BNBUSD.P trade ideas
BNB Potentially Down -70%Watching BNB for quite some time now waiting for the coin to drop. Not because I have anything against Binance. It's just the only major coin that hasn't fallen to its lustrum current:
That tells me it's being artificially inflated. Great opportunity to look for shorting opportunities.
Now is the first time I can see multiple signs that now may be the time:
Low Tide Signal
High tides (H) show when there is upward pressure. Low tides (L) during downtrends. BNB is showing the first L since September '19. Back then, the price fell -33%.
Ebb Flow Confirmed
Flow indicated back in March '23 that liquidity was falling (Ebb). We got a short-term bounce in April, then a dip in May; both confirmed. The bounce in June was short lived (so far, at least).
Topping Candles
Just for good measure, we can see that Energy is showing topping markers indicating resistance.
Season (Almost) Crossing Year
The coup de grâce is the seasonal average about to cross the yearly. This usually coincides with about a -50% drop in BNB -- and by usually I mean 100% of the time.
So that's my two cents and I'll be shorting BNB for the next while. I'd love to hear what you're seeing.
What do I do with BNB?TLDR:
• Although the bearish pressure on BNB is reduced. It is not yet clear that the downtrend is finished.
• To confirm a trade reversal, I will wait for a long signal from the TTM Squeeze indicator.
Background:
• BNB is in a continuous downtrend since the 17th of April 2023.
• Fundamental news regarding Binance US has exacerbated BNB’s situation and increased the downside momentum.
• Since June 11th selling pressure has somewhat reduced but momentum is still on the downside.
• If we disregard the wicks, in the past 18 days BNB is moving in an 8% price range.
• This high level of compression is displayed by the TTM Squeeze indicator by the orange dot. The orange dot means the highest level of compression (Keltner channel inside the Bollinger band).
Will BNB’s compression lead to a trend reversal?
• The truth is I don’t know. Nobody does; especially not the trading gurus on YT and CT.
• However, I think that liquidity is to the upside, not down. IMO, candle wicks are the footprint of the MM. Wicks could indicate that MMs are building long positions. The only problem is that I cannot negate another quick move down to shake out the traders that already took long positions.
So, what do we do?
We don’t have to do anything. We wait.
Wait For what?
Trend reversal. A long signal.
How will I know that the trend changed?
1. Bullish RSI divergence.
2. The TTM squeeze indicator is a big help in such a situation. Once the TTM Squeeze histogram moves above the zero line and green dots appear, it’s a sign that volatility is returning.
3. I will also look out for a high-volume green candle and a strong price move away from the range.
Next Support levels:
205 USD.
183 USD.
Resistance:
240 USD.
250 USD.
260 USD.
NFA
What do you think? Please share in the comments.
Best wishes.
Be prepared for the 140 usdtThe decline has not ended yet, and it is assumed that we will go to the shaded area below, including a simple correction, and we will update the analysis at that time.
Note: The analysis fails to close above the 285 usdt
BnbusdCurrently, BNB/USD has just broken through the daily support level, suggesting a potential selling opportunity if all criteria have been met. I anticipate the price will likely move towards 219.66.
Fire Sale on BNBOn the 4H TF we can see a Head and Shoulders pattern.
The target of this H&S is the 223 USD support level.
IF the 220 – 223 USD level doesn’t hold, next support levels are:
• 205 USD
• 182 USD
Be sure to take advantage of this opportunity.
I am still not posting a trade. I need more clarity. However, if you are a holder, I think that buying spot BNB at these prices is a golden opportunity to DCA. Start at 223 USD and increase position size if it dips further.
NFA
What do you think? Please share in the comments.
Best wishes to all.
Crypto capitulation eventThis is the capitulation event for crypto that I was waiting for.
My previous Bitcoin idea and target are still valid, anyone long right now is going to get wiped out by the crash of Binance coin.
I’m currently short. I also shorted Bitcoin and sold most of my alts here.
If wrong then I will buy back higher on bullish structures.
Even with the massive pump Bitcoin had here, Binance coin wasn’t able to invalidate the bearish structure. Absolutely terrible performance.
Binance is still being sued, BNB is being artificially pumped by “someone’s” creative syphoning of client money. “Allegedly”.
This pump was extremely profitable for me on my alts, an absolute lifesaver of a hedge. Sold most, will use profits to buy lower.
BNB USD :where are the areas?Hello. Since 2021, smart money has been accumulating the token at low noise. A short-term drop is very likely to liquidate the stops. But it remains a token with a very bright future.
BNB LTF Analysis – 23.06.2023
Yesterday, on June 22nd, BNB failed to break the resistance of 21D EMA and the upper boundary of the Ascending Triangle.
Consequently, it also lost the triangle’s upward sloping trendline. During the Asian session BNB tested the diagonal line resistance.
