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NAS100USD: Bearish Opportunities from Fair Value PriceGreetings, Traders! In today’s analysis, NAS100USD is exhibiting strong bearish momentum, confirmed by heavy volatility to the downside. Currently, price is retracing into the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, also known as the equilibrium or fair value. Why Fair Value? The equilibrium is a key zone where institutions favor initiating sell orders. This area is considered optimal as price transitions from discount to fair value, providing smart money an ideal level for market distribution. Aligned with this fair value zone is a Fair Value Gap (FVG), where I will focus on confirmation entries for selling opportunities targeting downside liquidity. Targets First Target: 50% of the entire leg. Second Target: Liquidity pool at the swing low. If you have insights, analysis, or questions, feel free to share them in the comments. Let’s learn and grow together! Happy Trading, The_Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
Nasdaq: A -0.9% Decline Amid Mixed Economic DataNasdaq: A -0.9% Decline Amid Mixed Economic Data The Nasdaq index experienced a slight decline of 0.9% today, reflecting a mix of economic signals, investor sentiment, and broader geopolitical concerns. Key data releases from the US provided a nuanced picture of economic performance, contributing to cautious market behavior. US Economic Data Highlights - **EIA Crude Oil Inventories:** Fell by -1.844M barrels, exceeding the forecast of -1M, reflecting tighter supply conditions. - **US GDP Growth (Q3, Second Estimate):** Steady at 2.8%, unchanged from the previous estimate, highlighting consistent economic expansion. - **Personal Consumption and Spending:** October’s real personal consumption rose by just 0.1% (forecast: 0.2%), while consumer spending grew by 0.4%, meeting expectations but signaling a slowdown compared to revised previous data of 0.6%. - **Durable Goods Orders:** Increased marginally by 0.2%, falling short of the forecast of 0.5%, indicating weaker-than-expected demand for long-term goods. - **PCE Price Index (YoY):** Rose to 2.3%, aligning with forecasts but higher than the previous 2.1%, underscoring mild inflationary pressures. Market Sentiment and Seasonality Despite today’s decline, seasonality is currently favorable for the Nasdaq, as historical trends often support equities during this time of year. Additionally, the **Fear & Greed Index** currently sits at **64 points**, indicating moderate optimism among investors and a "Greed" sentiment, which typically supports risk-on behavior in the markets. Rate Cut Expectations Market participants are closely monitoring monetary policy, with a **70% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut** at the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on **December 18th**. Such a move could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term impact remains uncertain. Geopolitical Risks While the economic picture and market sentiment provide support, ongoing geopolitical risks continue to weigh on investor confidence. The war in Ukraine remains a significant factor in the global risk landscape, with potential implications for energy prices, supply chains, and broader economic stability. Long-Term Trend Intact, but Correction Could Persist The Nasdaq’s long-term upward trend remains intact for now, supported by strong economic fundamentals and favorable seasonality. However, the current correction may take some time to resolve as markets digest mixed data and geopolitical risks. Investors should be prepared for potential short-term volatility while keeping an eye on key macroeconomic developments. Broader Context Today’s data reinforced the view of a steady, albeit moderating, US economy. However, forward-looking risks are rising: - **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast predicts global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with the US slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%. - **US Policy Risks:** Anticipated policy changes under the new administration may elevate inflationary pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets. Implications for Nasdaq The Nasdaq’s modest decline today reflects investor caution as the market digests mixed signals from economic data and weighs the potential for policy shifts. However, supportive seasonality, a "Greed" sentiment on the Fear & Greed Index, and expectations of a December rate cut could help stabilize or even boost the index in the near term. Looking ahead, the interplay between policy developments, global growth dynamics, geopolitical risks, and corporate earnings will remain crucial for the index's direction. What’s your outlook for the Nasdaq? Will the anticipated rate cut and seasonal trends provide a boost, or will geopolitical and economic risks keep the market under pressure? Share your thoughts in the comments!
