Spy SHORT I beginI just took a small starter short position, but will get more short if the alert line is traversed. Control risk, this is a up trend, i am 100% taking first real signal. even if weak.
SPY trade ideas
SPY breaks another upward trendSPY has broken two upward trends in this recent rally giving less momentum each time it breaks
Ended old upward rally on Sept 23, going into new rally with reduced momentum
The latest rally has now been broken again
MACD very close to going into a bearish sell off
RSI breaks below the 50 line
We may expect SPY to trade flat for a little bit of time in the distribution phase of its rally cycle, before the bears take hold.
Megaphone - BearishSPY weekly looking interesting heading into the week. Staying hedged with the SPY holding another megaphone. The SPY is being carried by buyer volume with some hidden bearish divergence on the RSI and nearing overbought territory yet again.
With so many sectors and indexes flashing red and a massive bearish cipher on the weekly timeframe as further confirmation, looking forward to playing the downside.
Some FIB levels and RSI-based supply and demand zones to keep an eye on in the meantime (Accompanying Charts Attached Below)
S&P sets new high but weakness is mountingLast week, the market traded within a narrow range, yet still managed to reach new highs. The bulls remain in control of both the daily and weekly timeframes, although I’m not entirely comfortable with the structure that has developed over the past five days. Most of the growth occurred during extended hours, while during regular trading hours, the market either remained in a tight range or moved downward. This structure is fragile and could easily break, though I’m not ready to call for shorts just yet.
Firstly, it hasn’t broken. We're still in a bullish wave on the daily timeframe — in the past two weeks, none of the days have closed below the previous day's low. Secondly, even if the structure breaks, we should not expect significant follow-through, as the market remains very bullish.
Here's a quick recap of the key points supporting the bullish thesis (you can find the rest in my previous review):
1. The Fed cut interest rates by 0.5 percentage points, which is positive for both the economy and the stock market for several reasons, such as cheaper borrowing costs.
2. The SPX has reached a new all-time high, which is highly bullish.
3. Both the weekly and daily charts show a strong uptrend.
For the market to reverse, there would need to be a significant shift in sentiment, likely triggered by some fundamental event. From a technical standpoint, the uptrend remains intact as long as the bulls hold the previous major low ( 538 ). Until then, any "red" waves should be viewed as mere pullbacks within the broader upward movement.
Revert to the 1990s trend line?To share this idea, I believe a potential market top could be a reversion to the 1990s trend line. This would encompass previous downturns like the 2000 dot-com bubble, the 2007-2008 financial crisis, the 2010 Flash Crash, and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic crash. Wishing everyone success in trading and investing. 💪😀
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SPY for TA Tomorrow 9/30. 1. Price Action Overview:
Current Trend: The price appears to be in a downward movement after breaking a rising trendline. There is a consolidation phase near the lower end of today's range, which suggests indecision or a potential bounce near support.
Volume Profile: The high concentration of volume is around the price levels between 570-572. This indicates that this area has been significant for both buyers and sellers and could act as a pivot zone.
2. Key Levels:
Support:
570.42: Strong near-term support, highlighted by the red horizontal line. A breakdown below this level could lead to further downside pressure.
569.89: The lower end of this support zone. A break here could open the door for a test of the 560.79 level, which is another key support based on volume profile and recent lows.
560.79: This represents a significant lower support level. If the market becomes extremely bearish, this level may be tested.
Resistance:
571.32: Immediate resistance, shown as a red line on the chart. The price has previously rejected this area, so a break and hold above could show bullish momentum.
574.21 - 575.01: This is a notable resistance zone (highlighted in blue). If the price manages to break through 571.32 and rally, this area could provide strong resistance, as it coincides with prior highs and a volume shelf.
575.50+: Beyond this level, SPY would likely experience some resistance due to prior highs from the 25th-26th.
3. Potential Entry/Exit Points:
Bullish Scenario:
Entry: A long position can be considered on a bounce from the 570-569.89 support zone. Wait for confirmation of support holding (e.g., bullish candle pattern, or volume surge).
