Keep your eye on this wedge pattern for QQQ.Keep your eye on this wedge pattern for QQQ. If it closes below the wedge line, there is a good chance it falls more.
QQQ trade ideas
QQQ Will Explode! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for QQQ below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 396.75
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 405.80
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
#MNQ_F quick scope analysisMarket's hotter than a third-zone loadout, ain't it? Indices pinging like UAVs, bears circling the NASDAQ like vultures around a downed UAV. Heard whispers of shorts piling on #NQ_F like they found a secret bunker full of cash contracts. But hey, never count out the bulls, right? They got more lives than a stim-addicted stim fiend in Plunder. Still, gotta watch the tape close. That price action's jittery as a heartbeat after a clutch revive. Might be time to place a short entry myself, just call it market reconnaissance. But remember, comrades, this ain't Verdansk – no second chances here. Make your moves sharp, keep your stops tight, and watch the exit like it's the final exfil. This market's a Warzone, and nobody's getting redeployed if they mess up their trades. Stay frosty.
QQQ need correctionNot a recommendation, the market needs a correction to achieve new historical peaks in 2024-2025.
QQQI'm not sure, but I tried a lot.
In general, we have two upper and lower trend lines that decide this.
QQQ Naked Analysis This entire structure is a giant correction, it will eventually going to make new ATHs the question is where is the bottom ? Based on my unparalleled unique pattern recognition analysis we may bottom out at around 220$.
What do you think ? have we bottomed
Here is the video on how i timed the market so precise:
Not an investment advice
Pump the idea with your likes
Cup pattern in QQQThere is a cup pattern in QQQ, the resistance of the previous high is already broken as well. It is ready to go up to around $570.
QQQ PullbackUsually the 20 SMA and the MACD turning bearish has been a good combination in identifying trend reversals. I think QQQ could see the 370's again.
I'm still bullish on QQQ, here's why!QQQ is repeating 2010 all over again in terms of price action:
Take note of how we fell, retested the 50 DMA, rallied, then double bottomed at $42 in 2010, before an even bigger bullish rally took place
In the worst case, expect $342 to be the absolute bottom in 2024. From there a massive rally could take place between April 29 (BTC Halving) & August (when seasonal weakness tends to kick in during an election year).
There is NOTHING to fear as long as QQQ holds above the 200 MA on the 3 Day timeframe ($337 as of writing), and if $337 holds as strong support... EVERY DIP FOR THE NEXT 120 DAYS IS A BUY!
QQQ 200 EMA Bounce PotentialQQQ is sitting directly on the 200 EMA on the 65min chart. Worth watching if we get a relief bounce Friday, or if we knife right through. Looking for a red open that goes green to take a reversal day trade.
QQQ/SPY: Descent Progress ReportIn my last idea on the Annual outlook for SPY, I indicated we would likely start the year off bearish, which has so far proved correct.
The alternative was a continuation up to high targets, but generally when we open the year closer to the high targets, it usually leads to a sell.
SPY has been slow to sell, but QQQ has been quick to sell.
Most likely explanation there is, there was major bullish positioning by small and large speculators on NQ1! (at historically high levels in fact) and major bearish positioning on ES1!.
As tech hit the ground running bearish, it likely is leading to massive long coverings which, as with short covering, creates an inverse short squeeze (Long Squeeze), where longs are covering which adds to the dramatic tumble of the future/index.
Unlike ES where everyone was mostly already positioned short, so there is no added pressure on SPY to go down.
As well, NQ/tech needed a larger correction owning to its more aggressive run up.
How much further down is the question but I can tell you its likely we haven't bottomed quite yet.
Daily volume still signaling a top on NQ, ES and SPX.
We are still over-extended on the daily timeframe.
If we look at a simple autoregressed Model of QQQ, SPY, NQ1! and ES1! we can see really what is likely to happen:
NQ1!:
ES1!:
SPY:
QQQ:
And just for perspective, let's look at QQQ on the weekly:
We need to, at the very least, retrace the centre-line of the autoregressed clouds.
