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BGI1! trade ideas

LE1! Continuous CattleWeekly Cont. Cattle: So far the Parallel uptrend line based off the 2019 low has proved to be a strong action/reaction line. Currently working as a magnet with last week’s close right on it. **Cycle high/low targeted the week of 3/29 and appears to have done the job. Next cycle date will target the week of (or around) 8/02 to place a swing high or low….Using the parallel lines would have support at that time in the 116 to 112 area, and have upside potential around 136. Any of the lines on the chart could act as support/resistance (or action/reaction lines)
CME:LE1!
by mtb1980
We'll Meat Again, Don't Know Where...This one can be a volatile spread, and that goes both ways. The idea is to buy Live Cattle and sell Lean Hogs for a trade that runs May though to August. The reason for this trade is seasonal. That is, there is a pattern that tends to repeat itself each year. Heading into mid-year, Cattle slaughter tends to be high while Hogs are at the opposite end. But that pattern reverses itself when we are past mid-year and looking towards the end of the year. That creates the spread movement. In the last 25yrs, buying April Cattle and selling Dec Hogs, has lost money only 3 times. 22 out of 25 is not bad. Optimized data of course, but there is a pattern there! The average profit in that time has been over $3500 for one spread. You can also do this spread in nearby contracts, eg Dec Cattle. It’s a volatile one though. Drawdowns can be, what’s the word…interesting. It makes this trade more about getting entries correct. An early to mid-June pull back has happened in more years than not. Waiting for that can give a better entry time. Caveat: it ain’t that simple. Spread trading takes knowledge, support, patience and trade management, but the gems are there when we look in the right place. One last thought: you cannot use 'beef stew' as a password. It's just not stroganoff. - Please follow and like for more trade ideas and learny stuff! -
CME:LEZ2021Education
by TheTradarien
2
LEM2021. Live Cattle. The saga continues.I have been following live cattle for a while. I chose it because it seemed like a really random market that I wouldn't be bringing any market prejudices along with me, therefore, might help myself to trade it with a clear eyes. I feel like I am seeing the market clearly, at least to the best of my present ability, and that live cattle is in a very favorable position to limit your downside and maximize your upside. For the love of god, at least take this in your sim account so you can be a little more sensitive to it's movements.
CME:LEM2021Long
by emehoke
Live Cattle Update. Small bounce could become big bounce.We got a small bounce at an important level, and now we are waiting for the trendline to break which would tell us it could become a big bounce. At the moment we have price hesitation which turned into a pro gap. That's a good bullish sign. But, this downtrend has been very strong, and I'm not willing to be a minute trader for LC. This causes me to wait for the larger time frame candles to show verified momentum. I'm looking for a big green leg candle on the daily before I get involved. Maybe I will change my mind, but I feel pretty secure with that strategy.
CME:LEM2021Long
by emehoke
Lean Cattle. Convincing myself it will go higher.It looks really good to me. I have an incredible lazy streak. It's possible this only appeals to me so that I can take some action and stop paying attention every day. Obviously, this is not the ideal characterization of a profitable trader, but I'm still doing a good job convincing myself it's a high probability outcome. Sooner or later I'm going to become clever enough to be useful to myself. But, then you might not like me anymore :(. --- I could also reason one of two things: 1) Price has come down this far : It's a good buy. 2) Price has come down this far: It could go lower. Unless, there is something like a cow-pox I feel like prices should go higher. I don't think there will be a cow-pox. Just using it as a stand in for 'big-unpredictable-market-specific-catastrophe'. So door #1 says the .5 level is good enough for me, and I'm thinking it will go back up. In fact, I don't think it will go down, and I think it's a good price possibly for the next full calendar year. Door #2 says I think it's possible price comes lower, and I think it will come lower. ---- I really don't think #2 is the door most people will open. I think the idea that price might not be this low for another entire year would be enough to make any forward thinking meat distributer want to use at least a good portion of there liquidity in the markets over the next few days. Actually this has been happening as evidence from what the consolidation is telling us.
CME:LEM2021Long
by emehoke
Traditional|LE1!|Long and shortLong and short LE1! Activation of the transaction only when the blue zone is fixed/broken. The author recommends the use of anchoring fixed the blue zone, this variation is less risky. If there is increased volatility in the market and the price is held for more than 2-3 minutes behind the activation zone after the breakdown, then the activation of the idea occurs at the prices behind the activation zone. Working out the support and resistance levels of the consolidation zone. * Possible closing of a trade before reaching the take/stop zone. The author can close the deal for subjective reasons, this does not completely cancel the idea and is not a call to the same action, you can continue working out the idea according to your data, but without the support of the author. + ! - zone highlighted by the ellipse is a zone of increased resistance, in this area there is a possible reversal for a correction, please take this factor into account in this transaction. The "forecast" tool is used for more noticeable display of % (for the place of the usual % scale) of the price change, I do not put the date and time of the transaction, only %. The breakdown of the upper blue zone - long. Breakdown of the lower blue zone - short. Working out the stop when the price returns to the level after activation + fixing in the red zone. Blue zones - activation zones. Green zone - take zone. Red zone - stop zone. Orange arrows indicate the direction of the take. Red arrows indicate the direction of the stop. Priority - The value of the priority parameter implies the author's subjective opinion about the more likely activation zone on this idea, this does not mean that this idea will be 80% activated by this parameter, the purpose of the parameter is to provide for the risk of the inverse of the zone parameter. Example: "Priority Long: So the author inclines more in the direction of the activation zone open long trades, in this case, when reaching the activation zone in short you should be very careful, because this area may be highly likely to be punched about the breakdown/do not get to take/activate transaction from go to stop." Please consider this parameter if you use my ideas. SUM PNL: This parameter displays the total % of all closed ideas of the "new" format (according to the author) for this sector at the time of publication of the idea. The calculation is very "clumsy" just the sum of the profits of all the ideas, based on this indicator, you can more accurately assess the risks when working with my ideas of this sector. I present you the construction of the idea, you can use it yourself as you like based on your subjective view and risks, the calculation of the PNL indicator is carried out only on transactions that the author closed on TV in manual mode or by take. P.S Please use RM (risk management) and MM (money management) if you decide to use my ideas, there will always be unprofitable ideas, this will definitely happen, the goal of the system is that there will be more profitable ideas at a distance.
