ZB1! trade ideas
[Long] $ZB Mid-termEntry @ below 142'20
Target @ below 148'16
Stop Loss @ 140'24 or lower
Success Probability: High
ZB1! - Bond trend is up, flow is downThe orange stair stepping of the bigger structures (Pivots) on this chart show us, that the trend in this timeframe is up.
But currently there is a opposite flow going on, to the downside. The flow is NOT the trend, but the minor stair stepping down on the level of the market breath.
The white Fork is a "Pullback-Fork", as I call it. It measures the potential pullback (from the upside to the downside in this case), and where price will reach the Centerline (dashed white line) over 80% of time.
The yellow Mini-Fork give us context in the flow of the market. As soon as price is trading above the U-MLH (upper-medianline-parallel), price has a high tendency to swing back to the upside and retrieve it's current direction, the trend (orange stair steps).
Just observe without trading and see how this plays out. You will learn a lot...
P!
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T-Bond Future SEP18 (1d)Trading Signal
Short Position (EP) : 145.34375
Stop Loss (SL) : 145.71875
Take Profit (TP) : 144.53125, 143.59375
Description
ZB formed Double Repo Sell at 1d time frame. Trade setup with Sell Limit at 0.382 Level (145.34375) and place stop after 0.618 level (145.71875). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement (144.53125) and 143.59375
Money Management
Money in portfolio : $133,000
Risk Management (1%) : $1,330
Position Sizing
$0.1 = +-$100 (Standard)
Commission fee = -$1.67/contract (Standard)
EP to SL = $0.4 = -$375/contract (STD)
Contract size to open = 4 standard contracts
EP to TP#1 = $0.81 = +$812.5 (STD)
EP to TP#2 = $1.75 = +$1,750 (STD)
Expected Result
Commission Fee = -$13.36
Loss = -$1,500
Gain#1 = +$1,625
Gain#2 = +$3,500
Total Gain = +$5,125
Risk/Reward Ratio = 3.39
Short BUBI think you have three choices: go Long NOB, Short BUB, or do both (in turn, be Short the ZB butterfly). I've chosen to concentrate on BUB trades until my account and my psychology can handle the risk.
Short 30y bondsThere was a precise and vigorous rejection from the upper parallel of this descending Modified Schiff pitchfork
Stop above previous high at 147-00
Enter at 144-25
Take profit at 140-00
Long BUB spreadI had to reverse my position earlier today. And of course, I end-up entering my long BUB trade at the top of the pivot. Taking some heat, but sticking with my long BUB bias
Bonds Going DownLong term downtrend about to resume. On the TLT play, I see under 108 by Jan 2019 option expiration.
Treasury bond futures/TLT: Interesting place to buyThis might be worth a shot as a hedge for equity holdings here.
Risk 3 ATR down from here.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
ZB - Bonds on the waySo Forkers - here's your Bond Trade I've mentioned in the free ForkTrading Group Weekly Outlook.
Next Station, WL4.
P!
ZB descending channel A lower low ("B" compared to "A") below a descending channel can signal continuation.
Keep diving?30 Y under significant pressure. Hasn't come out of VWAP bands in some time. $TLT $IEF $GLD $GDX $DXY