Even in 2021, there were frequent retracements of this line:
Whether we go below the centreline on the weekly (we are already there on the daily) is a matter of question, but we can use some other tools to help us figure it out. For example, if we look at the 3 month levels on QQQ:
We have broken below the threshold indicating a move to 385 is likely, which also aligns with our Autoregressed cloud target.
We do have that bullish GT there, but you know, we have three months to hit it, so we really need to finish the pullback into the low range of these 3 month clouds and then we can start the recovery back up. The fast we tank, the faster we can start recovery.
For SPY:
Already shared this, but here it is again. Still has a ways to go to even just break down from the bearish threshold, but its working its way.
Your immediate target on SPY should be a move to 466.
Immediate target on QQQ should be a move towards 391.
QQQ has broken down the SMA on the autoregression clouds and this can sometimes lead to a period of consolidation before continuation. Here is an example:
My ideal place to begin my long entries is a move to the 3 month low targets. This would be fantastic and a great R:R for some major upside action.
Remember, we spent like 1 month going straight up. The indices need time to sort their S**T out, conslidate, pullback, stabilize, shakeout everyone and then continue with its overal prerogative.
My opinion, and solely my opinion and not advice is this:
1) Too early to build a long swing position,
2) Still time to build a small short swing position assuming either long dated options or shares,
3) Too late to do short term options in either direction.
Those are my thoughts, I will maybe stick to updating this idea into next week.
I have also included the next 5 day ARIMA Forecast in the main chart on QQQ.
The outer bands are the 80% confidence levels up and down. We should remain confined within these bands over the next 5 days. I have aligned them with the 5 day period on the chart.
(Side note, when I started trading with math I would trade exclusively ARIMA Forecasts and bell curve levels, then that was replaced with RPPIs and my own models, but another resolution this year is to re-include ARIMA because its very helpful and its also what big market makers use themselves, so I will be including the confidence levels and ARIMA levels in future ideas!).
Those are my thoughts! Thanks for reading, Trade safe and take care!
One thing I forgot to add, if we were to trade solely the Heikin Ashi setup, the retracement level is here:
Which also corresponds to a gap close on NQ.
However, this setup does not exist on ES.
Very curious.
QQQ is sick more fed news on Friday Short StrategyQQQ is here on a 30-minute chart showing its pivot down from a near-term high in a descending
regression channel. Advanced RSI and MACD indicators are used to better pinpoint short entries
in this downtrend especially with put options contracts with expirations every other day.
Greed has turned to fear. Those equipped with experience and risk management can capitalize
now to build capital for when the bull run resumes.
$QQQ HEADING TOWARDS 382 FORMER BREAKOUT SUPPORT NASDAQ:QQQ 382 support short term target as long as 402.91 doesn't reclaim. Short on QQQ should place a stop there with a short term swing target at 402.91
Reversal patterns at Daily and Weekly time frames!Spotting Market Reversals:
Evening Doji Star and Three Black Crows
In the ever-churning ocean of financial markets, traders navigate treacherous waters armed with their knowledge and technical analysis tools. Among these tools, candlestick patterns serve as lighthouses, guiding traders toward potential turning points in price movements. Today, we'll explore two such patterns: the Evening Doji Star and the Three Black Crows, and how their appearance on weekly and daily charts can signal a potential market reversal.
Evening Doji Star: A Beacon in the Twilight
Imagine a market that has been steadily climbing for weeks. Bulls are in control, pushing prices higher with each passing day. Suddenly, a single candlestick appears on the weekly chart, its shape unlike any before. This is the Evening Doji Star.
The Evening Doji Star is a three-candle bearish reversal pattern. Here's how to identify it:
Long White Candle: The first candle is a long white candle, signifying continued bullish momentum.
Doji Star: The second candle is a Doji, with its open, high, and close prices clustered tightly together. This Doji star represents indecision, with bulls and bears wrestling for control.
