Watch out for a head & shoulders playing outWith some classic RSI bearish divergence in play, going long now is risky. I am in a short and will be looking for that right shoulder to confirm the bearish bias. Time for the bulls to show up.
MSF trade ideas
MSFT IdeaDon't mind me. Im just bored going through charts. Here's what I'm anticipating for MSFT. I don't really see it playing out this way. I'm very much bearish on this stock short-term
Possible target 277If it does not go below 218, the goal is a short 250. If there is a pullback and goes higher, the head and shoulders will be worked out, there is a goal of 277.
DBL TOP on MSFT? Waaaat! Long Term chart. #MSFT This double top on MSFT screams downside for the Stock Market in August, don't it? July 31st 2023. Levels = From 335 down to 320 316 off 21 SMA. 21 SMA bounce right here??
Call of The Week - MSFT- The stock slid by -1.57% last week after reporting the earnings.
- The RSI negative divergence is released.
- We’re well placed above; $330 support region – the Bollinger bands’ lower band – and the lower boundary of the upward channel.
- Target: $350/$352.
Microsoft Challenges Fib 3.618 levelMicrosoft - NASDAQ:MSFT
Expectations were beat across the board today but what does the long term monthly chart tell us? All is revealed in the chart. This is a key moment for NASDAQ:MSFT and a pull back or break through to established new highs wouldn't surprise. I'm happy to wait for the confirmations outlined in the chart. That MACD cross though looks appealing.
Earnings Summary
- Profits jumped 20% to 20.1 b
- EPS: $2.69 / Exp $2.56
- Revenue: $56.19B / Exp $55.49B
- Azure (cloud) revenue up 26% / Exp 27%
Msft gap closeBounced off lower channel late last week after earnings sell off.
Minor time frame you can see the Inverted H&S that form friday, breakout over 342.50 with a 350 target .
You really don't want to see a break down back below 337 but if you bought some time I'd be comfortable with a 335 stop loss or 50sma.
So ...
Long over 338
1st target will be tough to break at 342 because of the prior price action and 20-21 MA/EMA. But once it gets over that
2nd target - 350
MSFT WAVE 5 of 5 has started target 381/383The chart posted is that of MSFT we have now formed a nice ABC decline after hitting the top of the weekly BB bands . we now very over sold and I have moved back into CALLS in msft today at the open . LOOK for msft to rally to 381/383 this should now most likely bring the sp to 4631/4658 and the QQQ to 388/393 I tend to lead toward 391.3
Microsoft 280USD first targetIt goes up to the price of 350USD and starts to fall to 280USD .
be careful
Consensus Trading Model, What to do with MSFTYou can use different trading models and strategies and give them a score, and then use the summation score as a trading model.
Let's do this for NASDAQ:MSFT and compare 10 different models and give a score of +1 score for bullish, 0 for neutral, and -1 for bearish.
Elliott wave: -1
Wyckoff:0
Mean version:0
Regression Channel:-1
Random Walk Index:-1
Price Action to Support and resistance line:-1
Weekly chart:-1
Alligator Method:0
Super trend:1
Money Flow Index:-1
Piotroski F Score:0
Total score: -5
Conclusion: Microsoft is more likely to experience more decline!
Microsoft - Is The Top Already In?One of the key points to Microsoft is it is, in essence, a U.S. state-backed corporation, and one that is trading at more than $2.5 trillion market cap at present.
You're looking at a company that just set a new all time high while the overall market is not healthy and the macroeconomic fundamentals are actually bearish.
And so, we have to seriously ask ourselves if it's time to short God the top.
Microsoft's price action on the monthly is curious.
The price action is healthy and natural all the way from where it bounces to the top, and only becomes curiously strange when it gets to the top.
Why does a stock that bounces at the right place and forms a fully proper reversal pattern, which we see on the weekly:
Only sweep the All Time High?
Why doesn't it raid the ATH and run bigly larger like NVDIA did?
Well, the answer is actually quite clear when you overlay NVDA to MSFT:
In essence, NVDA at $480-450 is MSFT at $350. The difference in price action you see today is because NVDA was relatively weaker in the past, meaning MSFT was inordinately strong in the past.
Anything that reaches an extreme will reverse. If it reaches the extreme twice, it will reverse hard twice.
The geopolitical situation in the world is not healthy. There is a ton of sabre rattling between NATO and the Nation of China at the moment.
The western propaganda machine wants you to believe that Xi Jinping intends to invade Taiwan because he's very evil very super Mao Zedong++, but in reality it's more like the "International Rules Based Order" wants to use the fact that the Chinese Communist Party is rotten and unforgivable as a handle to depose Xi and have Taiwan invade the Mainland under the guise of international "aide".
Why this matters to you as a trader is because you're flirting with getting gapped down hard since Beijing daytime is New York night time.
If you want to be long right now you need to be hedged long volatility, or you're risking your life.
Moreover, Xi, in order to defend himself, his faction of Chinese nationalists, and China's 5,000 year history, can overthrow the CCP in a Gorbachev-style coup overnight, weaponizing the 24-year-long persecution and genocide of Falun Dafa by the faction belonging to former Chairman Jiang Zemin (it died this year).
