S&P 500 (ESZ2024) - Patience Pays!The strength to the upside is strong.
But that could be the very sentiment that triggers a short-term retracement to discount arrays.
ISP1! trade ideas
Waiting for an excuseThe structure in the S&P 500 implies the market is waiting for an excuse to do something. There will be fundamentals and fed speakers this week that could provide that excuse for an increase in volatility in the S&P 500. The buyers for this market is still for further movement to the upside.
Es levels and targets sept 23rdAfter last week's squeeze, ES has been stuck in the 5782-5738 range. In mondays plan, I called for a rally from 5755 to 5782 today. We held 5755 perfectly last night, rallied to 5782, and then sold off from there
As of now: 5766 (weak) and 5755 are supports. Buyers holding those keeps 5782, 5791, 5797 and 5807 in play. If 5755 fails, expect a retest of 5737 area.
ES Overnight Price Action REview 9-23-24Going over the price Action ES Overnight looking for clues as to what the market is telling us and how we want to position for the DAy.
SPX Key Levels Using Crazy Accurate Stats new price targets for Sep 23 using Statistics and Data to drive a 70%+ historical accuracy.
Topics:
- Today's Targets
Overall we use stats and data pulled from a wide array of Tradingview indicators and scripts so that I can have as much data as possible - even if it's unstructured or uncorrelated data. I then use AI and SOP's to systematically calculate a weekly and daily framework. My predictions are never 100% but ALL of them are mathematically proven to be 70%+ accurate historically or I wouldn't use them.
Most indicators I use on my Data Dashboard chart has the stats in their associated boxes that I show during the recording if you'd like to verify yourself.
Please leave me feedback as I am new to creating content and would like to improve.
Personally I use these targets in combination with ICT Concepts to trade.
Nothing I say is Financial Advice - Previous performance does not guarantee future success.
SP500**SP500:**
This week's forecast is that the price will continue to rise.
New all-time high at 5796.25.
SPY/ES Weekly Analysis of Sept 27Monday September 23 we are expecting Flash Manufacturing PMI data! From the daily timeframe perspective, price action may continue to rise and create a new all time high, as we end the month of September. If we drop, we will likely find support around 5700 for ES and 563 for SPY. If support fails, we could fall further, as low as 5570 for ES and 550 for SPY.
Keep in mind this week we have several red folders on Forex Factory to keep an eye out for. These include Consumer Confidence, Final GDP, Unemployment Claims, and Core PCE Price Index!
#202439 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500: Similar structure to dax. Nested bull wedges inside a big broad bull channel. The current bullish structure has a potential to lead to much much higher prices but I favor the trading range continuation more. The bull wedge will break over the next 2-3 days and we will likely have an answer on the next direction. Bulls need a strong break above 5800 and bears below 5670.
Quote from last week:
comment: Favored the bears last week and wanted to load on shorts on this pullback but bears were practically gone, so no shorts for me. Lower highs and higher lows. Triangle on the daily chart until broken. Not much difference to the other indexes. Above 5670 bulls are favored for 5700+ and maybe a new ath and bears would need a strong reversal below 5650 for bulls to cover their longs again. Similar to 2024-09-03 where bears printed a huge bearish engulfing bar, that is that they would need here as well.
comment: Bears did absolutely nothing last week except selling highs. Not a single daily bar below the previous one. Very strong buying with resulted in an obvious new ath on Thursday. Are bulls done or will we get hit 5800? Most likely we will hit it because of the obvious liquidity grab (stop running) above it.
current market cycle: nested bull wedges
key levels: 5670 - 5850
bull case: We are trading around the ath. Will the market find more buyers to push this even higher? We are inside nested bullish patterns and bulls are favored but buying near the ath without a better pullback is not the best trade you can do right now. On lower tf you can find reasonable longs but not on the daily. I’d rather wait for a breakout of the smaller wedge and see where the market wants to go. I do think bulls can print 5800 and some next week. Most outrages target I have on sp500 is 6144 but I will only address this once bulls close a weekly bar above 5800.
Invalidation is below 5670.
bear case: Bears want the breakout below the wedge and test the daily ema around previous support 5670. If they are strong, they could hit 5600 next week but as of now the bears have nothing to support this but hope. Best they can probably get is some sideways around 5760.
Invalidation is above 5810.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral between 5400 - 5670. I slightly favor the bears when they print a good bear bar on Monday because of the triangle. Above 5670 I scalp long and see how high we can get.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5629 and now we are at 5762. I leaned bearish but only if… If never came true since bears could not get a lower low all week. My read that above 5670 it’s a long, was good for 110.
short term: Neutral around 5760. No interest in buying besides small long scalps on the 5m or lower tf for 5800. Market is contracting in a tight range, best not to do anything and wait for a clear breakout.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect at least 5300 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Only bullish pattern left and added an outrages measured move target.
Possible ES future EW count for the next weeks.If my count is correct, the bull market is far from being over. Once reached wave3 in yellow around 6200-6300 area, the market should correct but still finding support in order to end wave 5 yellow (not in the chart) into 7400 area.
Any ideas?
