DXY trade ideas
DXY 1W Forecast until March 2025Consolidation below 106 will last until October 2024.
Breakout will happen in October peaking at 111-112 followed by a retest (mid November 2024 - January 2025).
Further upward movement + correction will happen in January-March 2025 between the top of 113-114 and the bottom of 105-ish.
Consecutive HH and HL will be followed by rapid increase in pace of changes: time will shrink and levels will expand.
This will mark the start of hard times of Greatest Depression in March 2025 sending all markets down and making USD the king.
DXY 1W Forecast until the end of MAY 2025Up-trend will resume and last until the end of February 2025 topping no higher than 114. Current bottom is in at 105.9
Hence, it shouldn't fall below.
After February a consolidation period of 1,5 months will trap price action between the bottom of 122.16 and upper level of 114.9
The spring squeezed during consolidation will provide enough energy for further upwards movement starting in the end of April 2025. This will ignite a chain of devaluation of national currencies followed by epidemic inflation across the globe. This will finish/cool-down at DXY reaching the mark of 148.
New reality after May 2025?
DXY Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring DXY for a buying opportunity around 106.200 zone, DXY is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 106.200 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Short dollar H&SEntering lower high zone and rejection here would confirm the H&S top and allow nice rejection donw
Dollar Index ahead of US Inflation data releaseThe DXY (US Dollar Index) 4-hour chart presents a mix of technical and fundamental insights:
Technical Analysis:
Price Pattern: The chart suggests a breakout from a descending wedge, a potential bullish reversal pattern. However, broader bearish signals loom, as noted by a potential head-and-shoulders neckline that, if breached, could trigger intensified selling.
Key Levels:
Support : Immediate support lies at 105.50, followed by critical levels at 105.00, 104.60, and 104.10.
Resistance: The next significant resistance is at 106.70. A sustained break above this level is needed to confirm bullish momentum.
Fundamental Factors:
Economic Data and Fed Meeting:
Traders are in a wait-and-see mode ahead of key US CPI and PPI reports this week. Core CPI is expected to hold steady at 3.3% YoY, potentially influencing the Fed's rate guidance.
The Federal Reserve meeting on December 19 is pivotal, with a 90% probability of a 25-bps rate cut to 4.25%-4.50% priced in. Market focus will also be on the dot plot guidance for 2025, which could shape expectations for future rate cuts.
Market Sentiment: The current range-bound movement around 106.35 reflects cautious sentiment, with traders balancing between potential bullish technical developments and looming bearish risks from economic data and Fed expectations.
Outlook:
Bullish Scenario: A break and close above 106.70, supported by favorable economic data, could fuel further upside toward 107.00.
Bearish Scenario: A decisive move below 105.50 or the neckline of the bearish pattern could intensify selling pressure, targeting 105.00 and beyond.
Traders should closely monitor upcoming CPI and PPI reports, along with Fed guidance, as they could significantly influence the DXY's direction in the short term.
test 1EUR/JPY maintains its position around 159.50 during Tuesday's Asian session. This upward movement in the EUR/JPY cross is likely due to a weaker Japanese Yen (JPY), driven by uncertain expectations about a potential Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike in December.
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently signaled that the timing for the next rate hike is approaching. Combined with data showing strong underlying inflation in Japan, this has increased speculation of a rate hike at the BoJ's policy meeting on December 18-19.
However, some media reports suggest the BoJ may opt to skip a rate hike this month. Additionally, dovish BoJ board member Toyoaki Nakamura emphasized the need for caution in raising rates, adding further uncertainty and weighing on the Japanese Yen.
dxy daily chartdxy has seen an formidable move all the way back to that upper tl
finding confluence with a S/R level on the left
end of year situation, but on the lower tf's there is a head and shoulders forming
my bias is short $ here if/when it drops below this level to complete the HnS
Dollar Index Bullish to $109! (UPDATE)The DXY is up 600 PIPS (6%) in profit, after rejecting our grey buying zone. We still have much more upside left to go in the COMING MONTHS!
There are many people who are now panicking & trying to sell the Dollar because bullish momentum has slowed down. Bare in mind, this is only a correction for buyers, not a complete reversal. Hold firm & let the market do its thing🦾
DXY - ANALYSISHello friends, I hope you are well
I want to share my view on the dollar index with you
Personally, I expect the dollar to move up and move to the 104.604 area
And from these areas we will move down and the first target I have for the dollar index is 105.168 .
Don't forget that CPI economic data will be released this week.