Black Candle: The third candle is a black candle with a close significantly lower than the Doji's open price. This confirms the bearish reversal, signaling that sellers have gained the upper hand.
The Evening Doji Star suggests that the uptrend might be losing steam. While not a guaranteed reversal signal, it serves as a cautionary tale for bullish traders, urging them to proceed with prudence.
Three Black Crows: A Flock of Ominous Signs
Now, let's zoom in from the weekly chart to the daily level. Here, we encounter another formidable bearish pattern: the Three Black Crows.
As the name suggests, the Three Black Crows is a three-candle bearish pattern formed by:
Three Consecutive Black Candles: Each candle must be black, indicating falling prices.
Progressive Lower Closes: The close of each subsequent candle should be lower than the previous candle's close, highlighting increasing bearish pressure.
Long Shadows: Ideally, the candles should have minimal upper shadows, signifying that selling dominated throughout the day.
The Three Black Crows pattern paints a picture of relentless bearishness, suggesting that a downtrend is taking hold. Traders who spot this pattern on the daily chart might consider taking short positions or exiting existing long positions to avoid potential losses.
Remember: While candlestick patterns offer valuable insights, they should not be used in isolation. Always consider other technical indicators and fundamental factors before making trading decisions.
The Verdict: A Powerful Duo
When identified in conjunction, the Evening Doji Star and Three Black Crows can paint a compelling picture of a potential market reversal. By understanding these patterns and their implications, traders can gain valuable insights into market sentiment and make informed trading decisions. However, it's crucial to remember that no pattern is foolproof, and a comprehensive approach to technical analysis is always recommended.
So, the next time you find yourself navigating the choppy waters of the financial markets, keep an eye out for these ominous crows and indecisive stars. They might be the harbingers of a coming storm, helping you adjust your sails and stay afloat in the ever-changing currents of the market.
QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF Price Prediction for 2024This was my price prediction for QQQ in 2023. I was bullish, but not enough:
Considerations about 2024:
In the July 2023 meeting, the FOMC chose to raise interest rates to a range of 5.25%–5.50%, marking the 11th rate hike in the current cycle aimed at mitigating heightened inflation. The prevailing consensus among market experts hints at a potential shift in strategy, suggesting that the Fed might commence rate cuts later in 2024 as inflation gradually aligns with the Fed's 2% target. Statistically, historical data indicates that approximately 11 months after the cessation of interest rate increases, a recession tends to manifest. This pattern places us around June 2024, aligning with my prediction of a dip in the QQQ to approximately $370.
Given that 2024 is an election year, there's an additional layer of complexity in predicting market behavior. Despite the anticipated mid-year dip, my inclination is that the QQQ will conclude the year on a bullish note. This optimistic outlook hints at the onset of a 3-5 year AI bubble cycle, with the QQQ boasting a year-end price target of $460.
The integration of artificial intelligence into various sectors is expected to catalyze market growth and innovation, propelling the QQQ to new heights by the close of 2024.
2024 Investment OutlookIntroduction
The current economic landscape is marked by higher interest rates and increased volatility, a departure from the stability observed in the decade following the global financial crisis. Unlike before, central banks face challenges in stabilizing economies due to production constraints and tougher trade-offs in addressing inflation versus supporting growth. The evolving economic environment is shaped by structural factors such as shrinking workforces, geopolitical fragmentation, and the low-carbon transition.
The prevailing uncertainty has led to a disconnect between cyclical narratives and structural realities, contributing to market volatility. Despite apparent U.S. economic growth, it reflects a recovery from the pandemic shock rather than robust expansion. The key implication is persistently higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions, prompting a need for a more active portfolio approach.
In this new regime, macro insights are expected to be valuable, with greater volatility and return dispersion creating opportunities for investment expertise.