I am in no way bearish about BNB, but I think that BNB will go a bit lower before it tries for higher. These are my reasons:
Bearish Momentum: BNB is below the 21D & 50D EMAs. As long as BNB is below these EMAs the bearish pressure is pushing price down.
A break below a diagonal support is usually a sign of weakness.
I don’t advocate for trading correlations , but I don’t ignore them either. BTC is looking top heavy, and I expect it to pull back to the 28K level. IMO, BNB in its current state cannot overcome such headwinds.
Lastly, Today is Friday , I expect many long traders to cash in on their longs and retire for the weekend. If this happens, the bearish pressure all over the market will increase and BNB will suffer.
The first sign of a recovery is if BNB reclaims the trendline. If BNB reclaims the trendline and pushes up, the bullish case for BNB will become stronger.
Support Levels:
BNB can reverse. BNB is a strong asset with substantial upside potential. As long as the uptrend in the general crypto market holds, I do not expect BNB to drop below the 220 USD Level. However, if BNB does drop to the 180 USD level, I will go balls deep into BNB spot. IMO, this is the best asset in the Altcoin category.
238 USD (low confidence)
231 USD (medium confidence)
220 USD (high confidence)
BNB LTF Long Trade
BNB broke out of the Ascending Triangle to the upside. It is currently testing the 253 USD level for support.
If BNB manages to flip 253 to support, it is a long trade, IMO.
If BNB doesn’t manage to break out, I think we will go lower to around 246 USD and try again from there.
If it breaks down from the triangle, I will reassess the situation.
Read my previous BNB ideas for more context.
NFA
What do you think? Please share in the comments.
Best wishes to all.
BNB LTF Analysis
BNB is moving in an Ascending Triangle.
BNB managed to get above the 21 & 50 EMAs on the 4H.
The area between 253 – 267 is strong resistance. Above 267, the risk of a breakdown is much reduced.
IF BNB fails to break through resistance the next supports are:
238 USD.
231 USD.
220 USD.
In my opinion, BNB’s outlook is positive, and I do not think it is likely to drop below the 220$ level.
NFA.
What do you think? Please share in the comments.
Best wishes to all.
BNB 4HWith all the news surrounding Binance and its SEC battle that lay ahead I thought I'd look at a potential BNB trade.
We've seen the coin drop from the $300 mark in a pattern of huge sell off followed by consolidation, then sell off again until we've reached the ascending triangle pattern I have shown on the chart. This pattern is very close to breaking down and I think will result in a retest of the Local low that was set at the end of last year and was briefly tagged recently on June 12th.
There is a clear range that can be split into quarters to help mange this trade. If the triangle pattern is lost, the midpoint will need to provide support, if it does not BNB will retest the $220 in my opinion. From there $180 is the last chance at support as it's nothing but air after that, BNB will be in freefall.
On the bullish side all this downwards price action has left a lot of inefficiencies in price that will eventually be revisited, I just don't think it will be soon given the outside forces acting upon the coin. If BTC has a huge rally from here that's BNB's only hope.
✴️ Binance Coin Likely To RecoverBinance Coin is in the TOP10 and we can use it to gauge the strength of the market.
If BNB recovers, the rest is set to recover.
What one does, the rest follows.
Since Binance is the one receiving the strongest attack, we will call it karma and leave it at that, if it can recover then the easier it is for the rest to recover. As others are being attacked but not as strong.
We have a double bottom here, June 2023 vs December 2022, technically.
The June low is actually a few cents higher while the RSI went to oversold; a hidden bullish divergence.
Yes they are under attack, but an attack is not the end of the world.
Look at BitMEX for example, it was attacked but it survived.
They might have to wind down, maybe even stop some of their scam schemes... who knows, but an attack is not the end of the world.
Cryptocurrency is about freedom and decentralization.
The market can become too centralized at times. Whatever is happening is bound to turn into a positive in the long-run.
Binance, you reap what you sow.
Good luck with your battle.
You will survive, that's for sure.
Namaste.
BNB - Short || EW and Rising Wedge
Rising Wedge pattern bearish
EW Wave count 5 downwards move
LQ zone to be tapped for support re-test
Downwards momentum indicators
Negative Money supply on HTF
BNBUSD Is there any salvation for the Binance Coin?The Binance Coin / BNBUSD had a week of enormous selling pressure last week, touching on Monday Support A (220.00), that was formed on the December 17th Low.
This is a strong long term buy opportunity. Target initially Resistance A at 318.00 and by the end of August Resistance B at 350.00.
As shown, the primary pattern is a Rectangle.
If the price closes under Support A, target Support B at 194.00 on the short term. However given how emormously oversold the 1day RSI got (at 15.00) on Monday, this is unlikely. Still that would be an ever better long term buy opportunity.
