SHORT | IWM | FED Meeting UpdateAMEX:IWM
Possible Scenario: SHORT
Evidence: Bearish Divergence, Price Action, Money Flow
Timeframe: Before FED meeting in March.
TP: 178$
*This is my idea and could be wrong 100%
IWM trade ideas
Pig Market: Why IDC about the CPI8.5 prior
8.1 expected
8.24 cleveland fed estimate
??? actual
Everyone is going crazy about this CPI data like its gonna change anything. We already know inflation has peaked and will start to decline. It's doing that because the economy is slowing. The fed is still hiking and the inflation isn't going to go away fast enough for a soft landing. The markets may adjust to the data tomorrow, but it's not going to change our destiny: a recession by end of year.
Find the next peak, sell it, or short it. This moon mission is cancelled and you'll be stranded in space.
IWM: Monthly outlook (September)Thought I would share my analysis on IWM. Not a lot of ideas get posted on IWM and its kind of an under-rated stock.
I scaled in short today before close (with TZA). Expecting this to be a bit early with CPI. I have a feeling the market wants to rally with CPI. The reason being is that the first projected monthly high for IWM is 194 (green line on the chart). There is roughly a 50% chance we see this high this month.
The monthly low is 176.56 and the odds we hit that are incredibly high.
INCREDIBLY.
HIGH.
So I am ideally swinging to this level. I am kind of hoping this is able to rally up to 194. This would be a clear area to go fairly heavy short. Whether it gets there, not sure. The market overall is quite overbought with this counter-trend rally. It really, I think, hinges on the CPI results.
For the end of the month, IWM is looking to close below 187. So this makes me rest assured in my TZA position... for now.
Anyway, that's it. Very brief and to the point post.
Let me know your thoughts!
Trade safe everyone!
Rolled (IRA): IWM October 1st 161 to the November 18th 163... short put for a 1.10 credit.
Comments (Late Post): Rolled this out at >50% max to the strike in November paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. I might usually just take profit and close this out, but still need small cap long delta for a bit here while I manage my IWM short delta hedge. Total credits collected of 1.62 (See Post Below) plus the 1.10 here for a total of 2.72 relative to a price for the November 18th 163 of 1.71, so I've realized gains of 1.01 ($101) to date.
IWM THESIS SET 12.9.22CPI coming out pre market tomorrow. Catalyst will activate one of these scenarios potentially.
IWM short play and double top forming 9.9.22IWM will rebound off a zone and create a double top. The trade is buying and swinging puts, then trailing stop as the market dips next week with CPI #'s
Closed (IRA): IWM October 21st 158 Short Put... for a .73 debit.
Comments: Opened this for a 1.59 credit. (See Post Below). Out here at a smidge greater than 50% max. .86/$86 profit.
IWM play pre 9/16 '22 MAX PAIN THEORY 3:1 P/c ratioMM manipulate the market Bullish for the 9/16 options cycle to expire. 3:1 P/C RATIO on IWM.
$IWM beautiful set up!!! This is absolutely beautiful. Bull flag down to support but also was a gap back fill. Elliott Wave is fully in effect 12345ABC pattern. Bounce at support line from the bull flag. Insane how everyone is so bearish on tv though. There are concerns such as the $DXY going higher, mid terms, fed raising rates faster than expect, geopolitics and others which could push prices lower easily. Also oil has gotten a tail whooping this week which could’ve helped boost equities.
IWM daily gap and go that didn't goIWM daily gap and go that didn't go. strong selling. I think we are going lower.
IWM Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: let's review the key points of published IWM update of August 20th:
The correction started from ATH is a wave 2.
So far, we have completed 2 zigzags of wave 2 and a third zigzag is about to come later this year.
Now, I believe that wave (X) top is in.
Update: I just need to publish the hourly chart to see how accurate was our previous prediction:
We are in wave c of 3 of A of (Z) of 2.
Levels to Watch:
1) Based on the volume profile of wave (X):
2) Based on support/resistance levels:
Opened (IRA): IWM October 21st 158 Short Put... for a 1.59 credit.
Comments: Late post ... . I think I missed this one in "The Friday Frenzy." Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into small caps.
IWM shortMonthly shows a beautiful hammer, however double bottom neck retest is close and may bounce up from there. Therefore, had to move my stop close.
Probably, will consolidate around bottleneck retest and make its decision there.
