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Bitcoin Cycles Explained (Elliott Wave Theory + NVT Indicator)Hello Traders. In this post, we are going to revise our Elliott Wave counts and also go into a deeper dive of how we can interpret the current decade cycle for Bitcoin. I am going to do my best and divide each section by using past cycles, Elliott Wave Theory, and one indicator in combination to help validate my point of view on where Bitcoin might be heading for the next cycle. If you haven't already, please do make sure to read my post on parabolic patterns and how I was able to predict the the 2021-2022 bullrun: As stated above, the three factors that I will be covering on how we can dissect the next Bitcoin cycle is: 1) Cycles (growth cycles according to the halving cycles) 2) Elliott Wave Theory + Market Psychology 3) NVT Indicator (Network Value to Transaction) --------------------- 1) Cycles (growth cycles according to the halving cycles): One of the biggest phenomenon to ever occur in the current financial market period is that Bitcoin has been working in a relatively algorithmic parabolic trend where cycles have been continuing in a compounding matter in terms of percentages. That begs the question, “are we going to assume that all past cycles will rhyme with the current cycle?” This is impossible to answer, but, we can take the time and try to predict cycles within cycles by discerning the growth phase of each cycle, and whether it will transition into something new, or, continue the fashion of rhyming cycles of the past. The best way to interpret Bitcoin's price action is via the logarithmic chart which shows the overall square root function of each cycle. Simply put, realistically, the log chart is slowing down on the longer timescale, meaning that Bitcoin is now currently in its fourth phase as shown in the chart - price maturity and store of value. Price maturity is shown in most stock models, meaning that markets do not move in straight lines and will always eventually have an end to all finite things, including price action. This chart also helps support the 'lengthening market cycle' theory, which is based on how fast the growth of a stock is shown. This idea works for Bitcoin in respect to how we cannot just continue to grow exponentially, which can then be backed by the Elliott Wave theory, which we will discuss later down below. As stated above, the cause of these growth cycles are what I believe (and the only way we can divide it by) is done via Bitcoin halvings, which leads to a supply shock and a subsequent rally, as that has been the only way we have observed in the past decade. As stock markets have their own cycles, mostly in the form of recessionary phases, Bitcoin works more along the line of where scarcity is the main factor. As history has shown that with a lower supply, the demand for the coins go higher, meaning that the fundamental value of Bitcoin may go down, and that becomes more of a 'Store of Value' asset, just like gold. Although this chart is just an observation and educated guess, we can still assume that this chart is realistic and a probable scenario as it is calculated with a balance of market psychology, technicals, and overall market cycle theories. If we also apply Murphy's law, we will also have to assume that all good things will come to an eventual end for a cycle. This is why I have divided each trading period in terms of Bitcoin's halving cycles, as that has been a great psychological indicator of how markets have reacted accordingly to price action in terms of time. The four cycles I have witnessed, and witnessing now in regards to the evolution of the markets, can be divided as such: a. 1st Growth Cycle - Use Case Discovery 
b. 2nd Growth Cycle - Price Discovery
 c. 3rd Growth Cycle - General Institutional Interest
 d. 4th Growth Cycle - Price Maturity (Store of Value); Retail Interest The first use case discovery is essentially the bare bones of the beginning of a trading period. The use-case discovery phase helps the sole investors create impactful change in the organization by bringing all investors together to collaborate. This format identifies high-value, low-effort use-cases and ensures these initiatives are being driven from the bottom-up rather than top-down. This is what has sparked the idea of currency replacement, or, as an alternative to the banking system as explained in the White Paper. The second growth cycle is what is known as the price discovery phase. Price discovery is the over balancing result of the interaction between sellers and buyers, or in other words, supply and demand outweighs one another. This is the next process of finding out the price of a given asset or commodity and gives higher interest to the early investors as the first resistance has been breached. There is a fair chance that this is a sound project and may be deemed as viable investment. Price discovery is the central function of all markets. It depends on a variety of tangible and intangible factors, from market structure to liquidity to information flow. The third phase is where we see enough people entering the markets to show that there is demand. As bitcoin moved higher throughout the year, the question was asked, “What