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SPY in Downtrend: Key Levels and Trade Setups for Nov. 15, 2024Trading Plan and Technical Analysis for SPY Overview SPY has shown a sharp downward trend recently, with price action reflecting bearish momentum. In this setup, I’ll cover important support and resistance levels, supply and demand zones, and potential entry/exit points for both scalping and swing trades. Key Levels Support Zones: $591: This is the immediate support level. A break below this could signal further downside momentum. $585: If SPY fails to hold above $591, this level becomes the next target and is a key zone where buyers may step in. Resistance Zones: $594.34 - $594.96: This area served as previous support and may now act as resistance. A strong push above this range could indicate a potential reversal. $599.16: If SPY can break through $594 with volume, the next significant resistance is around $599. Price Action & Supply/Demand Zones Demand Zone: Between $585 and $591, where SPY may find buying interest if the downward pressure subsides. Supply Zone: The region around $594.34 - $594.96. If price approaches this zone, watch for potential selling or resistance unless there’s a strong breakout. Order Blocks & Market Structure Bearish Order Block: Around $594.34 - $594.96, where sellers previously gained control. This area is a critical level for bears to defend if the downtrend is to continue. Potential Bullish Reversal: If SPY can reclaim and hold above $594.96, it could signal a shift toward bullish sentiment, at least for a short-term bounce. Entry & Exit Suggestions Scalping Entry: For short scalps, look to enter around $591 on breakdowns or quick bounces, targeting $588 with a tight stop above $592. Swing Trade Entry: Consider entering near $585 if SPY reaches this level and shows signs of support, with a potential target around $594.34. Use a stop-loss below $584 to manage risk. Directional Outlook Bearish Scenario: If SPY fails to hold $591, look for further downside, with $585 as the next key target. Bullish Reversal Potential: For a bullish reversal, SPY needs to break above $594.96 with volume. This could lead to a short-term move toward $599.16. Thoughts and Suggestions With the current downtrend, scalpers should focus on quick plays around the support levels. Swing traders may find opportunity if SPY shows signs of strength at $585, but it’s crucial to be cautious until a clearer reversal signal emerges. Disclaimer This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making trading decisions.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-14 : Temp Bottom In Trend ModeToday's pattern suggests the SPY will attempt to continue to flag sideways and slightly higher after finding support in early trading. Watch my video in detail. I go into a lot of longer-term price pattern detail and discuss the post-election setup of my Anomaly Event expectation. As I see the markets right now, they have moved, and continue to move in a direction that is likely to present a very real moderate crisis event over the next 3 to 6+ months. The stronger US Dollar is very likely to put pressure on foreign markets/debt related to the "carry trade" that was abundant before and after COVID. The Trump win is sending the markets into a Super-Predator mode (maybe I'll create a new video about this), where global markets, central banks, and global financial institutions may be at risk related to their long-term debt positions. At this point, The SPY and the QQQ will likely slide into a consolidation phase (a type of FLAGGING related to the broader Excess Phase Peak pattern) over the next 3+ days. Then, I expect the Anomaly Event to start to take shape and for the SPY/QQQ to begin a downward price trend. Gold and Silver are struggling to find a bottom as the US Dollar continues to rally. Don't expect any relief for metals as along as the US Dollar is rallying like this. This is a predatory shift related to global assets and Gold/Silver are going to stay weaker for as long as this shift continues. BTCUSD may rally up to $108k~120k if my research is correct. BTCUSD is in a "rally to the ultimate high" mode based on a very large Weekly Excess Phase Peak pattern. Remember, everything you need to know is already on the price chart. You just have to learn to identify these patterns and spend some time looking around at various intervals to figure out what is going to happen next. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
2
$SPY November 14, 2024AMEX:SPY November 14, 2024 15 Minutes. We are in an interesting setup. Foe the fall 600.17 to 594.37 AMEX:SPY retraced 599 levels. That is 78% retracement of the fall. Also, we have a 599 top earlier on 12th November too. And for the rise 594.99 to 599.23 AMEX:SPY has retraced 61.8% to 596 levels. Both denotes a limit of double top or double bottom being 599 or 594. So, until this range is broken, I have no trade on either direction. Today we will have a one-sided Thursdays move as usual. My downside is limited to 590 592 levels. So, I will not take any shorts yet. If 592 is broken, then I will look for 586-584 as target. That represents 38% to 50% retracement for the rise 567.89 to 600.17. 585 at the moment is also 100 averages in 60 minutes time frame.
