#btc #btcusd #elliottwave short sell setup wave a of 2 9Dec24This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
BTCUSD.P trade ideas
Bitcoin/crypto as a whole about to crashBitcoin seeing new ATH every week and we are all wondering when this bull run will end.
My prediction is very soon.
New ATH in the global markets and not just crypto. The cycles must end and the markets pull back. I've seen a lot of predictions saying that this could be mid 2025, my predicition is very early 2025 if not sooner.
Of course this is just my opinion and what I am doing personally, please let me know your thoughts below.
BTC update BTC update here we see BTC showing liquidity takes based on my personal opinion here right. But Both Daily and 4hr have shown reactions and showing specific price points to go to. My white lines are Daily Liquidity and 4hr are marked with yellow lines. Liquidity (LQ). here I observed last eek that Bitcoin did take both Buyside and Selllside Liquidiy withing the same week. and it just showed a 4hr Buyside Lq take showing that its getting closer to time to sell from this price or in general anywhere from here to 104k it can consider a sell from. Do not risk money you can't afford to lose and this is all strictly a hypothesis and opinions coming together to form an analysis. Its only been 30 days and we've seen history!
When To Take Bitcoin Profits, Santa Rally?Many Crypto Traders/Investors like to believe in a potential 'Santa Rally'. Essentially where investors pile money into such assets (BTC) and the price raises with demand.
Really, if you are going to be buying BTC at such highs you are not really Trading the asset, you are 'believing' in it's potential. Any holding of anything at all time highs is not going to be done on a 'good deal' basis, as one would not normally be buying highs.
It's important to remember if you are still holding BTC now at highs, you are still effectively buying highs. You are not actively entering but you are holding long positions.
Typically, if you want to be consistent long term and not face massive swings in P/L, you should take gains where you have gains. If something starts to stall, take it.
You then have the chance to re-buy later on. Holding anything for longer and longer pays out more - But equally its of more risk (you do not know when it will turn as you have no resistance reference points).
Investor long zones on wild dips are far more preferred. This is not to say it will not rally again beyond current highs - It is to say you do not know exactly how far or when it will stop.
BTC CorrectionBTC is possibly forming a rising wedge pattern. Almost all of the supply is in profit. Market has not corrected yet and re-tested last ath levels.
After correction I presume uptrend to continue.
Bitcoin Cycles: patternsThe Bitcoin chart shows the following patterns:
1. Halving, approximately every 1400 days.
2. 427 days from cycle high to cycle low.
3. From halving to cycle high - 518 days.
4. Each cycle low hits the previous peak.
5. After the correction, the price works out the Fibonacci levels of 2.618 and 3.618.
Based on these patterns, we can make the following conclusions:
1. The high of the current cycle should be in September 2025 at $150-200k.
2. The low should be in November 2026 at $65k.
3. If the next halving occurs in March 2028, the cycle high will be in August 2029 at $400-500k.
BITCOIN LAST RESISTANCE 80K! BACK POSSIBLE Hello guys we are seeing BTCUSD still high level this year credit all to BTCUSD
BTCUSD high price upto 100k
now we are looking to back some points of BTCUSD bc all resistance broken now our RL show to back.
Our 1ST Target 92k
2nd level 88k
last one point 80k then BTC will up and making new ATH
new ATH TO 150K?
follow us for long also short signals
Btc Bearish Now We can see that the BTC market has formed a bearish pennat and has also given a breakout from the rule that the market will now remain bearish.
BTC $113K Going from $56K to $113K :)
There is also a part where he will give back what he took.
It can be listened to at 65k - 75k.
BTCUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for Volatile HourBTCUSD is currently in a sideways consolidation phase, showing uncertainty and possible volatility. Here's a breakdown of the current situation and what to consider in the coming hour:
Current Market Conditions:
Price Movement: The most recent close was at 99,927.87, slightly below the 7-period EMA (100,001.91), indicating short-term weakness. However, the price remains above the 200-period EMA (98,028.12), signaling an overall bullish bias on higher timeframes.
Bollinger Bands:
The price is near the middle Bollinger Band (99,803.30), which often acts as a support or resistance level.
If the price breaks above the upper Bollinger Band (100,375.86), we may see upward momentum. However, a move below the middle band or the lower Bollinger Band (99,230.73) could lead to further downside.
Momentum Indicators:
The MACD line (89.44) is slightly below the Signal Line (91.75), showing bearish momentum, but the gap is narrow, which means the market could easily shift in either direction.