CAPITALCOM:US100
by InvestMate
1
NAS100USD: Is Bearish Control Taking Over?Greetings Traders! While NAS100USD remains bullish, I see signs of a potential bearish shift for several reasons identified on the chart. Most notably, price has been rejecting a Rejection Block, a significant institutional resistance zone. This rejection has resulted in strong downside displacement, signaling that institutional interest may now lean bearish. Retail vs. Institutional Resistance Institutional Resistance: Price has retraced into heavy premium levels, ideal for selling opportunities (sell in premium, buy in discount). A key difference with institutional resistance lies in its foundation on Rejection Blocks. These order blocks, formed at market turning points, are characterized by large wicks relative to candle closures. They indicate that institutions or smart money entered substantial sell orders, giving confidence to anticipate bearish price action. Retail Resistance: In contrast, retail resistance often serves as engineered liquidity. Here, banks and institutions create the illusion of a resistance zone to entice retail traders into taking trades. These zones, strategically placed at premium levels, enable institutions to sell against retail positions. Understanding this manipulation is critical for aligning with institutional order flow. Trading Plan Confirmation Zone: Monitor price action at the Rejection Block and premium levels for bearish confirmation. Targets: Fair Value: The 50% retracement of the leg. Liquidity Pool: The downside liquidity resting below current levels. Discussion and Insights If you have questions, analysis, or insights, feel free to share them in the comment section. Let’s collaborate, learn, and grow as traders! Kind regards, The_Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
2
NAS100 - The Great Pie In The Sky?20SMA - Blue 200SMA - Pink Key Confluence Areas - Grey Lines Market Structure Support/Resistance - Green/Red Dashed Lines Dear Friends: If you find my analysis helpful, please boost and follow me for future analysis at your service. How I see it: Price still holding below 20967... Anything is possible this time of year. A ton of compressed data releases today, be safe! I deeply appreciate you taking the time to study my analysis and point of view. Keynote! The most important to consider always, before you leap: When you jump in the river, make sure you swim "WITH" the current.
ICMARKETS:USTECShort
by ANROC
NAS100USD Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell! Please, check our technical outlook for NAS100USD. Time Frame: 8h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 20,946.7. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 20,451.1 level soon. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by SignalProvider
1
CHART BREAKDOWN NASDAQ: Key Levels, Targets and Thoughts!Brief Description🖊️: The chart provides insights into critical market levels, emphasizing 1 essential demand zone: low-risk buy zones spanning from 20,873.00 to 20,860.00, respectively, is highlighted. Things I Have Seen👀: Important Demand Zone🟢: Identified between 20,873.00 and 20,860.00 serving as a low-risk buy. Bullish Targets📈: 20,885.00: Possible retracement area. 20,905.00: Possible retracement area. 20,915.00: Possible retracement area. 20,935.00: Possible retracement area. 20,955.00: Significant supply zone. 20,960.00: Liquidity area. What's Important Now❗ Currently, the crucial approach is to wait and observe the price action at this level. We need to assess how the market reacts before considering any decisive moves. Stay observant and responsive to real-time developments in the market.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by T4X_Trading
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 26 Nov 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you! Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST) Economic news - None News - None Directional bias - BUY Morning analysis: Unfortunately I woke up to my positions from yesterday being taken out at entry :( I did take one third partial profit last night a few minutes before closing as I knew it was a risk to leave it open overnight (especially as the D candle was about to close red below the day 0.618 sell fib level) and I wanted some reward for yesterday's trading. M TF - remains bullish and sets the tone of the overall, big picture, market sentiment. W TF - looking at the line chart and imagining this week's candle would be dominated by bears, one can see a potential weekly DT neckline at the yellow highlight. If candles start closing below this point then the market would turn very bearish. D TF - Yesterday the D candle closed red below the D 0.618 sell fib level. This is a bearish signal and bulls will need strength to break this level upwards. 