Exit: Target the 574-575 resistance area for profit-taking, but keep an eye on momentum to see if it can break further. If volume increases on the upside, you can look for targets beyond 575.50.
Stop Loss: Place a stop below the 569.89 support to minimize risk if the price breaks down.
Bearish Scenario:
Entry: A short position can be considered if price fails to break above the 571.32 resistance level or on a breakdown below 570.42 with strong volume.
Exit: First target would be 569.89, and the second target would be the key support level near 560.79. Beyond this, further downside may be possible if there’s continued selling pressure.
Stop Loss: If shorting near 571.32, a stop just above this level (around 572 or 572.50) would protect against a reversal.
4. Indicators Analysis:
Moving Averages: The price seems to be below key moving averages, indicating short-term bearish pressure. If it moves back above the MAs, it could indicate a bullish reversal.
MACD: The MACD at the bottom suggests that bearish momentum is slowing down as the histogram is flattening. This could indicate a potential reversal if a bullish crossover occurs soon.
5. Overall Sentiment:
Bearish Bias: As the price broke below the trendline and is currently below the key levels of 571.32, the short-term bias appears bearish. A further break below 570.42 and 569.89 could intensify this.
Bullish Potential: If SPY holds the 570 level and shows strength tomorrow, it could attempt a rally toward the 574-575 resistance zone.
Suggestion:
Tomorrow, I would watch closely for price action around the 570-569.89 zone to determine if there is support holding or if further downside pressure is building. If support holds, look for a potential bounce, but if it fails, prepare for a bearish move.
"All-Time Highs" Finally! New Channel Unlocked ! what's next?
Finally, we are at "All-Time Highs" and have unlocked a New Channel. What will happen next?
Let’s just let the price follow its course. Last week, we correctly predicted the price movement by creating an "N3" and landing in the order block as support to gain upward momentum
with the recent movements the price has made, we have unlocked a new upward channel in which we will be monitoring the price movement in the coming weeks (Yellow Channel).
Here, we only need to focus on two things:
1. We can see that the last candle is an "Inside Candle." An inside bar can be bullish or bearish, depending on its context within price action. If it forms within a downtrend, it can be considered bearish, indicating a possible continuation. If it forms within an uptrend, it can be considered bullish, suggesting a possible continuation of the uptrend. (Look up this important candlestick pattern on Google.)
In this case, the last two candles were bearish, so we might consider that the market could either drop or bounce again in our order block to continue the uptrend. This is the scenario I will be expecting if we have a bearish market on Monday.
Now, if the price falls to the order block zone, notice how it will also respect the support of the yellow channel. This could mark the beginning of a bullish sequence.
2. Its Simple, the price stays within the yellow channel and follows an upward and orderly sequence.
Thank you for supporting my analysis, and be very cautious when we are at all-time highs. The price can be highly unpredictable, so always make sure to mark your channels and consider institutional movements of supply and demand.
Best regards.
$SPY September 30, 2024AMEX:SPY September 30, 2024
15 Minutes
For the fall 574.21 to 570.42 572 is a good level to short.
First target is 569.5 to 570 levels.
AMEX:SPY seems to have lost momentum on Friday. Looks highly possible to touch 200 averages in 15 minutes.
This retrace will allow AMEX:SPY to begin next move upwards as in daily also it is around 9 ema around 569 levels.
So initially a retrace to 568-570 is good to consolidate.
Monday no trade day for me.
SPY BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are now examining the SPY pair and we can see that the pair is going up locally while also being in a uptrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB upper band being nearby, indicating that the pair is overbought so we can go short from the resistance line above and a target at 538.14 level.
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SPY: Bullish, Bullish, Bullish .. MaybeHey guys,
Per ush, its been a hot second. To be fair, there hasn't been anything to update as we retain the bull market bias and an up bias, no point in saying up every week haha.
But now that things seem .. bearish, I think its time pop in and give a brief update.
