,000 I made a post yesterday about the rest of 2024 and I have more updated information. This is what I will be playing going forward. A buy set up in a spike and channel with the target of 42,000 by year end.
The teal line is the open of the 2024 yearly candle
Prices below the teal line is the bottom wick
There will be one more lower high and another pullback into the rectangle box I have set before the climb to 42,000
I am anticipating the buy in August
That will close the year around a 13% gain from high to low or 4,800 ticks.
I have my buy set at 38,774
Stop below the middle line on range box at 38,134 (650 ticks)
Target at 42,000 area for (3,400 ticks)
Around a 5 to 1 on the daily chart
Using Multi-Timeframe analysis for a major WinnerMulti-timeframe analysis is a key techniques for prepping a market prior to a trading session.
The first thing to do before trading is to understand the major moves and longer term price action. This enables us to get on the right side of a sessions move and avoid a lot of the chop.
We take a look at the DOW from the previous trading session and talk through the 30 min timeframe and why it was so important for the 500 pt rally into the close.
I talk through the key price action, the trap of shorts before the big move up and why we needed to be on the long side of the action.
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1/3 ADR + OHLC -D Manipulationbeautiful reaction of1/3 ADR + OHLC -D Manipulation with beautiful SMT at highs, entry is refined on lower timeframes.
These points are very good to monitor setups from them like this.
good target could be opposing ADR or Open of OHLC like today.
Dow Jones Weekly Bull Flag PatternThere is a lot to take in on this chart. How do I start to explain what it is that I am seeing?
The dark green line is the monthly major movement and the black path line is the 4 hour movement in between that major movements.
Price is being contained inside of a MAJOR bull flag pattern that will take MONTHS to resolve itself.
Using the concept of thirds of that major move from November 2023, I firmly believe price will return to the halfway point, which is also the top of the peak of that July-October pullback from 2023.
The ramped volume that is sitting just above the 0.66 or bottom 1/3 is a dead giveaway that price will return and take that out.
The small range created just slightly above the 0.50 mark is also a dead giveaway that that price will be taken, along with the fact that the purple box Low that broke structure is suspended above the 0.50 line as well. These are all clues that price WILL be returning to these locations.
Finally, the space between those recent double top highs and the 1 full range expansion of the July-October pullback is a dead giveaway that price will return to those highs and take them. This will mean that the high will break and more All-time highs will be made to continue the bullish trend up until 2033.
On a zoomed-out view of the bull flag, a measured move of the November run will take price up to the 44,000 area
Of course I am not a genie that can predict prices, I am merely trying to follow the bull trend higher and to me, this is what I am seeing. Please comment below on your thoughts as I am highly interested in sharing feedback. I have no problem putting my ego aside and admitting I am wrong. This is one trait I do not have issues with as I am wrong quite often with a 40% win rate.
Dow Jones Daily Gameplan Next 6 MonthsThis is what I am somewhat looking for and how I plan on trading the market. I don't know if it will play out like I imagine it but to me, this is what makes the most sense.
In order for the next monster move higher, we are going to need to pull back a bit more. April 19th's low can not be the low yet. It just doesn't make any sense.
Dow Jones (US30):🔴Is it bearish..?!🔴Hello trader
By examining Dow Jones on the weekly and 4-hour chart we can figure out the chart is bearish and there is sell-side liquidity that can be defined as targets for smart money.
In this chart, the price failed to create an all-time high and dropped, the price made the bearish breaker and respected it and shifted the market structure.
Now we can see the bearish order block with bearish FVG that makes an important resistance, If the price reaches this zone we can look for a sell position in a lower time frame.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️27/05/2024
🔎 DYOR
💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
YM - Keep A Close Eye On YM This WeekCompared to ES and NQ, YM is the only pair to close above Wednesdays high but with high volatility in the cards and YM currently trading in 'no-mans land', expect things to happen!
Dow Jones Weekly Template of May 27th BullishMonday has just shown its hand to me on what the week will bring. This week will be a bullish expansion candle. Whether or not it will be a small, medium or large is still up in the air. The average weekly candle's range is 900 ticks.
I believe that Monday is the low and will be bullish all week.
This pattern right here on a Monday is the textbook play of a bullish week. Price bounces around under the weekly open price and towards the end of the day blasts higher.
Tuesday will then continue higher
Here is a weekly template with the Monday pattern
support levelThe Dow seems to be at a support level, if the support holds, the uptrend is likely to continue
Market Maker Weekly Doji Templates (Outstanding 33% Chance)Going through this set of data since late 2021 or 140 weekly candles, I have discovered that an astounding number of weeks are of the Doji type ( 1 Out of 3 )
My previous post was about pin hammer bars and they represent 17% of all weekly candles.
Between dojis and pin hammers, that is equal to 50% of all weekly candles.
The other 50% of candles represent expansion bars (small, medium, and large)
In most cases on a doji week, what ever price the week opens with, price will tend to go back and forth around that price for either a high of week sell or low of week buy.
If this short week is indeed a doji, then it should rotate around the week's opening price of 39,160
And, since most weekly doji candles are roughly 350-600 ticks from the high to low, then that will be a good spot to look for reversals.
I won't know how this week unfolds until it unfolds, I can only watch and react accordingly.
Market Maker Bull Hammer Weekly TemplateThe following template for a bull hammer weekly candle is as follows.
