BTC heads up into 105k: Genesis+Covid fib pair major resistanceBTC is up against a serious resistance zone.
Golden Covid fib makes the lower boundary.
Semi-major Genesis fib for upper boundary.
BULLUSD trade ideas
BTC A Line of CodeBTC A line of code that costs $107,000 American dollars.
All I see is exuberance and the same jeering and laughing emojis
when I mentioned TSLA was too expensive in other forums.
The same mood. The same hubris. A line of code costs 107k.
It was going to change the world, my coder friends said to me.
It changed nothing, just a new "hype." And those come every 10 years or so.
Good luck everyone.
BITCOIN Will the Channel Up hold or has the Fed condemned it?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is having an impressive sustainable price action within the Channel Up pattern since November 12, which despite yesterday's Fed fueled pull-back, is still holding. If it holds, it may follow the same pattern that it did exactly 1 year ago.
As you see, it was again in November 2023 that it traded within a Channel Up, which was supported by the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) since October 11. After it broke out, the price reached the 7.0 Fibonacci extension level from the October low, before correcting again.
The situation is very similar today, the 4H MA200 is also holding since Oct 11, the price also formed a 4H Golden Cross on Sep 18, while both fractals started their impressive rallies around the same date (Sep 06 2023 and Sep 11 2024 respectively).
As a result, if the 4H MA200 holds, we can expect BTC to target the 7.0 Fib ext next at $135000.
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Bitcoin Outlook after the Dip. What to expect NOW?if Bitcoin cannot hold the $130,000 range, the price could drop to around $100,000 or even lower. After that, it can continue its growth again.
Give me some energy !!
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✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
BITCOIN The three Expansion Phases of the Cycle.We have talked about Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hitting the $100k Target on numerous analyses and one of those was almost 4 months ago (August 26, see chart below), where we introduced the 2-year Channel Up, which has been the dominant pattern since the very beginning of the new Bull Cycle:
That piece of analysis was on the 1M time-frame but today we will examine it from the 1W perspective as the horizon narrows. We have made some slight modifications and the one that stands out is that we've classified it on Expansion Phases.
The key characteristic of those was the mid-Phase consolidation, which on the previous 2 took place within the 0.382 - 0.5 Fibonacci range, while the 1W RSI also turned sideways for the first time since the Channel Up bottomed.
With this marker, the consolidation phase is easily identifiable and according to it, we are currently on once. As a result, we can assume that we are within the 0.382 - 0.5 Fib range of Expansion Phase 3. This indicates that there is still plenty of room to rise. Based on that, a $150k Target is technically plausible before Summer.
So do you expect to reach 150000 so fast, if we do at all during this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin (BTC): Daily Liquidity Grab (New ATH Formed)On a daily timeframe, we had a quick liquidity grab at the beginning of the day, where price formed a new ATH near $106.5K.
We are not seeing some kind of weakness kicking in on even smaller timeframes where there is a possibility to form an MSB, which might shift the price back near $95K.
So our gameplan remains the same; we keep an eye out for more confirmations, and we are not rushing into the trading.
If we do not see the price to reach our entry zone for downward movement, then, as we mentioned on the weekly timeframe, we might see $140K earlier than we thought!!
Swallow Team
Come back in 2 years...Top is in or damn close here...people speculating now are asking for a spanking in markets...expecting a slow grind down to 40k levels over the next couple years...could be much worse though gl.
BITCOIN // primary expansionTrends are bullish on every major timeframe, and the countertrend may break, triggered above the H4 breakdown.
If triggered, my target is 106k.
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Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼♂️
Your comments and support are appreciated! 👊🏼
What does bearish divergence look like? You're looking at it!If this thing breaks out, I would be hella surprised! Not going to lie.
If this isn't textbook bearish divergence, then I must be cross-eyed.
Retail is buying at these high prices, so we must wait patiently until they are exhausted. I am pretty sure institutional investors will not buy at these prices.
Let me know what you think?
BTC\USD Ascending Broadening Wedge FALL ALERTIn this idea we have a ascending broadening wedge On Bitcoin that really matches the behavior we have witnessed recently. I did my best to project the targets we should see as we break out to the downside assuming that is how this moves. Maybe it will maybe it won't. Only time will tell. Good luck to everyone and much love- ND
Ps-If you look at the formation in smaller frames where we are now you will see the exact formation that is towards the end of the example.
