MYM1! trade ideas
Week of April 28 - DXY/Oil/DJI/10yrLast week we got the YM1! backtest that I wanted on the weekly.
We rejected the weekly IRL and now I am looking to take out LOY on the Dow.
Dropping to the h4 chart, we can clearly see the market is now primed to drop. I am looking for a sweep of highs to begin the weekly sell program.
For those watching - we also got the 50% retrace of SPX on the weekly.
DXY - DXY made a ERL move and ended the week in a Doji. I am looking for DXY to continue its assent to the weekly ERL levels. We had another regional Bank Failure on Friday evening (they only fail banks over the weekend) - this should continue to bid DXY.
Crude Oil - OIl woke up this week and started to pop late in the week. I am still bullish oil into the 88/90 area.
Dropping to the 4hr chart, you can really see what oil wants to reach for. The 200sma is acting as support, and we are continuing to see dips bought.
10yr Yield - We pierced the 4.7% level and immediately rejected it on the 10yr this week. I still believe that yields are peaking here as we march towards a recession.
Gold - Gold on the weekly retraced to the 50% level into IRL. From HERE - it could go either way. We saw a displacement and market structure shift on the daily and 4hr charts. If gold stalls out there, we are heading lower.
So here is the setup I am watching for this week;
We saw YM pop into our weekly IRL level - from here I will be looking for 4hr charts to displace lower and start the march towards nLOY.
Looking for interest rates to continue to march lower - this will be bullish for indexes (at first) as indexes tend to ignore WHY rates are dropping for a little while.
Oil has one last gasp in it and will be supported by DXY heading lower to confirm its breakout - I am looking for $88 to trade on WTI.
Until next week - We'll be watching.
Bullish NFP Inside Bearish Flag (Inside H&S)I think the market is trying to rally a little bit and form the lower high and the right shoulder.
I placed the 0.5 and 0.66 golden pocket as a general guide to where it COULD pullback to.
That cluster I marked, to me, is a dead give away that is the market's objective and will take that out for a stop run.
I have noticed that the past 12 NFP's have generally been bullish/range bullish and will look for Longs. Funny it gapped up 0.70% upon the Asia open.
YM1! morning updateCurrent micro-primary count for YM1!. Working off premise of impulse wave down from 40358 to 37463, corrective double-three bounce off low with zigzag W, X, expanded flat Y. Count valid with price above 37866, with median line of pitchfork as target.
Dow pay outWaiting for Fed decision at 2 pm its looks like bull is rejecting and market will fall sharply
Week of April 21 - DXY/Oil/DJI/10yrNobody will ring a bell at the top.
What a great selloff we had last week! I was expecting a pop higher for the sell but they just wanted to pull the rug on bulls early in the week it seems.
Pretty much everything got monkey hammered. Indexes and Oil slid while gold held in (for now). The great news is we now have a directional market to trade again - these are MUCH easier to trade compared to the sideways chop that NDX has experienced for the past 2 months.
Last week, we saw pretty hard selling across the board and I think this is just the first warning shot of the coming recession. We have been in the largest and longest bull market in history and it feels like we are nearing a tipping point.
This week, I will be focusing on the Dow. I have really enjoyed trading the Dow as it has really clean charts compared to NDX. This comes from the fact that the DJI has the 30 largest USA companies in the index which tend to be rather stable from a price standpoint.
The added benefit is that there are no tech stocks getting subjugated to gamma squeezes or mania like NVDA or AI related plays. It's nice to have a boring index that trades clean.
Dow - Friday during the Asia session - Israel attacked Iran. This spooked markets and go us into our QUARTERLY downside target for the DJI. In fact, DJI was down YTD during the Asia session until the bounced it higher. But what this means for us, is that I am looking for higher targets from HERE on the DJI in the short run.
On the Weekly, I would LOVE to see a bounce back higher to 39k area. This will get us into the premium of the entire swing lower, and would allow us to target that FVG living up there at 39.4k. We swept the LOY on DJI - now we need a backtest.
The good news is that dropping down to the h4 charts, we can see that we almost have a Market Structrue Shift (MSS) to bullish. The 200sma on the 4hr chart also aligns with our weekly target area - but we could see a nice 1000 point gain in DJI before we turn lower again
DXY - DXY formed a weekly Doji. I am expecting last weeks lows to be swept on DXY before it resumes its uptrend.
Crude Oil - OIl got absolutely smashed last week. That being said, I still want to see 88 trade on WTI before we roll over. This looks like it was just a pullback to the 200sma area on the 4hr chart.
10yr Yield - We have been waiting for the 10yr to tag our 4.7% level so we can start loading the boat with bonds. Last Tuesday gave us just that opportunity, From here, I am expecting rates to start to drop and in a big way - this will align with the oncoming recession.
Gold - Gold closed the week > 2400 but off its ATH. I still want to see Gold come in on the weekly chart, but we need to crack 2340 for that. I have alerts set for Gold but I am not super intent on watching it at these levels.
So here is the setup I am watching for this week;
I want to see DJI trade higher into the the weekly breaker block around 39k. From there I will be scouting for short entries.