Trade safe
Market News Report - 08 December 2024The dollar was back to its usual dominance in the past week, concluded by a positive Non-Farm Payroll figure last Friday. The yen also picked up the bullish momentum it began last week. It will probably be a volatile week with the release of four interest rate decisions.
Let's explore whether our latest market news report reveals notable technical and fundamental changes in the major forex pairs.
Market Overview
Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies.
US dollar (USD)
Short-term outlook: weak bearish.
The Fed recently cut the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) from 5.00% to 4.75%, emphasizing that inflation is moving towards the 2% target but is still slightly elevated. Keep an eye on the new inflation rate on Wednesday.
October's labour data was down, mainly due to the impact of US hurricanes and labour disputes with Boeing.
While some mildly positive economic data exists, the bearish bias remains for USD, with short-term interest rate (STIR) market pricing indicating an 88% chance (up from 67%) chance of a 25 bps cut this week. Furthermore, last Friday's NFP print suggested that there is nothing to stop the Fed from cutting rates.
While the Dixie is still quite bullish, it has retraced slightly from the new key resistance at 108.071. Meanwhile, the key support is far away at 100.157, which will remain untouched for some time.
Long-term outlook: bearish.
A noteworthy point about the recent Fed meeting is the removal of the line "the committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2 percent." Finally, Powell also clarified that the US elections won't affect their future decisions.
The big takeaway is that the Fed will see how fast/far they should cut rates. December 6's jobs data indicates that CPI this week will be important and closely watched by markets.
Euro (EUR)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
STIR markets were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate last month. However, they remain data-dependent on what to do in the future (although they are quite concerned about slow growth).
STIR markets have indicated an 87% chance of a rate cut on Thursday (also backed by the ECB's Stournaras). Still, a pullback may be due at some point.
The euro has clearly broken the key support we mentioned previously (1.07774) - the next area of interest is 1.03319. Meanwhile, the key resistance remains far higher at 1.12757.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
The latest rate cut and the avoidance of indicating a clear future move for the December meeting are among the key down-trending factors. However, any improvements in economic data (according to the ECB) would be a turnaround.
The threat of a fresh trade tariff with Trump is hugely influential and may cause the euro to be sold off on tariff fears. Other contributing factors to a pressured euro are bumpy French politics and the prospect of a German snap election.
British pound (GBP)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The Bank of England (BoE) recently cut the bank rate from 5% to 4.75% as anticipated. The language indicates they need to be restrictive and a "gradual approach" to policy easing. Governor Bailey also highlighted that rates will probably be brought down cautiously. Furthermore, he forecasted four rate cuts in 2025, which is a tad bit more dovish than market pricing.
A big miss in the GDP print on Friday, could be enough to send the GBP lower this week. However, inflation data still remains crucial.
Like other dollar pairs, GBP/USD has looked bearish for some time. After breaching the key support at 1.26165, the next area of interest is now 1.22994. Meanwhile, the resistance target is far away at 1.34343.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
The BoE sees inflation (its main concern currently) as being stickier for longer. Bailey wishes to see it down to 2%. This is a moderately hawkish hint. Overall, inflation data (and other economic) data will be important for the British pound. Finally, STIR markets indicate an 89% chance (up from 84%) of a rate hold by the BoE next Thursday.
Japanese yen (JPY)
Short-term outlook: bullish.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently kept the interest rate the same at the end of October. So, our outlook remains largely unchanged. However, a rise in USD/JPY could raise the possibility of the BoJ's intervention.
At the last BoJ interest rate announcement, Ueda stated that hikes would continue if the central bank's projections weren't realised. Last week, he backed up this sentiment by saying that keeping real interest rates too long for too long would lead to higher inflation, which is a hawkish suggestion.
The 139.579 support area is proving quite strong, boosting the yen since mid-September. However, there has been a noticeable retracement amid this move). Still, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about.
Long-term outlook: weak bullish.
The BoJ's tightening stance and inflationary pressures give the yen a bullish sentiment. The central bank wishes to avoid further JPY weakness, with Finance Minister Kato warning against 'excessive FX moves.'
We should also keep an eye on US Treasury yields, as rising yields could derail JPY upside. Conversely, any declines in US yields would likely provide a major boost to the yen.
Australian dollar (AUD)
Short-term outlook: neutral.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently kept its interest rate unchanged, marking the eighth consecutive hold. They emphasised that policy will remain restrictive until inflation moves toward its target. The RBA also lowered its GDP forecasts while the labour market remains tight.