makes bitcoin different now than the rallies we saw back in 2013 and 2017?” The biggest difference between this rally and past moves is that institutional investors have bought into the game, and this is seen as a crucial confidence boost for retail investors. The launch of CME Bitcoin futures in 2017, for example, and options in 2020, has helped spark massive institutional interest, and allowed investors to gain exposure to bitcoin without the regulatory, tax and custody issues facing the physical market. General institutional interest brought massive amounts of liquidity into the market by luring retail into the game as well. By this time, we can now see Bitcoin as solidified. This stage of the growth cycle is still considered to be the "early stages" of price action. The fourth phase is what is known as the price maturity phase, or store of value phase. This is where fundamentals have been solidified to the point of no return. Everyone knows what Bitcoin is. They may not necessarily know how it functions, but it's embedded within the society and more so even in cultures. We will see people interested in Bitcoin no matter what it brings to the table in terms of fundamentals. It is now considered a store of value, which is why it is widely regarded as the digital gold. The store of value concept does not mean it's a hedge against financial markets like many are deeming it to be, rather, Bitcoin should be seen as a highly liquid and a finite asset where people will try to find a price that is deemed "fair". Due to the finite aspect of it, this creates the idea of scarcity (i.e. one BTC = one lambo) and everyone wants a piece of the pie. This phase creates the largest liquidity within the markets making Bitcoin one of the easiest and most accessible assets to trade, relatively. As Bitcoin is now in its highly liquid state, this has created a much different and indirect investment philosophy than what we saw back in 2016-2018. Most people have "hoarded" to buy as much Bitcoin as they could back in that time period. Now, it's more of trying to find the "fair value" price and continued speculation on where Bitcoin actually might bottom for the current trading period. Due to this, we can see that the Bitcoin market has fully evolved into a huge liquid asset where the masses are trying to find the price floor, making it more difficult to trade. This in return can make the cycles longer. --------------------- 2) Elliott Wave Theory + Market Psychology Elliott Wave Theory has been a great tool to help increase the probability of predicting a larger cycle by using progressive actionary and corrective waves, in the form of 5 waves (actionary) and 3 waves (correction). There is no doubt that the Elliott Wave Theory has recently seen a surge of interest within the Crypto space and we are seeing an abundant amount of new traders trying to decipher Bitcoin through the Elliott Wave Theory. By having more people interested in trying to predict cycles via the Elliott Wave Theory, it then creates more impact on the herd psychology and efficacy of the theory, essentially increasing the percentage chance of a scenario playing out if many can agree to a collective scenario, also known as the self-fulfilling prophecy. The drawback is that it creates a plethora of open interpretations and can create a divide on which scenario is deemed viable. By understanding the theory inside out (please read my complete Elliott Wave Theory tutorial), you may have a great advantage in understanding what scenario is deemed best for you and the market.
 By adhering to the rules (rules must be met within the Elliott Wave Theory) and a set of guidelines provided by the Theory itself (the more guidelines the better - but doesn’t have to meet all guidelines, hence, this is what creates variations within wave interpretations and counts), you can then create multiple scenarios that may help you narrow down a sound scenario. Market Psychology is inherently tied to each wave structure of the motive and corrective waves. If you understand the rules and guidelines, you can then use that to your advantage by breaking down each wave degree according to market psychology. Each wave degree, both motive actionary and corrective, can be seen as a story as Ralph Elliott, the creator, said himself. How we can apply the psychology to each wave: a) Wave 1 (Actionary) + Wave 2 (Corrective): Buying on a wave 1 of the smaller degree has always been considered to be the best time to buy, usually by hindsight. Most of the general public will not be invested into Bitcoin during this phase, no matter how bullish one may be. This is usually where you will see the most fear related news within the markets when correcting for a wave 2. Most people will collectively think that the markets cannot recover as wave 2 can be the deepest of retracements within the five wave structure. Every correction within Bitcoin’s cycle is what we can call the ‘delusional phase’, or self-deception for that matter. The first bear market that Bitcoin has ever witnessed can be seen all the way back in 2010-2011, where the cycle degree of Wave 1 has corrected roughly 93% for Wave 2, wiping out an immense amount of profits that people bought on the way up of the previous cycle.