Looking for interest rates to continue to march lower - this will be bullish for indexes (at first) as indexes tend to ignore WHY rates are dropping for a little while.
Oil has one last gasp in it and will be supported by DXY heading lower to confirm its breakout - I am looking for $88 to trade on WTI.
Until next week - We'll be watching.
YM Downtrend until Gapfill Before next major rallyI am looking at a repeat of the previous correction back in July 2023.
Some key takeaways:
Deathcross triggered April 4th
Hourly 200sma is now in downtrend mode
Currently in a bear flag consolidation to pullback into the declining 200sma
Space under the low of the bear flag in relation to the prior pivot low
A gap that needs to be filled at the start of the move higher
I don't know where the bottom will be at but I do know that the next bull move higher WILL take out the highs and continue on to make even more all time highs as we are still in a bull trend. I forecast Dow Jones to be around 75,000 at 2033.
YM - Big Dougg Leading The PackThe weekly internal liquidity has been made with buyside resting at $38637 and sellside printed at $37463 but the overall week has been rangebound.
We can clearly see that there has been a fight at the daily liquidity void with candle bodies rejecting that zone. 38344 Fridays high is my first point of interest with 38410* being target 2.
Last week Thursday's price action might be the manipulation that YM needs if we are to continue bullish price action. Intraday highs has already been poached at 38137.
Hourly buyside liquidity is where i am aiming for.
My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go.
This includes;
- Market Structure
- Buyside/Sellside Liquidity
- Order Blocks
- Liquidity Voids
- Fair Value Gaps
- Optimal Trade Entry
- Premium/Discount Array
- SIBI/BISI
- Many More!
The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated.
Credits;
- Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE
- Shawn Lee POWELL
- Toray KORTAN
Dow Jones Bullish Pullback On Hourly Time On the hourly chart, looking for a bullish pullback at/near the rising hourly 21ema.
Looking for a sideways consolidation to go sideways until the 21ema catches up.
The green line inside of the consolidation is Tuesday's closing price.
Stop will be 75 ticks and Target is up there around 200 ticks
Hourly 200sma Downtrend Signal For Lower LowsA technique that I use is during a downtrend, the first pop above the 200sma 9/10 will produce a lower low and continue down to break the lows.
Price is currently popping above the 200sma
I will show you various examples of this technique from the last two years
Using this information, I will expect the lows to be broken and a new lower low will form, possibly down to the green line I drew.
Dow Jones YM Parabolic Dump Setting Up Wed or ThurI am waiting for the dump back down to the flat hourly 200sma and support of Friday's close.
Depending on how Tuesday and Wednesday trade out. I will be looking at the pivot lows for stop loss hunts.
Same setup as Thursday October 12th on the hourly chart.
Same broken down market trading in a negative position.
YM1! Intraday short plan (Monday 22/04)As price is showing weakness, looking for it to come down and test the below 4HR FVG. See chart for entries and TP area! Good luck and happy trading!
YM1! - Massive Sell-Off!Due to a delayed upload, my bias is neutral for the duration of the week. Initially, i was looking out for the weekly order block to be attacked, which occured before continuing it's downwards projection to the weekly sellside liquidity @ 37,675.
In my last YMM post, i stated that YM could front run the index markets and thats exactly what we saw. But this does not mean it will be the case this time round so it's something to be mindul of.
I would like to see this weeks liquidity void respected, with todays candle closing below 38,237 and YM has a good chance of repricing to 37,675.
My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go.
This includes;
- Market Structure
- Buyside/Sellside Liquidity
- Order Blocks
- Liquidity Voids
- Fair Value Gaps
- Optimal Trade Entry
- Premium/Discount Array
- SIBI/BISI
- Many More!
The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated.
Credits;
- Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE
- Shawn Lee POWELL
- Toray KORTAN
YM-D-4-18-2024Downward channel since last 2 weeks. Last 2 candles - bearish and current one is bullish. Side ways for last few days, in the overall bearish channel.
Index Futures: April 15th- 19thBearish on Index Futures.
- SMT at previous month's high.
- Inversion on daily timeframe.
- Monthly BISI as draw on Dow.
- ES/NQ lagging behind, expecting a run for previous month's low.
YM-30M-Tue-4-17-2024Ranging/sideways channel and last 2 candles are bullish. May break the channel to the upside or reverse back with range bound action.
YM-4H-Tue-4-17-2024Over all in downward channel, last 2 candles are bullish and may go up to touch the top of the channel with bullish candle.
YM-D-Tue-4-17-2024Daily analysis. Downward channel since last 2 weeks. Last 2 candles bullish and may go up to touch the top of the channel.
US30 Futures - Long Bias
The idea of this trade a counter trend using ICT concept.
US30 provide a bullish run during the London session and retraced back to the OTE area prior to US market Open.
Load a buy entry at 0.618 Retracement with a bullish candle stick engulfing
YM1! iFVG R:R 1.72After Bottom of asia session is broken and BOS is present, we are targeting the ASIA high, from iFVG.
YM-30M-Tue-4-16-2024Over all a bearish channel, last 2 candles - Current Bearish and last one Bullish candle.