#ES_F 9.22 - 9.27.24Will Fridays weakness continue into this last week of the month to bring price back inside Value or will we find stability above.
Accepting under 5750s could signal more weakness with Supply above could give short set ups towards/inside the Cost Basis into VAL area. There is a GAP to fill, does not mean we will fill it on first attempts if there is enough covering.
Holding over Supply/Edge areas can change the weakness
Full ES Trading Plan for MondayPlan For Monday:
• Supports:
5755 (major), 5751, 5746, 5738-40 (major), 5733, 5729, 5726 (major), 5721, 5711, 5698-5702 (major), 5690, 5685, 5680, 5675 (major), 5666, 5661, 5655 (major), 5646, 5638 (major).
• Levels to Bid Direct:
• After a 120-point squeeze last week, ES spent friday in consolidation mode. Remember, trend days like last Thursday are anomalies and are typically followed by either a price correction (selloff) or time correction (consolidation). Friday, we saw the latter.
• For Monday, I view 5738-40 to 5782 as potential chop. We could see a repeat of friday’s ping-pong price action, requiring flexible level-to-level trading. 5738-40 is now range support, and while it’s been well-tested friday, it may have one more bid left in it, provided we don’t break above Thursday’s highs first.
• If 5738-40 fails, 5726 becomes the next magnet. While we’ve consolidated, there hasn’t been a significant selloff after the rally, so caution with new longs below 5738-40 is warranted. Markets love to condition dip buyers before flipping to deeper pullbacks. If 5726-28 breaks, 5698-5702 is the final support before a sharper leg down, where a small knife catch long could be considered. Below here, 5675, 5656, and 5638 are potential reaction points.
• Resistances:
5763, 5766 (major), 5771, 5776, 5782 (major), 5791, 5797, 5807 (major), 5812, 5818, 5830, 5843-45 (major), 5847, 5856 (major), 5866 (major), 5870, 5879, 5885, 5895-5900 (major).
• As always, I don’t short strength in ES uptrends. For those looking for countertrend trades, 5782 might have a final reaction left before breaking out, while 5807, 5845, and 5866 are other potential reaction levels.
• Bull Case for Monday:
• In the short term, the bull case centers around a potential bull flag. Support is at 5738-40 with 5725 as the absolute lowest, and resistance around 5782. We could ping-pong within this range for days, but as long as 5738-40 holds, we continue upwards.
• This could lead to another test of 5782, followed by a potential dip and a move to new highs at 5806+. From there, if ES stretches further, 5845 and 5866 are next targets. As of writing, we are defending 5755 support, and one could consider buying here at open or waiting for a 5766 recovery to target 5782. (Safer route)
• Bear Case for Monday:
• Shorts remain difficult, particularly breakdown shorts, which are notorious for trapping traders. For Monday, failure of 5738-40 could open the door for downside, with the next critical support at 5726.
• These breakdown trades are tricky as 80% of them typically fail. I prefer failed breakdown setups, where one could wait for a recovery above 5738-40 or for a flush below 5726 that recovers. A test of 5724-25 might trigger a short if the structure is right, with the next downside target at 5702.
• Summary for Monday:
• My general lean is to defer to the trend, with 5738-40 to 5782 forming a new consolidation range. We could see more chop inside this range for a couple days, but generally as long as 5738 holds, and any dips below are quickly bought up, we should revisit 5782 first, followed by a potential dip and then a move to new highs.
• If 5738-40 fails, we could see a more sustained pullback. Volume will be critical at these levels—if we don’t see strong buying volume, expect any breakdowns to accelerate the downside move.
ReassessmentFriday's close and the S&P 500 implies a reassessment of what is happened over the last couple days with the Fed lowering the Fed funds rate by 50 bps. I was looking for a stronger confident close on Friday which did not materialize. Although the price structure on Friday is potentially bearish, I'm looking for an inside day as the market reassesses its outlook for the coming week.
This is NOT Bullish for the Stock Market!This week The Fed lowered rates and everyone was "SURE" that this would lead to a huge market yeet in stocks and Bitcoin INDEX:BTCUSD ... but are we getting it?
Price closed the week with an attempt to break higher on the S&P 500 futures CME_MINI:ES1! BUT closed BACK INSIDE the prior All Time High. THIS is a key sign of a potential reversal. In this video I look at similar instances to demonstrate how this simple element of price action is often all one needs to correctly identify reversals whether it is Bitcoin, individual stocks, or the market as a whole!
20240920 ESThe new HH is in place and some downside reaction has been created. Nevertheless I anticipate the PMS to bring the upside move to raid bs.
Ideally to see some SandD during LHS and spooling to the upside during PMS and particularly the Final hour.
The ideal scenario is on the chart.
ES 10:50-11:10 Macro $CME_MINI:ES1! Run on sellstops another Day in the Lab on a Friday CME_MINI:ES1!