The RSI at 51.05 indicates neutral market conditions, with no strong buying or selling pressure at the moment. A movement above 55 would signal bullish momentum, while a drop below 50 could indicate further downside.
Volatility: The ATR (Average True Range) is at 534.35, indicating significant market volatility. Large price swings are expected, which means rapid moves in either direction are possible.
What to Expect in the Next Hour?:
Upward Movement:
For an upward breakout, look for the price to push above the 7-period EMA (100,001.91) and the upper Bollinger Band (100,375.86), which would confirm a bullish momentum shift. The RSI should move above 55 for confirmation of buying interest.
If the MACD crosses above the Signal Line, it will further confirm upward potential.
Downward Movement:
A break below the middle Bollinger Band (99,803.30) and a drop under the recent lows (99,771.96) could signal a continuation of the downtrend.
The MACD moving further negative and RSI dropping below 50 would indicate further bearish momentum.
Advice for Trading in This Volatile Hour:
Assess Risk Tolerance: This is a volatile period, so price swings could be significant. If you’re unsure about direction, avoid aggressive trading. If you trade, manage your positions carefully with tight stop-loss orders to limit exposure.
Avoid Chasing Moves: With such high volatility, it's easy to get caught chasing price moves. Let the price action confirm a trend before entering a trade. A sudden breakout or breakdown could reverse quickly, so patience is key.
Use Tight Stop-Losses: To manage risk effectively, especially in volatile conditions, set tight stop-loss levels. This ensures that if the market moves against you, your losses are contained, and you don’t get caught in the turbulence.
Look for Confirmation: Wait for clear confirmation from price action and indicators. For example, wait for the price to break above the upper Bollinger Band or below the middle band before entering a trade. This reduces the risk of false breakouts or reversals.
Trade Smaller Positions: During volatile hours, consider reducing your position size to limit risk exposure. A smaller position allows you to participate in the market while protecting yourself from sudden reversals.
Potential Trading Ideas:
Bullish Setup: Consider entering a long position if the price breaks above 100,070, targeting 100,375. Place a stop-loss around 99,800 to limit potential losses in case of a reversal.
Bearish Setup: Look for a short position if the price drops below 99,800, with a target near 99,230. Set a stop-loss at 100,050 to protect against an upside move.
Bitcoin at $100K: Breakout or Pullback? Here’s the Perfect EntryMarket Structure Overview
1. Weekly Chart
* BTC remains in a strong uptrend, trading near the upper boundary of an ascending channel.
* Key Resistance: $103,650, which aligns with the upper trendline.
* Key Support: $92,000, providing a safety net in case of a pullback.
* The MACD is bullish with increasing histogram bars, supporting continued upward momentum.
2. Daily Chart
* Price is consolidating near $100,000, forming a tight range between $98,500 (support) and $103,650 (resistance).
* Volume has been decreasing slightly, suggesting a potential breakout soon as traders wait for the next big move.
* A rejection near the upper resistance could send BTC back to $92,000 or lower.
3. 30-Minute Chart
* Price is forming higher lows but remains below the descending trendline.
* Immediate liquidity zones are visible near $102,000 (sellers) and $98,000 (buyers), ideal areas for scalping entries.
Key Levels
* Liquidity Zones:
* Upper Liquidity Zone: $103,000–$103,650 (Resistance)
* Lower Liquidity Zone: $98,000–$99,000 (Support)
* Order Blocks:
* Bullish order block at $96,000–$98,000.
* Bearish order block at $102,000–$103,000.
* Support and Resistance:
* Resistance: $102,000, $103,650
* Support: $98,000, $96,000
Swing Trading Plan
* Bullish Scenario:
* Entry: $98,500 (liquidity grab near support zone).
* Target 1: $102,000.
* Target 2: $105,000 (breakout of resistance zone).
* Stop-loss: $96,500 (below order block).
* Bearish Scenario:
* Entry: $103,650 (if price strongly rejects resistance).
* Target 1: $98,000.
* Target 2: $92,000.
* Stop-loss: $105,000.
My Thoughts and Projection
BTC's price is at a critical juncture. A breakout above $102,000 could fuel further gains toward $105,000 and beyond. However, if resistance holds at $103,650, a retracement toward $98,000 or even $92,000 is possible. For scalpers, intraday price action offers opportunities between these liquidity zones. Swing traders should watch for clearer confirmations near the major support and resistance levels to avoid false breakouts.