Its not bearish. Projections are incredibly optimistic for next week. The caveat being that Monday is showing as particularly bearish. So probably a sell to kick off the week, but don’t expect parabolic demise. The projections on everything are incredibly bullish. That include: SPXL, SPX, SPY, QQQ, TQQQ, NDX, DJI, Bullish with no hint of bearishness from what I can see in the preliminary forecast. That kind of prospective conviction usually translates to some pretty convincing PA.
My biggest concern here is that we could theoretically consolidate and continue consolidating for some time. But with kind of everything index wise leaning to a solid bullish bias on the probability algorithms, I suspect we should actually see conviction one way or another this week.
Into Friday and over this weekend I was actually bearish biased for a 4% pullback. Now that the market has what it wants (50 bps cut) and all is good in the world of the market, I have noticed a decline in volatility. The PA is more similar now to 2021. And in 2021 and through most historic stable bull markets, pullbacks are about 4 to 5%,
However, obviously the fact that legit every model read bullish for next week made me take a second look, and I kind of understand now why the 4% pullback is not likely to happen:
Based on our recent breakout, a 4% pullback would require us to completely give up the breakout and break down from it. That would be an incredibly bearish thing, which the market isn’t going to allow, However, the bearish probability for Monday does suggest we could see a re-test of this breakout. As from where we closed on Friday, a retest is about 0.8%, If we somehow manage to gap down, it will be less.
We have a very bullish reference target as well as you can see in the chart above (the yellow line). That target is 572.50.
Remember, we have a very high prob target, with a miss rate of around 5%, at 585 on SPY for this 6 month period.
In October, I will do my October themed post because its my favourite time of year! Haha, and I will share the end of year, 3 month (quarterly) high prob target for SPY.
So in closing, SPY looking bullish for the week except on Monday. Retain bullish thesis overall but brace yourself for the chance that we continue consolidation.
If you are intending to swing SPY long going into next week, my suggestion is ETF. If you want to use options, go further out and try to go as ITM as possible, because if we do enter a period of continued consolidation, its going to destroy OTM, cheap options. The market has not been option friendly lately, especially with the VIX not falling and maintaining an elevated level, So you have to be sure to take this consideration seriously, otherwise you can be right and we go up but you still lose money.
On the topic of that 585 high prob target, the range cap on the week is … 585 haha.
That’s it guys, safe trades!
SpyLook for a pullback here to 560-562 next week minimum.. too many red flags showing right now.
The biggest is flag is NYA which represents the broader market then just the S&P 500
Closed at the top of a wedge with a reversal candle .. I expect a pullback to support thena final bounce higher around mid October I expect a wedge flush and bigger correction.. So this pullback to support should align with Spy move down to 560
Dow jones grinding in a broadening wedge.. finished with a reversal candle also friday.. look for a move down to 41,000 next week
It's been a long time since I've seen so many sectors and indexes flashing red. One of the most reliable tools prefer to use is the price range; this tool measures the distance between the stock or indexes candle from its 20sma moving average.
Here's an example.. notice how when Spy gets 3% extended from its 20 the last few times it pullback there.. also daily moneyflow has went too overbought.
I'll go over QQQ and tech sectors tomorrow..
Overall we are just talking about a pullback before a final leg higher before mid October
BEARISH SPY H&S On the 1 min chart there is a gap from 9/27/24 at the 572.99 level show at 11:48am.
If you zoom out on a weekly it looks like a head and shoulders pattern is forming. Ideally I would like to wait for the gap fill to happen next week and enter into SPY 573 PUTS 3 weeks out.
Oct tends to be a bearish month.
LEts see how this works out.
The S&P rally continues, defying all fears of a recessionLast week was marked by erratic price movements, leading many to recall the old adage, "no trade might be your best trade." The most confusing (and devastating) price action occurred on Thursday following the FOMC's interest rate decision. The Fed cut rates by 0.5 percentage points, sparking fears of an upcoming recession. Wednesday ended with a strong bearish "falling star" candle, tempting traders to take large SHORT positions. To be honest, I would have likely done the same if I had been trading that day (luckily, I wasn’t), as the least one would have expected was an overnight rally that wiped out short positions when the market opened on Thursday.