Context is everything
In 2023, hopes for a soft landing in the U.S. economy have been fueled by robust growth in the third quarter, a significant decline in core inflation, and the creation of nearly 7 million jobs since January 2022. However, taking a broader perspective reveals that the economy is still recovering from the pandemic, with job gains largely recouping those lost during the initial impact. Despite strong job growth, overall economic activity has been below pre-pandemic expectations, averaging less than 1.8% annual growth since the pandemic.
The key insight is that a structural change has occurred, leading to a weaker growth path accompanied by higher inflation, increased interest rates, and elevated debt levels. The advice for investors is to focus on how the economy and markets are adjusting to this new regime rather than relying on a typical cyclical playbook, as the traditional approach may be misguided.
Managing Macro Risk
Investors are advised to neutralize macro exposures or, with high conviction, deliberately choose exposures. Analyst estimates for S&P 500 equity earnings show increased dispersion, emphasizing the potential rewards for macro insight.
Despite the adjustment to structurally higher inflation and policy rates, markets vary in their response. The uneven adjustment is highlighted by factors such as surging U.S. 10-year yields compared to relatively unchanged DM equity earnings yields. This adjustment is considered more critical than the possibility of a technical recession, warranting caution on broad exposures.
The long-term risk of higher inflation increases if borrowing costs remain elevated, potentially surpassing spending on Medicare in the future. A rise in term premium and expectations of increased yield volatility led to a tactical neutral stance and a strategic underweight position in long-term U.S. Treasuries. The preferred strategic overweight is in inflation-linked bonds.
Harnessing mega forces
The concept of mega forces offers a strategic approach to steering portfolios, focusing on building blocks that go beyond traditional asset classes. These forces, seen as independent drivers of corporate profits, provide potential opportunities that may be uncorrelated with macro cycles. Mega forces, such as digital disruption and artificial intelligence (AI), are already reshaping markets, as demonstrated by the outperformance of U.S. tech compared to the broader market.
The winners and losers in the mega forces landscape can influence tactical views, impacting stances on developed market equities even in less favorable macroeconomic conditions. Embracing mega forces is presented as a means for investors to outperform static allocations, leveraging the far-reaching consequences that create new investment opportunities. Examples include private credit filling the lending void due to capital pressures on banks, demographic shifts shaping production and growth limitations, and the emergence of climate resilience as an investment theme within the low-carbon transition.
AI intelligence revolution
Advances in computing hardware and deep learning have marked an inflection point for Artificial Intelligence (AI) since late 2022, with expectations of exponential progress in innovation. While tracking AI investment opportunities across geographies and sectors involves high uncertainty, a technology "stack" approach is suggested to assess these opportunities. The stack includes cloud infrastructure and chips as the foundational layer, followed by models, data, and data infrastructure, and finally, applications that harness innovation.
The tech industry, particularly led by major tech firms, is seen pivoting toward AI, indicating the potential for an intelligence revolution. The current position is perceived to be between the first and second layers of the technology stack, with the last layer anticipated to follow. This shift has implications beyond near-term productivity gains. Early research suggests a positive correlation between increased AI patents and broad earnings growth, indicating rising economic value attributed to these patents.
Despite uncertainties surrounding the future value of AI patents and their translation into profitable enterprises, there is an overweight recommendation on the AI theme in developed market stocks for the next six to twelve months. The tech sector's earnings resilience is expected to persist, serving as a significant driver of overall U.S. corporate profit growth in 2024.
Investing in climate resilience
The emphasis of this chapter is on helping investors navigate the risks and opportunities associated with the energy transition. Beyond renewables, traditional energy companies can also outperform, especially during supply-demand mismatches.
While the energy transition often dominates headlines, a related and crucial investment theme is climate resilience. This involves preparing for, adapting to, and withstanding climate hazards, as well as rebuilding after climate damage. Climate resilience encompasses various solutions like early monitoring systems, air conditioning to address heatwaves, and retrofitting buildings for better weather resistance. Given the anticipated increase in climate damages, significant investment is required to enhance society's resilience.
