XW1! trade ideas
Wheat looks set to break higherLooking at wheat zw1! across three charts (renko 10pt, 5pt, and 1pt), it looks like they have achieved some type of confluence and are staged to break higher.
Entry setup would have been on the 1pt chart on the 27th with the second test of the 100EMA. However, I'm looking to enter long based on how market opens this coming week.
Targets are 510 and 550 on the zw1! chart. Actual entry will be with the e-mini July Wheat.
On TV, I track WHEATUSD for the real-time data feed.
Short Wheat - Addition to my published idea earlier this daySorry, I accidentally published my Idea from earlier today with an 1 hour chart.
Here is the daily chart: Idea stays the same but the daily timeframe / daily chart is more appropriate.
Short Wheat ZW1!US Wheat (Chicago) hit the upper line of the triangle I draw in the weekly chart. This line - for now - hold and wheat did not move higher.
Furthermore, volume did not really increased during the upmove of the last two to three days. This is even more striking in the weekly chart, where volume decreased in the last three weeks while wheat moved up.
This is a strong signal for falling prices.
On the fundamental side:
The US Dollar Index broke out of its triangle and is about to move higher in the next couple of weeks.
The Ruble devalued further against the US Dollar Index.
Both are important reasons for falling US Wheat prices.
But: Spring wheat seedings are behind - in the US and Russia (this is especially important for Russia). This might have a strong effect on Chicago Wheat. If Wheat moves above the upper triangle line / breaks out, then this is the reason.
Therefore, a close stop should be put in place a little bit above the (blue) uppper triangle line.
The next support line is at around 478.
July Wheat Bullish GartleyWheat appearing to be building out a Bullish Gartely. The breach of the 20 day MA puts us in a possible continued sell off. Downside target for bears is S1 459'1. If Wheat uses MA for another upside bounce we would be looking at further upside to 499'6, but with all the other grain markets in the same condition, down, we expect further downside.
Short WheatDue to a weaker Ruble, Wheat from Russia becomes more competetive which should be solved by a partial decline of US Wheat prices (and by a partial increase in Russia Wheat prices - higher demand for Russian Wheat).
Furthermore, USDA does not expect a declining "Ending Stocks" for Wheat this season although US Weather around Kansas is still very unfavorable for Winter Wheat conditions.
World Ending Stocks expected: Estimates (April) = 254 Million MT, March = 252 Million - but this is mostly due to a higher estimated "World Beginning Stock" (instead of 252 Million, the world started with 254 Million in this season).
Therefore, I expect US (Chicago) Wheat prices to fall to around 462 (next support area). A stop loss should be placed a little bit above 478 (now a resistance area).
Short on Wheat (Chicago)
The contract was in an upwards trend until it hit a trend line (1st / 2nd of March) I drew in the weekly chart (possible triangle formation). The resistance in form of the trend line hold and the price started to fall. It broke the first support line at 478 (last high) and the second support area at 462 / 459 (last low) with increasing volume. In my view that is a clear sign that the price might fall further until it hits the trend line at roughly 425 / 430 (part of the possible triangle formation I drew in the weekly chart). The support area at 462 / 459 now becomes a resistance area.
My idea is supportet by weather conditions around the world (22nd of March):
USA / Canada:
Although key wheat producing areas around Kansas have been too dry, relief is expected from the 25th of March onwards. The forecasted precipitation will especially relief dry conditions in Oklahoma and Texas.
Furthermore, temperatures are going to be higher than usual in the next two days.
All in all: More favorable conditions for wheat.
Europe:
Temperatures have been significantly lower than usual, although no frost damage is expected. Germany and the Northern parts of Eastern Europe have been to dry. Precipitation is expected for the period: 25th of March - 29th of March. Temperature is going to increase, too.
All in all: More favorable conditions for wheat.
Black - Sea - Region:
Temperatures have been significanly lower than usual, too. A thick snow cover protected winter crop. No significant damage is expected. But, temperatures are expected to stay lower than usual. Cold weather and the thick snow cover prolong dormancy and this might after all have a negative effect on the crop yield.
All in all: Conditions are not perfect. Neverthless, a high crop yield is expected.
China:
Temperatures are forecasted to be significantly higher than usual in important wheat growing areas (esp. in the East of China).
All in all: Favorable conditions for wheat.
No extrem weather or significant dryness is expected within the next week. Extrem drought in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas is reliefed thanks to precipitation in the coming week.
US - Dollar is for dollar dominated commodities an important factor. A week Dollar boosts prices.
I expect the US Dollar to fall to 89.02 / 88.50. Here is an important resistance. This might not be favorable for Chicago Wheat price but one has to consider that US Wheat is still highly priced compared to its competiton in the Black Sea Region.
So all in all, I think that the price should fall further.
ZW SHORT on 497 Stop on 534Not more than %1 risk on capital, idea is not so brilliant but wort to try.
Guys I am sorry I do not enter detail on how I chosee my positions but I can not give detail. I can just say it is systematic and based on COT and Technical analysis together with aware of my emotions (let's say three leg table).
There are many different type of COT analysis I know but what I use is a little bit different because I do not follow money mnagaers or leveraged funds I follow farmers...
Wheat Head and ShouldersMarch and May wheat appear to be building a head and shoulders. RSI is moving down and wheat crossed and stayed below the 20 day MA today. Neckline is at 460. We may get another bull move before a possible neckline break. Be warry of another bull move out of head and shoulders. Head comes in at 479 for May. If H&S happens, minimum fall expected to be 448'6.
Wheat Bearish BatNew pivots have arrived and we are projecting a Bearish Bat for wheat. RSI is still high and see one more push up to R2 at 469'2. Depending on how the weather continues and if wheat is sold in large quantities, selling may not be as big as expected.