BTC Analysis On H4 T.FBitcoin Price Analysis: A Selling Opportunity Amidst Market Volatility
The Bitcoin price has been moving within an upward parallel channel, characterized by inclined support and resistance lines. Notably, the trend has reversed three times from the support line and twice from the resistance line.
Currently, the trend is testing the resistance line, where we anticipate a reversal. Following this, we expect the price to move towards the support line.
(News Impact on Bitcoin Market)
The current market volatility, fueled by rising regulatory concerns, adoption rates, and global economic uncertainty, has created a favorable environment for a potential Bitcoin price drop. Recent news and events that may impact the Bitcoin market include:
1. Regulatory developments and their potential impact on Bitcoin's price.
2. Changes in adoption rates and their effect on market sentiment.
3. Global economic uncertainty and its influence on safe-haven assets.
Trade Setup:
Based on our technical analysis and news impact, we recommend opening sell positions in Bitcoin.
1. Entry: Sell Bitcoin at 106000-107500
2. Stop Loss: 109500 (above the resistance line)
3. Target Prices:
1. 104000 (T.P1)
2. 102000 (T.P2)
3. 100000 (T.P3)
4. 98000 (T.P4, final target near the support line)
This trade setup offers a potential profit of 8000 points, with a risk of 1500 points. We believe that the current market conditions and news impact make this an attractive selling opportunity for Bitcoin.
BTC Bleeding - When Bottom?Bitcoin is in a corrective phase following a sharp rally, with the $92,000 50-day SMA acting as the first critical support zone. A break below this could lead to further downside toward $89,000 or $73,835. To regain bullish momentum, Bitcoin needs to reclaim $99,860, targeting $108,300 and higher. Keep an eye on the RSI and volume for confirmation of the next move.
Key Observations:
Recent Price Action:
Bitcoin recently reached a high of approximately $108,300, marking the peak of the current rally.
Following the high, BTC has experienced a sharp pullback, breaking below the $99,860 support level and currently trading near $93,569.
The pullback reflects a correction of approximately 14% from the peak.
Bearish Divergence on RSI:
RSI Divergence: While price made a higher high at $108,300, RSI formed a lower high, signaling a loss of bullish momentum.
RSI is now trending below 50, confirming bearish short-term momentum.
RSI will eventually make it to oversold, but that could be far down the road. Still worth noting that it is only at 40, so there could be a long way to go if the correction continues.
Key Support Levels:
$92,000: Immediate support around the 50-day SMA, which aligns with a consolidation zone during the earlier stages of the rally.
$89,000: A secondary potential support just below the 50-day SMA.
$73,835: Major breakout level from the prior range and a strong support zone if the correction deepens.
Key Resistance Levels:
$99,860: This level, previously a support, has flipped to resistance following the breakdown.
$108,300: Recent high and critical resistance, acting as the upper boundary for potential continuation.
Volume:
The recent sell-off has occurred on elevated volume, confirming active selling and validating the correction.
Moving Averages:
The 50-day SMA (blue line) is currently around $92,000, providing immediate dynamic support.
The 200-day SMA (red line) sits significantly lower, near $72,000, reinforcing long-term bullish structure.
Interpretation:
Bearish Signals:
The bearish divergence on RSI has played out, leading to the breakdown below $99,860.
Price is testing the 50-day SMA at $92,000, a key short-term support zone.
Support Zones to Watch:
$92,000 (50-day SMA): Critical for maintaining the short-term bullish trend. A strong bounce here would be encouraging.
$73,835: Long-term support level, aligning with the breakout zone from earlier in 2024. A breakdown to this level would still preserve the macro bullish structure.
Potential for Reversal:
To resume its uptrend, Bitcoin must reclaim $99,860 and hold above it. A strong bounce from the 50-day SMA would reinforce bullish sentiment.
Scenarios:
Bullish Case:
Bitcoin holds the 50-day SMA at $92,000, forms a higher low, and begins to climb back toward $99,860.
A reclaim of $99,860 with increasing volume would target a retest of the $108,300 high and potential continuation.
Bearish Case:
If Bitcoin fails to hold $92,000, the next logical support is around $89,000, followed by a deeper correction to $73,835, which would still align with the broader macro bullish structure.