The significance is major to traders because your beloved governments, banks, and corporations have stained their hands crimson flirting with the Jiang faction toadies in Shanghai (Babylon) in order to get all the benefits they desire.
Google the Neil Heywood story if you want to see a classic example of a British billionaire getting gibbed by the greatest evil of all time.
Much to do before the call's key points.
Before we continue, I examine the price action I expect to manifest in SPY (SPX Futures ETF) for the remainder of the month, which can serve as something of a compass for what lies ahead:
SPY - A Dip Is Coming. Maybe Buy It?
Back to MSFT:
This is a very hard setup to trade
Because the June high may have been a hard top, double and triple top or not (See TSLA July-September '22)
Lower lows lower highs indicates the dip is hard to buy
But the short may only take us to the $320 range.
Sweeping $300 is the key to a bullish continuation above the highs
Maintaining ~$280 is the key to continuing upwards at all.
Microsoft has a really notable catalyst in that its earnings are on July 25 postmarket, which means price action will manifest the morning of July 26, which just so happens to be when the next FOMC meeting is.
After July FOMC the next FOMC is deferred until September 20, 9 days short of quarter end, notable because of the notorious JPM Collar, which I discuss here:
SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar'
What I expect is we see a fairly violent correction on Microsoft back to the $300s before we can see any kind of further meaningful flirtation with a run over the $350 ATH.
But the June high may have been the top for the foreseeable future, as evidenced by the relationship between NVDA and MSFT.
Be careful. The time we have left for happy and normal days is so short you can almost count it on the fingers.
When things really emerge, Nasdaq 8,500 will be the least of your concerns, really.
Microsoft (MSFT) Looking for Zigzag PullbackRally in Microsoft (ticker: MSFT) from the 11.4.2022 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 11.4.2022 low, wave ((1)) ended at 263.92 and pullback in wave ((2)) ended at 219.35. The stock rallies again in wave ((3)) which ended at 366.82 as the 30 minutes chart below shows. Wave ((4)) pullback is currently in progress as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((3)), wave 1 ended at 352.01 and rally in wave 2 ended at 357.97. The stock resumes lower in wave 3 towards 345.37 and wave 4 ended at 350.56. Final leg wave 5 ended at 339.83 which completed wave (A).
Rally in wave (B) ended at 354.9 with internal subdivision as an expanded flat. Up from wave (A), wave ((a)) ended at 349.9, wave ((b)) ended at 345.07, and wave ((c)) ended at 351.89. This completed wave A of (B) in higher degree. Pullback in wave B ended at 338.56 and rally in wave C ended at 354.90 which completed wave (B). The stock now has resumed lower in wave (C). Down from wave (B), wave 1 ended at 333.11. Wave 2 rally is in progress as a zigzag to correct the decline from wave (B). Expect wave 2 rally to fail below wave (B) high at 354.9 and the stock to reesume lower. As far as pivot at 366.82 high stays intact, rally should fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
Bump in a bullish trendNASDAQ:MSFT is down 4% today after a beat on top & bottom line. Fell right into the trend line range and I think we move back up from here.
Not financial advice, good luck to all :)
How To Add Drawings To Your ChartIn this Tradingview basics video I'm going to show you how to add drawings to your chart using the options available on the left-side rail.
We'll look at not only what the options are, but the benefits of using "stay in drawing mode" as well as how labeling specific tools as "favorites" can save you time when marking up the charts.
If you have any question, comments, or subjects for future "Tradingview Basics" videos please leave them below.
Until next time, "Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan"
Akil
MSFT AnalysisPrice played out nicely as analyzed last week, giving us a 3.17% move to the downside after the earnings. I'm expecting price to fill the fair value gap at 334.27 next before deciding to go higher.
Msft Gapping down on earnings..
Head and shoulder setup here on the hourly
Has gaps at 337 and 332 to close.
50 sma and fib support around 330..
The setup is to short to 330-332 then long back to 340
Fib levels - All time high 366.78
Sept 2022 low - 213.43
MSFT: Bearish Crab with Double MACD Bearish DivergenceMicrosoft has traded up to a 1.618 Fibonacci Extension and has formed a Bearish Crab with Double MACD Bearish Divergence, so long as $350 holds as resistance, I think it could go as low as about $295 to fill the gap below.
In the meantime, I have sold $350 multi-week calls.
$371 target after earnings on MSFTPer dowsing, I get that there will be a new high and up $21 from where it is now = $371
It may not be up that high in the morning though, so if in options, beware.
MICROSOFT Huge MACD Bearish Cross ahead of earnings. Still buy?Microsoft (MSFT) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the March 13 Low, with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) supporting all the way, having made no contact with the price at all. You can see that on the chart on the right (1D time-frame).
On the bigger picture, the 1W time-frame (chart on the left), the stock closed last week's 1W candle on a very discouraging Bearish Pin Bar, which is a candle formed on technical trend reversals from bullish to bearish. In addition the 1W RSI remains overbought above 70.00, despite dropping from the even higher levels of May 30.