AMEX:SPYShort
by RiderTrader
3
SPY Tipping Point: Key Supply and Demand Zones with Entry, ExitSPY is at a critical juncture, balancing between strong support and resistance zones. This analysis dives into actionable price levels, key zones, and setups for both scalping and swing trading. Let’s see where SPY might head next. Market Structure Overview: SPY has been consolidating near the $598 level, showing a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. This range-bound behavior typically suggests a buildup for a potential breakout or breakdown. With a slight bearish tilt in recent price action, SPY appears to be preparing for a directional move soon. Key Zones: Demand Zone (Support): $594.42 - $596 This is a critical area where buyers have consistently stepped in, providing strong support. If SPY reaches this zone and holds, it could present an ideal entry for a long scalp. However, a breakdown here might signal a larger downward move. Supply Zone (Resistance): $600.99 - $602 The $601-$602 level has acted as a cap for recent rallies. A break and close above this zone could attract further buying interest, targeting higher levels. Order Block Insight: SPY has a visible order block around $598. This level is seeing substantial buying and selling pressure, indicating that institutional players may be active here. Price action at this block could offer clues on short-term direction. Support & Resistance with Entry, Exit, and Stop Suggestions: Immediate Support: $596 Long Entry: Around $596 if there’s a clear bounce, aiming for exits at $598 and $600. Stop-Loss: Below $595 to manage risk if SPY breaks lower. Immediate Resistance: $598 Short Entry: Near $598 if there’s rejection, with targets at $596 and $594.42. Stop-Loss: Above $599 to protect against a reversal. Swing Trade Setup: Swing Long: Above $602, with targets at $604 and $607. This breakout could indicate a bullish trend continuation. Stop-Loss: Below $600 to reduce downside risk. Swing Short: Below $594.42, targeting $592, then $590 if selling pressure intensifies. Stop-Loss: Above $596 to control risk if SPY reverses. Price Action Insights: The recent price action suggests a slight bearish bias as SPY struggles to break $598 consistently. This range compression could mean a breakout is nearing, likely fueled by an increase in volume. SPY’s inability to decisively clear $600 aligns with the MACD, which has recently shown a bearish crossover. Indicator Analysis (9 EMA & 21 EMA): SPY is currently trading around the 9 EMA, with the 21 EMA above it, providing added resistance. A cross of the 9 EMA above the 21 EMA could be a bullish signal, prompting scalpers to look for quick longs. Until then, staying cautious on longs within this tight range is advisable. Scalping & Swing Outlook: Scalping: Look for quick short entries around $598 with exits near $596 or long entries around $596 targeting $598. Use tight stops given SPY’s choppy behavior. Swing: A clear break above $602 or below $594 could provide a more definitive trend. Until then, patience is essential to avoid getting caught in fakeouts. Directional Thoughts & Suggestions: SPY’s current setup suggests a slight downside bias, but the tight range hints at an impending breakout. Watching reactions at $598 and $596 will be crucial. I lean towards a bearish direction if $594 breaks, targeting $592 as the next support. However, a break above $602 would invalidate this view and favor a bullish continuation to higher levels. Conclusion: SPY’s setup highlights a battle at key levels, making disciplined entries and stops crucial. Patience for confirmed breaks will improve trade accuracy, especially for swing setups. This environment suits scalpers who can capitalize on tight ranges and quick exits. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor. Trading involves risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-13 : Consolidation PatternToday's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Consolidation pattern. I believe the SPY will continue to attempt to form a "rolling top" pattern over the next few days and attempt to move into my Anomaly event over the next 15+ days. This Anomaly event is likely to prompt a fairly strong downward trend related to the recent post-election rally. I believe Gold and Silver MAY HAVE found the ultimate low. It sure looks like Gold and Silver are attempting to base with a near-perfect Excess Phase Peak pattern Ultimate Low setup. Time will tell. If gold and silver fall further, the rallying of the US dollar will likely be the cause. I'm watching BTCUSD for a toping formation as I spent quite a bit of time going over the dual Excess Phase Peak pattern in BTCUSD. This is very interesting because it aligns with Fibonacci Price Theory very cleanly. Today, it seems traders can kind of take a break from the markets. If my analysis is correct, today will be a fairly quiet Consolidation day - where price attempts to trade in a bit of a sideways price mode - searching for the next big move. Pay attention to the BTCUSD chart where I highlight the 13:00 to 15:00 ET Flag Apex time. It appears BTCUSD may move into a volatile price phase near this time - possibly associated with some news or event. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
2
