ZC1! trade ideas
CBoT corn continued long play Corn:
Price mostly moved sideways during the past week but held well. The weekly candle (not attached/displayed) shows an almost perfect 'doji' which principally expresses doubt but we have no reason to believe that price will not continue its rally up and we keep our bull bias unchanged. Our pivotal supportive level remains unchanged at 336 for now.
The upper ascending line that starts at just below 364 on Monday and ends at 366 on Friday is expected to be broken during the coming week which will be the last confirmation that we need for our bull case scenario and after which we expect price to accelerate to the upside.
Our bottom line bias is up from here with essential support at 336.
CBoT corn long play carries onCorn:
Price is following our preferred path quite precisely an has confirmed our bull scenario during the past week. The pivotal support has been trailed up to 336 and as long as this low remains unbroken our bull scenario is valid.
Nothing else to add to that other than that our mid term outlook for this price is to reach 30% to 50% higher values during the Feb-May 2017 timeframe but that is still far away and we prefer to take it one step at the time.
Small pull back may be over- Ichimoku setup is neutral, with bullish bias in the forward Kumo
- Heikin-Ashi prints a doji candle today, haDelta may deliver a cross above its SMA3. Watch haDelta and haOscillator
- Support zone is still 335-338, while the key resistance is at 348. A break and close above 348 could open space for a larger bullish move.
- EWO is mild bullish
In last few days I had bid orders around 335-336. Unfortunately did not get a fill. -> here comes the mental excersise: buy higher? If yes, what's the highest level and the size that doesn't threaten a good risk/reward?
You have to enter trades like this with the worst case scenario: book the maximum possible loss on your trade in advance! :-) You must have a proper trade journal, and a sheet for your active trades, with all the realised and unrealised P/L numbers to measure all possible drawdowns of all positions.
Trading is not about winning, it is more about not losing too much at once! Trading is about risk management, and how you deal with individual and portfolio level risks/rewards.
CBoT corn keeps its bull scenarioCorn:
Price follows our preferred path reasonably well and we keep our bias unchanged to the upside. Price could extend the pullback that it started last Thursday a bit further early next week but is expect to resume its uptrend latest by Wednesday and possibly earlier. There is an ascending resistance trend line on the upside that starts at 356.5 and ends at 360 during the coming week which, if broken to the upside, will allow price to accelerate drastically. Nothing changes in our outlook, expectations and preferred path except that we have increased our pivotal support level to 325. If price would break that support we would have to reconsider our bull bias for this price and go back to our drawing board.
***Good Short Opp***Notes are on chart.
An aggressive play would be to take a shore futures position.
A conservative approach would be take a short call position.
17 Day $3.65 call option has a premium of $100/contract
ZC: Corn has a new potential uptrend signal hereLet's add to longs at market open, there's a chance a second 'Time at mode' signal confirms on close here. Move all stops to Sept. 12th's low, and open a 1% risk long, if we don't retest the new entry stop on close, we can expect a rally to 364'6 by or before October 25th.
We should see a strong rally from here, and at least 3-4% more upside, before a pause in it.
This is an example of the type of work we do with my signals group, so if you're interested in a free 1 week trial, message me.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
CBOT Wheat - potential bouncePretty unclear chart.
Bounce expected short term
Strong resistance at 410
CBoT corn long Corn:
Price made indeed one more move down to the 325/330 zone from where it recovered last Friday with a 2% impulsive move to the upside. Nothing has changed in our outlook for this price. We keep our bias unchanged that a bottom is in the market and that price will trade up from here with 375 as first target. A break of the previous low on August 31 would negate our bias and would force us to go back to the drawing board.
Is Corn building a major bottom?If you followed my last trades via Twitter, I had some long Corn position from 329 average, which I closed when I saw Heikin Ashi exhaustion and reversal signal ard 340 +/- range top. It was a good decision, as price again dipped back to Kijun. Let's see the details as of today.
Weekly:
- Small change in Ichimoku setup. Still bearish, but as Tenkan dropped down to price after 9 weeks, by now Price is above Tenkan. Price is still far below Kijun Sen and forward Senkou B. (26 weeks as 52 weeks averages, which are at same level now: 376+)
- The whole picture looks like a 2 years wide range with 319 low, 425 high and 376 mid equilibrium. Unless bears get back into action and force a lower low on weekly close, longer term averages will not move any lower, they will stay around 376.