Perhaps the strongest alarming indicator at the moment showing that the market may have hit a temporary top is the emerging Bearish Cross on the 1W MACD. Since 2020, we have seen that formation another 7 times, with 6 of them delivering a Lower Low. As a result when the 1W MACD Bearish Cross is completed, it will be more probable to see a correction, not necessarily an earth shuttering one.
But back to the 1D time-frame (chart on the right) if that happens, we will wait for a candle close below the 1D MA50 and sell, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on a projected contact at $300. Until this happens though, the Channel Up is on full effect and we are targeting the Internal Higher Highs trend-line at $380.
In the meantime, observe the 1D RSI, which is trading inside a Rectangle for the past 6 months and has offered accurate buy signals at its bottom and sell signals at its top.
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Microsoft Earnings tonight - we expect a pullback As earnings expectations are negative we expect some pullback from the highs of the chart this week. we are well prepared to take this trade at 336.5$
Here are the full trade details :
MSFT EARNINGS TRADE :
Waiting on a pullback tonight
Entry at 336.5 (may have a draw down to 333.5)
Take Profit 366 - previous Highest high - left us a big wick on the upside - thats our target
Stop Loss 329 - below previous lower low
366-336 = 30$ profit per share
336-329 = -7$ loss per share
1 lot =100 shares
1 lot at 1:20 leverage = (336.5*100)/20=1682.5
Profit calculation: 30*100 = 3000$
Loss calculation: 7*100 = 700$
R/R : 700/3000 = 1 : 4+
ROI : 1682.5 / 3000 = 1.78 return
This is not a trading advice. this is not a financial advice. trading is a high risk instrument please only trade with money you can afford to lose!
$MSFT #Microsoft Earning PlayNASDAQ:MSFT #Microsoft Earning Play if you have been long NASDAQ:MSFT like we have it is prudent to take profits or if you are in the business of shorting stocks this is an excellent shorting opportunity. Know your target before you make the trade. There is a Double Top where you can stop out if it closes above the double top on a weekly basis.
$MSFT EARNINGS Analysis, Key Levels & TargetsNASDAQ:MSFT Analysis, Key Levels & Targets
Implied move for earnings today is between 324 & 367 (6% move) - so where are you setting your sell orders, lol...
There is a lot of downside that needs to be tested to be solidified for a move higher to be justified…
I have no open positions in NASDAQ:MSFT but tracking for SPY & SPX and of course I always may take one if I see a great setup… right now we are equally between the nearest support and resistance levels…
MICROSOFT'S Fiscal 2023 Q4 Results: Assessing Growth and....Microsoft's Fiscal 2023 Q4 Results: Assessing Growth and Profitability
Investors are eagerly anticipating Microsoft's fiscal 2023 fourth-quarter results, set to be unveiled on July 25. The upcoming report holds significance as it is expected to include the company's outlook for fiscal year 2024, making it a crucial event for evaluating Microsoft's growth opportunities, profitability, and cash demand trends.
When considering Microsoft as an investment, three key factors set it apart from others.
Diverse Business:
Microsoft's strength lies in its diverse business offerings. Unlike companies that focus on specific industries or technologies, Microsoft provides exposure to various growth niches, including enterprise cloud services, AI, productivity software, and more. Owning Microsoft allows investors to capitalize on multiple expansion opportunities under one brand, thereby reducing the risks associated with heavy reliance on a single sector.
High Profitability:
Despite some fluctuations in financial metrics since the peak of the pandemic in 2021 and early 2022, Microsoft remains one of the most efficient generators of cash and profits in the market. In the last quarter, the company achieved an impressive 15% year-over-year increase in operating income, resulting in $22.4 billion in profit on $53 billion in sales. This high level of profitability reinforces Microsoft's position as a robust and stable investment option.
As the report is released, investors should focus on these essential growth indicators and look beyond short-term sales volatility to assess Microsoft's long-term potential. The company's diverse business and strong profitability make it an attractive investment opportunity for those seeking stability and growth in their portfolio.
Pricey Stock:
In terms of valuation, Microsoft is considered a pricey stock, with investors having to pay a premium for its valuable assets. Presently, Microsoft stock is valued at over 12 times its annual sales, comparable to the faster-growing Palo Alto Networks. However, in comparison, Apple offers a relatively better bargain with a valuation of 8 times its sales, while Amazon is even cheaper at less than 3 times its sales.
While there is a possibility that Microsoft's valuation may decrease in the coming quarters, particularly if the company reports disappointing sales results in late July or forecasts challenges in the upcoming operational year, the more likely scenario is that the business will continue to gain market share in various significant global tech industries. Additionally, any cyclical downturn in its operating system segment or consumer tech devices division is expected to be short-lived.
Considering Microsoft's bright long-term outlook, industry-leading profit margins, ample cash flow, and rising dividend payments, it emerges as an incredibly attractive stock to consider adding to your portfolio. For tech stock investors who prefer a less risky approach in a fast-moving industry, Microsoft provides an excellent opportunity to gain exposure to major trends while investing in one of the most valuable companies in the world.