The economic impact of climate damages is growing rapidly, and there is a rising demand for products and services that contribute to climate resilience. This theme is identified as potentially becoming a mainstream investment theme over time. The three sub-themes within climate resilience—assessing and quantifying risks, managing risk, and rebuilding physical infrastructure—create a framework to identify opportunities across sectors (such as industrials and technology) and asset classes.
Deepening fragmentation
Cascading crises have accelerated global fragmentation and the emergence of competing geopolitical and economic blocs. Countries like Vietnam, Mexico, the Gulf states, India, and Brazil are seen as potential beneficiaries of supply chain diversification, establishing ties with multiple blocs, and possessing valuable resources. In this more competitive global landscape, a surge of investment in strategic sectors such as technology, energy, defense, and infrastructure is expected. Opportunities also exist in firms specializing in managing and reducing cybersecurity risks.
Increased geopolitical risks stemming from conflicts in the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine tensions, and structural competition between the U.S. and China are acknowledged. The current global situation is characterized by the highest number of volatile situations in decades, according to the UN. The year 2024 is anticipated to be the biggest election year in history, with the U.S. and Taiwan elections deemed particularly significant. Navigating this new world order requires holistic portfolio strategies that aim to both seize opportunities and mitigate risks, rather than focusing solely on avoiding risks or positioning for specific events.
Conclusion
Our core conviction is that investors need to be more dynamic with portfolios in the new regime. The outlook for 2024 suggests that investors should take a proactive stance, avoiding autopilot investing. The advice is to be intentional in managing portfolio risk, with an expectation of deploying more risk over the next year.
QQQ Retrenchment in Jan-Feb 2024Based on Fibonacci, I believe #QQQ could retrace to $383 - 385, seeking support at the 38% Fibonacci level. This level aligns with resistance points on July 23 and Sep 21. Personally, I don't anticipate a correction beyond the 38% Fibonacci, as the 61% is too low, and the rally seems strong.
Be cautious with Fibonacci levels:
- $393 - Fibonacci level 23.6%
- $383 - Fibonacci level 38%
While waiting, consider taking action. An option is to sell a PUT OPTION with a $383 strike in 30 days, collecting a $122 premium, essentially a pass-and-collect strategy.
QQQ Bye Bye Bye Miss America Pie QQQ BYE BYE 2024 waves 1 is equal to wave 5 from OCT 2022 low and have Now seen a clean 5 wave within 5 waves up from oct 2022 Wave B top from 2021 peak has ended the alt is 5 waves up of a super cycle last 5 in an extension But the market would have to drop to a .236 high to low oct 2022 to the high into the cycle and must last now more tha3.8 weeks otherwise BYE BYE BYE long term
Qs Losing SteamQQQ looks to be in the process of properly breaking its uptrend. If downside comes, I would expect heavy retracement as that would seem to be the market's feeling of this morning's CPI data.
QQQ - Short :( Good luck to everyone! This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Conduct your own analysis before making trading decisions.
A review on 2023 year for QQQ!The best trading year for QQQ ever:
Let's look at some statistics:
Of 249 trading days, only 141 (56.62%) were closed above the previous day's close!
Of 52 trading days, only 35 (67.30%) were closed above the previous week's close!
Now, you have a better understanding of Peter Lynch's quote:
“You're going to make mistakes. If you're terrific in this business you're right six times out of 10.”
This was the opposite of 2022 when QQQ sank 35% and only 133 days (53.2%)out of 250 closed below previous day! And 29 weeks (55.76%)out of 52 were closed below the previous weeks!
As you can see slight deviation from 50-50% can cause huge outcomes in market!
Forecast for 2024:
The most likely case is 10-20% on the upside while considering the possibility of the least likely case of a double top formation!
Note: everything is possible in market but it is important to know how likely is it going to happen???
Wish you all a happy new year full of profits.
QQQQQQ Nasdaq 100 Binary Fund is possible and very early, and if the rise is completed we will have 423 then 445
