XW1! trade ideas
Wheat Now Oversold, Bonds OverboughtBonds have been strong on a sell-off in commodities. But now products like Wheat are oversold at support, while Bonds are overbought at resistance.
Wheat Target 1222-1268As an upward C of B wave in a flat correction, this rally should retrace about 90% of the wave "a" segment that constituted most of the recent decline from the all-time high.
This analysis will need to be revised if price falls below 593, because that it is the thrust origin for the rally, so that would be an ideal stop loss level for a long trade here.
WHEAT - SHORT; Continued SELLing for the foreseeable future"Margin pressures; How to survive in an over-provisioned environment." - Was the topic/title of a recent grain cash traders' conference. What does that tell you?...
In short, industry insiders do not expect to see daylight (i.e. profits) as far out as 2025! - And that concludes the essence of all that was said during that get-together.
(Try that on for "inflationary pressures" .)
Short term BUYAs we can see Wheat has retraced to find some support. I will be buying here and riding it up.
Grains will shock youWith all the drama of last year and many areas locked down, one of the big sufferers was agriculture. Much of last years yields went to waste and panic buying occured. Which I'd guess also went to waste for the most part.
As you can see on my chart I'm expecting a sizeable pullback in price before the event, which is completely normal.
let it collect the orders down there and get in where you feel comfortable.
From there hold way into 2022. I wouldn't like to call the top on this, but it'll be impressive.
Checkout soybean and corn also. Why do you think they drove up so hard in price?
Happy trading and don't long just yet. (July?).
December Wheat Double Top - Could we be headed back around $6.70
Wheat markets appear to be in the middle of a confirmed double top . IF resistance in the area of $7.17/bu holds, we should be headed back to the $6.70/bu area.
From a technical perspective, the chart shows a classic double top set up with the lower point being violated, a short pullback higher, followed by a further decline. This should set the target in the $6.70 area.
Fundamentally, wheat markets appear overvalued as well. They have been dragged around by corn recently due to the substitution by feed aspect. Recently corn markets have also come under pressure as the market anticipates a large increase in plantings next year, both domestic and globally.
goodbye wheattechnical analysis suggests we're near a top; while fundamentals indicate crop are good across northern hemisphere and harvest should be excellent; in all cases much better than last year's.
Prices might reverse from here
50 year cycle... the cycle of jubilee. 50 year cycles are considered the jubilee years because that is when record highs happen.
jan 2020 - lowest unemployment in 50 years
2020 chiefs win first super bowl in 50 years <----- i won a lot of money betting that 50 year cycle....
idk... there are thousands of examples i can give.... but im sure you catch the drift.
so let me present to you 1971 wheat prices. look at the chart and the parabolic move. expect similiar things to happen. inflation is here not just via money printing, but the cycle was ripe for this. play it accordingly.
Wheat Future. Strong down move reaching strong previous support.When price comes down this strongly it is hard to be a buyer. But we see lots of previous support down at current price.
I think a stop below 710 might make some money for you.
Traditional|ZW1!|Long and shortLong and short ZW1!
Activation of the transaction only when the blue zone is fixed/broken.
The author recommends the use of anchoring fixed the blue zone, this variation is less risky.
If there is increased volatility in the market and the price is held for more than 2-3 minutes behind the activation zone after the breakdown, then the activation of the idea occurs at the prices behind the activation zone.
Working out the support and resistance levels of the consolidation zone.
* Possible closing of a trade before reaching the take/stop zone. The author can close the deal for subjective reasons, this does not completely cancel the idea and is not a call to the same action, you can continue working out the idea according to your data, but without the support of the author.
+ ! - zone highlighted by the ellipse is a zone of increased resistance, in this area there is a possible reversal for a correction, please take this factor into account in this transaction.
The "forecast" tool is used for more noticeable display of % (for the place of the usual % scale) of the price change, I do not put the date and time of the transaction, only %.
The breakdown of the upper blue zone - long.
Breakdown of the lower blue zone - short.
Working out the stop when the price returns to the level after activation + fixing in the red zone.
Blue zones - activation zones.
Green zone - take zone.
Red zone - stop zone.
Orange arrows indicate the direction of the take.
Red arrows indicate the direction of the stop.
Priority - The value of the priority parameter implies the author's subjective opinion about the more likely activation zone on this idea, this does not mean that this idea will be 80% activated by this parameter, the purpose of the parameter is to provide for the risk of the inverse of the zone parameter.
Example: "Priority Long: So the author inclines more in the direction of the activation zone open long trades, in this case, when reaching the activation zone in short you should be very careful, because this area may be highly likely to be punched about the breakdown/do not get to take/activate transaction from go to stop."
Please consider this parameter if you use my ideas.
SUM PNL: This parameter displays the total % of all closed ideas of the "new" format (according to the author) for this sector at the time of publication of the idea. The calculation is very "clumsy" just the sum of the profits of all the ideas, based on this indicator, you can more accurately assess the risks when working with my ideas of this sector. I present you the construction of the idea, you can use it yourself as you like based on your subjective view and risks, the calculation of the PNL indicator is carried out only on transactions that the author closed on TV in manual mode or by take.
P.S Please use RM (risk management) and MM (money management) if you decide to use my ideas, there will always be unprofitable ideas, this will definitely happen, the goal of the system is that there will be more profitable ideas at a distance.
Wheat. lower before higher.I'm thinking it will head down towards the lowest trendline before continuing up. That seems like something an efficient market would do.
Wheat setting up all too perfectly.Looks like a perfect 5 wave Elliot followed by 50% ABC correction.
I'm starting to look for these more, and I feel like I'll be able to trade them soon. For the moment, the only trades I'm getting into are when the market tells me which way it's going and I get in along with it. That means linebreaks, so I'm waiting for the down-trendline to break to the upside.
SHORT XWM21 (Wheat Futures May21)We have been on a bull run in the wheat market since June of last year. However the past couple months we hit a high followed by consolidation between 635-685. We formed a double top and price is looking pretty heavy. We broke out of a multi-month support level and price came back to test this area and looks like it is now a new resistance. Looking to take partial profits at 580, 540 and perhaps even a move to take out the lows made at June 2020.
