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XOM trade ideas

ForecastNotes: Anticipating an earnings surprise. About XOM: "Exxon Mobil Corp. engages in the exploration, development, and distribution of oil, gas, and petroleum products. It operates through the following segments: Upstream, Downstream and Chemical. The Upstream segment produces crude oil and natural gas. The Downstream segment manufactures and trades petroleum products. The Chemical segment offers petrochemicals. The company was founded by John D. Rockefeller in 1882 and is headquartered in Irving, TX."
NYSE:XOMLong
by UnknownUnicorn28743597
XOM: The only stock worth swinging in 2022? Hey swingers ;), I am not going to lie. This market has been tough for swing traders and stressful for intraday traders to say the least. The big names like SPY and DIA have been really dramatically bipolar. There is a diamond in the rough though and IMO that is XOM. As expected, XOM managed to breakout yesterday and today from its 2019 supply zone (see my previous ideas on XOM). Now we are heading to another supply zone from April 2019. Will we bounce off it? Maybe. My concerns about XOM are: 1. The RSI is quite overbought on the Daily Chart and on the 1 hour chart 2. XOM has been aggressively bullish in a bear market. It has surpassed my modelled projected highs, even when I adjust the model to review only the most recent data. (For example, today, my projected high based on 1.5 years of data was 78.39, this is where I was aiming to take profits, my adjusted high based on approx 1.5 months of data was 79, it surpassed both of them and doesn't show signs of slowing. While this is generally a good thing in my books, if I aim for the highs, knowing that it will likely outperform, that's a good thing, right? Not really, because it means that the model is close to being rejected and that signified a change in sentiment. The sentiment seems to be in the bullish direction, but I really hate when sentiment changes and I have to rework another model with backtesting, etc. and generally leads me to holding off trading for a week until I have enough data to correct and test). So what's next for XOM? If you're not in a position with XOM (an intraday position or swing position), I would suggest waiting to see how XOM treats this new supply zone. It is not unreasonable to anticipate a bounce off it, back down to the previous supply zone. I would long biased though. Its extremely bullish for the past 3 months and to go short is just fighting a well accepted trend and I don't advise. The outlook for XOM on linear regression analysis is positive, both in the short term and long term, on both the 1.5 years of data and the 1.5 months of data. To put it in perspective, my models of SPY and IWM are negative short term and positive long term on the 1.5 year, negative short term, negative long term on the adjusted data (long term means within the next 1-2 months). XOM is the only stock that I actively track with a positive outlook across the board and has most consistency. My plan: I want to see retracement back to my take profit zone or the July supply zone and re-enter long. Calls for patience :). DISCLAIMER: Not financial advice. Not a financial advisor. Just an ex-epidemiologist who enjoys mathematical modeling. At the end of the day, I trade price action. I use regression analysis to plan my entries and exits and chart support and resistance levels (I find it more accurate than looking at the chart). However, its not always correct and I am sometimes wrong. Manage your risk! Its okay to be wrong, and you will be wrong, just manage your risk and you will live to see another day. Its not the end of the world :). My linear regression models are done in SPSS. I can't share pictures, but am happy to answer your questions.
NYSE:XOMLong
by Steversteves
1
Will XOM Break out? XOM made for a predictable Short play today. XOM Retested that 2019 supply zone and was again rejected. It respected support at around 74 looks to be heading back up to re-test 2019 again. The two potential outcomes I see based on the chart are: 1. Retest of 2019 resistance followed by bounce back to that 74 support, followed by a bounce back up and potentially beyond (shown in teal colour). 2. Retest of 2019 resistance followed back potential bounce back to that 8 year support line (purple). Of course there are also other outcomes, however I am leaning to one of the previous two options. Linear Regression modelling shows the following (Based on January data): Potential Highs tomorrow: 76.22 (SD=3.4). Probability of reaching a high of /= 76.22 is 8%. Potential Lows Tomorrow: 74.50 (SD=3.3) Probability of reaching a low of /= 74.50 is 7%. (Meaning the probability that the stock remains above 74.50 tomorrow nd doesn't go lower is 7%). What I am watching for: Bounce of 74.37 to the upset for a long play. Rejection of 76 for a short play (Was my play today). DISCLAIMER: Not financial advice.
