NIO AnalysisPrice played out nicely as my last analysis, giving us a -23.23% move to the downside. However, price failed to mitigate the bullish OB at 7.92. Right now, I'm expecting price to fill the FVG at 10.22 before continuing lower.
NIO trade ideas
Bullish Alert : NIOAfter a drop of 45%, EMAs are testing each other again for the third time.
The previous 2 failed.
Possible reversal here after the bottom at $8.4
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NIO BIG MOVE SOON!Shares of Nio (NIO -2.11%) slumped this week and were trading 17% lower through 11 a.m. ET Friday, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence. Despite a positive opening on the last trading day of the week, Nio stock has now lost more than 40% value since Aug. 1, thanks to this week's extended weakness.
$NIO - $4.60 Price Target with cracked flag, WEEKLY Death Cross I have been posting ever since the weekly flag has been setting up, the stock has finally cracked below the flag. If you have shorted on the crack, kudos to you. Potential downside is to $4.60. Remember the length of the flag pole equals to the potential measured downside which normally equates to about same length of the original bearish flag pole. We also see a bearish death cross on the weekly MACD and the squeeze mod is also curling over in a bearish downturn.
Nio _ Bullist TradeBased on my analysis, it appears that a bullish trend may be on the horizon for this particular asset. If you find the opportunity to monitor its performance, it could be advisable to consider making a purchase when the Relative Strength Index (RSI) value reaches or approaches the 50 level. This strategic approach could potentially align with a favorable market entry point.
Nio to $20And then onwards and upwards.
** Investment opportunity **
On the above 12 day chart price action has corrected since a sell signal printed at $57 back in January 2021. A number of reasons now exist to be long. They include:
1) Price action and RSI resistance breakouts.
2) Price action confirms support on past resistance. Look left.
3) Price action is on the Golden Ratio.
4) No stock splits.
Is it possible price action corrects further? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Type: Investment
Risk: 6-10%
Timeframe: A long position between now and end of October 2023.
Return: 1st target $20. 2nd target, will say elsewhere.
NIO's $7.53 price target after $1 billion debt leads to 17% dropNEWS:
New Debt, New Woes: Nio Raises $1 Billion, Shares Tumble by 17% Amid Financial Struggles
Nio announces plans to raise $1 billion in new debt through the issuance of convertible senior notes, leading to a 17% drop in its share price.
The new debt will consist of $500 million worth of convertible senior notes due in 2029 and another $500 million due in 2030. An overallotment option could increase total new debt to $1.15 billion.
The move comes after Nio reported financial losses of $2.1 billion and a negative free cash flow of $1.6 billion in the previous year.
S&P Global Market Intelligence predicts Nio will not achieve profitability until 2027.
Funds from the new debt issuance will partially be used to pay off existing debt and to strengthen the balance sheet.
The company's strategy doesn't address the core issue of profitability, leading to concerns about future debt offerings and market sell-offs.
CHART ANALYSIS:
NIO's $10.18 support level has held as strong support since August 25, but the recent bearish news has broke this support level.
I have my eyes on $7.53 as a key price level that aligns with the green trend line and lower end of my buy zone. The lower end of the Bollinger Band is currently sitting near this price level as well.
I think there could be a dip or wicks below the green support level for the best buying opportunity there.
$NIO - $4.60 price target on Weekly Bear FLAGI posted on last two charts saying that there looks to be a bear flag setting up. The flag is now setting up nicely on the Weekly Chart and is rock solid intact. The longer it solidifies the flag, the more likely it plays out. Watch for a imminent break, if cracked flag, measured move to the downside is around $4.60 which is also around a past support area.
Nio Weekly Wave countAppears to be a wave 4 out of 5 as per weekly time frame chart, very clear wave count down from Nio's peak. 3 subdivided very cleanly thus we should be looking at a wave 4 up.
ABC/DThis stock is Not to long entry level.
EL needs to be met with a trend in that direction.
Possible stop below C.
Target is D.
Short interest is around 7%.
No recommendation.
NIO AnalysisPrice consolidated since my last analysis. No changes to my expectations, I'm expecting price to take out the buy-side liquidity at 12.41 next before heading lower.
NIO IncI think it's drop is a fourth wave of main diagonal... The target of the fifth wave will depends on the time arrival to the upper limit of the ascending channel
NIO Gann cycle huntingGann cycle hunting continues. more potential turning dates added.
trade safe M~
NIOMID-TERM: Backtesting historical support level with hidden bullish divergence on RSI. (not financial advice)
NIO BUYHi, based on my analysis of NEO stock, there is a good buying opportunity. The stock appears to be in a positive state. The stock returned to a very strong area of strong support at level 10. In which a green candle with a tail was formed, indicating a strong entry of buyers, as well as a retest of the downtrend. The presence of the 200 moving average, which in turn constitutes another support. Good luck everyone
NIO | Consolidation b/w 7.00 - 16.2, a rectangular patternBULLISH INDICATOR (Sep 03)
1. There is some hope shown for trend reversal on June 1st 2023 (Last LL @ 7.00), and a new short series of HH, HL, HH was formed, making new HH @ 16.18.
