We've waited almost a year for this setup, time to buyIt's been a long wait for this consolidation to break... and it finally has. Risk on sentiment around the market, underweight institutional asset managers... time for small caps to fly!
IWM trade ideas
$IWMBroke out of 10months long base, looking good to add long, of at all it retest 233-234 back will take long position
9 Month Consolidation is over -Bull Run Coming9 Month Consolidation is over -Bull Run Coming, Buy TNA
Market Maker Sweet Spot CalculationsIWM Market Maker Sweet Spot Calculations
NOVEMBER 2, 2021
How do we get to the Sweet Spot
Derived from the amount of OPEN INTERESTS multiplied with 100 shares per contract times mid price gives us a good estimate what money is at stake and where the Market Maker will make the most money, or better said will lose the least! This is the spot where the market maker wants to be every Friday when there is Option Payday.
The further text will not fit here since this introducing broker has no money to implement a nice editor or allows content provider to publish content without paying. Also for violating their rules some of my blogs got hidden. You will find me on Twatter.
Will it break?It will be interesting to see if the Russel can hold this level and move up to the next price target I have here, or move back down to support.
IWM - Do the shorts hold or cover? - For seven and a half months now, the small cap index has been rangebound between 2350s and 2080s
- In the futures market, non-commercials are heavily net short Russell 2000 mini-index futures. As of last Tuesday, they were sitting on 54,431 net shorts
- If small-cap bulls manage a breakout, the likelihood of non-commercials covering their shorts is decent – particularly considering the seasonality factor. The only thing is, there is still two months left before the year is out. So, it is equally possible stocks take a breather, suffer a mild selloff, hold support and then take off for a year-end rally. In this scenario, how far the rally goes will have a lot to do with if shorts give up or stay put
- Dow Jones Transport is breaking out today up nearly 11% at the time of publish, Small Caps often follow Transports.
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$IWM - Breakout with continuationIWM finally broke out yesterday after a year of consolidation. We could see a retest of the breakout but ultimately it was a nice signal with follow through today. You can also use actively managed funds to get access without as much risk as an individual company name. There are many great mutual fund/ETF funds that I personally like and have been/will be using in client accounts. New 52 Week high was also reached today which helps to confirm breakout. If you want to add a stop loss around the $225-230 area in case this is a false breakout, it would make sense. The measured move is $280+ and I am looking for $300+. Good luck to you!
IWMWe might see a new run in IWM should it break this trading range. Break to the upside supported by the shortfall.
IWMIWM looking very good. Can it finally breakout? A close above 234.42 will easily take IWM to 261 range.
IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF small capSeasonality November-December
The iShares Russell 2000 ETF composed of small-capitalization equities.
PLAN: Wait for conformation on a back test of the breakout of all time high. Target 260
Dividend 12/13
Top 10 Holdings - total weight 3.33
AMC ~ 0.6
CROX
OW
TTEK
LSCC
NTLA
CAR
SLAB
SAIA
Small caps are waking up! Knocking on all-time highs door.After nearly 9 months of consolidation we're seeing the Russell 2000 wake up here into the end of the year while volume picks up. Keep an eye on this weekly close for breakout confirmation.
$IWM Going to send it.Symmetrical triangle with a large consolidation base. All VWAPs and EMA clouds are under and supporting price. Current price is starting to emerge out of volume profile as well. Should be a good rally although macros like these tend to be multi-month holds at a minimum to play out well.
IWM small caps at a wallReally strong today , At resistance with ATH right around d the corner at 234.50..
I'd be careful here long on some of those mid - small cap names
I'm trading a small short position here with a stop at 235
IWM 10 Month Range @ 14' TL
IWM Russell 2000 ETF, consolidating for 10 months, supported by the 2014 Diagonal Trendline. Entering the Seasonal strong next months.
IWM Close to Breaking OutWe are close to a breakout in the IWM mid/small cap index, which could produce a low risk, high probability trading setup by taking the index long Vs. 223-ish. Nice simple trade here out of consolidation.
$IWM - dip and then ripHey guys
Here is my IWM count. As I have tweeted about all week, I favor IWM tagging lower 220ish area before ripping. It failed the attempted break out and now we are putting in a 3 wave move to the downside. The 100 extension lines up perfectly with the 61.8 retracement, so that is my target zone for the bottom. After that, full steam ahead.
I would be buying this one, with time, on all dips.
Again - I consider this to be the bear count (not going to post some dooms day BS, go find that elsewhere). The bull count to me is that we dont go tag any lower and we already had wave 2 bottom this week. But IWM was weak to finish off trading last week, so that is unlikely IMO
Opening: IWM December 17th 207/242 Short Strangle... for a 3.09 credit.
Comments: Short strangling the highest implied volatility broad market ETF on the board in the expiry nearest 45 days until expiry by selling the 16 delta strikes on both sides. 3.07 on buying power effect of 31.32 on margin; 9.8% ROC as a function of buying power effect. Will look to take profit at 50% max; manage sides on approaching worthless or on side test.
Russell 2000 to Fall on the Window
Technicals:
(1) Looking for the Russell 2000 to Fall on the Window or "fill the gap" (which I do not believe is necessary for a financial instrument to do). A window is just potential support that does not need to be filled.
(2) "golden ratio @ 222.48. to 222.23 (BUY WATCH area)
(3) Pennant/Triangle-looking pattern on a pole suggests that the bullish trend continues. Comment: keep in mind that patterns can break. Any new data point or cataclysmic event can blow this entire pattern away and distort what financial markets are attempting to achieve. If some dire event occurs that effects the price chart; then, there is support far away at 180.
IWM - When I Dip You Dip We DipIWM has been pretty rangebound as of late, and it looks like its going to bounce down to around 219 or so.
Yesterday we saw IWM bounce of the upper Bollinger Band.
The MACD hasn't turned bearish yet, but should confirm a downward trend today.
The Stochastic is showing downward pressure.
This is not to say that IWM is expected to crash, but it may be a good idea to sell some calls.
IWM SELLOFF IS SET UP The market as a whole is now set to roll over rather sharp . Only long now is FB . we are now in the area within the sp 500 to see a rather large top as I have said 4460 to 4617 focus 4607 at each rally the bulls are now in a bull trap . . oil has one last pop and a crash in oil is set with ALL inflated assets
$IWM - getting close!IWM has been in consolidation since the beginning of the year creating a beautiful flag. The longer a stock or index is in a specific range, the stronger the move can be to the upside. There have been many people talking about how the SPY, QQQ, and DIA have all broken out to new ATH but the IWM has lagged. There are many reasons for this including seasonality. Small/mid cap season is typically November through March. The other speculation is that if the IWM does not break out, it means were heading for a recession. Remember markets do not enter a recession just because. There is usually an unforeseen event that drives fear into the markets and causes a sell off.
If this breaks through $232-234 range and into new ATHs, the measured move is close to $300 on the IWM. I will be very pleased with this trade if it "only" reaches $280. Easy and safe play here would be to buy around $233-234 with a $230 stop. You can drop that further if your risk tolerance is higher. $275 would be a good place since there could easily be a retest of the $232 breakout and I could see it reaching $230 to wipe out stops before resuming higher. 1-3% downside risk with 20% (roughly) upside potential over next few months.
Good luck and as always this is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is intended for information purposes only.
IWMIWM is in a rising channel. A break above 229.84 can easily take the price to top of the channel within day or two.