NYSE:XOM
by Steversteves
XOM Exxon Mobil Net-Zero Greenhouse Gas Emission | Price TargetsToday i have 2 relevant price targets for your from the most prestigious analysts: The Goldman Sachs Group prediction is $83 for XOM, which is most likely (to hit the resistance level) and Bank of America which has an optimistic price target of $95. The price targets are plausible, since there is a possible disruption to European energy supplies because of Russia - Ukraine border crisis. and Crude oil prices will likely stay at the 7 year high since OPEC+ will keep the existing policy of gradual increase of production. XOM will spend $3bn in the next five years on a new low-carbon business unit. They also bought a 49.9% stake in Norwegian biofuels company Biojet AS to achieve its target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Exxon Goal for 2050 is Net-Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Exxon Mobil haven`t cut the dividends, like other companies, even though in 2020 they had negative earnings, -22.44Bil. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NYSE:XOMLong
by TopgOptions
2
$XOM bullish break above long 7.5 year trendline on monthly$XOM bullish break above long 7.5 year trendline And on the weekly looking like a golden cross (w/ my 35 & 180EMA’s which are quite reliable) No trade plan right now, just an observation… I sold at 70.83 on the last swing but will add this one to my radar of things that could stay bullish. Energy stocks $XLE (SPDR Energy Sector ETF will be on my list as well) Definitely a bullish move and I’ll be looking on the smaller timeframes for a possible entry… Though, also noting, that in the last financial crisis XOM did decline as well, so that trendline will be watched carefully… —————— I am not your financial advisor, but I will happily answer questions and analyze to the best of my ability but ultimately the risk is on you. Check out my ideas, but also do your own due diligence. I am not a bull. I am not a bear. I just see what I see in the charts and I don’t pay too much attention to the noise in the news. If you want me to analyze any stock or ETF just leave me a comment and I’ll do it if I can. (If I have time) Have fun, y’all!! (\_/) ( •_•) / >🚀
NYSE:XOMLong
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
5
XOM testing 2019 supply zone XOM has really been quite the little champ. It, as long as other oil stocks, have been able to maintain bullish momentum despite the massive crash happening in practically all other sectors. It has broke through his 8 year down trend resistance and has managed to hold this area, even through this selling off of SPX and Dow. I definitely regret selling my long term holdings of XOM because it really would have hedged the pain we are all feeling from this sell off. Today was really interesting, I have been watching XOM approach a historic supply zone from 2019. It tested the area and was rejected back down. It maintains a bullish appearance on Hekin Ashi despite having a slow but sustained sell off today. RSI is quite overbought however on the daily. I anticipate this bounce off of the previous supply zone/resistance area will lead to a retest of that 8 year downtrend resistance (which is now support) and possibly a bounce back up through that supply zone. This would stabilize the overbought RSI and make XOM appear more stable in a market with heavy selling in other sectors. I think this would make it more appealing for investors and traders to jump in long and bring it back through that supply zone. Linear regression analysis reveals potentials highs of 76 - 78 in the coming week (if we are to maintain this bullish trend) and potential lows of 72 (lower confidence levels). However, for how XOM is trading currently, my focus is on how it treats that 8 year downtrend line and whether it respects it and bounces, and not so much on LR forecasting. DISCLAIMER: These are my thoughts and observations. Not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor or know anything about finance ;). Best of luck!
NYSE:XOM
by Steversteves
EXXON Mobil is putting a smile on our faces. XOMConfirm on Wave C, we are going up. Markets cannot be timed, but we estimate this is a more or less longterm prediction. We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in green with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe!