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SEC's Impact on BNB, SOL and BitcoinThough the SEC went hard against BNB, it still stands stronger than SOL and Bitcoin is like "Nothing Wrong" which is a good omen.
One of The Most Manipulated & Inflated Assets of All TimeBNB has been consistently the best performing crypto asset since its inception in 2017. Since then, it has gone from mere pennies to nearly $700, outperforming both Ethereum and Bitcoin. How is this possible, given that the TOTAL crypto market cap lingers close to its 2017 all-time high, 5 years later??
How is this possible, given that the crypto market itself hasn't sustained much growth since 2017, Binance volume has declined, and given that cryptocurrencies themselves do not provide a necessary in-demand service for society? For an exchange like Binance, trading and gabling is the top priority, not meaningful change to infrastructure, the environment, or fundamental human needs.
It's been over 3 years since I've written an article or any sort of analysis on Binance Coin (BNB). Here is one of my last posts from 2019, which includes roughly the same bullish channel shown on the righthand chart of this post:
It's quite incredible how well BNB has respected this channel and its trendlines over the years. A Technical Analyst's wet dream.
Needless to say, my experience and perspective has changed since 2019, but one thing does remain the same: I believe BNB is heavily manipulated. And it's not really a question; the chain itself is deflationary by design, and there are those at the top who have a vested interest in keeping the value high. It also has enforced demand. Since Binance has become the go-to exchange for many, at first glance it makes sense that BNB continues to outperform the rest of the market. When I first came across BNB at the end of 2017, trading with it was useful because it help reduce fees on Binance. At that time, it was an ERC-20 token on the Ethereum network. I had a bad feeling about it, so I couldn't commit to holding the token. From a profit standpoint, of course it was a bad move to let go of my BNB coins.
As of April 2019, BNB became its own chain (with a code similar to that of NEO, I believe). Now, it's become an entire ecosystem with a Decentralized Exchange, burn mechanism, lottery system, NFT's, and plenty of other nebulous forms of functionality. Many existing projects also migrated to the Binance "smart chain," some of which migrated from NEO, which at the time shared some tech with the new BNB chain. This likely caused a decline in usage and popularity for NEO, which struggled to maintain relevance next to Binance's marketing and their presence as the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world.
During this period between 2017 and the present day, BNB is the ONLY relevant cryptocurrency that has continuously made new all time highs against Bitcoin, as far as I'm aware. BNB now maintains a solid position in the top 5 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, currently standing at around $45 Billion.
HOWEVER
As you can see on the above charts, volume has fallen off a cliff. This tells me Binance's price is influenced by very little *authentic* trading. Volatility has also immensely declined. This may have something to do with the banning of crypto trading in China in 2021, as well as other regulatory crackdowns. It remains incredibly likely that BNB would be deemed a security in the eyes of the SEC, since Binance employees receive payment in BNB, and the token itself is often seen as an investment in Binance as a company. Assumably, if the company is doing well, BNB benefits.
BNB has all sorts of mechanisms keeping it afloat: Quarterly token burn mechanisms (as mentioned earlier), numerous stabelcoins (some of which operate on the Binance smart chain itself, and recycled profits from other cryptocurrency projects. BNB has sucked market share from almost everything else. How else can something maintain such a high relative value while markets tumble and liquidity evaporates? The only explanation I can come with is that it is being propped up. I've also noticed that BNB generally maintains a positive funding rate on Binance while others have remained negative during the bear market, which may indicate that it has continuous long interest from futures.
Now, looking at the recent news, a $500M hack has occurred, right under the nose of Binance, on their very own "smart chain." This is the largest hack experienced by Binance, and it joins the ranks of some of the largest crypto hacks of all time. While hack attempts are surely made in our banking system, it makes one wonder what the precise point is of this "alternative financial system" if it is so susceptible to hacks of this scale. I mean come on, the entire chain was halted. Apparently BNB was originally created as a means to repay customers after a Bitcoin hack in 2017. Now that's pretty interesting, don't you think?
Looking at the monthly chart, BNB itself has halted. Price action has essentially flatlined, underneath the 9 month EMA.
I expect price to eventually break below or at least test the 50 month MA (red). I'm leaning towards a breakdown here, mostly due to the lack of PA and volume, in addition to my feeling that negative news is likely to continue. It's also important to note the breakdown of the long term uptrend against the dollar, and the lingering at near the top of the bullish channel against Bitcoin. I think price can decline straight back to the $40-50 level, near the breakout point for the last bull run, and at least back to the middle of the channel against Bitcoin. Depending on how badly Binance would be hit by such a crash in BNB price, I will reassess from there. Of course, there is the chance for markets to bounce throughout Q4 of this year, since SPX hit the 200 week Moving Average. There may even be some room for rare optimism from me, depending on how things play out in the coming weeks.