This series of events is a perfect example of what makes trading so challenging— even a solid setup can fail spectacularly without any clear reason.
Now, let's try to assess the current situation :
1. The Fed cut rates by 0.5 percentage points – This is actually positive for the economy and the stock market for many reasons (e.g. cheaper borrowing costs). At the same time there are no objective signs of a recession, only fears.
2. The SPX reached a new all-time high – How can this be bearish?
3. Both weekly and daily charts show a strong uptrend.
4. Almost all major SPX sectors closed the week strong, reflecting investor confidence.
In summary, the market remains very bullish , with no indication that the trend is reversing anytime soon. Short term price action might be erratic, but long-term things look good both from technical and fundamental perspectives.
Let’s stay calm and prudent.
Important levels:
Last major weekly high (538). As long as it holds buyers have control over weekly chart.
$SPY September 27, 2024AMEX:SPY September 27, 2024
15 Minutes.
Holding 570-571 levels uptrend continues.
These represent 50 and 100 averages in 15 minutes.
Above 573+ i expect a good move today.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-27 : Gap Potential PatternToday's Gap Potential will likely resolve in an opening price gap to the upside.
I believe the current price bias, which is still to the upside, will prompt a higher opening price gap followed by a moderate bullish trend today.
I will warn you that an afternoon consolidation period heading into the weekend is not out of the question. So, be prepared for a flat trading range after Noon (NY) lasting possibly 60-90 minutes.
The close of trading today could prompt a fairly big price trend (an end-of-day Squeeze). This is capital moving out of the markets before the weekend, and it could prompt a big opportunity for traders. My guess is it would be to the upside, but it really depends on how price reacts throughout the day.
Right now, I would guess the upward price squeeze will change by 55 to 65% at the end of the day.
Overall, I believe today will be rather muted for the SPY, QQQ, Gold, Silver, and BTCUSD. Yesterday's big CRUSH bar is the volatility event this week (setting new higher highs and higher lows), followed by today's price action, which will settle ahead of next week.
So, today, it will likely show moderate trending with periods of flat/consolidation. The end of the day may show a more aggressive "Squeeze" trend - but we'll see if that happens.
Either way, play the chart. Play what is in front of you, and don't get trapped in any longer-term expectations. There will be lots of opportunities next week for bigger trends.
Get Some.
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SPY SELL ANALYSIS RISING WEDGE PATTERN Here on Spy price has make a rising wedge and about to fall go for SHORT if line 571.88 break with target profit of 569.22 .Use money management
NEW HIGHS Broken out of old resistance now new supportWith every indicator overbought, there is still no sign of selling pressure. Trend analysis is still up; this can get closer to 600 before it corrects.
Monitoring 30m Flip Amid Bullish 3h StructureThe 30m swing is still bullish. Waiting for the 30m to flip bearish to align with the expected 3h swing pullback. For now, the 30m continues to support the bullish structure.
Expired SPY Weekly outlook. 4th WK SEP 2024Expired SPY Weekly outlook. 4th WK SEP 2024
> BULLISH 📈 HIT
Prior Week Closed Price: 568.25
This Week Target Price: 571
Strike Price: 574.02 on SEP 26, 2024
Upper Range: 580
Lower Range: 563
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day Traders for Sept 26No video again tonight but here is the trading range. Implied move is between 566 - 573 on the day. We’re above the top of the implied move right now with where futures take it so be careful if we open elevated and don’t get back into the implied move right away, that’s a squeeze setup right there.
Don’t forget Powell speaks today in the morning and we have GDP both of which could bring that down, but if we stay elevated be careful of a squeeze.
Stupid Willy is pointing down.
35EMA has been holding us up since FOMC and it’s right in the middle today.
GL, y’all… I’ll keep you up to date on the wifi situation and hopefully videos will resume soon.
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$SPY September 26, 2024AMEX:SPY September 26, 2024
15 Minutes.
Yesterday was sideways.
So today i expect the move.
All moving averages converged.
Took support in 100 averages multiple times in 15 minutes time frame.
I expect a swift move once 572 is crossed.
Will close longs below 568.