NYSE:XOMLong
by Rykin_Capital
1
Buy when there's DRY blood in the StreetsBuy When There's Blood in the Street ... After the recent well known events in the financial market and the crypto market I recalled a quote by Baron Rothschild: "Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own." I would say this is very true; however, in the world of trading "Timing is Everything", don't just go blindly with the old saying, this is like the other saying "Catching a Falling Knife". Bottom line, we all have to stomach the ups and downs in the market, this is not for the faint at heart. The downturns are really good opportunities to buy cheap if you pay attention to the Market Structure, trust your indicators, and are disciplined with the money management policies. "Buy when there's blood in the Street ..." I would just wait until the blood is not fresh. It is not about catching the bottom, it is about buying at a discount, which is not the same. I personally use three main variables to time my entry and my exit, (1) Trend, (2) Momentum and (3) Volume. You don't really need more, although each trader has developed his/her own style, I show mine here. I sometimes use more indicators, but basically they measure the same variables from a customized perspective. For the sake of clarity, in this example I use regular popular and publicly available indicators, I use the simple Volume, the RSI, the MACD and the Madrid Ribbons. 1. Trend. "The trend is your friend until that freaking bend at the end". When we see the price structure we determine as simple as it is if there is an uptrend, downtrend, or trading range, the Madrid Ribbons is a very friendly indicator that visualize the direction of the trend at a glance, as long as it is in the green it means uptrend, if this turns from green to red it signals the end of a leg or a reversal of the trend. In this example there's a visible downtrend coming from 2019 when the Energy sector started its decline and a full working economy didn't need as much oil as when it needed a jumpstart. We can see from December 2018 until April 2019 there was a leg to the upside, this didn't last long, on May 2019 it didn't remain above the trendline for long and it kept on slowly bleeding until on January 2020 it collapsed and it broke down. The red ribbons continued until November 2020, when it visually showed a reversal. As simple as that. Follow the trend. 2. Momentum. In this article I use two momentum indicators, the popular RSI and MACD. There are tons of momentum indicators out there, I have coded myself several customized momentum indicators. The idea behind momentum is that momentum precedes the trend. Watch out, it is not "predicting", usually this tells that the direction of the trend is exhausting and it could possibly reverse. We must pay attention if the direction of the momentum is the same of the trend, and if it isn't then raise a momentum divergence flag. This is good to time the entries and exits. a) RSI. Let's look at the RSI on December 2018, it went from Oversold to reach Overbought levels on February 2019, this trip out from oversold signals a trend reversal, entering the trade on January 2nd, 2019 it would have been a great entry. The blood of the downtrend can weight in, trust the indicator and ride the leg. The RSI signals an exit on March 15th, 2019, with a juicy 15% in the leg, not risking to remain longer and not risking a falling knife in the downtrend. b) MACD. This indicator is on the negative side, which means there is a negative momentum going on. We're in a downtrend, remember?; however, it performs a crossover with the signal, which can be seen in the histogram, making it positive. We have a downtrend plus a positive momentum divergence. At the time the price crosses the trend we have a positive trend plus a positive momentum convergence, the Bulls are in control. this signals another entry. Riding the leg from the histogram crossover until the MACD histogram crosses down the Zero line gives us the same performance as the RSI on the same period. Look at the signal from MACD, the trend is still up, but the histogram is already negative, this signals a negative momentum divergence, it would be the time to take the money and run, preventing the main downtrend could continue. 