 A great example of that time period after that 93% correction has occured, can be that Bitcoin was seen by many as an insecure form of currency, had hacking issues, and just was overall considered to be a risky asset because of the sharp corrective nature of wave 1 to 2. At the bottom of 2015, we saw similar news along the lines of “Bitcoin is unsafe”, “Hacking issues”, “Bitcoin is not going to be able to recover”. The current bear cycle of 2022 can be deemed as the era of stablecoins, DEFI hacks, Mt. Gox payouts, and so forth. Wave 2’s are also very interesting in the idea that it is usually the period of time where people will usually say “I told you so”. Usually, the aftermath of wave 2’s will see even more bad news during this period of time. Due to the already harsh correction after wave 1, the price will usually not correct as hard even if the sentiment is worse than what we saw during the correction phase. A typical example you will see people saying during this time is, “This is the end for Bitcoin, and is going to $0”. b) Wave 3 (Actionary): This is a phase where everyone can be considered a genius and is not losing money. Most importantly, this is a period where most bears have already swapped to a bullish stance. The general public is almost always a step behind the markets because of this haze of euphoria. Due to this, this creates an extreme surge in price creating the characteristic of a Wave 3, where it will be the strongest movement in terms of time and price (most often, not always). This is a period of time where the general public is also where they are the invested into Bitcoin the most (or any other asset). You will typically see investors buying in or near the top of wave 3. This is where most people will question themselves, “this is not going to end, is it?” , “when will this parabolic trend end?”. This is where the wave 4 correction usually starts to come in once the general mass is asking the same question to themselves). c) Wave 4 (Corrective): This is surprisingly not the stage where most will call for an extreme bottom like we see in wave 2’s. Rather, due to the extreme rise of wave 3’s, most will deem this as the “healthy” correction stage because most will not sell their positions in anticipation for higher levels. The interesting aspect of market psychology is where the vast majority of people will hold through a wave 4, and will typically be in surprise when the wave 5 comes in, which helps re-confirm their bullish bias that the trend is going to continue. d) Wave 5 (Actionary): This is most often the stage where people will be even more invested into the asset, creating the highest liquidity vulnerability of any stage. All of the problems that occurred in wave 3 rolls over into wave 5 due to most people having already entered on a wave 3 or 4. Wave 5 usually offsets the anticipation of reconfirming the bullish bias that was created from the wave 3, hence, why most people will get burned the biggest after wave 5 ends. You will typically see mass psychology saying that, “this is going to $1M per Bitcoin”. The opposite can be applied on every bear market structure as well on the A and C waves of the larger ABC pullback for wave 2, where A and C are considered the actionary waves. As long you understand the 5 wave + 3 wave structures which can't be discussed in full detail within this post, you can then apply the exact opposite of what happens in a downtrend. For example, as stated above, I have mentioned that most people will buy into the top of actionary waves of 3 and 5. The reverse can be said for the downtrend - most people will sell off on the bottom of the actionary waves of 3 and 5 of the downtrend (also known as a capitulation phase), and instead of being euphoric like we see at top of waves 3 and 5, we see complete despair on waves 3 and 5 of the downtrend. --------------------- So this continues to beg the question, how can we take advantage of making sure we buy or sell at the right time according to the wave psychology structure?
 - Future of finance is seen at resistances, and Fear/Uncertainty is seen near supports, most typically. Remembering this will help indefinitely to your investment practices as the general public will usually be fearful during supports (Bears will also take advantage of trying to drive price down further), and euphoria during resistances or price discovery. After the 5th has ended, this is where the reset continues on each smaller 5 wave degree cycles. Those who have turned too bullish in waves 3 and 4 as stated above, the biggest mistake will be continuing to “buy the dip”, thinking it’s still part of that healthy correction like we saw for wave 4. 