Divergence - SHORT I am not perfect on explaining what is happening, but I am good in drawing my expectation.
in this expectation, I think there is a signal for Divergence from the tops which indicate price will revert to hard down, so keep in mind, Selling short period is about to happen.
and put in your mind, that the price sooner or later will come back to the main trend link ( the below white line)
so, BTC will go back again to the $60,000 again, and maybe less, you need to know the game, they drop the price with one click by selling a huge amount of BTC on their network, that's how they control the market, by selling and buying their exist BTC, they will never lose, this Satoshi Nakamato organization are like the CASINO, the house always wins. ;)
BEAT-COIN? (BTC PROBABLE MOVE)Alright, we seen expected price action movements to the downside (maybe not expected by some retailers Lol) and now there's a crazy number of questions being; one of it is where is it really going to end up before the new year? Well... I can't say for sure, I can only really predict the next price in short time.
In my chart above, I've marked out key infos; you can see the HTF point of interest taken from the 4H chart, where by candle wick; "price almost disrespected the fair value gap (had this happened by candle body, we would have an inversion gap that would be a support for a bullish move), but most encouraging (not for investors); price respected the 62%-79% fib levels which marked our O.T.E and it started dropping (potentially marking an end of the retracement move). But while I'm still a little skeptical about this vague movement all around, I moved over to the 15M timeframe for further forensics (Lol) as it may be beneficial to Currency, and perpetual traders. You would notice a liquidity sweep and if you draw a trendline liquidity from $92,149 up to the O.T.E level, you would see liquidity being taken out however you try to bend it; which may confirm our sentiment (but still not satisfied). I've marked out a key area in the chart that I expect should be broken, and if it is; we will have the market structure shift and look to take position. My next predicted price range is $95k - $89k.
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For perpetual traders, I may leave analysis either on BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P or BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P
BTCUSDT Elliott Waves (Local Expectations)Hello friends.
Please support my work by clicking the LIKE button👍(If you liked).
Everything on the chart.
Targets: 110 - 150 - 120k
after first target reached move ur stop to breakeven
ALWAYS follow ur RM
risk is justified
It's not financial advice.
DYOR!
1.61 Break Starting to Look Likely. BTC recently hit the 1.61 extension of the previous drop.
When this 1.61 is met in a breakout, there are three main things that tend to happen.
One is a reversal. Exceptional spikes ending at 1.61s can be found at the end of many trends. That would be a rare thing in this context, but it's always worth trailing stops at 1.61s.
A more common reaction at the 1.61 here is a pullback to spike under 1.27 and then the continuation move.
This was my first ever trade. For a long time I'd trade only this setup in Forex markets. Did really well in trends.. Range came. Sad times. Had to learn more stuff.
And the third thing that tends to happen in the featured chart here. If there's no notable resistance at 1.61, a very strong trend move to 2.20 comes. Usually from here we end up retesting the 1.61 or even 1.27, both of which are great buy levels.
I have a simple way of thinking about trading. There are various things the market can do that fit nicely inside of my "Norms" with fibs and such. When we're at big levels, I plan all the things that can happen inside my "Norms". Moves the market can make that my straits profit in - or at least stop me out in the right place. No spike outs, or unnecessary running losses.
In this setup I am ready to trade those three reactions. If any of them happen exactly as I described, I make bank. Many multiples of what I risk in a trade. If something else happens, my best outcome will be I do not trade, or any trades I do take I get some sort of breakeven result on. If the market does something I understand I hit it hard, and otherwise I just get out.
Given that 2/3 of my known reactions from a 1.61 are bearish (one of them just a dip, but a sizable one), I'll generally tend to fade 1.61s. 2/3 times it works. Can make over 1:3 RR. A lot of the time you get reactions off 1.61 before breaks and can maybe get risk off on shorts that'd not work out. Makes sense, takes a lot to discourage me from fading a 1.61 first touch.
Here's the hit of the 1.61.
Really big reaction off this. But in the bear setups here typically this retest off the 1.61 would be the kiss of death for the bull move.
Now, we have to have some tolerance for spike outs whenever we trade, and more so on stop hunting things like BTC. For the last couple days we've inside the tolerance zone for that.
This is starting to look more threatening for a legit break .
If the 1.61 is a non-event as resistance, the follow pop is impressive. Usually directly up to the 2.20. Around $140K.
BTC heads up at 97.8k: Genesis fib and Last Stop before 105kShown here is a single fib series in three different time frames.
The Genesis Sequence has caught every major turn since 2015.