3. Volume. Usually the volume is displayed in contrasting colors, green when the price bar goes up, red when it goes down. It's tricky, in order for the volume to exist there must be two sides, a buying and a selling side. I see it as volume is volume, and it denotes the interest of the market at a certain price level, I'm not too worried if it's red or green, I'm focused on whether there is high or low transactional activity. As you can see on December 21st, 2018 there was a volume peak that was increasing from the 13th and after the 18th it slowed down. There could have been a lot of sellers willing to take the exit when the prices declined, however there were not buyers to take their "garbage" and all of a sudden there are buyers at the lowest level willing to enter the trade on its way down, like kamikaze traders. The relative volume means those were not retail traders, but institutional traders who can get liquidity following the simple rule "buy on weakness, sell on strength". Another volume pattern is "Volume precedes momentum", a higher relative volume is needed to reverse a trend. So far we have this pattern, a downtrend with a low climatic volume, it's a No Go, it is still bleeding a lot. We wait until the relative volume increases meaningfully and the next sequence in the process is an exit from Oversold on the RSI or a Zero cross over to the positive side in the MACD histogram, next in the sequence is a trend reversal. Last but not least, money management, setup the entry - target - stop/trailing stop levels and ride the leg. Let's take a look at the second example, we still see the trend goes down. There are still some recover legs, that fail to break the trend to the upside, we see also the relative volume is low, so here the institutions are not committed and they patiently let the retail traders to consume themselves until the bid side dries up and the ask side has to settle for lower prices. Watch the period between January 2020 and the end of February 2020, the prices are in free fall, but the volume didn't react immediately, until the last part of February and early March, there was a peak that momentarily stopped the free fall and created a weak support, this was broken again, the number of sellers still overwhelm the buyers, and the climatic volume increases. This is the period when the institutional bulls are stepping in and they're buying the "garbage" that creates the kind of panic liquidity the institutions are looking for. At this time also the Bears are switching hats, they're closing their short positions and taking profits. Once the selling volume dries up, which can be seen when the relative volume slows down. This is the point when the bleeding in the market stops and we look for the signals in the Momentum indicators, we see at the end of March 2020 the RSI indicator escaped the Oversold area and the MACD histogram made a crossover the Zero line, in a very strong histogram. Both indicators flash a strong buy. This is the dry blood we're looking for. Emotionally it takes a toll, we just came from a strong downtrend and the fear that this it's not over yet is there. The fear that the heal is temporary and we're just stepping on a weak support is there. If we set the emotions aside and we trust the indicators and a good set of rules of disciplined money management, we can exploit the opportunities of a downturn. _____________________________________ “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” ~Sir John Templeton
NYSE:XOMEducation
by Madrid
11
XOM looks peaked already when adjusted for dividendsSince 2014 the market has been selling off XOM whenever it reaches above $70 when adjusted for dividends, this has happened six times already. Could it happen again in the next few weeks? Some more bearish reasons for a sell off: -Chart shows a breakout of a bearish wedge which can turn out to be a blow off top. -Every bag holder of XOM since before the covid crash can now cash out at break even. -You can see on the daily chart that it usually sells off here just before earnings and the div date hit. -With Electric Vehicles becoming hotter and hotter, it doesn't make sense that XOM would be as valuable as it was in 2014 and their down trending revenue since then show this: www.macrotrends.net -Wall street has been pumping this stock and other value stocks harder than XOM can pump oil. -Related UCO also looks almost topped to me, see this chart: If I wanted in XOM, I would at least wait until it falls back down to $60, where under normal market conditions has had strong support. One bullish possibility is a trend change. I would only consider the trend has changed if XOM holds above $70 for a few weeks as the moving averages catch up though. My opinion is this whole movement is over extended and to be very careful! I don't like seeing us retail getting scammed by wall street.
NYSE:XOMShort
by Lynxys
2
Major Intersection of trends for XOMXOM has a multi year resistance line that it quickly has been approaching. This resistance line depicted in red has held strong since 2014 and Exxon has attempted to break above this resistance line several times since and has failed each time. What makes this retest different? Momentum and demand makes this retest different, In fact the move on the MACD has been extreme and much stronger than previous momentum swings depicted on XOM's MACD. This coupled with a red hot crude/commodities market tells me that this time will be different when XOM grinds up closer to the multi-year resistance trend line I expect a bullish breakout and a price target of 77, and then a move up to 87.55 within a few years.
NYSE:XOMLong
by Gooby_Trades