 - Understand that if you know we are nearly finished with a 5 wave move, you are most likely transitioning into a bear market correction. Every correction of the bear market has been consisted of a 3 wave move as seen in the chart above. - By understanding that Bitcoin has gone through vicious cycles, we have countlessly seen this happen on every cycle. The question continues to be begged, will this finally be the beginning of an end to Bitcoin’s cycle, or, will this be the continued algorithmic continuation to newer highs? --------------------- 3) NVT Indicator (Network Value to Transaction This simple indicator has been one of the best predictors for accumulation zones for the past 10 years, and may be the only indicator you may ever really need to know when to buy Bitcoin. This answers my personal, "When Do I Buy Bitcoin?" question. The 'NVT' Indicator, is one of the most simple, yet highly effective indicators to date. This can be used to find ALL of the accumulation zones indicated by the overbought (red) and oversold (gray) territories. For simplicity: ⚪ Gray = Buy 🔴 Red = Sell The NVT indicator excludes the ‘FAIR PRICE’ of Bitcoin, and disregards the price at any given level. It is merely used as a metric to tell you that people may be accumulating in the GRAY zone due to the inactivity of the Bitcoin network. The current bear market has brought the NVT indicator BACK into the gray zone, further suggesting that even at $20,000 levels, you may be looking at possible BUYS for the next major cycle. This is also, effectively, a Dollar Cost Average (DCA) strategy, at best. It is the value of the market cap divided by the data transactions. In simpler terms, it is the number of Bitcoins in circulation divided by the number of Bitcoins transacted at the end of the day. In essence, the lower the value ratio, it can essentially give an extended warning signal that Bitcoin is most probably entering a period of inactivity and prolonged correction if it is in the gray zone. This can be translated to possibly as a buy signal. The reverse can be said about the NVT indicator going into the red zone. This means the activity is far higher and can indicate a signal that a prolonged period of overbought-ness can occur in the markets.

 As this is merely a preparation indicator, this can help you confirm a certain bias if used in conjunction with the Elliott Wave Theory. As with all indicators, this does have its drawbacks, hence, why it should be combined with other indicators and theories. The main drawback can be that it doesn't give a certain range of a time to "Buy" or "Sell". It is merely an indicator to tell you that, "hey it might be time to sell or buy Bitcoin". --------------------- 4) Scenarios (combining the Elliott Wave Theory and NVT indicator) 1st Scenario: If we are going to combine the rhyming cyclical moves for Bitcoin of the past decade, and speculate (assume) that we will see no real changes in corrections, we can assume that this cycle may have the biggest weight when combined with market psychology, with the added help of the NVT indicator, which is also in the gray zone. By assuming that the actionary cycle wave 3 has ended, we have to assume that the current move down is in a corrective wave. We can assume that wave 4 of the cycle degree is in its finishing stages. The correction can be either completed here, or, we can be seeing one more move down. As the current sentiment is collectively seeing this as a potential bottom zone, this can also help us stick to this scenario bias. This scenario in theory should work perfectly in retrospect if this scenario were to play out. For example, I mentioned that the biggest mistake of buying near the top of wave 3 happens the most by general investors. We are seeing to extent, actually, by a large degree, that most people are still holding their Bitcoins at a relatively high loss (can be backed by on-chain data by using the Unrealized Losses theory), and is still anticipating for more moves up. The next biggest mistake will be people continuing to hold their positions up until where wave 5 ends, or even worse, buying more near the top that will end abruptly short in this scenario. The best trading strategy for this scenario is to take profits accordingly and assume that the cycle is not going for a larger move to the upside, rather, assume that the larger 5 wave cycle is going to end near 100K as shown in the chart. 