Technical Analysis of SPY (S&P 500 ETF Trust) for Nov. 12, 2024Overview: SPY is currently testing a significant resistance level following a notable rally from late October lows. The ETF has shown sustained upward momentum on the hourly chart, respecting the trendline drawn since the breakout. However, momentum indicators suggest the rally may be facing exhaustion. Traders should be on alert for either a breakout continuation or a potential pullback, depending on upcoming price action around this resistance area. Key Levels to Watch: Resistance Levels: $601.05: A critical resistance level that SPY is currently testing. A break above this could lead to further bullish momentum. $610.00: If SPY breaks above $601.05 with volume, $610.00 could be the next target for bulls. Support Levels: $589.84: The immediate support level. A break below this could signal a weakening trend and may indicate a retracement. $578.35: A more substantial support level to watch in case of a pullback, marking previous consolidation before the recent run-up. Indicators and Trends: Moving Averages (EMA 9 & 21): The EMAs on this chart have been a good gauge of trend direction, with the price remaining above both the 9 and 21 EMAs, which currently act as dynamic supports. As long as SPY trades above these EMAs, the short-term trend remains bullish. Volume Analysis: Volume shows signs of declining as SPY approaches resistance, indicating potential buyer fatigue. A breakout with strong volume would suggest conviction among buyers, while a drop-off in volume could lead to a consolidation phase or even a reversal. MACD Indicator: The MACD shows a potential bearish crossover on the hourly chart, hinting at a slowing momentum. Traders should monitor this closely; if it crosses below the signal line, it could reinforce a bearish outlook, potentially initiating a retracement towards the support levels. Trade Strategy and Actionable Insights: For Bullish Traders: Look for a confirmed breakout above the $601.05 level with above-average volume. If this occurs, consider entering a long position with an initial target around $610.00. To manage risk, set a stop-loss slightly below $589.84, as this level marks the closest support. For Bearish Traders: Watch for signs of weakness, such as a rejection at $601.05 or a drop below $589.84. If SPY fails to break out and begins showing bearish signals, short positions could be taken with a target towards the $578.35 level. Set stops just above the $601.05 resistance to limit potential losses if the breakout resumes. Final Thoughts: This is a pivotal point for SPY. A breakout above resistance with volume could propel SPY into new highs, while a rejection could spark a short-term pullback. Traders should closely monitor price action around these levels, as it will likely provide clearer guidance on the next trend direction. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk, and it's essential to do your research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
4
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-12 : Top/Resistance PatternToday's video is filled with great content. Near the end of the video, I review the 11 SPDR sectors related to my deep research into my Anomaly price pattern. Right now, I see the markets as very over-extended (overbought). I believe the markets will attempt to contact over the next 15-20+ days - setting up a base/bottom before a very late-stage Santa Rally sets up. I've been very busy over the past few day and have a family member in the hospital right now. So, I'll be away from my PC for a bit today. Remember, protect capital at all times. I've been getting messages from people suggesting some traders are trying to go ALL-IN on some of these bigger price moves. My suggestion more than three weeks ago (and even right now), is you should be in 85% CASH unless you can take the LUMPS related to trading through a hotly contested election event. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
2
SPY S&P 500 ETF End of the Year Price Target If you haven`t bought the recent dip on SPY: Now with Goldman Sachs lowering U.S. recession odds from 20% to 15% and raising their 2024 year-end S&P 500 target to 6000 from 5600, the outlook for the market appears increasingly optimistic. The reduced recession risk suggests stronger economic stability, and the upward revision in the S&P target points to continued growth potential. Given these factors, I agree that a year-end price target of 600 on SPY is achievable.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
1
Will SPY Drop Back to the $580s? Time to Consider Buying Puts?Is SPY Overhyped? The Election Bounce Might Be Over – RSI is Screaming "Take Cover!" Look, I get it – SPY has been on a tear lately, soaring like a hot-air balloon fueled by election hype and investor euphoria. But let's slow down for a second. The market's been on a wild ride this quarter, with volatility hitting levels that could make even the most seasoned traders break a sweat. Between the election results, market speculation, and everyone's favorite fear – uncertainty – it's easy to get swept up in the hype. But here’s the thing: it looks like SPY might be a bit too overbought for comfort. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is creeping dangerously close to overbought territory, which for anyone who's been paying attention is usually a sign that things are getting a little *too* frothy. Sure, a good rally feels great, but we all know what happens when everyone’s running for the exits at the same time, right? **Spoiler alert: it’s not pretty.