IWM trade ideas
$IWM — Potential H&S forming on the 1hr We can either go lower to fill that open gap right off the bat...
or
We're going to go a bit higher to form the second shoulder, creating the H&S with a downside target of $193...
Either way, that gap is filling — not sure if it will today, but likely for next week and for certain before March's 3rd Friday.
The StochasticSlow is looking overbought, and the CCI is hinging lower just under that momentum line — bad sign for the bulls, if you ask me.
IWM Breaking DownA little late to post this but looking for a short term drop to at least 188ish. The really basic TA on wedge breakouts has been working well on the indexes lately.
IWM LONG 199.50.Look daily chart higher lows holding its lows can pull back 197. In small shares. Daily stoch heading down so that is why I am in small with trailing stop.
Look weekly holding crossed I am earlier
Target 210 214 area. The 50 day or try that top 214.
I believe this will run first and as u can see it is with higher lows
It is in still a severe down trend and it is only short term buy
www.screencast.com
IWM; Bounced from MEGAPHONE top… & is that a DIAMOND?IWM, IYT may be the market leaders in case the indices reverse back to uptrend with QQQ & XLK the laggards.
It recently fell out of the year-long consolidation box 208 to 234 with a lot of whipsaw along the median line 220. It fell & stop exactly at the top of the green Megaphone. (There are 2)
Although there is still a risk of falling to the impt FIBONACCI zones. (See the 2 red boxes below), I think very soon it will reversed back into the 208-234 BOX… specially if what it formed recently was indeed a diamond reversaL
Not trading advice.
IWM weekly supply and demand zone Weekly demand& supply zones :
Zone 1 : 186/187-200-210
Zone 2 : 210-226/230-240
Rolling: IWM March 18th 199 Short Straddle to April 1st 201... for a 2.34 credit.
Comments: Locking in some realized gains (.72/$72) here by rolling out a smidge early to at-the-money with 28 days to go. Total credits collected of 15.14 relative to the April 1st 201 short straddle price of 16.07, so still a little underwater at the moment.
Wyckoff Distribution + InflationThe IWM has completed It's classic Wyckoff Distribution and we are now at Phase E. The target is 170-169 where we have found support.
This is a warning for the entire Stock Market to abandon ship while you still can.
The IVM is the Titanic and has hit the ICEBERG. We don't have enough boats to save everyone. People will be left on the ship stuck at all time highs holding the bags.
"The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists."
Ernest Hemingway
This post is not Financial Advise.
IWM is going down and taking the SPY with it!From what I see is utilizing the fib retracement from the 2020 low to the top of you can see great support and resistance . Ironically looks like it's going to flirt with the 0.618 fib retracement level. IWM is on it's way down and I see it filling the gaps that I circled. Along the way the SPY is mimicking the movement of IWM , so I see more downside for SPY as well. I'm waiting to deploy my money around the 155 zone for IWM . I will watch for a bottoming for SPY around that time as well. If you're able to utilize puts this could be a good idea. I'm in the TSP so that is not an option for me currently. I'm in the G fund awaiting the best time to enter. Good luck all!
Russell 2000 (IWM) Head and Shoulders Suggests More DownsideA head-and-shoulders (H+S) pattern in the IWM suggests more downside.
A while back I posted about the downward breakout from a nearly 12 month trading range in IWM. At the time, I had not seen the H+S pattern that had formed. The breakout (violation of the neckline) in the H+S pattern occurred several days after the downward breakout of the trend channel.
@CMT_Association posted recently with excellent Fibonacci and P&F analysis providing credible targets / objectives to the downside. His post also pointed out IWM's relative strength versus SPX. IWM has been relatively the weakest major index in the US the past year.
To add support to the downside targets discussed by @CMT_Association, I would note that one measuring objective for a H+S pattern is to calculate the maximum depth from the head of the H+S pattern to the neckline and project that distance from the breakout point. This method yields a target of approximately 174-175 in the IWM (ETF tracking Russell 2000). This 174-175 target based on the H+S pattern, interestingly, lies between the two Fibonacci retracements discussed by Stewart in his recent insightful post, which were 169.52 (.50) and 186.90 (.382).
Rolling: IWM March 11th 199 Short Straddle to March 25th 201... for a 2.95 credit.
