IWM 5TH WAVE DIAGONAL HAS ENDED I now can label the rally as ENDED in the IWM . Most are looking at this rally as a break out I am worried if this breaks from here .If it does based on the P/C models we would break and it would be UGLY .
IWM trade ideas
IWM long 170 . add 162 can keep sl at 154 , we are back at June 2018 lets in this snoozefest of an index, maybe time to wake up when nothings in its favour ,
contra call
Cup and Handle + Channel breakoutThe Russel 2000 has been in a steady range between 162 and 200 since January 2022 – more than two years now.
The current situation presents some bullish signals. This is the 6th time it's touching the upper side of the range. Generally, more touches on one side of a channel increase the likelihood of a breakout in that direction. Additionally, a substantial cup and handle pattern has formed, and there's room for RSI to climb on the weekly chart.
Resistance: 217.33 (R1 Pivot)
Target Price: 233.16 (R2 Pivot)
Support Level: 189.28 (P Pivot)
It's essential to exercise caution though, especially if the broader market corrects, which seems likely in the mid-term. A broader market correction always impacts the Russel 2000 as well.
IWM Long Term PerspectiveIWM saw a very strong bounce with triple positive divergence.
After a very unhealthy rally in the last couple of weeks, we have seen IWM struggle to go green on the daily.
With the RSI extended like this we could tap the trend line one last time before the Fed pivots and we rally into 2024. Then Crash.
IWM is a great representative of the true economy rather then the mega caps who blur everything.
There was a very large triangle pattern that was broken on the down side, which I can definitely see moving further.
If the GREEN support line is broken, I will close out my trades.
Opening (IRA): IWM April 19th 176 Monied Covered Call... for a 171.23 debit.
Comments: Buying stock and selling the -75 call against to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta put. This setup gives me a slight bump in premium over selling the 25 delta put due to call IV skew, along with built-in position defense with the short call.
Laddering out over time after flattening out at the end of the year. I'll naturally look to add in shorter duration if I can get in at strikes/cost basis below what I currently have on, but will probably continue laddering out to the end of the second quarter (June) for a bit here.
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; look to roll out the short call to reduce cost basis further should price traverse the short call strike (since extrinsic is highest in at-the-money strikes).
IWM Russell put The Russel was propelled up last week by the companies within the index. Also the pattern it is forming signals that we may see the m formation play out. Or we may confirm a new trend upward of higher lows that is where TP1 is marked if we bounce there a new trendline with 3 touches is created.
IWM INVERSE HEAD & SHOULDERS CONTINUATONHere is IWM bouncing off of the 5ema while also in the process of confirming an Daily inverse head and shoulders pattern. The inverse head and shoulders will be confirmed once price breaks 199.53 and this could give IWM a chance for continuation to $205+.
IWM BreakoutIWM brokeout on friday. Pull backs = BTFD. MACD and RSI curling. Small caps have been heating up and the run starts now. Lots of room for upside in sentiment and oscillators. RISK ON.
$IWM pump and dump?AMEX:IWM bulls need to step up if we want to get it back to $205 level and continue on upward if not we'll fall back to $196 then later eventually leading back to lows 160s. NASDAQ:NVDA earnings will factor along with CPI / OPEX ahead.
Opening (IRA): IWM March 15th 183 Monied Covered Call... for a 179.87 debit.
Comments: Doing another one of these in March with a short call strike and cost basis better than what I currently have on at the 186.
Selling the -75 delta call, buying a Johnny one lot to emulate a 25 delta short put in order to take advantage of call side IV skew.
3.13 max profit on BPE of 179.87; 1.74% ROC at max; .87% at 50% max.
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max/roll out the short call to reduce cost basis further in the event price breaks the short call.
Opening (IRA): IWM March 15th 186 Monied Covered Call... for a 181.70 debit.
Comments: Buying stock and selling the -75 call again to emulate a 25 delta short put that is "defense ready" via roll of the short call.
4.30 ($430) max on buying power effect of 181.70; 2.37% ROC at max; 1.18% at 50% max.
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max and/or roll out the short call on price's traverse of the short call strike to reduce cost basis further.
IWM - iShares Russell 2000 - About to Drop MoreI always say that Price will always follow the MFI so when you see a strong Divergence between the MFI and the Price Movement it's only a matter of time. I've shown my Price Point Expectations in the relatively near term though it generally doesn't move too quickly.
Similar formation?Very similar formation on the 15 minute chart.
Interested to see what will happen.
$IWM at Inflection PointEarly next week important inflection point as the rest of the market decides if its ready to join mega/large caps or flop. AMEX:IWM
$IWM: Topping out at top end of channelThis is a follow-up from my AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ note:-
-> Classic top out with MACD peaking at +2.5x standard deviation and accumulated volume topping out at +3.5x standard deviation.
-> Very likely witnessing a lower high forming at 0.618x fibonacci retracement.
IWM Channel BreakoutIWM is trying to break back out of the channel it's been in since April 2022. It broke out briefly in late December, but was rejected. This second breakout attempt looks promising, and usually leads to ATH after this much consolidation. Lots of earnings reports this week, but if the market holds up, small caps should have some room to run.
$IWM Weekly Chart Bear FlagIf this pattern fails, best moves come from failed moves. The technical analysis for AMEX:IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) on the weekly chart indicates the formation of a bear flag pattern. In technical analysis, a bear flag pattern typically appears as a downward-sloping channel or rectangle on a price chart. It forms after a significant downward price movement, followed by a period of consolidation characterized by lower highs and lower lows. This pattern suggests that the downward trend may continue, with the potential for further price declines. Traders often interpret a bear flag as a signal to sell or short the asset in anticipation of further downside movement.
IWM: 4 Hour Bull Flag targeting Top of Ascending ChannelThe IWM(Russel 2000 ETF) is consolidating in what looks to be a Bull Flag and if it breaks out the target would take us to the top of the macro Ascending Channel which would take us to the resistance zone of $200-$210. If I had to guess I'd say IWM could likely make its way up to that level by the end of next week.
Gap & Go to $200 perhaps?If we hold this gap area, I'm willing to bet that we might make it to $200. I just saw what NFLX is doing for earnings despite okay #s. Looking fwd to seeing what tomorrow brings. 0
*IWM = small caps (stockanalysis.com)
**TSLA earnings after hours 1/24/24 - i remember when TSLA didn't participate in a rally post COVID. When ready to rip, it will rip!!!
💡 $357 profit with 72% PoP STRANGLE - #1 trade in my challangeTrade Overview:
Initiated my first options trade for the annual challenge on January 2nd with an IWM strangle. Observing high IVR in the index, I capitalized on the recent VIX spike to enter the 45DTE 212/188 strangle for 3.57cr.
Trade Management:
Rolling Strategy: Will roll legs as needed before expiration if price diverges.
Loss Management: With a FWB:12K account, I'm capping floating loss at $200.
Closing Strategy: Targeting to close around 21DTE.
Trade Details:
Symbol: IWM
Option Type: Strangle 45DTE
Entry Date: January 2, 2024
Entry Price: 3.57cr
Required BP: $1681
Max Profit: $357 (20% of capital)
PoP: 72%
Positions:
IWM Feb 16, 2024 212.00 CALL - Sell | Price: 1.76 | Qty: 1 | R. PnL: 0 | Commission: 1.251 | Fees: 0
IWM Feb 16, 2024 188.00 PUT - Sell | Price: 1.81 | Qty: 1 | R. PnL: 0 | Commission: 1.2511 | Fees: 0
Key Metrics:
Tasty IVR: 42 (High)
Breakevens: 184/215