** We’re staring down the barrel of Q1, and there’s no shortage of potential landmines. Rising interest rates, the fallout from whatever political circus unfolds next, and let’s not forget those pesky earnings reports that have a habit of disappointing just when you least expect it. With all this swirling, it wouldn’t take much for SPY to take a tumble back into the $580s, especially if the market gets a reality check. So, what should you do? Well, if you’re feeling a little wary of SPY’s relentless climb, maybe it’s time to consider buying puts. With volatility as high as it is, there’s potential for some serious upside if the market decides to retrace a bit. Plus, you know, better to be a bit cautious than regret not having protection when the tide turns. In short, SPY might have gotten a bit too cocky after the election results, and with the RSI flashing some red lights, it wouldn’t hurt to hedge your bets. You know, just in case it’s time for a little market correction – back to those sweet, sweet $580s. It’s a jungle out there, folks – better bring some puts for protection.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Premium-Flippa
Road To $600 SPY Target Reached Whats Next JoeWtrades The GoatCongratulations To Everyone Who Has Been Following My Posts Since Oct 10th On Spy Road To $600 I hope a lot of you did well with your Trading In the Market! So JoeWtrades What's next for Spy & The Stock Market as A whole? Is it time to pack up and exit the Market Lol No! Well I hear Warren Buffet Sold over 50% of all his holdings Berkshire Investments Apple Bank of America ECT. Ill tell you what's next I defiantly know something that will 10-30x in the next 45 days in a swing trade!! Anyways I expect Spy to continue its trend I will post order blocks on Spy along with Targets Tonight, Good Luck Traders & Don't Forget To like & Follow JoeWtrades!!!
AMEX:SPYLong
by JoeWtrades
1
$SPY ANALYSIS, KEY LEVELS & TARGETS for day traders 11.11.24All right, so today’s implied move is between 595 and 602. The average 30 day volatility between 591 and 604. Tuesday’s contract is between 594 and 603 the 35 EMA is just underneath the implied move so expect a flat or down day today. And keep in mind there is an up gap from last Thursday near the bottom of the trading range so that could offer a place where we see support. Stupid Willy is also at extreme overbought. See you guys tonight on the video.
AMEX:SPY
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
3
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-11: Gap Potential In Trend ModeHappy Veterans Day. Thanks to all the current and past service members who have dedicated so much time and effort to protect all of us from the evil in the world. If you have anyone in your family that has served in the military, please take a moment to call and thank them for their service today. As today is a Federal holiday, I expect the markets to be somewhat muted in terms of trends. We are still seeing BTCUSD rally higher as the Trump win delivers a clear mandate related to global crypto/blockchain opportunities. We are still dealing with a market in a post-election rally phase. I believe this rally phase will diminish over the next 5 to 7+ days and move into the early stages of my Anomaly phase. My research suggests the US and global markets are likely to move into a consolidation phase before attempting to move into a very late phase Santa Rally. So, at this point, with the SPY breaching 600 in pre-market trading, I would suggest traders start to PULL PROFITS and prepare for what I believe will be a moderate consolidation of price over the next 5-7+ trading days. Gold and Silver are still FLAGGING in an inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern. This is currently a bearish price trend - attempting to break higher to move into a rally to Phase #3 (consolidation). We could see some big price rotation today if Gold and Silver break above the FLAGGING trend. Buckle up. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
4
S&P Soars on Election Results in a Stunning RallyLast week's market movements provided a strong example of how impactful certain events can be on sentiment and momentum. In the last market recap, I highlighted uptrend continuation as the most likely scenario. However, at the start of the week, there was absolutely nothing on the chart suggesting a V-shape pivot. Week started on a weak note, but Tuesday marked a shift, as buying interest began to surface, quickly escalating into a stunning overnight gap once preliminary election results emerged. Essentially, the election results had a similar impact on the market as an earnings report can have on a company's stock price. This influx of optimism solidified bulls' control over the market, reinforcing a strong weekly uptrend. The buying wasn’t limited to a few sectors; instead, it was widespread, touching every major sector by the week’s end. Such broad-based buying underscores that the rally is not sector-specific but part of a larger, systemic movement. While we’re seeing robust upward momentum, it’s worth noting that both weekly and daily RSI levels are approaching overbought territory. However, as often observed in strong uptrends, prices can comfortably persist in the overbought zone. With no clear resistance above, I would strongly discourage trying to catch the top. Important levels to watch include 585 (VAH) , which is key in the event of a potential retest of the last consolidation zone, and 568 (major weekly low) , which buyers must protect to maintain control. P.S. If you missed this insane rally, don’t blame yourself too much. Had the election outcome been different, it’s easy to imagine the market would have plunged just as dramatically. So holding short-term position was similar to trading company earnings, which is, in a way, a form of gambling.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
