ES / MES Weekend Update Dec 8We continue OTFU on the weekly and daily. I want to be slightly cautious above here, not because it's bearish, but simply because we're above a 2 sigma deviation (SPX 6073) of the YTD vwap (SPX 5405). In the past, price has whipsawed at this deviation up to the 2.5. While I remain long, I also must have one foot out the door.
Last week created a double distribution profile with Friday ending in the upper part. Thursday saw a pretty large seller come on around 6106 which then saw some resistance on Friday. Friday's initial move at the open from the NFP data left a poor high. This will most likely be revisited. Main concern for buyers here would be an excess move above Friday's high creating a look above and fail. I would watch 6114-6119 for exact scenario.
For longs, I would be interested in a look below and fail of 6092-88. There is a LVN between Friday's low and the 12/5 Spike base. Take this up to 6100-06, trim and see where we go from there. A break above Friday's VAH, 6104 would target Friday's Poor High. Afterwards, we observe for the look above and fail possibility. Otherwise, trail the long. Above then targets 6124 and 6136, Friday 50% and 100% extensions respectively.
If we trade and get traction below Friday's low, the NFP event candle low would be first target at 6075. Further weakness may finally see the gap fill at 6066 where I do expect buyers to pop in. Further weakness, would then target Nov RTH ATH 6060 and old balance top at 6045.
In the end, buyers really are not in serious trouble until back below 6k.
Weekly Expected Move: 61pts - 6038 / 6160
12/9 Daily Expected Move: 20pts - 6079 / 6119