Diarise the upcoming AUD interest rate decision scheduled for Tuesday.
The dollar remains dominant against the Aussie, as AUD/USD is very close to testing the key support at 0.63484. Meanwhile, the key resistance level lies far ahead at 0.69426.
Long-term outlook: weak bullish.
While the RBA suggests that rate hikes won't be necessary going forward, it hasn't ruled anything out. Governor Bullock recently mentioned that they would act if the economy dropped more than desired.
It’s crucial to be data-dependent on the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area. Also, the Australian dollar is procyclical, with particular exposure to China's geopolitics. Trump's recent win in the US election means the prospect of trade tariffs with China has increased (potentially causing headwinds for AUD).
New Zealand dollar (NZD)
Short-term outlook: weak bearish.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its interest by 50 bps to 4.25% as expected last week, the same as in October. It also signalled further reductions for early next week while remaining confident that inflation will remain in the target zone. However, risks of increased inflation volatility and relative price unpredictability remain.
The Kiwi has been on a notable downward spiral, proving the strength of the major resistance level at 0.63790. NZD/USD is close to the key support at 0.57736, reaffirming this bearish market.
Long-term outlook: bearish.
Governor Orr indicated in the last RBNZ meeting that a 50 bps cut in February 2025 is possible. So, we can rule out a rate hike, more so with potential trade tariff issues between China and the United States. These can cause headwinds for NZD and AUD.
Canadian dollar (CAD)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) unsurprisingly delivered a 50 bps cut in October. Further cuts remain on the cards, with the long-term target being 3%. Markets indicate a likelihood of a cut on Wednesday (maybe another 50 bps).
The BoC is signalling victory over inflation due to the cuts, with Governor Macklem suggesting that they would probably cut further until they achieve the optimal low inflation. In their words, 'stick the landing.' Overall, the bias remains bearish - expect strong rallies in CAD to find sellers.
While the short-term fundamental biases of USD and CAD are bearish, CAD is the weakest on the charts. This market is very close to the fresh key resistance at 1.41781. Meanwhile, the key support lies far down at 1.34197.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point, with STIR markets indicating a 68% chance of a 50 bps cut in December. The Bank of Canada has recognised the lower economic growth, and Macklem wishes to see this improve. Furthermore, any big misses in upcoming GBP, inflation, and labour data would send CAD lower.
Still, encouraging oil prices and general economic data improvement would save the Canadian dollar's blushes - the opposite is true.
Swiss franc (CHF)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25 bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) in the Sept. 26 meeting. The Swiss National (SNB) also indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters. STIR pricing indicates a 57% chance of a 50 bps cut on Thursday.
The October CPI was weak at 0.6% (another poor result as it was for September). Finally, the central bank's new Chair (Schlegel) said they "cannot rule out negative rates," further stating that the SNB would be ready to implement this if needed. Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like a worsening Middle East crisis.
USD/CHF keeps rising steadily towards the major resistance level at 0.922444, while the major support level is at 0.83326.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc.
The new chairman is more keen to cut rates than his predecessor, Jordan. The SNB aims for neutral rates between 0 and 0.50% (currently at 1%).
Conclusion
In summary:
The US dollar remains one of the key currencies to watch. However, the Japanese yen is another considerable option due to its recent bullish momentum.
EUR, AUD, CAD and CHF are all the currencies with new upcoming interest rate decisions.
Our short and long-term fundamental outlooks remain largely unchanged from the last few weeks.
As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
Analysing USDX' recent history. Insight into causes of rally.
The chart is a about 2.5 years of weekly pricing of the US Dollar Index USDX.
Simply, illustrating 3 examples of positive divergence for the Dollar and why the $-rally has grown to such an enormous force here at the end of 2024.
My analysis left me wondering about the high to lower-high on RSI which over the same 2.5 years led to a higher high recorded in 2024 (recently), positive RSI divergence, which should correlate to even higher USD Dollar rally's at the start of 2025.
But instead, clearly seen in the RSI chart, the recent withdrawal of the RSI from the USDX from overbought territory in the RSI and retreating back to a level well under 70.
But I see a reversal-swing back into overbought territory on the RSI > 70 causing more momentum back into the Dollar and this increase back into overbought / outperforming would be consistent with the bullish RSI divergence outlined last above, which cals for an even higher USDX.
It would not surprise me to see the USDX climb to 111 during 2025.