SPY Momentum Push: Key Levels for Scalping & Intraday TradingSPY is showing strong bullish momentum on the 1-hour chart, with a significant rally and potential resistance forming near the $600 psychological level. The trend remains upward, but overbought conditions may lead to a brief consolidation or pullback. Price Action Analysis: Trend and Momentum: SPY has been trending upward with a consistent series of higher highs and higher lows, maintaining support above the 21 EMA. The current price is hovering just below $598-$600, a key resistance zone. A breakout here could lead to a test of all-time highs near $610. Support and Resistance Levels: Immediate Resistance: $598-$600. A decisive breakout above could trigger more buying, targeting the next resistance at $605-$610. Support Levels: First support at $583.27 aligns with previous consolidation zones. Secondary support around $579.47, where the 50 EMA is likely to provide additional backing. Key level to watch below is $567.89, acting as a strong demand zone if a deeper pullback occurs. Volume and MACD Analysis: Volume has been declining slightly as the price climbs, indicating a need for caution if a breakout above $600 does not come with increased volume. MACD is showing signs of flattening, suggesting potential divergence, which could hint at a slowing momentum. Scalping Opportunities: Long Scalp Entry: Consider entering above $598 with a tight stop at $596, aiming for a breakout scalp targeting $605-$610. Short Scalp Entry: If SPY fails to break $600 convincingly, a short scalp entry at $598 could target the $583 support level. Swing Trade Ideas: A strong breakout above $600 with volume could be a good swing entry, aiming for a move toward the $610 level. If SPY fails to hold above $583, a bearish swing trade setup targeting $567-$568 support is a potential play. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before making trading decisions.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
So, what happens next? I am not sure if everyone is wondering the same as me, but after the election results and seeing the PA reaction, I wondered “So…. What now?”. A challenging and interesting question that I don’t think I or anyone can answer with the upmost confidence. But I wanted to take the time to write out a post that combines some statistics, a recap of my YTD ideas on SPY and where we are now, and what the future could look like. I also hope to provide some perspective into the PA. I know for many of you, trading is new and a new exposure. For me, who has been trading since 2018, this year has felt like the most bullish year I have ever traded. But when I look at the objective data, it actually spells a different story. So make yourself comfortable, its probably going to be a long post! Forging into another era of Trump I will save any political opinions for elsewhere. But its interesting that Trump has been re-elected as my nascence in trading arrived under the Trump’s presidency. And interestingly enough, my indoctrination into trading a Trump market was trading a bear market! I started trading during the 2018 bear correction when the market saw an initial flash crash that was pretty quick. It rallied back up to make another ATH and then did a longer bear correction where it actually corrected below the 500 day mean: As well, this was a mean reversion on the log linear scale: As a personal anecdote, I am still very much a permabear, despite always shilling long more or less in the current climate, and I feel like this permabear mentality arrived from the first market I traded being a bear market. From 2016 to 2020, the market had about 4 crashes, 1 bear market/correction and the rest was all bull market. No real difference from any other 4 year period. The only major difference during 2016 – 2020 period were the crashes were a bit shallower than other crashes traditionally, with the average being about 11% vs overall average being about 13% for SPY’s nascence. What this means going forward? We will likely see a few crashes and at least one bear correction in the coming years. However, perhaps the extent of the crashes and corrections will be muted, if, under the new presidency, USA is able to raise its GDP and boost economic production, which happened during the 2016 – 2020 term. What about the Statistics? Taking fundamentals and politics out of the equation and simply looking at what the market can tell us about itself, we can see some other interesting tidbits. Either before continuing or after reading, I suggest you check out a previous post I did about the outlook for the S&P based on historical