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Mini Cboe Volatility Index (VXM) FuturesMini Cboe Volatility Index (VXM) FuturesMini Cboe Volatility Index (VXM) Futures

Mini Cboe Volatility Index (VXM) Futures

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VXM1! trade ideas

Jackson Hole PreviewSome quick thoughts about the current rate cut expectations and what I expect for the market reaction to Powell's speech. I think for the most part it should be avoided until things are more clear, but once we finally get the first cut I think the market will begin to pick the real direction we're going to see for the next 3-6 months. I think it'll be a sell the news event, but maybe it'll be like June and we'll just melt up for weeks. Remember it starts after open on Friday and we also have some jobs and PMI data in the morning tomorrow.
CBOE:VX1!
by AdvancedPlays
3
VX Paths Moving ForwardVX is still deciding if it wants to hold this 15.50 area on a retest or not. For now it is holding and reclaimed after only a few hours below intraday. This is also a retest of the trendline breakout from 2022 that I've talked so much about. This is everything here, nothing else matters to me in the grand scheme of things. I believe we just experienced yet another exit liquidity rally and it's near the end. I may be wrong, but what's important is that I know when I'm wrong as soon as possible. I will know I'm wrong if VX can not hold above 15.50. It's looking a lot more bullish now, broke the downtrend and heading up for a test of 16.25
CBOE:VX1!Long
by AdvancedPlays
Dow Theory: A Guide to Trend FollowingThis is a follow up idea from my recent idea about a trade setup on the Nasdaq that I thought was an excellent opportunity due to the major trend break that had lasted nearly a full year. We'll see if that ends up working out for me or not. I think it's too soon to say, but as of now it did break above and close above the line on Friday. This is a short version with some more examples, but you can check out the last video along with most of my ideas because they almost all include trend analysis. I think the power of using Dow Theory and basic trendlines is often overlooked. This is why my charts don't have indicators on them, trend following is all I need to be profitable. There are many ways to trade and all kinds of strategies you can make money with, but this is how I do it and it's how legends like Jesse Livermore did it over 100 years ago.
CBOE:VX1!
by AdvancedPlays
5
VX Major Support Test Ahead of CPIIn typical fashion, VX has been getting crushed since the big spike last week, falling nearly $30 from the high in just weeks. However, it is coming into critical support now. I consider this to be critical because it is previous resistance from May and July before finally breaking out above. If bears are going to have any chance to stop this rally, VX can not break support here. It may briefly break and reclaim, but if it sustains below for an extended period it looks like we'll be back to risk on mode for a while.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by AdvancedPlays
Is VX Dead Again?As with most charts I'm sharing right now, VX is sitting at a make or break level. The fact that we have so many stocks and indexes sitting at critical support and resistance levels tells me we're going to move, and move a lot soon. We've already moved a lot, but we're basically back where we started. I don't think it's over, I think too much damage has been done. However, anything can happen when VX is elevated like this so I'm prepared for a big squeeze. Bears will need to see VX hold and for ES to remain below 5350 to have any real chance. If we do see VX break below this support, I'd expect a melt up over the next week or two.
CBOE:VX1!
by AdvancedPlays
Another VX BreakoutVX was awfully weak this morning, but it never broke below the 21ish area it had launched from last Friday. At the same time VX was holding support, ES filled its gap from Sunday evening, which led to a sharp drop and a spike on VX. Now ES has erased the entire move and turned red on the session. It broke back below 5330 and kept going below 5300 as well. 5300 has been broken by a significant amount now. VX broke its downtrend and is headed back for a test of the high from Tuesday. Critical test here, I think things are right on the edge still. Not sure what's going to happen, I really have no idea.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by AdvancedPlays
The VX Explosion is Just BeginningHere's a 4hr chart for VX. We can see VX just broke out above a major downtrend dating back to highs in October of 2023. So far, VX has stalled at the April highs around 22.50. I have a few scenarios I am planning for, but it's really all about this major downtrend breakout and some key horizontal support and resistance levels for me. BTC is looking rough along with the weekend dow, but we'll see how futures open later this evening and it can of course completely change by the time NYSE opens in the morning. If VX continues above the April high on Monday, I'll be looking for it to hold on any retests, if it can't do that, bulls may have some relief. Next area above is an important low dating back to September of 2023 at 26. I'd expect VX to fail there at least briefly, and that could be the top for this run as well. If it does not stop there, I think we can almost confirm that a new major leg has started, but for not it is still on the edge in my opinion. Looking rough though. If VX fails to break above April highs tomorrow, maybe bulls will see some relief and we might have a short squeeze. I'm currently bearish as can be as many of you know, but VX is everything. If VX does not sustain this move, this dump will be short lived.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by AdvancedPlays
FOMC Trade Plans for ES/SPYLooks like we may be setting up for a volatile FOMC. My first though is to think that it will be a sell the news event when the Fed confirms a 25 point cut will be coming in September, but I'll stick to the charts. VX is always the most critical thing when it comes to FOMC, there will be a lot of volatility and whipsaw action and it's easy to get faked out. If you use VX, you can better determine if the moves are real or not. I'll be looking for setups where VX hits resistance as ES hits support, or where ES hits resistance and VX hits support. I think the ideal scenario and easiest to trade would be if ES could fall down to 5525 quickly as VX spikes into resistance around 16.185. I'd be looking for longs there and quickly stop if ES does break below 5525. If VX can keep going up past 17 and even above the trendline, I'd say look out below. If VX spikes up to the trendline while ES hits support, it may be a good long. And finally, if ES rockets and VX goes all the way down to the 15 area and trendline support, it may be a good spot to short ES/SPY. Trading FOMC is risky and I don't recommend if you do not have experience doing so. Even if you do have experience, it's not the smartest thing to do. I usually use smaller size, but I do like to trade it if the opportunities present themselves.
CBOE:VX1!
by AdvancedPlays
VX Falling WedgesThe volatility crush we have seen lately isn't quite like anything I've seen before. The market is in risk on mode and has been all year. VX is sitting at all time lows at the moment, but has recently broken out above a falling wedge, and then another after that. Each breakout has been short lived and VX tends to always collapse shortly after any rallies in this market. Negative data is shrugged off immediately and any dips are bought. This is the major pattern and until it changes, shorts are not going to work. This is the third wedge in a row which is why I decided to post this idea because I find it interesting. We have a potential catalyst tomorrow as well, but it appears the market is not worried about it and usually that means nothing bad will happen. However, if PCE does come in unexpectedly hot while VX is at all time lows and no one is hedged, it could be catastrophic. I don't have any expectations for now, just waiting to see. VX will be key in determining if any sell offs that occur have legs or not. If it breaks above this wedge and takes out previous highs I'd say look out below. Otherwise, we may just keep rallying all summer long, which is typical for July and August.
CBOE:VX1!
by AdvancedPlays