2nd Scenario: By simply adjusting our cycle waves, we can also arrange the degree waves to fit a certain bearish bias where the cycle wave 5 has ended. Adhering to the idea that we are in the market maturity phase, this can indicate that the markets are now already fully matured to the point where we can now go for the bigger correction that many may be looking for. Instead of seeing this as a shorter duration of a correction, we can also say that the current move down is just a larger 5 wave impulse creating an A Wave. The bear market rally should then follow suit, followed by another 5 waves for the larger C wave that can bring us down to levels that many would again deem Bitcoin dead. As for the NVT indicator, we can assume that Bitcoin is going to stay in the gray zone for a large extended time. 3rd Scenario: This scenario works on the idea of us being in a series of 1-2's. As we are working in a 10 year timespan, this is the least likely scenario. The only definitive backing to this scenario is that Bitcoin is going for a parabolic run that will be heavily nested for the next 5 years into uncharted territories well beyond 500K+. This would mean that Bitcoin would have to defy the next bear market for the running 5+ years or so. I hope this has helped you! All of these ideas are combined for educational purposes by using a theory that is hard to grasp technically. In the end, no one knows where Bitcoin is really heading, but we can help alleviate that by using some of the combined techniques of theories and technical analysis explained in this post. Enjoy, and be safe!
BNC:BLXEducation
by XForceGlobal
18
Bitcoin Macro Analysis - Log Curve 2024Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth curves displaying historic price movement since its existence. A lot of discussion now on whether the recent 'top' was a completion of our 4th bullrun or not, my observations below: What we know: - Price has touched the upper band of the Log curve at the end of a bullrun, this has happened 3 times in history - highlighted in red - Price has touched the lower band of the Log curve at the end of bear markets, this has happened at least 3 times in history - highlighted in green - Price % increases have gotten smaller over time with each bullrun, as is normal with a maturing asset on a Logarithmic scale - Bitcoin's length (time/bars) of bull runs have been getting longer with each one at 11 bars, 24 bars, 35 bars respectively - highlighted in yellow - Accumulation zones in green rectangles precede future ATH's Present situation & unknowns: - Price has not touched the upper band of the Log curve - highlighted in upper grey circle - Price has not touched the lower band of the Log curve - highlighted in lower grey circle - Bitcoin's bullrun, if peaked already, will have decreased in length (1st time in history) relative to past runs, sitting at 27 bars at the peak of 69k - highlighted in lower grey box - I think to break and go below the bottom band for a longer period of time (low low prices), then it should take un-foreseen negative news in the global economy; I believe current factors are being priced already since Nov/Dec 2021. If Bitcoin's bull run is still 'in process', then it currently fits the thesis and we could expect an ATH peak in late 2023 or 2024, somewhere around 55-66 bars to completion and a tap of the upper band on the Log curve. If this is the case, we do not want to see a touch of the lower band on the Log curve to further validate this, but it doesn't mean that can't happen. Or, you can argue we've seen our bullrun already and topped at 69k, many make this argument and it's perfectly fine. If this is the case, however, then in theory we would be nearing our end of a bear market bottom, around 16-17k or perhaps one more lower low to finally bottom on a touch of the lower band of the Log curve then it proceeds to accumulation zone in green box. Whichever side you are in belief of, the resulting action should be quite similar as an investor/trader imo at this point in time. Hope this is helpful! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! V
BNC:BLXLong
by cryptovatsik
2
Bitcoin long term analysis on weekly time frameBitcoin has reacted to the 19,000 range, if the candle closes green this week it will rise to the 24,000 level, where it will hit the downtrend line for the third time, if it can break the trend line, it will go to the 32,000 level, if not. If it breaks and returns from the trend line, it will hit the 19,000 range for the third time, and it may drop to the 12,000 range if it breaks that level. Thank you for your attention We are waiting for your comments.