ES/SPX levels and targets sept 20thWednesday around stock market close, ES gave us a huge long setup after A failed breakdown at 5680. Targets were 5779 and 5797, and we nailed 5797 to the tee for new all time highs. Now it’s all about consolidation. OPEX Friday today, so *don’t overtrade*. These days are notoriously known for blowing accounts and “pinning” of prices
As of now: 5765 and 5754 are supports. Buyers have to hold to keep 5774, 5782, and 5797-99 back in play. If 5754 breaks, 5737 we go
SPX Premarket Analysis for Friday | ICT Data | Sep 20Pre Market Analysis for Sep 20'th using Statistics and Data to drive a 70%+ historical accuracy with all analysis methods.
Inner Circle Concepts Trader using Stats to analyze the stock market.
Topics:
- Yesterday's Results
- Today's Projections
ES Overnight Price aCtion Review 9-20-24Going over ES Price action overnight looking for clues the market is giving us to help us pick high probability trades. NO A+ setups NO trades today. Friday is Mental Capital Preservation Day. mostly doing charting/reviewing past week trades and grading them. we dont get 2 confirming signals we wont be trading today.
Buyers returnedBuyers returned in the S&P 500 on Thursday. The challenge is can these buyers continue this momentum up providing a positive close in the S&P 500. The ideal close would be above 5620 going into the weekend.
Average Range Levels Long1/3 ADR+ & 1/3AWR+ was my entry and target was 5ADR!
This is really great long model you will find success with.
Full ES/SPX trading plan for Sept 20thPlan For Friday:
• Supports:
5775, 5769, 5765 (major), 5758, 5754 (major), 5746, 5737-40 (major), 5730, 5721 (major), 5715, 5711 (major), 5702 (major), 5690, 5685 (major), 5680, 5675 (major), 5666, 5659, 5646 (major).
• Levels i would bid Direct:
• I’m still trailing my 10% long runner from 5685, which is now up over 100 points from 24 hours ago, following a 322-point rally from last week’s lows. Bulls remain in full control, with no signs of losing key support levels yet.
• However, this is my least favorite market configuration to trade. After such a significant rally, setups become scarce, and both longs and shorts carry elevated risks (rug pull for longs, and trying to short strong uptrends is equally risky).
• Tomorrow, 5765 is the first key level. It was tested multiple times today and is no longer fresh, but it could still offer a bid opportunity if the reaction is favorable. If the price is knifing down, wait for 5754 and a potential recovery.
• Any significant drop will likely see multiple supports lost, so be cautious with longs under key levels like 5763. Watch for a pullback to 5738-40, and if we pop above 42-43, this might offer a setup for longs.
• In a quick selloff, 5711 or 5702 could present knife catch opportunities, especially if volume supports the recovery at those levels. Without strong buying volume, expect fakeouts at these major supports.
• Resistances:
5782 (major), 5796, 5803-05 (major), 5813, 5824 (major), 5836, 5842 (major), 5850 (major), 5856, 5862-65 (major), 5872, 5880, 5887, 5897, 5906, 5915-20 (major), 5931, 5937 (major).
• I don’t short strength in ES, especially in such strong uptrends. If you’re looking to fade strength, 5803-05 or 5850 could offer potential reactions, but it’s a high-risk strategy.
• Bull Case for Tomorrow:
• In the short term, bulls need to defend 5765. A consolidation or flag pattern between 5765 and 5796 could unfold, allowing ES to target 5805, 5825, and eventually 5862-65.
• After such a large rally, it’s crucial that ES holds 5711 or 5702 on any pullbacks. Below 5702, we could see a move back to 5675.
• Volume will be key—continued upside needs increasing buying volume to support further moves, especially through major resistances like 5805 and 5850.
• Bear Case for Tomorrow:
• The bear case starts if 5765 fails. This could trigger a short-term dip, but breakdown trades are inherently risky with low win rates.
• I’d need to see ES first test 5763 and or put in a failed breakdown to the 5754 level first. After this plays out, one could place a short trigger below wherever the structure is. It should be slightly underneath any noise. It may be somethign like 5750 but could be higher.
• As always, approach breakdown trades cautiously, especially without volume confirming the move. These setups are tricky and can easily trap traders.
• Summary for Tomorrow:
• Bulls are still in control, but this staggering rally could end anytime. Until 5765 is lost, I’m deferring to the trend, expecting a range between 5765 and 5796, with upside targets of 5805, 5825, and 5863-65.
• If 5765 fails, we could see a backtest of previous breakout points from yesterday. Volume will be crucial—watch for volume increases at major levels to confirm further moves, or risk a rug pull if buying volume doesn’t support the trend.
SP500 Futures Chart Now in Final Stages of 100 year RallyCycles are a normal part of life. The stock market is no different. In my long term analysis we appear to be headed up to an area that can complete a rally that started almost 100 years ago.
For context, this long-term consolidation will be similar to Japan's Nikkei index in which made no new high's for 34 years.
ES levels & targets sept 19thYesterday, 5680 acted as a cash machine. As mentioned in my plan for today, longs triggered at the 5680 hold on the classic failed breakdown of Tuesday’s low, with ATHs as the target—and now we’re up over 100 points.
As of now: Secure profits and hold onto the runners. Looking at 5797 and 5805 as the next targets up for buyers, with 5759-63 as key support that must hold to keep this leg up in play.