Monday goes sideways. Mark off the high and low of Monday
Tuesday is a complete down day
Wednesday and Thursday form the mid week reversal
Thursday and Friday close out the week at the highs
Another thing I have noticed is that this type of weekly candle happened only 16 times since 2020 and 9/10 they occurred around a news event like FOMC,NFP, and CPI and/or a holiday. 4th of July happened 2 times in a row, New Years, and Easter.
I will need to back test more on the bearish side of the coin to test more data
Dow Jones Selling High Opportunity (Pullback 39,575)I am looking for the next sell off after a slight pullback up into the 39.5k area
The ramped volume will be the fuel to take it lower.
Last week was a bearish engulfing and will likely see more selling pressure
This can be a 10:1 opportunity
100 tick stop
1000 tick target
Dow Jones Price Cycles AnalysisThe average bull and bear price cycle on the Dow Jones is roughly 20-25 days before it switches back.
Roughly 3-6% moves in a direction
Dow Jones Looking For Next Higher Low Sell OffI had anticipated that Monday was going to be the high in my previous post. I initially thought it was going to pullback a little bit higher before a sell off but today it based lower and then sold off.
I am still bearish short term and will be looking for the next higher low to position myself short at least down to 39,650 to take out that small range back on May 14th
Funny how price is floating above that low just waiting for it to be taken out.
The average weekly candle on the Dow is 937 ticks.
That will place the low somewhere at 39,250 area, roughly.
Dow Jones Bullish Target 45,000I believe the low of late April's range will be the low in this up channel.
Price will chop around inside this box before coming back down to that low before ripping to the upside.
The top of the channel and 45,000 is a short-term target. My ultimate target is 90,000 around 2035
Every bull run is 26 years and 1000+% gains
The low was in 2009
2009-2035 is roughly 26 years
Great Short Trades on the DOW as price dumped on FOMCThe DOW was sold lower as traders looked to lock in some profit.
By planning ahead and assessing recent price action, you were able to steer clear of the early rally and focus on Sell Setups to take advantage of the selloff.
In the video review, I talk through the previous sessions price action and why I was looking for selling opportunities. I then discuss the Price Action on the trading charts and the momentum plays that led to the Sell Entry setups!!
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Winning Trades thanks to a clear Price Action readIn the video I talk through my trades on the DOW and reasoning for the executions.
I aim to take some trades early in the session if they setup and we had a few good setups in a generally range bound market.
I like to initially plan out the key levels using higher timeframe charts and then trade using the 5 min and 1min charts. By using a fast and slow MACD, I can define the short term momentum moves and then trade around them using the price action setups.
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High of the week sell off of Weekly Open and Golden PocketWith Monday and Tuesday off the books, we have the last three days left in this weekly template.
I see an obvious peak formation high printed on Monday and to me, this looks like Monday will set the high of the week.
The opening price of the week is at the neckline of that peak formation high. It also coincides inside the golden pocket of Mondays range as well.
To me, this looks like a down/doji weekly candle that will be printed. Small doji weekly candles have a range of about 350-500 ticks from high to low. If Monday is indeed the high of the week, then 500 ticks down will be at 39,700 and at around 1.5 times the range expansion of Mondays high to low range.
I will place a sell limit at 40,150 on the hourly chart
I will place a stop loss of 75 ticks above the "high of the week" if it holds.
I will place my target at 1X range expansion at 296 ticks
DOW JONES: Channel Up targeting 41,400Dow Jones is supported by the 4H MA50 and just turned technically bullish on its 4H technical outlook (RSI = 55.413, MACD = 58.400, ADX = 34.689). As long as it does, we are bullish, aiming at another +5.03% rise (TP = 41,400).
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Elliott Wave Analysis Expects Dow Futures (YM) to Pullback in WaShort Term Elliott Wave in Dow Futures (YM) suggests rally from 4.19.2024 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 4.19.2024 low, wave ((i)) ended at 38801 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 37866. Index extends higher again in wave ((iii)) with internal subdivision as an impulse in lesser degree. The 1 hour chart below shows the subdivision of wave ((iii)).
Up from wave ((ii)), wave i ended at 38527 and dips in wave ii ended at 38037. Index then extended higher in wave iii towards 39127 and pullback in wave iv ended at 38936. Final leg wave v ended at 39781 which completed wave (i). Index then pullback in wave (ii) towards 39405 and extended higher in wave (iii) towards 40191. Wave (iv) pullback ended at 39955. Final leg wave (v) ended at 40213 which completed wave ((iii)) in higher degree. Expect wave ((iv)) pullback to unfold in 3 swing before Index resumes higher in wave ((v)). Near term, as far as pivot at 37847 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for further upside.
Dow Jones Weekly ATR EstimationsGoing through the weekly chart for the averages of how far Dow Jones can move in a week.
The last 84 weeks averaged out to 937 ticks. This lines up with the medium sized candles.
There are three types of weekly candles
1. Small Doji candle (28 occurrences)
2. Medium sized candle (47 occurrences)
3. Large expansion candle (9 occurrences)
This small set of data sampled tells me that the vast majority of weekly candles have a medium sized move between 700-1200 ticks with the average of all 84 weeks being 937 ticks.
Large sized expansion candles are rare with only 9 weekly candles exceeding 1400+ ticks
Small doji style candles are also fairly common with 28 weeks being between 350-550 ticks
Now that I know this information, the question is how to use it effectively in Live Time.