Playbook
1. Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout
* Look for a breakout above $102,000 with volume. Target $105,000.
* Key confirmation: MACD cross on the 4-hour chart.
2. Scenario 2: Rejection at Resistance
* Short near $103,650 with a target of $98,000.
* Key confirmation: Rejection candle with high sell volume.
3. Scenario 3: Pullback to Support
* Buy near $98,000 with a stop below $96,500.
* Target $102,000 for a quick rebound.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before entering trades.
BTC top has a moving resistance lineThe big red line with dashes is self evident enough that its easy to overlook. Not only is 100k a strong psychological resistance level, but it is converging with the big red line. This just means that the resistance level is moving higher over time. If you're waiting for the big breakout, I believe that is the bridge that must be crossed not just 100k.
I believe the price will basically go sideways until late January 21st.
HOWEVER, the possibility must also be considered of a "buy the rumor sell the news" type movement. But imo as long as Trump makes it to the WH then we should be good. Even if they declare some new global health emergency that will likely only add fuel to the fire for crypto even if it sucks for everything else.
Call me whatever you want this is the scenario. Good luck everyone.
BTCUSD (M15) ICT 1. Strong up trend.
2. Fair value gap.
3. liquidity.
4. Change of character.
#Bitcoin #btc #forex
Short then long setupStill not overbought, high greed levels, I expect a small hike up, some bearish divergence, then a continuation of bullish price action.
History repeats itselfPay attention to the specified candle, the behavior of the chart before this candle is also strangely similar
BTC/USD long - technicalMy idea stems from the support and resistance level and we can see from the data that is presented to us from a technical view...
My view is that we drop out of the 97k zone and move towards the 104 resistance level which was bypassed due to the news and uncertainty... I have also noticed that the greed level was completely high and this result of most major crypto assets to drop... We are now in the weekend but the 100k level is still to be reached within the coming days.
I am waiting on the break and retest of this level seen on the 4H marked in red trend down...
my entry will be based on the retest of 100k to take the long.
I will be waiting on a head shoulder patter or double/triple bottom to take the position...their might be a falling wedge pattern as well as shown on this 4h
Has BITCOIN reached its maximum and is a bear market coming?To make a prediction about Bitcoin’s next rally based on historical patterns, we should first examine the overall trends and how these increases and decreases have evolved in percentage terms.
Data observations:
337,000% increase -> 93% decrease
Massive increase, followed by a steep correction.
61,000% increase -> 86% decrease
Significant increase, but smaller than the first, and the decline was still close in percentage terms.
11,000% increase -> 84% decrease
Smaller increase, the decline remains large, but slightly milder.
2,000% increase -> 77% decrease
Significantly smaller increase compared to previous cycles, and the decline continued to moderate.
Observing a descending pattern:
The increases seem to be getting smaller and smaller with each cycle, and the decreases also tend to be less severe. This shows diminishing returns on increases and a reduction in market volatility.
Estimate for the next increase:
Given this pattern, the next percentage increase could be significantly smaller than the last one (2,000%). If we apply a progressive reduction coefficient, as was the case in previous cycles, the increase could be around:
~300%-500%.
This would mean a maximum increase of 5x from the low of the last cycle, and currently we have an increase of over 600%, that is, 6x. Is this ATH in this bull market?
To estimate the duration of the next Bitcoin uptrend, we can analyze how the duration of these uptrend cycles has evolved over time:
Historical data:
240 days
730 days
850 days
1050 days
Notes:
The increase in duration between cycles is not uniform, but follows a general trend of extending duration.
The duration increase intervals were:
From 240 -> 730: +490 days
From 730 -> 850: +120 days
From 850 -> 1050: +200 days
Analysis:
The duration extension appears to be accelerating moderately, with an irregular but generally increasing trend.
If this pattern continues, the next cycle could add between 200 and 300 days to the previous duration (1050 days).
Estimate:
The duration of the next cycle could be:
~1250-1350 days.
This estimate corresponds to a natural extension of Bitcoin cycles, reflecting wider adoption and lower volatility as the market becomes more mature.
BTC Selloff Reversal. Uptrend ContinuesBTC selloff after Powell's comments Wednesday took us down to the 50 day MA. A correction I've been anticipating. This occurred multiple times on the way up last cycle. The selloff produced a descending broadening wedge on the way down. This often leads to a reversal and that's what I'm predicting and starting to see unfold. My target is 102.3 but i'll be moving SL up as I go.