behaviour, it turned out to be spot on: Let’s look at standardized returns on SPY: SPY’s current annual return is 0.27. We are not, by any stretch of the imagination, at historically high return levels. But, close.. ish. As you can see from the information in the chart above, the historically high return happened during the tech bubble and was 0.38, or 38%. SPY currently rests at 27%. If we take the average returns in general, no filtering for bearish or bullish years, we get 0.10 (rounded), or 10%. The average return of only bullish years is 18%. If SPY were to close at the average this year, we would see SPY retrace back to 557. The median is 19%, which would be a retrace to 561. Other Statistics applicable One thing that I have used a bit this year is a Monte Carlo simulation. Monte Carlo simulations take the normal distribution and randomly assign values from the normal distribution over x number of simulations. The simulation I have used consists of 200 simulations, using 2023 data, and plotting the average of the central tendencies: If we zoom in a bit closer, we can see where the simulations all agree of dips (red) and rallies (green): If we want to take the simulation in totality, it shows that SPY could, theoretically, see a high this year of 621 to 650: If you remember my earlier post, the annual ARIMA for SPY put the 80% confidence level at 591, and the 95% confidence level at 621. So 621 could indeed be a target observed into EOY. Probability and more probability! Let’s talk about probability for a second. To ascertain a more accurate assessment of probability, I am going to use data for SPX. Keep in mind, SPX and SPY track the same thing, so the returns will be identical. Because we are standardizing returns, they will also be the same value. Just to put your mind at ease, SPY’s approximate returns YTD are: 0.2634936. SPX’s are 0.2669222. The difference is statistically insignificant. So using SPX data, which we have since 1878 ish, let’s calculate the probability of closing at or above where we are now (>= 26%). The probability of SPX closing with 26% returns is 15%.The probability of SPX closing at 18% is around 26%. What this means is, we can’t say that it is likely that SPY will maintain these levels into EOY. Its not impossible, 15% probability is actually pretty big, a bit bigger than I expected. But the odds favour more a more reasonable close in the 18% area. If we want to take it a step further, and calculate what is the probability that SPX/SPY closes on a High. The probability that SPX will close on a high is 16%. Again, I am a little shook by this high percent! But obviously its not as likely as if it were to be 50% or 80%. Forecasts Don’t worry, we are nearing the end of this post. If you are reading to this point, thanks! I appreciate your interest in my random tangents of applying stats to markets! I want to briefly touch on Forecasts and outlooks. The market is naturally bullish. The U.S. has a new president that tends to have an emphasis on a strong economy. What is the most likely forecast? This is a complex question. I can accomplish a general forecast through using algorithms, but it doesn’t really take into account the economic influence that may be at play if we do see a strong economy into 2025. Remember I indicated that during 2016 – 2020, we did have crashes and bear market corrections, but they were shallower than average, likely mitigated by the strong economic policy during that presidency. Using a basic, machine learning algorithm to forecast the end result. So what I am going to do is use SPX again, because again more history, and run a forecast based on this period here: And I am forecasting it over the next 252 days, or 1 trading year from Friday (November 8th, 2024). The result actually puts us back into 2022, with this being the scaled plot of the forecast: And lastly, Targets! So, let’s quickly talk targets. Remember, our ARIMA 95% level on the year is 621. That means, 95% of closes should fall below 621. In addition, we also have a high probability modelled target at 564. This is hit > 85% of the time. And lastly, based on a seasonality assessment, our most similar year is 2021. This puts our scaled annual high at approximately 601. The targets we should absolutely see into EOY are: 564 and 601. The sequence of events remain up for debate. Conclusion: So, this is a long post, let me just give you the cliff notes of what to take away from it: Cap on the year should be 621. Retracement target should be around 564. High of the year should be around 601. There is about a 15% chance we close the year at this position or higher. There is about a 26% chance we close below this level but at or above 557. Overall assessment reveals a possible correction/crash. Its unlikely we see much lower than 564, even getting to 564 seems rather impossible at this point, but crashes come swift and unexpected I will be honest, I am not sure we see too much downside before EOY. The market is on a cocaine fueled rocket that shows no signs of slowing. I “feel” that its just going to go up until there is a reality check into the following year. But this is not based on the objective data, just my own “feelings” which are not all that reliable, haha. That’s it everyone! Thanks for reading, safe trades and happy rest of the trading year!
AMEX:SPY
by Steversteves
7