2. The Heikin Ashi candles are showing bearish momentum is slowing down.
3. ABCD harmonic bullish reversal been spotted.
4. BEARISH TRENDLINE BREAKOUT: A confirmed breakout from the bearish trend line happened on Mar 31st 2023. Now expect the price to go into a CONSOLIDATION ZONE before it will either move in Bullish or bearish directions.
a. The price-action will stay in a Box pattern of CONSOLIDATION between 7.00 - 16.20, and this can last for a couple of weeks.
b. If the price will break UP beyond 16.20, then Bullish trend is expected.
5. On 4 hr chart there is bullish divergence but do not enter until there is a bullish breakout on daily timeframe as mentioned above.
6. Price action has touched 200 EMA line. If Price will stay above 200 EMA and shows an uptrend, and at least one sequence of HL-HH-HL-HH, then bullish trend is expected.
BEARISH INDICATOR (Sep 03)
1. Price Action was making a series of LL-LH-LL-LH, and the bearish trend slowed on June 1st 2023, but so far LH (22.74) of Sep 15, 2022 is not broken.
a. Last LH (16.18) was made on Aug 04, 2023.
b. There was a brief bullish run between June 01 - Aug 04 2023, but then next HL was not formed, and last HL @ 9.49 got broken on Aug 29th, @ 9.46.
c. A HEAD and SHOULDER Pattern has been spotted, which can further push price in bearish direction.
d. Hence Bearish trend continues.
2. There was a bearish trendline, starting from Jan 04, 2021 and a breakout happened on Mar 26th.
a. The Price will stay in a Box pattern in CONSOLIDATION between 7.00 - 16.20, and this can last for a couple of weeks.
b. If the price will break DOWN, below 7.00, then a continued bearish trend is expected.
3. On Fib Levels, price retraced to 61.8% level and then reversed in bearish direction.
4. There is also similarity with Bearish Rectangular Continuation pattern, which can lead to further bearish trend.
5. There was a Bearish divergence between Jun 16th and July 13th.
PREDICTIONS
1. In summary, the bearish and bullish biases are equal.
2. My main assessment is that Price action has entered in a CONSOLIDATION (sideways range) phase between 7.00 - 16.20 and it will stay in this phase for a couple of weeks.
BIAS 1 = LONG - PLAN-A prepare a pending BUY-STOP at 16.79. SL=9.51
BIAS 2 = SHORT - PLAN B, prepare a pending SELL-STOP between 6.82 to 7.00 based on your RR and SL around 13.41.
Bottoming tail on NIOThere is a nice bottoming tail formation on daily chart. This will be a big support for NIO going forward. You can go long with a stop loss just below the bottoming tail.
NIO Bias upside with 3 reason3 Sign of upside
1st Pullback at 38.2FIBO on day chart (well supported)
2nd Supported by 200days MA.
3rd. RSI at near to oversold level
$NIO - BEARISH Flag still intactA bearish flag is setting up for a nice break to downside. short at the break of flag for new leg down. Potential leg down is the length of the flag pole.
NIO - Why Are You Long On Another Shanghai Disaster?So NIO makes electric cars and is a company from Mainland China, which means that by default it's a Chinese Communist Party state-run enterprise because of the realities of Chinese law and living under the CCP's jurisdiction.
Earnings are tomorrow morning and IV on options are juiced to 150% at the money expiring September 1 and 75% expiring January '24.
It might be pretty easy for this company to print a beat considering estimates are only $1.2~ billion compared to the $1.7, $2.5, $1.8, and $1.5 billion in the prior segments.
But as we've seen with earnings on stuff like AMD
AMD - Greed Doth Bad Habits Breed
Target
Target - Why Is Everyone Desperate To Long Disasters?
Snowflake
Snowflake - Is It Time To Stop Gambling On Chop?
and Disney
Disney - Is Your Compass Upside Down?
That a short lived earnings-linked climax has been the optimal moment to enter short and ride the move towards the bottoms.
The problem with companies rooted in Shanghai is that Shanghai is the toad's den, the headquarters of the faction of former Chairman Jiang Zemin, who died, and is solely responsible for the 24-year-long persecution and organ harvesting campaign against Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners.
But even if the company were rooted in Shenzhen, Beijing, or Guangzhou, the problem would be that any company that relies on Mainland Chinese demand to fuel sales, including companies as big as Apple, are in big trouble.