This fib is a "minor" ratio but a big jump from Golden fib below.
$ 97,769.44 (Coinbase) is the exact level of concern.
It is PROBABLE that we see a pullback from it.
It is POSSIBLE that it marks 'a' top or even 'the' top.
It is PLAUSIBLE to orbit a few times and then continue.
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Bitcoin (BTC): Crypto Cycles / Are We In Bullish One?Well, the last time we took a bigger look at bitcoins cycles was exactly a year ago and so far almost everything has been playing out well; halving is done and we are in the beginning phase of the bullish market, as it seems.
But one thing concerns us: we did not have a proper reaccumulation phase on the coin, whereas we did have a proper expansion phase and a quick start of bullish market.
Now this seems a little bit off so we are keeping our curiosity at a possible quick liquidity movement to happen (due to lack of reaccumilation phase).
But keep in mind that every cycle is different and so is this one. Stay safe and don't be greedy!!
Swallow Team
My Best analysis Sell Setup:
Entry Point (Sell): 99,605
Take Profit (TP):
TP1: 98,173
TP2: 96,038
Stop Loss (SL): 100,981
Buy Setup:
Entry Point (Buy): 96,038
Take Profit (TP):
TP1: 98,173
TP2: 99,605
Stop Loss (SL): 94,000
Analysis:
1. The current market price is at 98,173, and there is a potential uptrend, with the price possibly reaching 102,293.
2. If the price breaks 99,605, a sell entry is expected.
3. A buy entry can be initiated near the strong support level of 96,038.
Bitcoin BEARISH 4 Hour Chart - Trend Line Support BrokeBitcoin has broke down through an important trend line support level on the 4 hour chart. It is currently in the process of re-testing the line before a continuation down again. It's possible that Bitcoin may gain short-term up to around $100000 before the re-testing is complete. Or it may just start falling like a rock before then.
The trend line was tested multiple times and is a reliable signal of what is to come. This also agrees with my analysis on the weekly chart too. Both charts indicate a potential drop for Bitcoin to around $75000.
Please note: this is a crazy world and anything could happen, but this is my analysis based solely on the chart. I would say the same if it were corn, copper, or whatever else. Be cautious buying Bitcoin anytime soon based solely on hype! As I said above, it could gain short term to re-test the line which is now resistance, but it will probably be short-lived.
BTCUSD Trading Opportunity! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for EUR/USD below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 97265
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 10074
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Has BITCOIN reached its maximum and is a bear market coming?To make a prediction about Bitcoin’s next rally based on historical patterns, we should first examine the overall trends and how these increases and decreases have evolved in percentage terms.
Data observations:
337,000% increase -> 93% decrease
Massive increase, followed by a steep correction.
61,000% increase -> 86% decrease
Significant increase, but smaller than the first, and the decline was still close in percentage terms.
11,000% increase -> 84% decrease
Smaller increase, the decline remains large, but slightly milder.
2,000% increase -> 77% decrease
Significantly smaller increase compared to previous cycles, and the decline continued to moderate.
Observing a descending pattern:
The increases seem to be getting smaller and smaller with each cycle, and the decreases also tend to be less severe. This shows diminishing returns on increases and a reduction in market volatility.
Estimate for the next increase:
Given this pattern, the next percentage increase could be significantly smaller than the last one (2,000%). If we apply a progressive reduction coefficient, as was the case in previous cycles, the increase could be around:
~300%-500%.
This would mean a maximum increase of 5x from the low of the last cycle, and currently we have an increase of over 600%, that is, 6x. Is this ATH in this bull market?
To estimate the duration of the next Bitcoin uptrend, we can analyze how the duration of these uptrend cycles has evolved over time:
Historical data:
240 days
730 days
850 days
1050 days
Notes:
The increase in duration between cycles is not uniform, but follows a general trend of extending duration.
The duration increase intervals were:
From 240 -> 730: +490 days
From 730 -> 850: +120 days
From 850 -> 1050: +200 days
Analysis:
The duration extension appears to be accelerating moderately, with an irregular but generally increasing trend.
If this pattern continues, the next cycle could add between 200 and 300 days to the previous duration (1050 days).
Estimate:
The duration of the next cycle could be:
~1250-1350 days.
This estimate corresponds to a natural extension of Bitcoin cycles, reflecting wider adoption and lower volatility as the market becomes more mature.