Despite this, I believe the house of cards is still likely to continue to fall for crypto. I have very little conviction in this market's durability at the moment. Again, here is the TOTAL market cap chart, showing that the 50 month MA holds as support, likely due to the price performance of coins like ETH and BNB, as well as stablecoin dominance.
A crash in BNB would be likely to send other crypto prices lower as traders look for liquidity and the exchange goes into crisis mode. Certain stablecoins like USDT and BUSD may also be in trouble, should that happen, also due to a liquidity crunch.
As always, this is meant as speculation! This may not play out at all, and I could just be spouting nonsense. Regardless, it's fun to think about these things. Unlike U.S. banks, a crypto exchange like Binance has very little recourse should it fall. Even people who still believe in the long term viability of Bitcoin will agree - get funds off exchanges.
Again, this is not meant as financial advice. The future is not certain. All we can do is speculate and entertain ourselves in this wild world.
Thank you for reading.
-Victor Cobra
A Wolf In White Knight's Clothing - The End of A CartelThe saying is usually "a wolf in sheep's clothing," but you'll see why I reworded it a little further down. The above charts show TRX (Tron) and BNB (Binance Coin) side by side, in what I believe to be distribution ranges after breaking uptrends. Distribution is how these players achieve profit (selling to prospective buyers). I think they will eventually break down massively. If they do not, it means the infinite money scheme, despite its glaring obviousness, has continued to work. All eyes are on them now, so there may be a limit to what they can accomplish now. This is why I think it's very important to pay attention at this moment.
Yesterday, I noticed enormous stablecoin outflows from Binance to Coinbase. These were mostly USDC, which is recognized as legitimate in the United States. My speculation is that Binance and other players in the crypto cartel are extracting capital from the markets using liquidity generated by artificial/counterfeit stablecoins, such as USDD and BUSD. USDD is the stablecoin on the Tron network, while BUSD is the stablecoin on the Binance chain. The collapse of FTX of course was probably inevitable, and CZ knew this. In order to distract the market from the larger scheme, he appeared as a "white knight," or a person who appears to come to the rescue, but is only serving self-interest. He is a wolf on the hunt, not a white knight, and certainly not a sheep. CZ (Binance) likely had no intention of buying out FTX, and used the liquidity generated from the pump to dump BNB on the open market. In a similar move, Justin Sun (Tron) allowed some funds to be withdrawn from FTX through the TRX network. Why? It benefits token values and allows for exit liquidity. However, this is merely forced demand. If Binance monopolizes the crypto space, they have cornered the market. This is clearly not decentralization.
Now, let's say Binance and other exchanges hope to keep running. What do they need? Buyers. By the very nature of the speculative market, no single player can admit that things are going wrong, or that things have little intrinsic value. If they do, prices will be sent cascading lower in the blink of an eye. Instead, it needs to be a slow unwind. That's why the above charts are significant. At any moment, they could meet the same fate as LUNA or FTT. This is because I think it is very unlikely the crypto market will attract the authentic buyer liquidity required to keep Bitcoin miners afloat and the cartel running. Eventually they will need to decide enough is enough. I think CZ's "white knight" behavior may, in hindsight, be the signal.
Will they get away with it? After so many billions extracted, one must wonder - where is all that money?
This is my opinion, and not meant as financial advice. This is meant for speculation and entertainment only.
-Victor Cobra
BNB set to ATH? I guess the explanation is in the chart. Much confluence all around which makes me think we could finally resume higher.
Questions are welcome, trade safe!
Binance Coin BNB/USDWill the price hold 200EMA for third time and make a higher low structure?
If not. I don't think we will break the 185USD level because of fud, unless something would go badly wrong with Binance and collapse the price.
Maybe we might get a nice bear trap there.
Binance Coin Can Be Finishing A Larger Bullish TriangleBinance coin is trading sideways for more than 100 weeks, similar as back in 2018-2020.
We see it as a long corrective consolidation within uptrend, ideally as a larger bullish triangle pattern in wave (4) that can take the price higher for wave (5) in the near future.
Despite recent negative news that U.S. regulators sued Binance and its CEO Changpeng Zhao for breaking the US securities rules, we can actually see it now trading in final subwave E of (4) that can find the support around the lower triangle line and base channel resistance line. Binance is actually already bouncing back with comments »We will defend ourselves against the SEC suit vigorously. The SEC lawsuit is baseless. We remain open to a productive compromise." So, don't get bear trapped and be aware of a bullish resumption into 5th wave in the second part of 2023.
BinanceDid anybody learn their lesson from #FTX?
Are you holding #BNB? Look at this chart now...
!!! WATCH HERE !!!
reverse symmetry move
continuation breakdown
#binance #bitcoin #crypto