Why? How? If you look across at the corresponding historical weekly candle you will find the 7 Nov 22 weekly candle which is a big candle and it closed at 111.
It makes me wonder about Gold's direction. Bullish but capped somewhat until the Dollar finishes its upwards move.
This will also occur in 2025 when the Dollar will eventually retreat as historically evidenced here in the USDX RSI weekly. It shows severe overselling and the resultant bull-rally to the opposite where the dollar outperforms/overbought and eventually has to correct its pricing by becoming less overbought.
All can be seen in the weekly RSI chart.
DXY: Watch the Key Level for the Next Bullish Leg HigherWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** DXY Analysis !
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DXY WEEKLY BIAS Hi there my followers I will not be here without you guys I will always try my best to serve you guys better, here is my bias for the weekly timeframe for DXY, you can use this to check out negatively correlated pairs like EURUSD, all you need to do is to follow up the callouts, pay close attention to details, never forget not to trade against the trend always observe proper risk management and do not overtrade or practice revenge trading. Stay tuned for more updates. I'm here to make your trading journey easier.
Analyzing DXY: Key Clues for USD Pair Trading Opportunities👀👉 In this video, we dive into the DXY index and analyze its bearish break of market structure on the 4-hour chart, highlighting the mounting pressure on the dollar. We discuss the importance of monitoring price action through the London session into the New York open, waiting for potential liquidity runs and pullbacks before the daily or weekly trend emerges. Learn how the DXY provides vital clues for trading correlated and inversely correlated currency pairs, unlocking potential opportunities across the forex market. Don’t miss these key insights to stay ahead in your trading! Not financial advice.📊✅
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DOLLAR (DXY) BULLISHDXY has taken out certain lows on the weekly TF and now it's showing signs of starting a buy program
DXY seems going HIGHER as STRONG ECONOMIC DATATVC:DXY currently traded higher after strong economic data last Friday. NFP data told us that US labor market remain strong. We also can see at Tuesday Job Opening data which showed us "higher than expected - higher than previous month" and finally drives the price up. At the last speech, Powell also said that FED isn't in a rush condition to reduce the interest rate. All of this information gives more optimism to big player in the market to buy dollar.
Technical analysis in the picture tells TVC:DXY failed to make breakout movement below weekly trendline support and seems continue to move to it's last high around 106.75. If this resistance can't hold the price, it will be double bottom chart pattern and could move dollar to it's 22 Nov high around 108.xx
So currently i saw buy opportunity for dollar and sell opportunity in the counter currency of dollar.
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance that has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 105.16
1st Support: 103.68
1st Resistance: 106.96
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DOLLAR DROPPING?This week, I anticipate the DXY to retrace before continuing its recent bearish trend. Since reaching the weekly supply level, the price has consistently formed lower lows and lower highs. This bearish momentum aligns with the bullish trends seen in pairs like GBP/USD and EUR/USD, which I use as additional confluence.
I’ll be watching for the price to retrace to around 106.400, a key area for potential sell opportunities on the dollar. This level aligns well with points of interest (POIs) in my other forex pairs, adding further confidence to this setup.
Note: As we approach the final month of the quarter and year, market conditions may become less predictable due to lower volume. Stay alert, but manage expectations accordingly.
Stay vigilant, and trade safe!
What about DXY?I haven't updated my DXY analysis for a while. So let's dust it off.
The last update was in September when the atmosphere was changing in a way that we couldn't predict the US Election clearly and for a short period, the market thought the results wouldn't be as it is today. That was why I was a bit bearish on DXY. By getting closer to Election Day the clouds were going away and it got easier for the market to see the outcome. So, it strengthened the dollar while weakening the Gold as we expected the geopolitical tensions to cool off.
What's next?
For now, I see the 10-year bond yield can show a bit more weakness to come just below 3.99%. Then after that, we should update our analysis and see what comes next. But I think ~4% is low for now and after that, I like to see a jump back up. In this short-term correction DXY would follow the 10-year bond yield and most probably come into the range of 104 to 105. That's also can be a small driver for Gold to go higher a bit.
Mighty DollarDxy on Friday saw a rejection of 105.40 with jobs report reading of 227k beating October print of -28k closing the week at 105.97 this area is interesting because of a higher low from rally on November 24. looking ahead cpi on Wednesday could provide fresh direction. capturing a move above 106.35 could approach Fibonacci retracement 0.618 at 107.05 and 0.706 Fibonacci at 107.27. Trade at your own risk.