Wheat Looking for StrengthWheat was on a little upsurge and looking for more strength to rally. Made a possible bear flag today. USDA report comes out Jan 12 and is people are expecting it to be bearish in scope. See a fall out down maybe a little. Weather starting to grown warmer for the weak with precipitation behind. Right now I am showing a Bearish Gartley. Should know more next week of the bottom is going to fall out of wheat.
Wheat futures ZW - BearLooking at a simple AB/CD move.
So far we have satisfied 50% of the AB move retrace.
Bearish goal is in the $407 range.
Wheat ready to range? ZWZ2017Keeping an eye open for new lows or double bottom in the current range.
The upside is well worth the wait.
WHEAT, in retraction to zone 446
WHEAT, in retraction to zone 446
which should provide good support and make it bounce
continuing the medium to long-term trend
XiNiaN 4 - Trading System - V. 2.9.1 - Medium / Long Term Period - (Time Frame: 1 H)
WHEAT ZWZ17 - Dec '17
LONG since20.09.2017 from 446.66
Flat Under 446.07
SHORT Below 436.53
Stop SHORT if daily close > 434.62
WHEAT ZWZ17 - Dec '17
CROC X1 - Supports / Resistors - Multiday (TF - 1H)
R3 = 475.2
R2 = 474.40
R1 = 473.00
PIVOT = 460.50
S1 = 448.00
CROC X3 - Last Signal (Long Term - TF 1D)
LONG from 445.00
since 18/09/2017
WHEAT, improving ..WHEAT, improving ..
ADX / DMI multiday is flat and there are good chances that
start long in the next sessions
A closing time over 448 and a daily closing above 450 is fundamental.
The medium-long period will start long with a closing time above 451.48
XiNiaN 4 - Trading System - V. 2.9.1 - Medium / Long Term Period - (Time Frame: 1 H)
WHEAT ZWZ17 - Dec '17
SHORT since 24.07.2017 from 521.55
Flat Over 441.78
LONG Above 451.48
Stop LONG if daily close <453.41
the long-time period will start long with a weekly closing over the 445
WHEAT ZWZ17 - Dec '17
CROC X1 - Supports / Resistances - Multiday (TF - 1H)
R3 = 474.4
R2 = 473.00
R1 = 448.00
CROC X3 - Last Signal (Long Term - TF 1D)
FLAT from 445.00
since 13/09/2017
Dec wheat is looking cheapWhen we look out a year and a bit Wheat is looking to be at a big premium to this Dec wheat, so at this extreme will add in a long dec/dec calendar tot eh already short put position.
Please hit me up if anyone has any questions when looking to try one of these low cost spread trades.
WHEAT, the downhill seems to slow down,WHEAT, the downhill seems to slow down, but I would not venture new markdowns
The CM_laguerre indicator must discharge, either with a fast down or a lateral phase at these levels
WHEAT - ADX / ADM - TS V. 2.8.4 - Intraday Levels for 30/08/17
ADM - Average Daily Movement - Intraday Levels
Entry on close 1H (hourly candle) ... if exceeded the indicated level
On the ZWZ17 Contract - Dec '17
LONG if> 433.11
TP1 = 438.39
TP2 = 444.25
TP3 = 455.96
Stop Loss = 426.09
SHORT if <426.09
TP1 = 420.81
TP2 = 414.95
TP3 = 403.24
Stop Loss = 433.11
WHEAT, weakness comingWHEAT, weakness coming
The CM_ Laguerre indicator says it should go down
in the next few hours. So it's possible to start an entry short entry with
first target at 426.03
WHEAT - ADX / ADM - TS V. 2.8.4 - Intraday Levels for 28/08/2017
ADM - Average Daily Movement - Intraday Levels
Entry on close 1H (hourly candle) ... if exceeded the indicated level
On the ZWZ17 Contract - Dec '17
LONG if> 438.87
TP1 = 444.37
TP2 = 450.49
TP3 = 462.72
Stop Loss = 431.53
SHORT if <431.53
TP1 = 426.03
TP2 = 419.91
TP3 = 407.68
Stop Loss = 438.87
WHEAT, weakness comingWHEAT, weakness coming
The CM_ Laguerre indicator says it should go down
in the next few hours. So it's possible to start an entry short entry with
first target at 426.03
WHEAT - ADX / ADM - TS V. 2.8.4 - Intraday Levels for 28/08/2017
ADM - Average Daily Movement - Intraday Levels
Entry on close 1H (hourly candle) ... if exceeded the indicated level
On the ZWZ17 Contract - Dec '17
LONG if> 438.87
TP1 = 444.37
TP2 = 450.49
TP3 = 462.72
Stop Loss = 431.53
SHORT if <431.53
TP1 = 426.03
TP2 = 419.91
TP3 = 407.68
Stop Loss = 438.87
Wheat flat to upI have a big picture tool I use that has been very good to me and it is now indicating shorting puts in wheat will be a good spot to take advantage of a sideways or climbing wheat prices. I will trade the 31 DTE options and will move down to the 30 delta strike put to give it a bit of wiggle room. Not a big trade but not much buying power is used either
WHEAT, weakness comingWHEAT, weakness coming
The Laguerre indicator is ready to discharge, this
could start a short entry in the evening with the target
in area 449
WHEAT - ADX / ADM - TS V 2.8.4 - Intraday Levels for 10/08/2017
ADM - Average Daily Movement - Intraday Levels
Entry on close 1H (hourly candle) ... if exceeded the indicated level
ON the ZWU17 Contract - Sep '17
LONG if> 464.73
TP1 = 470.28
TP2 = 476.44
TP3 = 488.77
Stop Loss = 454.07
SHORT if <454,07
TP1 = 448.52
TP2 = 442.36
TP3 = 430.03
Stop Loss = 464.73