BNC:BLXShort
by nikbonyad
Bitcoin (The Entire Wave Structure, EXCLUDING the 1st impulse)Friends, I hope your are all having a lovely start to your week. The attached chart is one that I have decided to add to the Bullish side and one I have personally been reluctant to post. It does do something that many will argue with, and I can accept their push back. It is the idea that Bitcoin is still missing a Grand Final 5th Wave top. The way we get there is by excluding the first impulse of the infancy of Bitcoin. The rationale behind it being excluded is simple: There was little to no volume, no real world on ramps, & little to no adoption. When you exclude the move from $.01 to $30, and actually start the count at $2 you can actually draw out the Grand Elliot wave cycle with each sub waves quite easily. Please note: I have shifted the Grand cycle waves (1,2,3,4,5 in Bold Black) over to the right to reveal the sub waves (light Black 1,2,3,4,5 and light red for ABC corrective waves) that make up the larger waves. Suffice it to say, the Grand waves do align with the key tops and bottoms. Lastly, I included the MONTHLY RSI/Stochastic to reveal where each major low occurred. We are currently there now. These readings are found at the 2nd corrective wave low, the 2nd corrective wave low in our Grand 3rd wave, and now at what could possibly be the bottom of our 4th wave low. EACH LOW ALSO COINCIDED WITH A RETEST OF THE .786 FIB. So all technical factors have been satisfied. While this is a highly contrarian view, it is one that I will post with ZERO shame. I am not here to acquiesce a position to please others, but merely post the facts on the chart. :)
BNC:BLX
by JTheretohelp1
1
BraveNewCoin BLX - Short Opportunity 📈Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📉📈 Why follow me on Trading View? 🎯 CryptoCheck team has 20 years + combined trading experience 🎯 Established 2019 and not going anywhere 🎯 Ev here - been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩‍🏫 In today's chart - BraveNewCoin. This is short opportunity, I have identified an easy short setup with low risk on BLXUSDT. Thank you for visiting ! Please show your appreciation for this post by hitting Like👍 and Follow 📢 _________________ 👀 Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎 👍Hit like & Follow 🔔 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
BNC:BLXShort
by CryptoCheck-
32
Updated BLX possible Bitcoin bottom indicationsAs mentioned previously, the last two bear market lows are the only time that the weekly RSI has closed in oversold. The RSI and Stoch RSI structures at that point, and leading out, are the same. And this all appears to align with the most recent breakdown into oversold just a couple of months back, in June. We can also note a pullback after RSI rallied out of oversold in the previous occurrences. This would be the likely stage we are in if the chart continues to follow those previous bear markets. The orange line is the weekly 200 MA. The green line is the weekly 50 MA and the blue line is the weekly 100 MA. The 50 has crossed below the 100 in the previous two bear markets AFTER price has bottomed. We appear to be a week away from that same cross right now which means that IF the chart continues to follow the previous two bear markets, then we shouldn't see a low below the June 2022 swing low. Finally, we can note that the hash ribbons indicator at the bottom of the screen has flashed the recovery lime green bubble after flashing the grey capitulation bubble. So, while past results don't guarantee the same in the future, there are a lot of similarities in the same areas. We will see if they play out the same way this time or not.
BNC:BLX
by Chris_Inks
7
A Bullish ScenarioI will start this off that yes BTC can fall lower and I've outlined previously that 12k~ is probably an area id start buying again if the market crashes (however I have some exposure here in case I'm wrong) - I do believe we may see in the future major detachment from physical metals and BTC from major index's at a time people least expect it - As I'm of the belief that BTC will end up being a commodity like gold and silver and algos will start pushing all 3 very high.
BNC:BLXLong
by Swoop6
The Rally not over until $30k $40kWhile we are in choppy market or bear market rally, stock indices like SP500 almost hit 50% of retracement and people already started bearish to new lower lows. I half agreed with them but Bitcoin doesn't give me a confirmation of its bear market rally top. This seems like Bitcoin needs at least 0.236 or 0.382 retracement between $30k to $40k range. Let's not forget we have midterm election upcoming. This gives me confident this market could drag to November. Just my prediction, folks. Happy trading.
BNC:BLX
by thienlovv
6