The reason is simple. If you look at Our World In Data and examine how many people died from Coronavirus Disease 2019, the Chinese Communist Party under Xi Jinping claims that 121,563 people have died since the pandemic began.
The United States with less than 1/4th the population has reported over 1.2 million deaths by comparison.
And on top of that, everyone knows how the CCP covered up and lied to the world about the 2003 SARS pandemic.
So let's say for a minute, considering China's population of 1.4 billion compared to America's 355 million people, and that China is the epicentre of the pandemic, that as few as 10 million people actually died.
Now, consider the number of people counting as eligible buyers who have died in China is even higher than this number because of the huge amount of flooding, natural, and manmade disasters that have occurred over the same period of time.
Let's be generous and say that only 15 million people have died.
How does that impact the sales of companies like NIO, Tesla, Apple, and everyone else who has become reliant on the Chinese market?
Perhaps it isn't enough to cause a 2008-style bubble deflation yet, but we're certainly seeing the impact on the balance sheets, aren't we?
And yet people are telling you to get long on NIO.
Technically speaking, the monthly bars show us that since the October dump, every candle, no matter how big the retrace has been, has simply respected the gap created by the dump.
And this is significant because that dump was an astonishing 63 percent in two months.
And at today's prices of $11 this company is still claimed to be worth $15 billion, even while Evergrande has become a penny stock, the Yuan is in huge trouble, and the entire Chinese economy is on the brink of collapse.
Something I have enlightened to in recent times is that reversal patterns are not reversal patterns unless the market has traded to its true bottom.
This was the problem everyone who was trying to long Tesla, Meta, and Amazon all the way down kept running into.
If you buy too early then you have to sit there in drawdown waiting for 25% miracle candles just to break even for a single day.
And so you always have to ask yourself if the market has traded to its true bottom before you decide to donate your retirement funds to the Party longing a retrace.
On the weekly, the breakout to $16 would be bullish, if $7.5 were the bottom
But the problem is that the most meaningful gap on weekly bars was never retraced to after it broke up and it ran away towards $60, and that gap starts at $5.59, almost 50% away from where we traded today.
So is NIO a long? Social media wants you to get long because every dumpster pattern that looks like a disaster is a long, for some reason.
But NIO is not likely to be a long, no matter how nice of a car and how much of a Tesla killer they may arguably make.
But with a $1.2 billion earnings estimate, that's pretty beatable, and so we may see a real retrace tomorrow, however short lived, that could see smart call buyers who exit early or immediately bagging a nice profit.
For everyone else, perhaps it really is worth buying puts at $14 expiring in March of 2024 and closing them off at $5.5
Because NIO is a Shanghai dumpster fire, this thing can go down and down and down and down in accordance with the Hang Seng Tech even if the Nasdaq and the SPX rallies in Q4.
In the meantime, perhaps September will be a bit of an early autumn for the markets, and perhaps for the world-at-large.
Be careful. Shanghai is the "Babylon" spoke of in The Book of Revelations.
Babylon is a city, not a person.
And everyone who put roots there is dirty, perhaps including Tesla and Elon Musk, the man who wants to turn Twitter into the CCP's social credit keystones Wechat/TikTok.
NIO hitting local trend support zone today 🔋we got a much needed pull back after that rejection from cluster resistance 🐻
now at a nice RSI level/trend support zone, risk reward is looking good for longs once again. Bounce here may lead to a rally back to 15-20+🎯
boost and follow for more.. thanks ♥
NIO - are the fundamentals good enough?Analysts have adjusted earnings estimates and thus, an earnings beat does not always translate to good prospects for some of the businesses:
Earnings Estimate Management
From the earnings forecast by Investing above, we can note the following:
The coming EPS forecast (for the period ending 06/2023) is worse than the previous period ending 03/2023.
In fact, the EPS forecast is expected to be the worst at record -2.96 since 06/2022.
For the revenue forecast, it is expected to be lower than the previous quarter. It stands at 9.16B compared to the forecast of 11.93B from the previous quarter ending 03/2023.
This is in fact the lowest revenue forecast since 06/2022.
In the event that NIO beats both EPS & revenue forecast in the coming earnings, is the company doing better? In my opinion, it is a “NO”.
Beating such an estimate is not something to brag about as the company remains unprofitable with “falling” sales. It can be too early to call this a falling trend but the quarterly signs are there.
Conclusion
Before we embrace any content from news agencies or investing portals, let us do our due diligence.
One quarter does not define a trend and thus, looking at the business as a whole from afar can help to put some objectivity and remove the impact of seasonality. This will help to put things in a better context as we even out peaks from new launches and service offerings.