Comments: Rolling for a small realized gain here at 21 days until expiry. I've collected a total of 15.05 in credits relative to the current March 25th 201 short straddle price of 15.46, so the position is still a smidge underwater. Current break evens: 185.54 on the put side, 216.46 on the call.
$IWM LevelsBREAKOUT
🐂 $202.12
🐻$200.85
🐂 PTs
$203.51
$204.58
$205.69
$207.20
$208.94
🐻 PTs
$200.23
$198.79
$197.43
$196.28
Could be really fun to watch this drop below $200 again for a nice dip to 190/193
Opened (IRA): IWM April 1st 175 Short Put... for a 1.98 credit.
Comments: Selling premium in the broad market exchange-traded fund having the highest 30-day on the board, targeting the strike in the shortest duration contract of 45 days or longer that pays at least 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market. I usually do this on Fridays, but if it's gonna dump on a Thursday ... .
$IWM - Bear flag break down closeIWM has been forming this bear flag over the last couple weeks. This looks picture perfect with the IWM showing a beautiful gap back at $165ish. Great time to sell some calls, buy puts, or just drop them. Markets could rally but they look ready to drop another 10-15%. Raise cash and be ready to buy when blood is in the streets!
IWMDaily Ideas
IWM forming a potential bear flag. If it break down then it is most likely going to test the low of 188. If it breaks above the 208 resistance that will be a sign of bullish reversal.
Expect more downsideEvery time IWM goes sideways for some time it break to the downside. It has this bad tendency to do that. Also lot of bad stuff going around now in the world. I expect a retest and then more downside.
$IWM LevelsBREAKOUT
$206.15🐂
$205.45🐻
RESISTANCE
$206.96
$208.29
$209.21
$210.40
SUPPORT
$204.47
$203.39
$202.33
$201.28
Looking to cover the gap later today and into tomorrow. Although showing strength with higher lows, there is no evidence to indicate a climb higher
$IWM LevelsGap up clear here, this is a hair below my support/resistance for this area. I believe that there could a tap here and move to test the high....no updated levels here. still layer four from youtube video
Distribution or Re-Accumulation for IWM?Are we witnessing accumulation in IWM before another leg higher or is this is the start of the distribution phase?
I am thinking distribution after the failed breakout at the top of the range and now a rejection at the bottom of the range after the throwback.
What happens after double top rally in markets?I am using index ETFs here since I use them for option trades and they are so widely traded. Study DIA, SPY, and QQQ and note the double top similarity as it corresponds to RSI. DIA and SPY were a little stronger in that RSI showed a double top above 50. QQQ had an earlier 20 below 200 ma cross, so it is weaker and its RSI did a double retest of 50. Friday's candle broke the lows on these three charts and technically triggered more downside.
However, in this anything can happen market, there is a possibility that this Friday-Monday pullback results in another move higher before making new lows. For trading, this means be patient and do not over-commit to one direction. You can start a smaller swing position and add more puts when you have more confidence in the trade.
Also, though not shown here, stochastic %K has given a sell warning on the daily chart. The candles from 9-11 Feb moved %K from above 80 to below 20. Sometimes more downside follows immediately, while more often there is a price bounce up first as %D is still making its way lower. I cannot predict which will happen but I know to be on the lookout for a reason to buy puts.
I want to discuss IWM separately, as it does not have the same double top formation on RSI and price. IWM is more bearish, as 20sma crossed below 200 earlier, and so this chart is weaker. When you look at its weekly chart and indicators, you may want to buy swing puts.
Swing puts near 200 - One year range adds weight to sellingIf markets broadly sell off again, IWM can fill the gap down in the yellow band. In general, the longer price stays rangebound, the greater the move when that range breaks.
100% distribution IWM is in the final phase of a wyckoff distribution cycle.
Its pretty obvious to where this is heading, and where we get our bounce. ( green trend line )
but before we get there, i see a quick little drop to the high 180s (186 to 188) then a little run to retest that downward resistance and then that is when we will get our bounce on the green trend line.
which also lines up to where a distribution cycle would end... ( where the last accumulation ended)
plus its time they remove the covid band-aid
price target 160 to 170... but end of March.
Good luck.
