Are we in for a 27% Correction?Recognition of Previous Mistake (Rising Wedge vs. Ascending Channel)
Recent price action has revealed a shift in the structure. In my previous technical analysis I identified as a rising wedge. Upon breaking out of the rising wedge and further review, it now appears that Bitcoin is trading within an ascending channel. This structural adjustment suggests that while the market remains in a bullish trajectory overall, there are signs of weakening momentum, warranting a bearish outlook in the near future.
**Read In full to get historical validations to validate my theory**
Key Factors Supporting a Bearish Bias
Bearish Divergence on Weekly Time Frame
On the higher time frame, bearish divergence is evident, as price continues to make higher highs while key momentum indicators, such as the RSI, make lower highs. This divergence suggests that the current uptrend is losing strength, increasing the likelihood of a reversal.
Bearish Divergence on Daily Time Frame
A similar pattern is observed on the daily time frame, providing further evidence of weakening momentum. Combining divergences on both time frames strengthens the bearish case, as it highlights misalignment between price action and underlying market strength.
Loss of Momentum Within an Ascending Channel
Price is currently constrained within an ascending channel. While this structure supports the continuation of the uptrend in the short term, it often signals a gradual loss of momentum, especially when combined with other bearish signals. Breakout scenarios typically favor the downside in such cases, aligning with the broader bearish outlook.
Stochastic RSI Analysis
Weekly Time Frame:
The stochastic RSI is in the overbought region, and a bearish crossover (K-line crossing below the D-line) has occurred. This signal further strengthens the probability of a reversal or significant correction from current levels. Overbought conditions on higher time frames are particularly significant as they indicate market exhaustion.
Daily Time Frame:
The stochastic RSI has not yet reached overbought levels, suggesting that the price has some room to move higher in the short term before a bearish reversal materializes. This indicates that patience is warranted before entering a short trade.
Historical Validation
Historical analysis of similar scenarios (March and July) reinforces the reliability of the current bearish setup:
In both instances, price was constrained within an ascending channel.
Bearish divergences were present on both weekly and daily time frames.
The stochastic RSI aligned with bearish crossovers on the weekly and daily charts, signaling strong entry points for downside trades.
Current Market Outlook
Based on the above analysis, the bearish bias is supported by the following:
Loss of momentum within the ascending channel.
Bearish divergence on both weekly and daily time frames.
Overbought stochastic RSI on the weekly chart, with a pending overbought signal on the daily.
While the bearish setup appears robust, caution is advised as the daily stochastic RSI suggests that Bitcoin could see additional upside in the short term before the anticipated correction takes place.
My Trading Plan
Wait for Confirmation:
Monitor the daily stochastic RSI and wait for it to reach the overbought region, followed by a bearish crossover (K-line crossing below the D-line). This will serve as an ideal signal to enter a short trade.
Key Levels to Watch:
Channel Resistance: Watch for price rejection near the upper boundary of the ascending channel, which would reinforce bearish momentum.
Channel Support: A confirmed breakdown below the lower boundary of the ascending channel would act as a trigger for a bearish continuation.