Ready to flip and go long into wave 5 of uptrend if confirms.
SMALL CAPS: Russell 2000 (IWM ETF)The ETF has shifted below it's prior demand-supply zone with the price trending toward it's 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone. The 61.8% is also just above the previous breakout level seen on 20 July.
7-day Regime = Very Weak, Approaching 'Near Oversold'
14-day Regime = Weak
IWM hourly EW count IWM looks like it's at the end of wave 4 here. Getting very close to the high of wave 1. Entry long here provides good risk/reward. Stop below invalidation
Opened (IRA): IWM October 21st 161 Short Put... for a 1.62 credit.
Comments: Targeting the <16 delta strike in the shortest duration expiry paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market.
[Analysis] Russell 2000 , the crucial retestSmall caps are often the early risk on/off indicators. They are the first to rally during an economic expansion period, they are the first to dive are economic condition becomes more restrictive.
190 is a very crucial level for the Russell 2000. It act as a key support level in Feb 2022 and became the resistance in May/June 2022.
As Fed Pivot euphoria is slowing down, recession worries are becoming a bigger concern. Whether this current rally is a one-time wonder or the beginning of a bull market will be dependent on if the 190 level can hold.
Good News: The downtrend line is broken
Bad News: We have yet to see a higher low. This could also be the end of the recovery B Wave on a bigger downtrend
Unlike 2020 convid19, 2022's carnage is a systematic downtrend that is led by Federal Reserve's Policy (and their mistakes). As such, this bear market can and will be more drawn out.
If 190 is broken, 170 is the next support level.
Look out for Jerome Powell's statement during Jackson Hole's symposium.
IWM Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisIn this post, I am going to do a harmonic Elliott wave analysis of IWM .
I see IWM from 2000 to ATH of 2021 as a wave 1 and the correction started from ATH is a wave 2. So far, we have completed 2 zigzags ((W) and (Y)) of wave 2 and a third zigzag is about to come later this year. Note the main reasons I believe wave (Z) is coming:
1) Based on my view and count on ES;
2) The fact that the retracement of wave 2 so far has not been deep enough for a wave 2.
It is completely possible that wave 2 bottom is in since the bottom was almost perfectly on a fib retracement: the 0.382 retracement of wave 1 is 163.41 and wave (Y) bottom was 162.78!!
Now, I believe that wave (X) top is in. Regarding the fib retracement of wave (Y) on the daily chart , the 0.786 retracement was at 201.66 and high of wave (X) which occurred on August 16th 2022 was 201.99! Now let's look at the hourly chart of wave (X):
It can be seen that the structure of wave (X) is complete as a triple zigzag and the bullish channel is broken to the downside.
Opening (IRA): IWM July 15th 165/November 18th 200 LPD*... for a 29.95/contract debit.
Comments: Erecting a short delta hedge specifically against my IWM longs here, tailored to my specific delta needs, so I've gone with selling the front month 50 and buying the back month 90 for -40 or so delta per contract. (The math just worked out better with multiples of -40 versus multiples of -60; call me delta anal). I've already done a little bit of portfolio-wide SPY beta-weighted delta hedging here using SPY, but wanted to flatten out net delta a smidge further, particularly in my IWM position.
170.05 break even, paying 29.95 on a 35 wide with a max profit potential of 5.05 ($505)/contract.
Generally speaking, you want to address delta imbalances on an instrument by instrument basis first and then look at your portfolio-wide net delta to see if anything additional needs to be done (usually via a broad market, SPY beta-weighted short delta hedge). To a certain extent, this is why you always want to keep some dry powder around -- to adjust your delta on either a per-position or a portfolio-wide basis, some of which may or may not be buying power free.
* -- Long put diagonal.
Opened (IRA): IWM October 21st 170 Short Put... for a 1.78 credit.
Comments: Targeting the <16 strike in the shortest duration paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. This is more of "I need small cap long delta" than "this is a really great place to put on small cap long delta" trade, so probably not the best entry point to do this, although we're getting a little bit of weakness here today.
IWMFirst index to break RSI daily trend line. MACD hasn't rolled over yet on daily or weekly. Weekly RSI getting rejected on breakout from last week. Weekly AVWAP getting rejected. Most likely will come down for a lower high before pushing higher if it does. More likely to take out the lows first though. Depends on what the charts give in the coming weeks.