CME:LE1!
by Henry_Ross
14
LEJ2021. Live Cattle Daily. In the golden pocket.Any dedicated live cattle traders, I would love to hear your take! If you are there is no need to read what I have below. You would probably find it very stupid. ------ I do not understand the fundamentals surrounding this market as far as when the high prices are. Doing a quick google search I see from the first image brought up that typically live cattle is falling right about now and getting ready to rebound. We have been rising steadily for a while, so I think it's safe to say the market is not behaving to expectation. That makes me a little uncertain, but I am falling back on TA entirely for any decisions here. I hate to buy anything before I see the momentum in my favor, but if I ever were to buy a zone, this wouldn't be a bad one. I have picked this apart thoroughly, and as non-biased as possible, and I think I did a really good job so I hope you enjoy. ------- One thing I notice is that whenever I say "this wouldn't be the worst" or "this wouldn't be a bad one" historically it has been a bad one. If this goes against me I will have to make some conscious decisions to change just a little in that department. ---------
CME:LEJ2021Long
by emehoke
Cattle and Corn: An Obscure Spread With Interesting NumbersAn interesting spread here. I’ve traded this one on and off over the years. It’s a long-term hold and some years this spread just has a nice smooth trend. Think of this spread as a cost of carry, in a way. Or perhaps: wholesale versus retail is a better way to look at it. Feeder Cattle (young moo cows) + Corn (food) + time equals Live Cattle (grown up ones). It’s like that math parents do when say “do you realize how much it costs to have a teenager and send him/her to college?” In futures we can trade that, for cattle and corn at least. We can see where base cost of production is over or undervalued and with a bit of patience, these kinds of trend trades reveal themselves. This one has a great seasonal pattern. That is, it tends to repeat itself each year. Not every year, but most years. Research says selling Feeders and Corn and buying live Cattle can be quite profitable. On average, an entry late April and exit late Sep has been profitable every year since 2005. From 2006 onwards: 100% strike rate, average profit $3374 for one spread. Formula: (+2*400*Live Cattle) – (1*50* Corn) – (1*500 * Feeders) Essentially it says one contracts of feeders (50000lbs) plus one of corn (5000 bushels) makes about two live cattle (80000lbs). Some also trade a 1 Corn: 2 Feeders and 4 Live Cattle. Its’ essentially halving the corn requirement from above. Remember, there are no rules in spread trading. Our job is to find the correlations and trade them. Risk: Hmmm, there are two ways to look at that. The stats say the worst drawdown in the last 15yrs in $5400 and that is about double of most other years in that time. So it’s not a small risk trade. The other way is to eyeball a chart. That recent move from +2000 to 0 did not take long at all. Unless get a well-timed entry, then stops will have to be wide - a few thousand at least (about 3.3 times ATR). It’s one where you would start with a wide stop and bring it in should you see some equity. Entries and exit need finesse since it’s not an exchange traded spread. Experienced spreaders only, with knowledge of seasonality. In you are new to these kinds of spreads, mark it down as market knowledge and come back for a look later on.
CME:LEJ2022Long
by TheTradarien
Continuous Live CattleWeekly Cont. Cattle: The shaded boxes represent the previous 4 years of price action. Observe: Price trends up into early February. Cattle broke resistance against the (dashed) downtrend line and is attempting to break above the (solid) uptrend parallel line. A break above the solid up trend parallel will be fighting the larger structure of a long term bear. **When it makes a swing low, the reaction high has failed to take out the up trending parallel line above. After marking the swing high, price action eventually moves lower taking out its current up trending line. Can Feb or April Cattle buck the trend? A solid move above the current parallel would target the $130 area at the next light gray uptrend parallel. A move lower targets the lowest solid uptrend parallel between 95 and 100. End of March and July will be time frames to watch for potential cycle highs or lows. **Put/Call Spreads or 3 way spread may be ideal at this current area**
CME:LE1!
by mtb1980
1
View on Live Cattle (26/11)Likely to see price drop in this and next week Looking for potential buying set up at the start of 2nd week of december. remain bullish bias unless price breaks below 102.5 Disclaimer: The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. We may or We may not take the trade. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. I am not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activity
CME:LE1!Long
by imjmesl