4H - drawing the sell fib from swing hight at B. to swing low at A., it is evident that the 4H 0.50 sell fib level lines up with the pivot point (an area of confluence for a sell) and the 4H 0.618 sell fib level lines up with the D 0.618 sell fib level (super strong area of confluence). Bulls will need incredible strength and momentum to break these levels upwards. Need to watch out. But the 23:00 4H candle closed with a very long wick down to the higher TF's buy fib levels. This indicates that buyers stepped in at these levels. All Lower TF EMA's are below price at time of writing (4H, 1H and 30min) this might provide dynamic support to help boost price upwards. Note - 4H EMA drawn in by me indicated the position of the EMA at some point in the day, now, many hours after, the EMA has moved. If the 4H candle closes at 7am, creating a DB with the neckline broken upwards, I will enter. As the day progressed: The 4H candle that closes at 7am (in my time zone) did indeed close higher than the neckline and break the neckline upwards Entered a buy at the hand icon - Confirmations: 1. Market pattern - DB on 4H TF formed with the neckline broken upwards (indicated by the blue lines). At the same time there was a kind of DB / H&S on the 1H TF. 2. S&R - At time of market pattern formation, the 4H EMA was acting as dynamic support. We also have a strong 4H resistance turned to support area (refer to yesterday's post about keeping 5x 4H candles down) 3. Trend - Buy is in the same direction as the overall trend - as a trend trader I always want to trade with the trend. Get in on a retracement (indicated by fib levels) and then ride the trend. 4. Fib - DB forming right above the 4H 0.618 fib level 5. Candlesticks - 2 x long wick 4H candles wicking down to the D 0.50 fib level, indicating a strong bullish reaction at this level. Candles are also closing above the 4H EMA which shows bullish strength. Mental SL placed at the thick pink line roughly half the height of the 4H DB, but below the 4H EMA for extra protection. I always use mental stops because Nas is so wild and volatile that hard stops will often take you out at a loss. For me, what matters is how candles close. Price ultimately went my way and I closed the majority of my positions at the higher hand icon, when a DT formed on the 5min TF. I left a runner open but price wicked me out at C. Starting to wonder if I would make more money taking profit at 1000 pips daily. Market has been very volatile these past days and perhaps that is why I feel this way, because I know for sure that taking profit at 1000 pips would not be a good strategy when Nas truly starts running / seriously trending. I will start taking detailed notes over the next few months and come back to you on my observations. Catch ya tomorrow! :) Abbreviations: TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support & resistance H&S = head & shoulders EMA = exponential moving average SL = stop loss
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq - This Is Just The Beginning!Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) is preparing a major rally going into 2025: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 As mentioned in all of my previous analysis, the Nasdaq is rallying but despite the recent strong move, there is still a lot more room towards the upside. With the channel breakout happening over the past couple of months, it is quite likely that we will see a rally of +50% during 2025. Levels to watch: $26.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:NDQLong
by basictradingtv
6
NDX : TradingAre you the type to act or react? I am the type who reacts when it comes to trading FX. I prefer to wait for the price to come to me. A moment ago, I shared about DJI. As we can see, stocks are now at a record, perhaps due for a correction. Of course, many think that it can go HIGHER. This is a free world. Anyone can think what they like. Why am I talking about STOCKS all of a sudden? Well, I can SELL and hopefully make some money. Or, what do you think will happen to the $ if there is a sudden fall in STOCKS - EURUSD :-) Good luck to all of us :-)
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by i_am_siew
1
NAS100 4hr LongNAS100 📈 4hr Long 💰ENTRY: 20863.5 👎STOP LOSS: 20704.0 TP TARGETS ⏰TP1 ⏰TP2 ⏰TP3 ✅ 1. Weekly Time Frame: Price has been breaking bullish and trending above the 10, 50, 200 EMAs. ✅ 2. Daily Time Frame: Price has been breaking bullish and trending above the 10, 50, 200 EMAs. ✅ 3. 4hr Time Frame: Price has made a valid correction into the 10 EMA. ✅ 4. Price has made a Swing Low Engulfing candle above the 50ema. This is a great example of my systematic system.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by angelvalentinx