- MACD is very interesting. In case it crosses up, bears will not have enough power to push corn market lower, and then pull back to 360-376 could take place.
- Heikin-Ashi has some bearish bias this week, but haDelta and haOscillator are still stuck at zero.
Daily:
- Ichimoku is neutral, as price seem to hold above Kijun Sen again. Please note how low volatility is causing a Kumo compression: Forward Senkou A and B lines got very tight. A thinner Kumo ahead would be easier to break through.
- Heikin-Ashi ma signal a bullish reversal today. haDelta crossed up, haOscillator may follow if today we have an inside candle.
- EWO is neutral
- ATR has been very low. This also reflects lack of volatility. Commodites may trade sideaway with low volatility for some time, but once they decide to trade in direction, the moves are always sharp. This is why I like low volatility environments. My money management system always calculates with ATR when building a position. Lower ATR means more tradable contracts for one trade unit size, with still same nominal cash risk.
Corn: Potential time at mode signalIf Corn breaks above the August 19th high, it could be a good chance to enter longs risking a drop under yesterday's low. You can apply this idea to the front month futures, or to an ETF if trading stocks, remember to use the prices corresponding to these dates for your trade parameters.
If not filled in the short term, this idea is invalid.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
Corn prices expected to pop Corn prices may move up from here for a longer term trade ... There is a clear divergence in RSI as well and a double bottom formed on daily chart
I will wait for a small correction before jumping in for this trade
CBoT corn longCorn:
Price has been moving more sideways than anything else really during the past week which was not a very significant. Price will ideally make one more initial move to the downside during Monday/Tuesday next and might even trade into the 325/320 zone after which we expect price to resume its ascend again. We keep our bias unchanged that a bottom is in the market and price will trade up from here with 375 as first target for week 41 or maybe later. A break of the previous low on August 31 would negate our bias and would force us to go back to the drawing board.
CBoT corn has found its long term tradable bottomCorn:
Price is keeping our preferred path as laid out last week reasonably well thus far. What we now need to see is that price keeps developing accordingly and will not break its previous low of 314/315. It could be that price will test the 330/335 supportive zone one more time and pull down through this zone to 325 or so but that should, if it happens at all, a very short times affair. We keep our bias unchanged that a bottom is in the market and price will trade up from here with 375 as first target for week 41.
CBoT Corn almost ready for the long term run upCorn:
Price has pushed a bit lower during the first half of the week and did make a reversal during the second half of the week. It could be that price has actually hit the low an that this low will turn out to be the low for a long time. However, after having called for a low too early 2 or 3 times during the past weeks we have become a bit more cautious and want to see confirmation. Besides, there is no hurry to jump into this market as with the picture as it currently develops we will certainly see a test of same low so we won't miss too much of it.
There is a resistance zone at the 330/335 zone where price traded to during last Friday and a decisive break of same will give us the green light to look for higher levels from there. However, for now we want to hold back a bit longer just to see hoe this plays out and whether price , maybe, wants to make on more push to the downside.
It is worth keeping in mind that, once a tradable low has been put on the chart, we will be looking for an very far reaching move to the upside that will take price to 450 and even possibly 500 during the first quarter of 2017. That would be some 405 to 70% higher than what we are looking at now and can be classified as a 'massive increase'. Having said so, we will have to take this one step at the time and will need to identify the tradable bottom first.
Similar to WheatHeikin-Ashi signals bearish consolidation or some pull back is possible.
In case of corn, continous chart shows a slightly higher low too, and Tenkan is still above Kijun.
If you consider a small swing buy with tight stop, Corn is probably a better candidate than Wheat.
CBoT corn wrong again and back to neutral for nowCorn:
Price took a 5% beating during the past week and has therefore principally negated our bull scenario that we had put on the chart last week. Still, we see that the bottoming out is imminent although the confirmation of same has not yet been delivered and price is close to its contract low of Aug 12 at 322.50 which is likely going to be taken out during the coming week.
We are taking a step back for a breather on this chart and we are now looking, again, for a bottom to form on very short term and keep the 310/300 region for that on our mind.
CBoT corn long playCorn:
Price action did confirm that the bottom is in the market and price moved up some 3% during the week. We call it a bull bias from here but would like to see an impulsive move up during the coming week to secure the move up more solidly. A draw back could still occur but is not in our favourite scenario.
