BTC Elliott Wave AnalysisIn this weekly BTC/USD analysis, I explore a potential Elliott Wave correction scenario with a focus on Wave C reaching critical support levels. The analysis combines Elliott Wave Theory with Ichimoku Cloud indicators and integrates the potential macroeconomic impact of the upcoming political shift in the U.S. as Donald Trump’s anticipated inauguration approaches on January 20, 2025.
Wave Analysis
Wave A
The initial corrective leg has established a strong bearish foundation, with the price dropping from its peak. Wave A aligns with the broader market's need for a cooling-off period after prolonged bullish momentum.
Wave B
A bullish rebound is expected in early 2025, fueled by market optimism and speculation surrounding Trump's presidency.
Likely targets for Wave B range between $100,000 and $112,000, aligning with Fibonacci retracement levels (38.2%–78.6%) of Wave A.
This area coincides with historical resistance, making it a potential profit-taking zone for short-term traders.
Wave C
After the Wave B peak, a deeper corrective Wave C is anticipated, potentially extending to the monthly Kijun-sen ($61,855) or lower.
Wave C often equals the length of Wave A or extends to 1.618x its size, reinforcing the $61k–$57k target zone.
The Kijun-sen and Ichimoku Cloud support levels at GETTEX:64K –$57k provide a strong confluence for the completion of Wave C.
Ichimoku Analysis
The price remains above the weekly Ichimoku Cloud, signaling the overall bullish trend is intact.
The monthly Kijun-sen acts as a strong magnet for price during corrections and is an ideal target for the Wave C completion.
The Chikou Span (Lagging Span) currently supports a bullish outlook; however, a Wave C correction could pull the Span closer to the cloud.
Macro Factors
Political Catalysts : The inauguration of Donald Trump on January 20, 2025, is expected to inject volatility into risk assets, possibly driving Wave B upward due to speculative optimism.
Global Economic Conditions : The broader crypto market’s performance will be influenced by macroeconomic trends, including monetary policy decisions and equity market behavior.
Disclaimer
This analysis represents a trading idea based on technical indicators and potential market catalysts. However, it is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and take responsibility for your trading decisions.